2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Tinycities]

ZingKol as Karen said would likely get 2nd or 3rd depending on who else skates. The issue is what would Torg or Max get, or can Ellie land her throws.

I agree that the press talk is just also adding to speculation and suspense. They’re always going to say their top skaters are skating because why give up their strategy.

 

[Karen-W]

delete - didn't mean to post the same response twice.

 

[skategal]

I already have plans to develop a sudden illness for Friday. Unavoidable. How could this have happened?

I'm going to catch it from you. It's very fast acting and I'll have to stay home on Friday too.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

If Ilia doesn't do SP and LP in the Team Event, I think the goose is cooked for USA getting Gold.

If both Ilia and ChoBat split, the US and Japan would be likely to be neck and neck, with Japan slightly more likely to come out on top, so certainly not “cooked”. Just not the favorite if both split.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Interesting. They didn't feel that way 4 years ago when the skate was on the other foot.

Do you mean 8 years ago? When the Shibs did both segments?

 

[fsfan2480]

I respect whatever Ilia decides. But he could literally do 3 clean quads, the 2 axels, triple/triples in the TE LP, likely come in 1st or 2nd, and treat it as a glorified practice session.

 

[Vagabond]

There's no way that ZingKol are beating GuigFab in the TE FD (if they do get the assignment). Their SB is about 3 points lower than GuigFab's and that's without the home Italian ice factor and a medal for Italy on the line.

"Home ice is slippery." -- Maurizio Margaglio, as told to Barbara Fusar-Poli.

 

[A.H.Black]

They won't put the "secondary" entry in the short, especially for dance and men, since the main reason for splitting is to give the "primary" skater time to rest. Plus, the short programs and RDs really count for more in the TE, so they won't save the primary skater.

I also think that the skaters (and NBC) have fun with the suspense.

I agree with all your points, however, I think the reason for putting the secondary skater in the free is a simple matter of points. If the secondary skater does the short program/rhythm dance it is possible for them to get as low as 1,2,3,4, or 5 points. If they save them for the free, the lowest points they can get is 6.

 

[skatfan]

Exactly. They thought splitting was great when it guaranteed them a place on the team. This time when they are already on the team, splitting is not an option.

They didn't say it wasn't an option to split. They said if asked to do both they would. Those are two different things.

 

[skatfan]

"Home ice is slippery." -- Maurizio Margaglio, as told to Barbara Fusar-Poli.

Especially with long skirts in the mix!

 

[Smiley0884]

So glad i'm retired now and don't have to worry about missing anything and can choose when i'll get some sleep. Still kinda sucks that the TE is in the middle of the night here but at least when the individual events start they will be in the late morning early afternoon.

That is the dream lol. I was on maternity leave during both 2014 and 2018 Olympics and it was glorious. I wasn't getting a ton of sleep at night anyway, and I could nap with the baby during the day if I needed to.

I took the second week of the Olympics off since my kids have school vacation week, and working remote next week, but I'm tempted to come up with a mysterious illness for the team event on Friday I can wake up by 3:45am for the rhythm dance, get my youngest on the bus at 7:20 right after pairs and just before the women's SP, then take a nap when it's over. The olympic planning is real lol.

 

[bardtoob]

They are really starting "tha Lympics" the same week as the Super Bowl? Ok.

 

[peibeck]

There's no way that ZingKol are beating GuigFab in the TE FD (if they do get the assignment). Their SB is about 3 points lower than GuigFab's and that's without the home Italian ice factor and a medal for Italy on the line.

You think the judges can't handle a Babs death stare?

I do agree G/F are likely to beat Z/K if that's the match-up though, especially after squeaking by F/G at Euros.

Honestly I'm more invested in the knife fight between Italy and Georgia for bronze than in the Japan/US tug of war for gold.

 

[Allskate]

I respect whatever Ilia decides. But he could literally do 3 clean quads, the 2 axels, triple/triples in the TE LP, likely come in 1st or 2nd, and treat it as a glorified practice session.

Or, get the quad axel out of the way and then do what he wants to do. The men's free is the final skate in the TE, so he would have a good idea of what he needed to do. It's possible that the limelight will shine even brighter if he's the one that takes the team from behind and brings them into first place to win the gold, all while showcasing great jumps, a back flip, and the raspberry twist. He may not be able to resist this if there's a good chance of it happening.

