2019 U.S. Club Competitions with new National Qualifying Series (NQS) & revamped competitive qualifying pipeline info

[Sylvia]

Well, the photo is blurry, but it looks to me like Ling & Wein are right there at 126+ for Dance Pairs Chicago. I can't tell the number exactly, but it looks over 126.5. They defeat Lavrova & Gart here, and the score is less than half a point below the 126.94 that earned L&G their spot on the ISP. It's a tiny bit lower so impossible to know, but my guess is that Ling & Wein make the ISP.
(Meanwhile, only one U.S. dance spot used at JGP Latvia).

Nice to see that Nicklas & Ryan did compete here. I remember reading earlier that they planned to move up to juniors; but I think this is the first time I've seen their names on a list this summer.

This Dance Pairs Chicago Junior Dance photo looks closer/clearer? https://www.facebook.com/icedancecom/photos/a.10156578739857939/10156581782887939/?type=3&theater
Official results (final standings/total scores) should be published here eventually: http://www.dance-pairschicago.com/

I'm wondering if only the Browns were assigned to the 4th JGP in Russia due to the visa requirement?

Even if only one dance spot ends up being used for both Latvia and Russia, there are still enough JGP dance spots for DelCamp/Somerville and Ling/Wein (if added to ISP) to be assigned and for Nguyen/Kolesnik and 3 other teams to get a 2nd JGP.

 

[Dobre]

I'm wondering if only the Browns were assigned to the 4th JGP in Russia due to the visa requirement?

Where does it say only the Browns were assigned to Russia?

Even if only one dance spot ends up being used for both Latvia and Russia, there are still enough JGP dance spots for DelCamp/Somerville and Ling/Wein (if added to ISP) to be assigned and for Nguyen/Kolesnik and 3 other teams to get a 2nd JGP.

If this were to happen & the top 3 scoring U.S. dance teams on the JGP turned out to be the top 3 scoring teams from this summer, this would mean pitting two of them against each other (as DelCamp & Somerville would have to go up twice). To say nothing of the fact that it would mean less experience for 2-3 of the top 4 scoring teams back from Junior Nationals and/or the 4th highest scoring team from this summer.

 

[jlai]

I thought all along there is a reason, US doesn't want a second spot in Latvia and neither do the countries who should end up getting it.

Re: JGP spots, I actually think using all the spots has more of a bearing on US ladies than any other discipline. US ladies FAR outnumber US men, dance, and pairs in numbers, and I do think as many spots should be used as possible, just so a larger number of US ladies get to compete. Besides, US ladies have a shorter competitive lifespan to begin with, so JGP matters.
With pairs and dance, there are fewer teams in the first place, and with US now sending teams to more competitions (including sr B and maybe jr B and Novice comps too), good teams will all get a chance to compete eventually. Yeah, I get the "they should have it now" argument, but I am not convinced having every chance to compete has a bearing on long term success. For every Lisa Tukt., there are 10 others that don't fare so well. IMHO, the #1 factor for dance and pairs is longevity, and one jgp competition, or lack thereof, isn't going to make a big difference in the long run, esp to a new team. Hubbell and Donohue became successful the year they paired together, despite having only 1 GP and having to do the regionals/sectional route. Max Aaron had no gp the year he became national champ. SOme skaters who didn't fare so well in the GP because of a tough field, end up doing very well at worlds, like Kimmie Meissner in 06.

I know people point to Russia and say they switch their teams around to qualify their skaters for the final. Yes, but the majority of the JGPs are in Europe and Eastern Europe at that, so it's easier for them to switch. ANd despite all these JGP advantages, their teams didn't win Jr world last year! and despite the early success of Nguyen/Kolesnik, they didn't medal at jr worlds, while the Canadian team won jr world despite not placing in the JGP final.

I think fans complain a lot when federations maneuver the GP selections to improve their skaters' chance to the final (like not inviting Osmond to a 2nd gp or not particularly crazy about giving Korean skaters a spot), but with JGP, fans seem to expect federations maneuver their own selections for the final.

I think JGP matters now because this is the next competition, but by time jr world rolls around, no one will remember any of this.

 

[Sylvia]

Where does it say only the Browns were assigned to Russia?

It doesn't; I'm just speculating. I HOPE USFS uses the 2nd spot and sends out DelCamp/Somerville as well because they at least made the ISP score before the entries deadline for the JGP in Russia this past Friday. But it's also possible that USFS may have decided on their team for Russia before the deadline in order to get started early on travel logistics (processing of visas).

