2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Braulio]

Per Jackie Wong on twitter Laurence & Guillaume will skate the rhythm dance portion of the team event, that could mean France chances of qualifying to the free skates go up and Canada now faces not making it. Add that this will make the USA to maybe need Ilia do both programs to keep level with Japan.

I have Japan taking gold by a point or in a tie break, but still USA has a shot on doing the same, gold medal by a point

We needed drama, there we have

 

[Katha]

Perhaps they have some adjustments they want to test? And with them I think it's a good idea to skate as much as possible at this point anyway, so whee! let's go ice dance drama.

 

[tony]

Per Jackie Wong on twitter Laurence & Guillaume will skate the rhythm dance portion of the team event, that could mean France chances of qualifying to the free skates go up and Canada now faces not making it. Add that this will make the USA to maybe need Ilia do both programs to keep level with Japan.

I have Japan taking gold by a point or in a tie break, but still USA has a shot on doing the same, gold medal by a point

We needed drama, there we have

It’s for sure been said within those circles that they are doing the RD, we mentioned it in our little simulation. And that’s why I indeed think France will make it to the free skates.

 

[PRlady]

Per Jackie Wong on twitter Laurence & Guillaume will skate the rhythm dance portion of the team event, that could mean France chances of qualifying to the free skates go up and Canada now faces not making it. Add that this will make the USA to maybe need Ilia do both programs to keep level with Japan.

I have Japan taking gold by a point or in a tie break, but still USA has a shot on doing the same, gold medal by a point

We needed drama, there we have

I will be my two favorite teams if it’s LopBri vs ZingKol in the FD. GuiFab will beat both of them but it might give some signals about the individual event.

ETA: Kaori and Alysa being my two favorite ladies, the TE has more than one for me.

 

[MacMadame]

I am playing with the spreadsheet. @Karen-W didn't you make a list of all the players' World Standings, max, min and average scores? I can't find it but there are 16 pages!

 

[Karen-W]

I am playing with the spreadsheet. @Karen-W didn't you make a list of all the players' World Standings, max, min and average scores? I can't find it but there are 16 pages!

Indeed, I did!

I've left some skaters out as we have more information on who is doing which segments for some countries now, and left other skaters in since we don't know if the disciplines will be split yet.

Country

Men

SP Avg

FS Avg

Women

SP Avg

FS Avg

Pairs

SP Avg

FS Avg

Dance

RD Avg

FD Avg

USA

Malinin

103.25​

220.19​

Glenn

72.33​

141.22​

Kam/O'Shea

66.15​

125.35​

Chock/Bates

85.98​

127.77​

USA

Naumov

79.83​

150.15​

Liu

73.44​

138.23​

Zingas/Kolesnik

78.19​

119.47​

USA

Torgashev

78.21​

150.10​

JPN

Kagiyama

97.74​

188.77​

Sakamoto

71.98​

146.49​

Miura/Kihara

77.86​

143.00​

Yoshida/Morita

67.71​

96.81​

JPN

Sato

91.73​

185.78​

ITA

Grassl

87.76​

162.58​

Gutmann

67.30​

129.03​

Conti/Macii

74.74​

137.08​

Guignard/Fabbri

80.29​

122.01​

ITA

Rizzo

80.78​

151.45​

FRA

Aymoz

83.20​

155.76​

Schild

59.91​

113.13​

Kovalev/Kovalev

60.51​

105.25​

Fournier-Beaudry/Cizeron

83.10​

129.88​

FRA

Siao Him Fa

87.91​

171.10​

Lopareva/Brissaud

77.85​

118.02​

KOR

Cha

82.93​

157.72​

Shin

63.56​

126.69​

Lim/Quan

70.90​

110.12​

GEO

Egadze

90.01​

171.65​

Gubanova

64.87​

134.50​

Metelkina/Berulava

76.68​

136.39​

Davis/Smolkin

77.04​

117.81​

CAN

Gogolev

83.22​

161.77​

Schizas

59.00​

114.01​

Pereira/Michaud

67.05​

120.10​

Gilles/Poirier

82.61​

121.97​

CAN

Lajoie/Lagha

77.51​

119.39​

POL

Samoilov

75.78​

144.98​

Kurakova

55.37​

109.70​

Chtchetinina/Wozniak

57.13​

104.79​

Dovhal/Kulesza

58.99​

88.66​

GBR

Appleby

66.61​

113.49​

Spours

50.70​

86.44​

Vaipan-Law/Digby

59.57​

108.68​

Fear/Gibson

82.36​

123.60​

CHN

Jin

86.67​

156.91​

Zhang

60.48​

116.10​

Sui/Han

74.37​

128.20​

Wang/Liu

64.89​

101.40​

 

[BittyBug]

In the U.S. Figure Skating press conference, Christine Brennan ask ChoBat and Ilia how they would balance the team event and their individual events. Madi said that any time you get a chance to compete 4 times on Olympic ice you say yes, and Evan talked about valuing the team medal, so it sounds like @tony and @thvu might be right that the U.S. won’t split dance. Ilia was much cagier in his answer.

