Interview with Duhamel: "I'm going to predict a Russian sweep of the [pairs] podium for Worlds"

[Karen-W]

I didn’t see his instagram, but there was discussion about a month ago that he was seen in Russia skating with Nadezda Labazina (Russian skater, looked quite promising about a year ago). Since then Labazina has been also seen with Sviatchenko recently so maybe it was a tryout with Windsor and it didn’t work out?

I don't either but it was mentioned this past week in the Aussie news topic.

 

[olympic]

3 Russian teams for sure, definitely Peng/Jin, most likely Sui/Han although we don't hear so much about their status, MT/M from Canada. There would be a slight outside chance if either of the two American teams can get into that top 6, BUT the big thing is if it's 6th, then the other team has to be right behind them in 7th, pushing one of those 6 teams even lower. If either US team can get into 5th, there's probably a great shot at earning 3 spots (NOTE: potentially earning 3 spots, as the third would have to be earned outright at Nebelhorn).

It could be close. Knierim/Frazier have never been scored by an international panel, though, so who knows where their PCS will be.

Della Monica/Guarise don't really seem to be a threat to the US teams this season and will probably battle to be in the top 10 with the Germans, Austrians, and quite possibly even the Japanese.

Thanks. Off the top of my head, that tracks my remembrance of who was tops going into 2020 Worlds. Although with S/H injured and an unknown, DM/G down further, I/B no longer a couple, and the PRK team another unknown, it would appear that the US has a slightly better shot at 3 spots.

 

[Brenda_Bottems]

In a fair competition,The Knierims will eclipse the number three Russian team.

-BB

 

[Karen-W]

In a fair competition,The Knierims will eclipse the number three Russian team.

-BB

That would be a neat trick since Chris isn't skating anymore.

I can't say that I agree with the idea, in a fair competition, K/F would eclipse the number three Russian team - at least not based on what we've seen out of the top 4 Russian teams and K/F in the last month. K/F still have work to do - their SBS jumps were barely in the same part of the rink, lol. But, the improvements they made in the 2.5 months between SkAm and USNats were pretty impressive so I'm hopeful that we'll see even more improvements in the 2 months between USNats and Worlds. We'll have to see but I don't think they are better than a clean T/M, B/K, M/G or even P/K.

Now, make this statement in a year and I might agree with you.

 

[Tinami Amori]

If S/H show up in Stockholm prepared then a Russian sweep is out of the question because S/H are that good. But, if S/H don't make it to Stockholm, which is a real possibility IMO, then is a Russian sweep likely? Probably.

I think so also.

 

[olympic]

That would be a neat trick since Chris isn't skating anymore.

I can't say that I agree with the idea, in a fair competition, K/F would eclipse the number three Russian team - at least not based on what we've seen out of the top 4 Russian teams and K/F in the last month. K/F still have work to do - their SBS jumps were barely in the same part of the rink, lol. But, the improvements they made in the 2.5 months between SkAm and USNats were pretty impressive so I'm hopeful that we'll see even more improvements in the 2 months between USNats and Worlds. We'll have to see but I don't think they are better than a clean T/M, B/K, M/G or even P/K.

Now, make this statement in a year and I might agree with you.

Could K/F beat the Canadians, MT/M or P/J?

 

[Karen-W]

Could K/F beat the Canadians, MT/M or P/J?

Based on what we have seen from K/F vs those other two, I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility. But there is just so much that is unknown. MTM have had limited access to ice for much of the winter - where are they now vs when the SC Challenge was filmed is a great question. P&J have always been iffy in their SBS jumps and they were underwhelming at CoC but that was 3.5 months ago. And then, as others have mentioned K/F haven't even been in front of an international panel so how would the judges rate them? I tend to err on the side of "probably well" if only because K/K always scored well internationally when they landed their jumps and C/J also score well internationally - people might not care for Jenni & Todd Sand for whatever reasons (happily married? politics?) but I think they have a solid foundation they learned from John Nicks which they are passing down to the current generation of skaters and we see it reflected in how well their teams do score internationally when they land their jumps.