I agree with all your points, however, I think the reason for putting the secondary skater in the free is a simple matter of points. If the secondary skater does the short program/rhythm dance it is possible for them to get as low as 1,2,3,4, or 5 points. If they save them for the free, the lowest points they can get is 6.

ITA. As I said, the SP really counts for more than the free program. No way would they want to count on Andrew or Max in the SP. (Although, let's be real, it would not be good to have either Andrew or Max be the final American skater in the FP with the gold medal on the line.)

 

[PRlady]

According to @Karen-W ’s chart, Dav/Smol scores in the FD are not much behind LopBri or ZingKol. Now that might upset the applecart.

 

[Barbara Manatee]

Do you mean 8 years ago? When the Shibs did both segments?

No - I meant four years ago when C/B and H/D agreed ahead of time to say no to skating both segments.

 

[Vagabond]

Here's my bold prediction for the day.

The only discipline that USFS will split is Pairs. Neither team is a medal threat on its own, and either one would likely finish last in the Team Event Free Skating, so why not?

 

[tony]

Here's my bold prediction for the day.

The only discipline that USFS will split is Pairs. Neither team is a medal threat on its own, and either one would likely finish last in the Team Event Free Skating, so why not?

Except as has been circled repeatedly, France has a shot to get into the free skates. Last place not likely.

Even if Canada gets in, also potentially not going to be last.

 

[Allskate]

The only discipline that USFS will split is Pairs. Neither team is a medal threat on its own, and either one would likely finish last in the Team Event Free Skating, so why not?

Because I think all three American women have kicked butt, with all three of them losing only to each other or the Japanese over the past year. I think it's entirely possible that Alysa would prefer to split, and Amber really wants to skate in the TE. I think they've both earned it. (Isabeau has been amazing, too, but they can't have three women skate in the TE.)

Also, I would think that USFS (and NBC) would like to use the TE to hype up the depth of the American women for the individual event.

 

[BaileyCatts]

My cynical self thinks that ChoBat know the only way they are coming out of this Olympics with a Gold Medal is to win Team Gold because the Dance Gold is already lost. FB&C will win and ChoBat will be 2nd (let's get real .... we all know this; come back and quote me if I be wrong but seriously, barring falls, it's a done deal). But doesn't Evan have back issues? If I was Evan, I'd be worried about a sore back/injury competing 4 events so close together as well so would only do the RD and hope for the best on the rest of the Team.

My cynical self also thinks that Ilia will only do the SP so that USFS will split the Women since that is his good friend Amber's only shot at getting any medal at all. Which ticks me off since I'd pick Isabeau as the 2nd skater any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

So there.

 

[Allskate]

My cynical self thinks that ChoBat know the only way they are coming out of this Olympics with a Gold Medal is to win Team Gold because the Dance Gold is already lost. FB&C will win and ChoBat will be 2nd (let's get real .... we all know this; come back and quote me if I be wrong but seriously, barring falls, it's a done deal). But doesn't Evan have back issues? If I was Evan, I'd be worried about a sore back/injury competing 4 events so close together as well so would only do the RD and hope for the best on the rest of the Team.

My cynical self also thinks that Ilia will only do the SP so that USFS will split the Women since that is his good friend Amber's only shot at getting any medal at all. Which ticks me off since I'd pick Isabeau as the 2nd skater any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Evan addressed the back issue in today's press conference. Sounds like it is under control. Plus, it's not like they wouldn't be practicing if they weren't doing the TE. I think the overall energy required and the timing of the individual event is the bigger issue.

I would think that Ilia is not going to sacrifice an Olympic medal just because he is friends with someone. In any event, Ilia is friends with Amber, but he also is friends with Max, Andrew, and Isabeau. No matter what, one of his friends will skate in the TE. Also, if C&B aren't splitting, the women can split regardless of what Ilia does.

I think all three of the women are likely to beat anyone who isn't Japanese. But, Amber is the one with the highest base value and, even when she makes a mistake, she does well, including winning the GP Final last season. Alysa is the World Champion and current GP champion. Isabeau edged out Amber at Worlds (the only competition Amber lost last season), but Amber beat her just last month at Nationals. I am a big Isabeau fan and thought she was fantastic at Nationals, but I think it's fair to go with Amber and Alysa.

