2019 US Ice Dance Nationals Podium Poll

[Sylvia]

By @Spiralgraph's request ... pick the 4 teams you think will medal in Detroit.

(The 6 choices are listed alphabetically by the female partner's last name.)

ETA that @haribobo previously started poll threads for the 3 other disciplines.

 

[Wyliefan]

This is hard! I have no idea what to expect from C/B after all they've been through.

 

[haribobo]

Thanks, yea I was having a hard time starting one until we had some chock/bates competition data. I guess they compete in 2 weeks so that is something...

 

[Spiralgraph]

Thanks to @Sylvia for starting this poll.

Yes it is hard to decide in what order the teams will place. Consistency is an issue for the favorite top three teams. I made my guesses and we'll see who ends up the winner. I have a feeling it will not be a mistake free top flight.

 

[DreamSkates]

I'm guessing H/D will be first again. Would love to see a Ponomarenko rise in the world ice dance ranks.

 

[DimaToe]

How I see things turning out

1. H/D
2.C/B
3.H/B

I can see silver and bronze being interchangeable but Tram Montreal has an unvreakable chokehold on the top 3 spots at this point. I think the suspense will be with who places 4th-6th. Will a Maryland team break through or will Ponomarenko/Carreira take the pewter?

 

[casken]

Barring disaster, I'll be surprised if it's not anything other than:

1. H&D
2. C&B
3. H&B
4. M&C
5. Parsons
6. C&P

H&D aren't being unseated when they are 2nd in the world and just coming of a GPF win.
C&B probably saved themselves any serious challenge from H&B with that 120+ FD score at the Turin Cup.
H&B probably won't be knocked off the world team by one of the younger teams after winning a GP event and qualifying for the GPF.

4-6 should mirror international results, with M&C leading the way based on their strong FD. (The only good on in the event, IMO)

 

[Wyliefan]

Barring disaster, I'll be surprised if it's not anything other than:

1. H&D
2. C&B
3. H&B
4. M&C
5. Parsons
6. C&P

H&D aren't being unseated when they are 2nd in the world and just coming of a GPF win.

I don't know about that. Look how they unseated the Shibutanis at last year's nationals, when the Shibs were third in the world and had beaten them at GPF.

 

[casken]

I don't know about that. Look how they unseated the Shibutanis at last year's nationals, when the Shibs were third in the world and had beaten them at GPF.

Shibs made a mistake on the footwork sequence though right? Also they and H&D were a lot closer that season weren't they?

This is a very different season with H&D's main challengers missing most of it.

 

[Dobre]

As I posted elsewhere, McNamara & Carpenter have a higher RD score than Hawayek & Baker, and have defeated and lost to the same teams this season--the only exception being Zagorski & Guerreiro whom both teams lost to by less than a point but whom H&B also defeated at NHK. I would agree that H&B are the favorites for the bronze based on experience on the senior circuit. But having an "unrevokable chokehold" seems an exaggeration based upon what we have seen this season. Hawayek & Baker, McNamara & Carpenter, and the Parsons are all ranked back to back on the WS list and have defeated and lost to the same international teams this season (the only other exception being that the Parsons split results with Wang & Liu). Carreira & Ponomarenko are not far off, though they lost to Hurtado & Khaliavin twice and it is harder to tell where they are internationally as they did not go up against as many international teams in their competitive zone (L&L, S&D, W&L, S&F). In any case, I really hope all these young teams have a great competition. We've seen an incredible battle from them internationally all season, and I would love to see it play out head-to-head at Nationals.

 

[Debbie S]

I think after making the GPF, H/B are pretty much guaranteed a spot on the World team, barring a major error. Next season, who knows.

 

[Dobre]

Finishing last at the GPF last year didn't get Jason to the Olympics, and finishing last at the JGPF didn't get Torgashev to Junior Worlds. I realize the men's field is much more volatile than dance; but still, I think you'll need to do your job at Nationals.

 

[Debbie S]

Finishing last at the GPF last year didn't get Jason to the Olympics, and finishing last at the JGPF didn't get Torgashev to Junior Worlds. I realize the men's field is much more volatile than dance; but still, I think you'll need to do your job at Nationals.

Well, obviously, H/B will need to skate clean. So will H/D and C/B and the other top teams. But assuming H/B do skate clean and hit their usual levels, I think it would be hard for one of the up-and-coming teams to overtake them, at least this season.

 

[Spiralgraph]

Finishing last at the GPF last year didn't get Jason to the Olympics, and finishing last at the JGPF didn't get Torgashev to Junior Worlds. I realize the men's field is much more volatile than dance; but still, I think you'll need to do your job at Nationals.

They may have finished last at the GPF, but H/B got to the Grand Prix Final and McNamara and Carpenter did not. And H/B won 4CC last year. Body of work remember, if that helps Kaitlin and Jean-Luc if the decision on who to send to worlds is close. But I don't want to argue, I actually agree with you, everybody M/C and the Parsons siblings and C/P all have to skate their best. We don't have to wait much longer to see how all these teams will rank at Nationals.
I'll cheer for my favorites and so will every fan.

 

[Dobre]

They may have finished last at the GPF, but H/B got to the Grand Prix Final and McNamara and Carpenter did not. And H/B won 4CC last year. Body of work remember, if that helps Kaitlin and Jean-Luc if the decision on who to send to worlds is close.

I remember. But we don't know exactly what the "body of work" requirements are for this season. It is the beginning of a quadrennium. (I wouldn't want to bet on which of these four teams needs the experience more in the long run or which could help USFSA more over the next four years). All of these teams have medaled on the GP this season. M&C made the GPF alternates list. If H&B had been in the same two GP events as M&C, they wouldn't have made the GPF either. M&C have their own body of work. They were 4th at 4CCs during their debut season. They have two silver medals on the Challenger Series. They are currently 6th in this season's World Rankings. They have the higher RD score and are getting higher levels there. USFSA could have put M&C and H&B up head-to-head this season. They didn't. Who is to say that a higher result at Nationals wouldn't tip that scale?

And, really, all of these young teams have an argument. I really hope everyone will skate well. A rough day could send you from 3rd to 6th here. (As we all saw at Russian Nationals. Every one of these young U.S. teams is fully capable of defeating Evdokimova & Bazin).

 

[sharsk8s]

So basically it will most likely be a good day to be Marie-France and part of team Montreal lol

 

[Rukia]

If everyone skates clean I expect it to be H/D, C/B, H/B, M/C, P/P, C/P in that order. However ice is slippery etc etc

 

[VGThuy]

Shibs made a mistake on the footwork sequence though right? Also they and H&D were a lot closer that season weren't they?

This is a very different season with H&D's main challengers missing most of it.

AND Chock/Bates won the FD between the 3 teams at both the GPF and Nationals after Shibs made major errors at both comps, . Things were NOT clear with regard to any sort of hierarchy among the U.S. ice dance teams last season. USFS left them on their own to fight it out.

This season H/D will win unless they have a disaster. The only other team on their level to challenge, C/B, was MIA for most of the season. H/B won't beat a clean H/D this season. They are not in the same position as the Shibs circa 2016 Nats hoping to beat defending champs and reignign World silver/GPF silver medalists C/B.