Potential for cancellation of Tokyo 2020

rfisher said:
Who cares about fans in the stands when you're watching from your sofa???

It's only the local hospitality and entertainment venues who will be really, really sad as they will lose that revenue from non-athlete spectators.
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I don't think it's as simple as that (nor do I think intense fandom watching unattended events is truly comparable).

Let's take, for instance, Simone Biles, the most famous and promoted of the US women athletes at these Olympics.

At her first press conference, at least one reporter will ask: "Simone, is it going to be difficult for you to compete with no fans in the stands?"

To which, Simone will reply, "Naturally my team and I would love to compete in front of fans. But we've trained our whole lives for this event and we have to accept whatever the IOC and the Japanese government have decided is best for the athletes and the country."

Next stop, Simone's first event, during which at least one commentator will say, "Simone is accustomed to loud cheering audiences. Do you think an empty arena will have any effect on her performance?"

The answer will be, "No. Simone exists in a world all her own."

Then Simone performs her first skill. If she does it perfectly, a commentator will say, "Simone exists in a world all her own. A world of perfection."

If she doesn't do it perfectly, a commentator will say, "We'll never know if Simone was affected by no fans in the stands. She's so used to massive crowds cheering for her. Not having them here could have made a difference."

Either way, at the press conference, at least one reporter will ask: "Simone, was it difficult for you to compete with no fans in the stands?"

To which, Simone will reply, "Naturally my team and I would have loved to compete in front of fans. But we've trained our whole lives for this event and we take great pride (or full responsibility) for our accomplishments today."

So no matter what happens, the lack of fans colors the story, and the people watching from their sofas are going to be confronted by the silent reproof: no fans=pandemic.

I don't know if the corporate sponsors prefer no fans to half filled arenas with polite Japanese mask wearing fans creating
a kind of Carnival Of Souls vibration. But I do know US corporations look to the Olympics for combinations of US exceptionalism and feel good stories. This Olympics should have given them a, "We made it through the storm safely. Now go and buy our product," moment. Crowds of cheering fans help illustrate that message. Empty stands negate it.

My guess is there'll be a steady erosion of sofa fans. But that's just a guess (whereas I might run out and buy a family farm just so I could bet it on my Simone commentary).
 
The trajectory of case numbers in Japan is really not good. I don't think they would cancel at this stage, but if numbers keep climbing at the same rate as they look like they are now and have during Japan's other surges, case numbers could be right up there with some of their highest numbers by the time this event is over.

I guess at least people would have something great to watch on TV while not going out.
 
Reinsurers likely to face $300-400M in Tokyo Olympics losses: Fitch

Global reinsurers are likely to face $300 million to $400 million in losses from ticket and hospitality refunds due to Japan’s decision to bar spectators from the Tokyo Olympics, Fitch Ratings Inc. said in a report released Monday.
But this is only 10% to 15% of the losses reinsurers would have faced had the Olympics been canceled and should have a limited impact on earnings, leaving capital and ratings unaffected, Fitch said.

Fitch estimates the total insurance coverage for the Olympics to be about $2.5 billion, including $1.4 billion purchased by the International Olympic Committee and the Tokyo Organizing Committee, $800 million by broadcasters, and $300 million by sports teams, sponsors, hospitality and others.

“We believe reinsurers would bear most of the losses arising from this cover given that high-severity exposures are typically heavily reinsured,” Fitch said in the report.

Cancellation of the Olympics would have led to the largest ever insured losses from a single event cancellation, putting pressure on reinsurers’ earnings already hit by the pandemic and U.S. casualty reserve deficiencies, and following several years of high catastrophe losses, Fitch said.

With the Olympics now set to go ahead, though without spectators, reinsurance payouts should be mostly limited to losses from ticket sales and hospitality, the report said.

Given the reserves that reinsurers had already set aside for potential losses, this should not materially affect earnings, Fitch said.

Renewed event cancellation policies now exclude communicable disease coverage, which should shield insurers and reinsurers from losses due to further lockdowns in the coronavirus pandemic or future pandemics.
However, event cancellation policies are typically multiyear, so it will take time for the existing risk exposures to run off, Fitch said.
 
A bad sign or the testing working as planned? You decide...
yhoo.it

Athlete Tests Positive for Covid-19 as Tokyo Olympics Opening Nears

An athlete and five Olympic workers, mostly contractors, have tested positive for coronavirus.
yhoo.it yhoo.it
reut.rs

Coronavirus cases at the Tokyo Olympics

The Tokyo 2020 Olympics, postponed for a year due to the pandemic, is being held under unprecedented conditions including tight quarantine rules to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
reut.rs reut.rs
Not sure about the reporting in the Reuters link: I've not heard of any of the Israeli athletes testing positive, though someone working security reportedly did.
 
A major Australian athlete, tennis player Alex De Minaur, has tested positive and now has been denied entrance to the Olympics.

Pretty devastating for him and his fans.

There’s probably going to be a bit of this happening now that the mandatory testing is starting up.
 
It's impossible to track the number of people who are at an Olys. The bubbles for SA, Nats, and Worlds worked b/c of a small number, staggered arrival times, dedicated transport to venues and specific pathways between hotel and rink (and hotel and rink were either connected or next door to the other). There were very few media members there, all were known and recognizable to the LOC, and they had to agree to the bubble, plus they were kept separate from the athletes and coaches, I believe.