My assumption is that USFS' dance selection folks already have a pretty good idea which teams are likely to get a 2nd assignment because the Courchevel results won't be known until after the entries deadline (Friday, August 23) has passed for the 6th JGP in Zagreb; ditto for the Lake Placid results and the entries deadline (Friday, August 30) for the final JGP in Italy.

ETA:

I thought all along there is a reason, US doesn't want a second spot in Latvia

It's possible USFS didn't end up using the second dance spot because there were no other teams in the ISP at the time of the deadline besides the Browns who may have been slotted in earlier for Russia.

Cranberry Open has finished and I heard that 2 of the 5 junior pairs in the ISP competed (Fleming/Isbell and Smirnova/Siiantysia) but I don't know their final results/scores. Here's hoping they will get an opportunity for a JGP since only 2 pairs have been assigned so far.

 

[her grace]

With pairs and dance, there are fewer teams in the first place, and with US now sending teams to more competitions (including sr B and maybe jr B and Novice comps too), good teams will all get a chance to compete eventually. Yeah, I get the "they should have it now" argument, but I am not convinced having every chance to compete has a bearing on long term success.

I think JGP matters now because this is the next competition, but by time jr world rolls around, no one will remember any of this.

It's not just a "they should have it now" argument, it's preparing your team for junior worlds. This is the thinnest, least experienced group of USA JGP dance teams in years. These teams need experience and they need it now. Someone's going to have to help Nguyen/Kolesnik earn junior world spots for next season, and we don't have the Greens and Gropman/Somerville here this season to do it. The US has

Brown/Brown: 1 previous JGP season with 2 JGPs so far during their career
Cesenak/Yehorov: no JGP experience together, he competed for Ukraine in 2 JGPs
Ales/Tsarik: no JGP experience
Wolfkostin/Chen: no JGP experience together, she competed in 1 with former partner
Tkachenko/Killiakov: just up from novice
Lavrova/Gart: no JGP experience together, he competed in 1 with former partner

Teams build reputations on the JGP. If a team only gets one assignment, that's not going to be a very impressive resume leading into jr. worlds.

 

[jlai]

It's not just a "they should have it now" argument, it's preparing your team for junior worlds. This is the thinnest, least experienced group of USA JGP dance teams in years. These teams need experience and they need it now. Someone's going to have to help Nguyen/Kolesnik earn junior world spots for next season, and we don't have the Greens and Gropman/Somerville here this season to do it. The US has

Brown/Brown: 1 previous JGP season with 2 JGPs so far during their career
Cesenak/Yehorov: no JGP experience together, he competed for Ukraine in 2 JGPs
Ales/Tsarik: no JGP experience
Wolfkostin/Chen: no JGP experience together, she competed in 1 with former partner
Tkachenko/Killiakov: just up from novice
Lavrova/Gart: no JGP experience together, he competed in 1 with former partner

Teams build reputations on the JGP. If a team only gets one assignment, that's not going to be a very impressive resume leading into jr. worlds.

US can send only 3 teams, with 2 of them likely spoken for by Browns and N/K (or whoever surpasses the Browns). The third team is likely going to jr world for experience. It's not likely that team will factor in the number of jr world spots for 2021 or jgp spots. If the third team ends up mattering, then that means, N/K is in trouble!
Even at senior worlds, the third guy/lady/team is often not the one that competed the most.

Whoever distinguishes themselves enough to get a second jgp will likely be considered seriously for jr worlds, along with national results and such. For the purpose of jr worlds, your top teams' performance matter the most, as it affects not just placement but the confidence of the rest of the team. Kinda like your anchor (like Nathan at 2019 or Miyahara in other years for Japan). Just my 2 cents.

ETA looking at summer results maybe fans are worried Del Camp/Somerville won’t get a second jgp? I must say I don’t feel too sorry for Somerville :evil:

 

[Dobre]

US can send only 3 teams, with 2 of them likely spoken for by Browns and N/K

I can't imagine the Browns have a second spot spoken for. They lost to Cesanek & Yehorov at LPIDI and to Wolfkostin & Chen at Chesapeake. Wolfkostin & Chen lost to DelCamp & Somerville at LPIDC.

 

[jlai]

I can't imagine the Browns have a second spot spoken for. They lost to Cesanek & Yehorov at LPIDI and to Wolfkostin & Chen at Chesapeake. Wolfkostin & Chen lost to DelCamp & Somerville at LPIDC.

All of them except Del Camp/Somerville get assigned early enough to get a second one if they do well. So they will all get enough experience for jr worlds. Except Somerville/Del Camp
and like I said, I don't feel too bad for Somerville.

 

[Dobre]

I don't feel too bad for Somerville.