Thanks to @YukiNieve for posting this in the K&C OLY thread:

Japan's Kyodo News' YouTube channel shows complete coverage (30 minutes) of the press conference of the US skaters: Evan Bates, Madison Chock, Ilia Malinin, and Amber Glenn.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

 

[NinjaTurtles]

In the U.S. Figure Skating press conference, Christine Brennan ask ChoBat and Ilia how they would balance the team event and their individual events. Madi said that any time you get a chance to compete 4 times on Olympic ice you say yes, and Evan talked about valuing the team medal, so it sounds like @tony and @thvu might be right that the U.S. won’t split dance. Ilia was much cagier in his answer.

Thanks to @YukiNieve for posting this in the K&C OLY thread:

Very interesting. The calculus of coming away with some gold maybe factoring in as well, knowing their individual medal threatens to be silver with the rise of F-B/C. I wouldn’t be surprised if Chock/Bates fare better by ramping up run-throughs very close to where they aim to peak. Recovery is very critical at their age to get to the Olympics, but once they’re there staying permanently warm has it’s advantages.

Ilia’s goal is a squeaky clean 7-quad FS in the individual event. The physical demand and stamina required of executing that is considerable and asking him to even do a watered down FS in a pressure cooker is a real barrier to realistically achieving that outcome.

 

[fsfan2480]

If Ilia doesn't do SP and LP in the Team Event, I think the goose is cooked for USA getting Gold.

 

[Karen-W]

If Ilia doesn't do SP and LP in the Team Event, I think the goose is cooked for USA getting Gold.

Not really, especially if ChoBat do both segments. It would come down to how the other US man fares, and that may depend on who the Italian and/or French man in the FS is as well as how they skate. The men are so volatile, but especially the Italian & French ones in question.

 

[Bulletsdad]

Not really, especially if ChoBat do both segments. It would come down to how the other US man fares, and that may depend on who the Italian and/or French man in the FS is as well as how they skate. The men are so volatile, but especially the Italian & French ones in question.

I know Ilia is mum on doing both segments in the TE, but has he given any indication he won't be doing the short program? Also, I noticed he did all triples in today's practice, save for one 4t. Is that usual for him three days before competition?

 

[NinjaTurtles]

I know Ilia is mum on doing both segments in the TE, but. Has he given any indication he won't be doing short program? Also, I noticed he did all triples in today's practice, save for one 4t. Is that usual for him three days before competition?

He’s long stated his preference is to do the TE short.

And, no, not unusual practice for him.

 

[Bulletsdad]

In the U.S. Figure Skating press conference, Christine Brennan ask ChoBat and Ilia how they would balance the team event and their individual events. Madi said that any time you get a chance to compete 4 times on Olympic ice you say yes, and Evan talked about valuing the team medal, so it sounds like @tony and @thvu might be right that the U.S. won’t split dance. Ilia was much cagier in his answer.

Thanks to @YukiNieve for posting this in the K&C OLY thread:

This really increases the odds of gold for the US if C/B does both segments. It would really depend on K/O. Barring disaster, they should be 5th or 6th in TE short, which won't be bad.

 

[Karen-W]

This really increases the odds of gold for the US if C/B does both segments. It would really depend on K/O. Barring disaster, they should be 5th or 6th in TE short, which won't be bad.

I wouldn't say it significantly increases the odds for gold if ChoBat do both segments. I know everyone is assuming that ZingKol won't come in higher than 3rd in the FD segment but that's not necessarily true at all.

The only scenario where they come in 3rd in the FD is if Canada makes the FS/FD phase and GilPoir do both segments.

ZingKol have not only beat LopBri once in the FD already this season (CoC) but they have the higher FD SB. ZingKol beat DavSmo, handily, at Finlandia. They haven't faced LajLag yet but their FD SB is about 3 points higher than LajLag.

By my math, ZingKol are looking pretty solid for 2nd in the TE FD, especially if it's France that makes it to the FS/FD segment rather than Canada.

Pairs points are baked in, in most all likelihood - maybe KamO can beat PerMich in the SP, which would be 1 vital point gained. Maybe ConMac can beat MiuKih in the FS, which would narrow the points gap between JPN & the USA in pairs overall.