There's no way anyone can be expected to do that with thousands of people from around the world. Certainly, the hotel can't be expected to on their own (I question why they didn't make certain hotels all-Oly and block for non-Oly guests). And I'm puzzled as to how they thought Oly visitors wouldn't be mixing with non-Oly visitors at the airport/planes. Unless they flew on a dedicated plane and arrived through a dedicated airport space, assumption of potential exposure needs to be built into the equation. Isolate and test, and keep testing throughout the event.
 
One of the things that puzzle me is why the athletes are even being allowed to stay in hotels. There is an Olympic Village. If they had been required to stay there, a system of post-arrival isolation and smaller bubbles might have worked better.
 
Vagabond said:
One of the things that puzzle me is why the athletes are even being allowed to stay in hotels. There is an Olympic Village. If they had been required to stay there, a system of post-arrival isolation and smaller bubbles might have worked better.
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Do they even have enough room in the athletes village for all of the athletes at once, or even for the maximum # of athletes who would need accommodation while isolating post-arrival ahead of their competition + the athletes in the midst of their competition?

It does seem to me that having, at minimum, designated hotels for post-arrival isolation would havr made more sense. Guess we'll see soon enough how all of these plans worked, or didn't work.
 
starrynight said:
A major Australian athlete, tennis player Alex De Minaur, has tested positive and now has been denied entrance to the Olympics.

Pretty devastating for him and his fans.

There’s probably going to be a bit of this happening now that the mandatory testing is starting up.
Click to expand...

Well, if ever there was a time to say the Olympics is about the survival of the fittest...Just awful. :( You train all those years and then you might just have bad luck (i.e., did everything right to protect yourself) and test positive and it's over. :(
 
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Karen-W said:
Do they even have enough room in the athletes village for all of the athletes at once, or even for the maximum # of athletes who would need accommodation while isolating post-arrival ahead of their competition + the athletes in the midst of their competition?
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I have no idea, but it isn't as if this were a new and unexpected problem. Something could have been done a year ago.

The Tokyo Olympic village consists of newly constructed buildings; perhaps it could have been feasible to supplement that with existing student housing. The organizers of the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles did not construct a new Olympic Village. They used existing student housing to house the athletes, and their successors will do so in 2028.
 
Crazy to think that these athletes train all their lives only to be stopped before they even get a chance to compete because of the YKW. That's heartbreaking. I'm not surprised at the gong show, it's painfully obvious even with an extra year that not enough effort and thought went into how to proceed safely.
 
Tokyo, and the airport, is on a bay. They should have booked several cruise ships with special ventilation systems and shuttled the athletes there while they waited for post-arrival negative tests for a few days. Staggered arrival windows, too.

It seems like the plans basically amount to hoping for the best.
 
Coco said:
Tokyo, and the airport, is on a bay. They should have booked several cruise ships with special ventilation systems and shuttled the athletes there while they waited for post-arrival negative tests for a few days. Staggered arrival windows, too.

It seems like the plans basically amount to hoping for the best.
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It strikes me that the plans also assumed that overseas visitors would adhere to Japanese cultural norms. Or do younger Japanese people do fist bumps these days? :unsure:
 
I'm stunned that the IOC is hosting a welcome party for Thomas Bach with 40 people. :wall:

Bach on Saturday drew a fresh round of ire amid reports that the Tokyo Olympic organizing committee plans to host a welcome party for Bach on Sunday evening with 40 guests, including high-profile politicians.

Critics responded online to reports of the welcome event by noting that the state of emergency urges members of the Japanese public not to gather in large numbers.

Among those invited are Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Tokyo Olympic organizing committee president Seiko Hashimoto and former Olympics chief Yoshiro Mori, who resigned earlier this year over sexist remarks he made about women, according to a report Saturday by NHK.
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Vagabond said:
I have no idea, but it isn't as if this were a new and unexpected problem. Something could have been done a year ago.

The Tokyo Olympic village consists of newly constructed buildings; perhaps it could have been feasible to supplement that with existing student housing. The organizers of the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles did not construct a new Olympic Village. They used existing student housing to house the athletes, and their successors will do so in 2028.
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The dining facilities in most of the villages are usually large cavernous dining halls. I can't imagine the top athletes wanting to dine there. A hotel room has a lot more going for it in terms of limiting exposure.
 
skatfan said:
The dining facilities in most of the villages are usually large cavernous dining halls. I can't imagine the top athletes wanting to dine there. A hotel room has a lot more going for it in terms of limiting exposure.
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From a few athlete interviews that I've seen, the dining halls have plexiglass surrounding each seating position on 3 sides.
 
www.espn.com

Tokyo boss won't rule out cancellation of Games

A last-minute cancellation of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is still possible, the chief of the Games' organizing committee said. The announcement comes as more athletes tested positive for COVID-19.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
"We have agreed that based on the . . . situation, we will convene five-party talks again. At this point, the . . . cases may rise or fall, so we will think about what we should do when the situation arises."
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Oh, that will satisfy everyone! :rolleyes:
 
Vagabond said:
www.espn.com

Tokyo boss won't rule out cancellation of Games

A last-minute cancellation of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is still possible, the chief of the Games' organizing committee said. The announcement comes as more athletes tested positive for COVID-19.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Oh, that will satisfy everyone! :rolleyes:
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It's basically what they were saying all along. It's like when I tell my kid "We'll see" and they rightly point out that means No. :lol:
 
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