You're betting DelCamp & Somerville won't get two? They may not. But they waited until they were ready and defeated the 2nd highest scoring team from earlier this summer. They've made their argument. If they get a score, they can do another event. And it could just as easily be someone who was ready clear back in June that loses out.

 

[jlai]

You're betting DelCamp & Somerville won't get two? They may not. But they waited until they were ready and defeated the 2nd highest scoring team from earlier this summer. They've made their argument. If they get a score, they can do another event. And it could just as easily be someone who was ready clear back in June that loses out.

I'm not betting anything. Ideally everyone will get an assignment, but I doubt an ice dance equivalent of Gracie Gold will be missing out on a second jgp. I suspect every team that medals in the first jgp will get a second. The ones losing out are likely new/unproven teams and they made the decisions to split and reteam (or move up from novice).
I'm not getting too angsty unless US loses JR worlds spots because of it (This won't affect JGP spots anyway as the top team, unless disaster strikes, is N/K).
Eta Going by the depth of the fields in the first 3 jgps I suspect USFS will do well if they have a team in top five in the first and third JGP. We will know who the top Jr teams are soon enough as the summer club scoreso can be a bit misleading.

 

[winston]

Latvia is easy to say only one team going, but harder to know definitively about Russia, because no names appear on USFS's assignment page. Like @Sylvia I hope/presume "things" are in the works, and two teams will be assigned.

By the way, I know (or at least think) that the International Committee Management Subcommittee does the assigning. Who is currently serving on this committee?
I did a quick search, and the info did not readily pop up, but that could be due to my remarkably poor searching skills.

 

[Sylvia]

@winston, USFS has revamped their committee structure and it looks like there are separate International Subcommittees for each discipline (Dance, Pairs, Singles & Synchro) that make decisions about international assignments now.

For those interested, there's a 72 page USFS Committee Handbook linked at the bottom of this page: https://www.usfsa.org/story.aspx?id=84020&menu=leadership (the section about the current structure of the International Committee is on pages 62 & 63).

USFS has been publishing their JGP assignments on their International Assignments page each Monday and they usually get posted in the JGP thread in GSD (eta that I'm glad to see 2 dance teams are listed!): https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...-discussion-thread.105731/page-6#post-5617812

 

[winston]

@winston, USFS has revamped their committee structure and it looks like there are separate International Subcommittees for each discipline (Dance, Pairs, Singles & Synchro) that make decisions about international assignments now.

For those interested, there's a 72 page USFS Committee Handbook linked at the bottom of this page: https://www.usfsa.org/story.aspx?id=84020&menu=leadership (the section about the current structure of the International Committee is on pages 62 & 63).

USFS has been publishing their JGP assignments on their International Assignments page each Monday and they usually get posted in the JGP thread in GSD (eta that I'm glad to see 2 dance teams are listed!): https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...-discussion-thread.105731/page-6#post-5617812

Interesting revamp. I had found that document but didn't realize the structure was new. It will be interesting to see who, specifically, serves on the various subcommittees and how those committees support the main international group.

And two teams for Russia is terrific!
Thank you for the info.

 

[azcalder]

Yegor Yegorov actually competed in 4 JGPs for Ukraine:

2014 Angelina Sinkevych & Yegor Yegorov (11) - Nagoya TV Cup
2015 Angelina Sinkevych & Yegor Yegorov (9) - Colorado Springs
2017 Olga Giglava & Yegor Yegorov (7) Austria
2017 Olga Giglava & Yegor Yegorov (11) Croatia

 

[Dobre]

Also,
DelCamp/Somerville: no JGP experience together, she has done 1, I think he has done 6
Ling/Wein: no JGP experience together, I think he has done 5
Buckley/Spiridinov: no JGP experience together, I think he has done 2
Pouilot/Slevira: no JGP experience
Lin/Sletten: just up from novice
Etc.

 

[Sylvia]

A few results passed along to me from the Cranberry Open in Hyannis, Mass. this past weekend...

Senior Ladies top 3: Heidi Munger 136.64, Iris Zhao 129.27, Sophie Nye 122.38
Junior Men: Maxim Naumov 192.78 (72.18 SP, 120.60 FS), William Annis 162.75 (60.45 SP, 102.30 FS)
Junior Ladies top 3: Lily Rauh 121.18, Mauryn Tyack 117.04, Jamiesen Cyr 113.56
Junior Pairs: Smirnova/Siianytsia 138.34 (48.55 SP, 89.79 FS), Fleming/Isbell 106.62 (39.23 SP, 67.39 FS)
Novice Ladies top 3: Hazel Collier 129.31, Marilena Kitromilis 128.09, Cathryn Limketkai 123.35
Novice Men top 2: Ryan Siracuse 111.16, Bryan Lehmann 105.26
Intermediate Ladies was won by Ava Ziegler (124.72 total).