The real weak point, all things considered, is the man we use in the FS. Using Ilia pretty much guarantees gold. Putting in Torgy or Max makes it a razor thin margin unless they can manage to finish no worse than 4th in the FS.

 

[Barbara Manatee]

Madi said that any time you get a chance to compete 4 times on Olympic ice you say yes

Interesting. They didn't feel that way 4 years ago when the skate was on the other foot.

 

[Karen-W]

Interesting. They didn't feel that way 4 years ago when the skate was on the other foot.

Huh? It was a pretty well-known fact that HubDon and ChoBat had an agreement to split the Team Event 4 years ago.

 

[ilovesalchows]

I am so excited for this event, I think I am more excited for Italy possibly medaling than I am about whether the US or Japan takes gold. May the best team win! (And for the love of all that is holy, please no judge meddling, doping, sabotage, or tantrums)

 

[carriecmu0503]

Interesting. They didn't feel that way 4 years ago when the skate was on the other foot.

It may have just been a politically correct way of answering the question. Four years ago, we had two dead evenly matched teams. This time around, we don’t.

 

[Barbara Manatee]

Huh? It was a pretty well-known fact that HubDon and ChoBat had an agreement to split the Team Event 4 years ago.

Exactly. They thought splitting was great when it guaranteed them a place on the team. This time when they are already on the team, splitting is not an option.

 

[ilovesalchows]

Exactly. They thought splitting was great when it guaranteed them a place on the team. This time when they are already on the team, splitting is not an option.

I am going to add hysterical conspiracy theories to my list of wishes for this Olympics.

 

[A.H.Black]

I was waiting till the announcement of the short programs to know which disciplines would be split. I just realized this morning that we won't really know which disciplines will be split until the announcement of the free programs.

I suppose if the "secondary" entry is picked for the short we can surmise that the top entry will be doing the free, but I don't think that will happen. sheesh.

 

[Karen-W]

Exactly. They thought splitting was great when it guaranteed them a place on the team. This time when they are already on the team, splitting is not an option.

I think it's just an evolution of priorities - both for the USFS and them. The USFS/USOPC clearly wants to ensure Team gold and one way to help that along is by putting the top team that will earn maximum points in the competition. In 2022, there wasn't any realistic thought of gold for the US.

 

[CassAgain]

Exactly. They thought splitting was great when it guaranteed them a place on the team. This time when they are already on the team, splitting is not an option.

I understand the comparison, but I don't think it quite checks out. In 2018, all three teams were on equal footing. This year, Chock and Bates are clearly the top team that would easily place higher than the other two.

 

[Tinycities]

Chock bates splitting or not splitting is not the largest factor in gold though. It’s whether Danny and Ellie can stay on their feet, and if USFS can convince Ilia to do the free.

 

[Barbara Manatee]

I am going to add hysterical conspiracy theories to my list of wishes for this Olympics.

Hysterical conspiracist is nice upgrade from jealous hater.

 

[Allskate]

I suppose if the "secondary" entry is picked for the short we can surmise that the top entry will be doing the free, but I don't think that will happen. sheesh.

They won't put the "secondary" entry in the short, especially for dance and men, since the main reason for splitting is to give the "primary" skater time to rest. Plus, the short programs and RDs really count for more in the TE, so they won't save the primary skater.

I also think that the skaters (and NBC) have fun with the suspense.

 

[Karen-W]

I also think that the skaters (and NBC) have fun with the suspense.

This! I know some people are characterizing Ilia as "cagey" in his response during today's press conference but, to me, Ilia was just being his normal self with the media. He never fully displays his cards and he's been doing that all week.

To be honest, based on his demeanor during the press conference, I'd bet on him doing both the SP & FS for the TE. It's just another one of those "tell me I can't and I'll show you I can" things for him.

 

[Allskate]

I understand the comparison, but I don't think it quite checks out. In 2018, all three teams were on equal footing. This year, Chock and Bates are clearly the top team that would easily place higher than the other two.

Plus, the situation was different four years ago, when the Americans had more depth and experience in the dance than in the women. It's the opposite this time.

 

[ilovesalchows]

Chock bates splitting or not splitting is not the largest factor in gold though. It’s whether Danny and Ellie can stay on their feet, and if USFS can convince Ilia to do the free.

This. I wouldn't be surprised if Z/K move up to 1st in the FD based on their trajectory, although being in Italy it might be a stretch.

 

[Karen-W]

This. I wouldn't be surprised if Z/K move up to 1st in the FD based on their trajectory, although being in Italy it might be a stretch.

There's no way that ZingKol are beating GuigFab in the TE FD (if they do get the assignment). Their SB is about 3 points lower than GuigFab's and that's without the home Italian ice factor and a medal for Italy on the line.