 

[kwanfan1818]

When the Shibs decided not to split, there was little difference between their record and H/D’s and C/B’s. There were no discussions about how any one these teams would have been the difference between Team gold and Team silver.

There was nothing comparable to C/B’s dominance and experience in this Olympic quad. And there’s a very real discussion about whether US has a chance of gold if C/B don’t skate both, especially if Malinin chooses to split. Also, if FB/C beat C/B in the TE RD, they could always pivot and skate the FD if FRA makes the Final, not for the chance of a team medal, but to stick the knife deeper before the individual event and try to play with C/B’s heads.

 

[Karen-W]

According to @Karen-W ’s chart, Dav/Smol scores in the FD are not much behind LopBri or ZingKol. Now that might upset the applecart.

DavSmo's season average is skewed by their 123.04 FD score from Trialeti Trophy. They were soundly beat by ZingKol at Finlandia.
If I was Team Georgia, I'd be praying that ChoBat do both segments because that reduces the point gap between them and the Italians in the FD.

Word out on the streets is that Rizzo is penciled in for the FS, with Grassl doing the SP. If that's accurate then Georgia could easily wind up with a big point difference to make up in the FS/FD phase because Grassl, both the French men and Cha all have the ability to easily out-score a clean Egadze in the SP.

 

[bwayrose7]

Because I think all three American women have kicked butt, with all three of them losing only to each other or the Japanese over the past year. I think it's entirely possible that Alysa would prefer to split, and Amber really wants to skate in the TE. I think they've both earned it. (Isabeau has been amazing, too, but they can't have three women skate in the TE.)

Also, I would think that USFS (and NBC) would like to use the TE to hype up the depth of the American women for the individual event.

I mean, if we start talking about broadcast/image as part of the strategy, then I think there's also an argument to rest Ilia and put Max in for the FS. There's likely no real placement difference for him vs. Torgs, but NBC would absolutely eat it all up, and I imagine USFS would love the story of a 5342-connected skater bringing home a medal "for all of them".

To be clear, I am absolutely NOT saying that's what I think they should do or even what I would personally do (I've found the PR focus on Max's personal tragedy to be crossing the line into off-putting), but just pointing out there are a lot of publicity angles that USFS and NBC could hype up, depending on what the team ultimately shakes out to be.

Honestly, I think Team USA was always going to have this problem this cycle once the Olympic schedule became clear. Their most "split-able" discipline (women's) is the one where splitting for rest isn't as big a factor, and their "dominant" disciplines were always going to have to decide whether to take the risk with short turnarounds or risk settling for silver. Personally, I think BaileyCatts is right that winning a team gold is more emotionally important to C/B than it is to Ilia, given their respective career timelines and current competition.

 

[Allskate]

I mean, if we start talking about broadcast/image as part of the strategy, then I think there's also an argument to rest Ilia and put Max in for the FS. There's likely no real placement difference for him vs. Torgs, but NBC would absolutely eat it all up, and I imagine USFS would love the story of a 5342-connected skater bringing home a medal "for all of them".

To be clear, I am absolutely NOT saying that's what I think they should do or even what I would personally do (I've found the PR focus on Max's personal tragedy to be crossing the line into off-putting), but just pointing out there are a lot of publicity angles that USFS and NBC could hype up, depending on what the team ultimately shakes out to be.

ITA about the media's exploitaton of the plane crash being off-putting, but it's not the same. I was talking about their skating. And the comparable issue would be whether it is Ilia or Max/Andrew. Amber and Alysa are very close in terms of their rankings and in their placement potential. Andrew beat Max by about 20 points in the free skate at Nationals (though they both have a good probability of being last in the TE FP), but Ilia crushed them both doing the easiest long program he's done in years. People are going to want to tune into the women in the individual event to see if they medal. It's obviously not the same for Max. It would take the most epic menning of all time for Max to medal.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

No - I meant four years ago when C/B and H/D agreed ahead of time to say no to skating both segments.

I don’t understand in what way this was the shoe being on the other foot at all then. They made a different choice, but saying the shoe is on the other foot would be that the circumstances have completely reversed.