Maxim Naumov's 192.78 is now the new high total score (eta: club comp.) for Junior Men this summer (he's competing in Courchevel).
Smirnova/Siianytsia's performance here likely will lead to their JGP pairs assignment in Chelyabinsk, Russia being confirmed on USFS' Assignments page.

ETA:

Isabelle Martins/Ryan Bedard (assigned to Lake Placid JGP) are the only Junior pair competing here (48.43 in SP) in their home rink.

At Dance Pairs Chicago, Martins/Bedard fiinshed with a total score of 136.87 (88.44 FS), which is now their summer high score.

 

[jlai]

I'm not betting anything. Ideally everyone will get an assignment, but I doubt an ice dance equivalent of Gracie Gold will be missing out on a second jgp. I suspect every team that medals in the first jgp will get a second. The ones losing out are likely new/unproven teams and they made the decisions to split and reteam (or move up from novice).
I'm not getting too angsty unless US loses JR worlds spots because of it (This won't affect JGP spots anyway as the top team, unless disaster strikes, is N/K).

I just looked again at the US jr ladies assignments--imho, that is more questionable than US dance? The jr ladies field is very very competitive, now that it takes multiple seasons to get the 2 jgp slots back, let's use them well on ladies with a decent summer score...

 

[Sylvia]

@jlai, I think only Calista Choi's assignment seems "questionable" based on her summer competition scores, but she is the current Novice champion and won her junior international debut at Egna Spring Trophy in late March with a total score of just under 160 (landed 5 of 6 triples cleanly in her FS, including both triple Lutzes).

 

[Sylvia]

Golden West will be held for the first time at Great Park Ice in Irvine, CA: http://allyearfsc.com/2019-golden-west-championships/

Schedule is not yet posted but these are the times of the Senior & Junior Men/Ladies events I was sent:

Friday 8/30/2019
02:30 PM 03:25 PM Junior Men Short Program
04:55 PM 07:25 PM Junior Ladies Short Program
07:40 PM 08:45 PM Senior Ladies Short Program
09:00 PM 09:30 PM Senior Men Short Program

Saturday 8/31/2019
01:15 PM 02:15 PM Junior Men Free Skate CR
03:45 PM 06:40 PM Junior Ladies Free Skate CR
06:55 PM 08:10 PM Senior Ladies Free Skate CR
08:25 PM 09:00 PM Senior Men Free Skate CR

From the Announcement: "No admission will be charged to the general public for viewing the competition."

 

[feraina]

Cool! Who all are competing at golden west?

 

[Sylvia]

Since Golden West is a NQS comp., entries will not be made public unless the All Year FSC elects to publish the groups (they haven't before this year), skaters share on social media and/or people find out through other means. If I happen to hear about any notable names, I will post here.

Ditto for the 94th Middle Atlantic Figure Skating Championships taking place Thursday through Sunday, September 5-8, 2019 at Sky Rink/Chelsea Piers in NYC: http://www.thescny.org/
My early hearsay info is that many more pairs may show up to compete this year.

 

[jlai]

@jlai, I think only Calista Choi's assignment seems "questionable" based on her summer competition scores, but she is the current Novice champion and won her junior international debut at Egna Spring Trophy in late March with a total score of just under 160 (landed 5 of 6 triples cleanly in her FS, including both triple Lutzes).

Thx. I wasn’t questioning CHoi in particular though, more an overall strategy thing.

 

[Sylvia]

Thx. I wasn’t questioning CHoi in particular though, more an overall strategy thing.

Can you be more specific?

 

[jlai]

THe US jr-eligible field is not as deep as that in some other countries. Instead of spreading the top seeds over as many competitions as you can, while pairing them with a skater with a lower summer score, perhaps they need to put two good girls in 2-3 events early on, to build better momentum. That also buys more time for the girls with lower summer scores to get higher scores and gain confidence in their skills.

I looked at the junior grand prixs of last year. A score of 160s in a jgp may or may not get you even in the top 6! Not to mention a club competition score of 160 may not equal an international 160. If you put one girl with a summer score of 160 something with a girl with a lower score, you run the chance of not having one placing top six, sapping momentum for the series, and it's probably gonna get tougher in the later jgps. Get the girls with top summer scores in competing head to head early, have a good shot at some early successes, and building confidence and momentum for the rest of the series. If the later results are not as good, well, at least you have some stronger competitions early in the series.

eta: in short, US should focus on doing well in some, as we don't have as much depth as Japan or Russian.