 

[puglover]

Meagan Duhamel seems to feel the twist is the deciding factor with so many teams doing basically the same thing. That favours the Russian teams and K/F. S/H will need to hit all their elements to win IMO.

 

[Colonel Green]

Meagan Duhamel seems to feel the twist is the deciding factor with so many teams doing basically the same thing. That favours the Russian teams and K/F. S/H will need to hit all their elements to win IMO.

Sui/Han’s twist is also excellent.

K/F, in terms of elements, are on track to be comparable with the other top teams. The in-between stuff isn’t quite at that level, but that’s just a matter of time and experience.

 

[BittyBug]

Meagan Duhamel seems to feel the twist is the deciding factor with so many teams doing basically the same thing. That favours the Russian teams and K/F. S/H will need to hit all their elements to win IMO.

If all other elements are hit, sure. But no team is so consistent that it's inconceivable for them to miss one or more elements. I believe someone once said the ice is slippery.

In terms of potential, no question all three Russian teams (regardless of who gets the third spot) are podium threats, along with Sui and Han if they show up. But they need to deliver on their potential.

 

[Karen-W]

I don't see K/F's twist as comparable to the top teams yet. At USNats, C/J and C-G/L had, IMO, better twists (vast improvement for C-G/L from past seasons, btw). I do think, given that K/K had a really great twist, their rapid improvements and coaching team, that K/F will wind up with an excellent twist which will put them in good stead to compete with the Russians and Chinese teams.

 

[miffy]

I think if K/F skate clean they will place very well for a first year. Good potential and both are very experienced and well known. I think they will get pretty good PCS.

I’m surprised people are writing off P/J and S/H. Have I missed something? I really like M/G but I wouldn’t predict they would beat the Chinese teams yet (unless both teams had big mistakes).

 

[Colonel Green]

I’m surprised people are writing off P/J and S/H. Have I missed something? I really like M/G but I wouldn’t predict they would beat the Chinese teams yet (unless both teams had big mistakes).

In the case of Sui & Han, I think it comes down to people not having seen them all year, so we have no idea what their readiness will be like.

I think M/G would probably be favoured against P/J at this point; they have a noticeable base value advantage and they’re more polished than during their debut season.

 

[mjb52]

I'm surprised too. I wonder if it's because Russia is the country holding the most visible competitions so they are the most on people's minds. Have S/H, P/J competed this year? I know there have been some competitions in China, I think, but not sure if they have participated.

 

[Colonel Green]

I'm surprised too. I wonder if it's because Russia is the country holding the most visible competitions so they are the most on people's minds. Have S/H, P/J competed this year? I know there have been some competitions in China, I think, but not sure if they have participated.

Peng & Jin won the Cup of China (by a lot) and looked solid. Sui & Han haven't been seen since 2020 4CC.

 

[olympic]

^Is the S/H injury documented and serious?

 

[Colonel Green]

^Is the S/H injury documented and serious?

Han had hip surgery over the summer so they sat out the fall so as not to rush back in. It’s entirely possible they’re all trained up and ready to go now, but we have no way of knowing.

 

[Sylvia]

We don't have a current season Pairs discussion thread in the Trash Can, so maybe we can continue using this GSD thread for 2021 pre-Worlds predictions/discussion now that the official entries have been published? http://www.isuresults.com/events/wc2021_Pairs.htm

@Karen-W has compiled (in the Kiss & Cry section) the projected starting order SP groups, based on the current ISU World Standings, that I've copied out below:

26 teams = 7 groups, 13 in the latter half

Group 7
CHN Peng/Jin WS 1
RUS Tarasova/Morozov WS 2
CAN Moore-Towers/Marinaro WS 3
RUS Boikova/Kozlovskii WS 4

Group 6
CHN Sui/Han WS 5
AUT Ziegler/Kiefer WS 7
ITA Della Monica/Guarise WS 8
RUS Mishina/Galliamov WS 11

Groups 4 & 5 - 1 of these will wind up as the last team in Group 4
USA Cain-Gribble/LeDuc USA WS 12
ITA Ghilardi/Ambrosini WS 13
CAN Walsh/Michaud WS 17
GBR Jones/Boyadji WS 22
GER Hocke/Kunkel WS 25