 

[PRlady]

NBC has an embarrassment of riches this cycle. The giant that is Ilia surpasses Nathan. The women have a very good chance to medal for the first time since 2014. Dance is a narrower taste but will C/B do it is a genuine drama. Max’s story is truly heartbreaking.

Given all that, they probably care less about who skates the TE FS and more about can the U.S. take gold.

 

[Karen-W]

NBC has an embarrassment of riches this cycle. The giant that is Ilia surpasses Nathan. The women have a very good chance to medal for the first time since 2014. Dance is a narrower taste but will C/B do it is a genuine drama. Max’s story is truly heartbreaking.

Given all that, they probably care less about who skates the TE FS and more about can the U.S. take gold.

Uhm, we didn't medal in 2014 in the Women - Gracie came in 4th. Mirai was 4th in Vancouver. Last medal we had in the Ladies/Women's event was Sasha in 2006.

 

[MacMadame]

Indeed, I did!

I've left some skaters out as we have more information on who is doing which segments for some countries now, and left other skaters in since we don't know if the disciplines will be split yet.

Country

Men

SP Avg

FS Avg

Women

SP Avg

FS Avg

Pairs

SP Avg

FS Avg

Dance

RD Avg

FD Avg

USA

Malinin

103.25​

220.19​

Glenn

72.33​

141.22​

Kam/O'Shea

66.15​

125.35​

Chock/Bates

85.98​

127.77​

USA

Naumov

79.83​

150.15​

Liu

73.44​

138.23​

Zingas/Kolesnik

78.19​

119.47​

USA

Torgashev

78.21​

150.10​

JPN

Kagiyama

97.74​

188.77​

Sakamoto

71.98​

146.49​

Miura/Kihara

77.86​

143.00​

Yoshida/Morita

67.71​

96.81​

JPN

Sato

91.73​

185.78​

ITA

Grassl

87.76​

162.58​

Gutmann

67.30​

129.03​

Conti/Macii

74.74​

137.08​

Guignard/Fabbri

80.29​

122.01​

ITA

Rizzo

80.78​

151.45​

FRA

Aymoz

83.20​

155.76​

Schild

59.91​

113.13​

Kovalev/Kovalev

60.51​

105.25​

Fournier-Beaudry/Cizeron

83.10​

129.88​

FRA

Siao Him Fa

87.91​

171.10​

Lopareva/Brissaud

77.85​

118.02​

KOR

Cha

82.93​

157.72​

Shin

63.56​

126.69​

Lim/Quan

70.90​

110.12​

GEO

Egadze

90.01​

171.65​

Gubanova

64.87​

134.50​

Metelkina/Berulava

76.68​

136.39​

Davis/Smolkin

77.04​

117.81​

CAN

Gogolev

83.22​

161.77​

Schizas

59.00​

114.01​

Pereira/Michaud

67.05​

120.10​

Gilles/Poirier

82.61​

121.97​

CAN

Lajoie/Lagha

77.51​

119.39​

POL

Samoilov

75.78​

144.98​

Kurakova

55.37​

109.70​

Chtchetinina/Wozniak

57.13​

104.79​

Dovhal/Kulesza

58.99​

88.66​

GBR

Appleby

66.61​

113.49​

Spours

50.70​

86.44​

Vaipan-Law/Digby

59.57​

108.68​

Fear/Gibson

82.36​

123.60​

CHN

Jin

86.67​

156.91​

Zhang

60.48​

116.10​

Sui/Han

74.37​

128.20​

Wang/Liu

64.89​

101.40​

Thanks! Is there a reason for the different colors? I think green is who is scheduled for the SP/RD? But what's the red?

Recovery is very critical at their age to get to the Olympics, but once they’re there staying permanently warm has it’s advantages.

Could be but competing is not practice. I worry about their bodies giving out and screwing up their chance for Gold in the individual event.

If Ilia doesn't do SP and LP in the Team Event, I think the goose is cooked for USA getting Gold.

Nah, there are scenarios where both Dance and Men are split and USA still wins.

 

[PRlady]

Uhm, we didn't medal in 2014 in the Women - Gracie came in 4th. Mirai was 4th in Vancouver. Last medal we had in the Ladies/Women's event was Sasha in 2006.

That’s what I meant, it was the last time we had a serious chance to medal. No one thought we would in 2018 or ‘22.