 

[Dobre]

There's no logical sense in putting the top scoring athletes from the same country head-to-head early. Let them go out an show their stuff against the international field. Then head-to-head once they've established themselves. If you're going to head-to-head early between athletes from the same country, then you're usually talking about athletes fighting for a similar berth--those expected to be on the bubble for earning a second spot, perhaps. Or competitive athletes that may not get an international head-to-head at all if they don't do it during the earlier part of a season. (Better to know how they hold up under an international panel head-to-head than to keep pushing the same athlete at the National level without knowing).

 

[jlai]

There's no logical sense in putting the top scoring athletes from the same country head-to-head early. Let them go out an show their stuff against the international field. Then head-to-head once they've established themselves. If you're going to head-to-head early between athletes from the same country, then you're usually talking about athletes fighting for a similar berth--those expected to be on the bubble for earning a second spot, perhaps. Or competitive athletes that may not get an international head-to-head at all if they don't do it during the earlier part of a season. (Better to know how they hold up under an international panel head-to-head than to keep pushing the same athlete at the National level without knowing).

Most us ladies with a summer score of 160 are on the bubble of a second jgp, and not consistent on top of that. They can do ok or get buried behind Russians Japanese and Koreans. Might as well send those in pairs to increase the odds of us ladies doing well instead of pairing them with a skater whose high is 140s who is likely finishing top ten at best . If you look at jr ladies only girl that has medal range score is Liu, and Hannah has never medaled in any jr event

That is unlike the jr men field where there are 4 clear front runners with a shot of medaling and CAN team up with a skater with a lower summer score.
Like Dunk, Torgashev, or even Naumov. In short don’t apply the generic strategy on ladies as the international field is too deep for US girls.

 

[haribobo]

Hanna was 2nd at Egna Spring Trophy 2019, 7th at Jr Worlds, and 7th at both her previous JGP events. In her finishing 7th at Jr Worlds though, she defeated Hae-in Lee (had a bronze @ JGP), Yuhana Yokoi (had a bronze @JGP and won Japanese junior nationals), Tomoe Kawabata (Japanese junior nats bronze medalist and 5th at both her JGPs)

For what its worth, here are the top scores of USA/CAN/KOR JGP skaters this summer- interesting to see how these translate to their international comps...

Alysa Liu, 214 (sr)
Haein Lee 194
Hanna Harrell, 182 (sr)
Seo Young Wi 178
Seoyeon Ji 174
Gabriella Izzo, 169 (sr)
Jihun To 167
Kate Wang - 164
Jessica Lin - 164
Emily Bausback 161 (sr)
Yeon Jeong Park 160
Kaiya Ruiter 149
Emilia Murdock 146 (sr)
Isabelle Inthisone - 144
Audrey Shin 143
Amelia Orzel 142
Calista Choi 138
Olivia Gran 135
Allison Schumacher 134

 

[jlai]

Which kinda proves my point. Hannah does ok on the jgp but the main medal contender is Liu. You might as well send Kate wang or someone scoring in a similar range with Hannah and see how they stack up, increasing the odds of having one top five finish. The List above doesn’t include Russians and Japanese skaters

 

[haribobo]

I don't think it matters all that much who is sent with who, this is all for experience anyway. The only one with a prayer of making JGPF is Liu, and maybe one more if the stars really align. Also keep in mind that the skaters aren't robots and may have other commitments in their lives that could affect who is scheduled where. We get vexed over the silliest of details sometimes...I kind of doubt the skaters themselves care as much as some posters do, a lot of them probably just want to be traveling with their friends/skaters they know, regardless of whether that friend is going to finish 7th or 6th to their 6th or 7th...

 

[jlai]

I don't think it matters all that much who is sent with who, this is all for experience anyway. The only one with a prayer of making JGPF is Liu, and maybe one more if the stars really align. Also keep in mind that the skaters aren't robots and may have other commitments in their lives that could affect who is scheduled where. We get vexed over the silliest of details sometimes...I kind of doubt the skaters themselves care as much as some posters do, a lot of them probably just want to be traveling with their friends/skaters they know, regardless of whether that friend is going to finish 7th or 6th to their 6th or 7th...

Well, It's 7th and 12th for the first jgp.
For strategy -- that is, if skaters' schedule allows it, like you said-- I would group a girl with a better sp record with someone with a weaker sp record, etc etc. For someone like Harrell, I actually think sending her with a skater with a strong summer would be better, like Kate Wang. Choi would have been better at, say, Lake Placid, skating at home, with a lead skater like Liu taking the spotlight.

eta: I must add, I'm not sure why Choi gets such an early jgp? She clearly could use more time improving on her jump landings