Groups 2, 3 & 4 - 1 of these will wind up as the last team in Group 2 (group 2 will also only have 3 teams in it)
FRA Hamon/Strekalin WS 28
CRO Petranovic/Souza Kordeiru WS 29
ISR Vernikov/Krasnopolski WS 30
HUN Chtchetinina/Magyar WS 31
JPN Miura/Kihara WS 33
CHN Wang/Huang WS 37
FRA Keriven/Pierre WS 45
NED Danilova/Tsiba WS 50

Groups 1 & 2 (3 teams each) - unranked:
BLR Lukashevich/Stepanov (previously represented RUS)
CZE Zhuk/Bidar (first season competing internationally for CZE after her release)
GEO Metelkina/Parkman (new team)
UKR Holichenko/Darenskyi (new team)
USA Knierim/Frazier (new team)

 

[Sylvia]

... I have seen more than 1 post alluding to the Italians not being in the best shape. What is going on with them?

Della Monica/Guarise competed 2 weeks ago at the Gran Premio Italia Finale in Bergamo and scored 188.63 (67.37 in SP, 121.26 in FS), placing 1st of 3 pairs - FISG recently uploaded videos:
SP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNaer-TYvAo
FS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfQ9fzJor8o

ETA that their scores from Nationals in December 2020 were about the same: 187.95 total (62.28 SP, 125.67 FS)

 

[yeslek]

I don't see K/F's twist as comparable to the top teams yet. At USNats, C/J and C-G/L had, IMO, better twists (vast improvement for C-G/L from past seasons, btw). I do think, given that K/K had a really great twist, their rapid improvements and coaching team, that K/F will wind up with an excellent twist which will put them in good stead to compete with the Russians and Chinese teams.

LOL CG-L twist was not better than K/F. Not even close!

 

[Sylvia]

I found a SP video for Anastasiia Metelkina & Daniil Parkman GEO (ISU bio: http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00110723.htm ) from when they performed their SP out of competion at the St. Petersburg Championships on December 10, 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdmSVDqek7Y (scored 63.15 according to the caption)
In their ISU TES Video Evaluation (22/02/2021) they scored very well: 37.46 (SP) and 62.73 (FS)
Cool side-by-side trick in practice! https://www.instagram.com/p/CLrRcc0IaLT/

These are the pairs that, AFAIK, have not competed in an "in person" competition this season:

Sui/Han CHN
Walsh/Michaud CAN
Miura/Kihara JPN
Petranovic/Souza Kordeiru CRO (have they competed domestically in Russia?)
Jones/Boyadji GBR - Zoe posted on Jan. 24 about "not being able to train properly on the ice in almost a year now" : https://www.instagram.com/p/CKb2X3Jr4JJ/

Moore-Towers/Marinaro (only competed virtually at Skate Canada Challenge: 71.04 SP, 135.18 FS, 206.22 total)

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

Also, I have seen more than 1 post alluding to the Italians not being in the best shape. What is going on with them?

Last season, Nicole dislocated her shoulder, and they spent most of the season playing catch-up. By Europeans, they'd managed to recover and achieved a 4th place.

This season, Matteo had a family bereavement, and consequently they withdrew from the first Gran Premio competition in Italy. Then, just before the Gran Premio Final they had a scary accident on a triple twist in training, which resulted in Nicole splitting her eyelid and getting taken to hospital for stitches/other checks, so their performances at that event were a bit restrained/careful.

Hopefully they can regroup before Worlds and have a great performance!

 

[Sylvia]

Lynn Rutherford asked Meagan Duhamel and Elena Bechke to share their thoughts about the pairs competition in Stockholm:

China’s Sui and Han must fend off three Russian pairs skating teams in Stockholm

All three Russian entries have a credible shot at returning their nation to the top of the podium for the first time in eight years, but China's Sui Wenjing and Han Cong stand in their way.

olympics.nbcsports.com

 

[nylynnr]

For the NBCSports article Meagan predicted: 1. Tarasova/Morozov 2. Boikova/Kozlovskii 3. Sui/Han