Paul and Islam: "No Matter What"

[judgejudy27]

Paul & Islam are a better team than Gilles & Poirier right now. Scores at Four Continents are always high, but Gilles & Poirier skated their best their and easily lost out to Hubbel & Donohue who didnt even make the U.S Olympic Team. I would expect Paul & Islam to come out ahead if the two teams meet at Worlds, regardless of start order.

As for losing or keeping 3 spots, if V&M and P&B both skip Worlds, W&P should medal, even if D&W compete. I dont see both Russian teams beating them outside of Russia, 1 at most probably, and C&L probably wont. Atleast one of P&I and G&P could come 10th in a depleted field, so they might be able to keep 3 spots. It would be close though.

 

[kwanfan1818]

The US Dance team roster is deeper, Hubbell/Donahue lost out the Olympic spot by less than a point to a team that's never been below 8th at Worlds, and Hubbell/Dononhue were beyond on at 4C's, at least in the FD; even if they didn't suffer from Nationals inflation there, they're currently sitting 9th on the PB list, after 4C's and Euros, even though that should come down, if D/W skate at Worlds, and H/D don't get another shot at a PB.

P/I don't have as much international experience as H/D or G/P. I agree that P/I are a better team than G/P right now, but the international judges haven't yet made that assessment, and being Canada #3 when all of Canada's apples are in the V/M gold repeat basket, will not help. I agree that W/P have an excellent chance at the Worlds podium, but that will also mean a top 10 or 11 finish at Worlds, which is doable, but it's also possible it won't happen. G/P were 18th at their first Worlds, and even in a depleted field, that's a lot of territory to make up. I hope Canada does keep three, and I think it's possible, but it could be tight, and I suspect that G/P will get a bigger bump, especially after 4C's and the PB jump, from W/P being Canada #1.

 

[judgejudy27]

G&P were also only 17th at last years Worlds werent they, so I am confident international judges will make the assessment that P&I are the better team. In fact I think they would have before now, and it was mostly Skate Canada that was propping overrated G&P up to prevent us from seeing. G&P are far more popular with Skate Canada and Canadian judges than anywhere else (I mean in a relative sense, I know score inflation is there for everyone to a degree), so if P&I beat G&P handily at Nationals, I suspect they will even more easily at Worlds if anything. The only way they wont is if G&P have really improved by then, which would be good anyway as there would be two teams pushing for the much needed top 10 finish then.

 

[skatingfan04]

I too doubt Tessa & Scott will skate worlds, so I suspect P/I and G/P will both go. As for G/P being picked for the spot over P/I if V/M stay, i highly doubt it. Like I said before, nationals was the tie breaker, and P/I won it handily. G/P's higher international ranking over P/I has a lot more to do with the fact that they've participated in more competitions than it has to do with an actual difference in scores. Getting a third spot with V/M gone will definitely be a challenge. I don't think it's impossible, but I don't think it's going to be easy either.

As I said earlier, I believe that P/I's SB score would put theme somewhere in the range of 15th right now, with all teams included. Since it's a post Olympic worlds, I'm sure a number of those teams will be absent. Furthermore, I believe P/I can and have skated better than they did when they scored that SB, so they are capable of beating themselves in that regard, especially if they skate well in Sochi.

In G/P's defense, their 18th at worlds last season was achieved with an uncharacteristic fall in the FD. That being said, based on the scores from their clean SD, it would have been unlikely that they would have ended up higher than 15th, even with a clean FD. I believe that G/P have improved significantly since then, which is a nod in their favour, and should help pull up their scores. I also think that they might suffer a bit when seen side by side with P/I in the same competition. On paper, the two teams look like they're equal, but I think the actual skating gives P/I an advantage, like at nationals.

I'm thinking something along the lines of what happened with Weaver & Poje and Crone & Poirier at the 2011 worlds could possibly end up happening to a lesser extent here. For those who don't know, W/P and C/P were neck in neck all season, with C/P coming out with the advantage on the GP circuit, then winning the Canadian championships by the slimmest of margins (less than 1 point). The scores suggested that the two teams would finish very close to one another at worlds, but when you looked at the skating, it gave you the sense that W/P were beginning to pull ahead in a big way (at least, that was how it looked to me at the time.) At worlds, both teams skated cleanly, but W/P really knocked it out of the park. Having the teams side by side, the judges boosted W/P way up (with scores that, IMO, were accurate), and they finished five spots higher than C/P. I'm not suggesting that the difference will be of that magnitude, nor do I think it should be, but I do believe that having the two teams in the same competition might result in greater distance being put between them in the scores than one would think looking at their SB. Given P/I's superior technical skills, and the fact that they've already pulled ahead significantly at nationals, one would think that they would be the team with the advantage. That being said, the judges might totally see it the other way around and give the nod to G/P. Either way, I think one of the teams might end up scoring well enough to get us that third spot, provided that W/P make the podium.

My, that's a long and incoherent ramble! My apologies!

 

[lavenderblue]

It's also worth noting that in that list of SB scores, Carron/Jones's score comes from a Senior B (their best on the Grand Prix is almost twenty points lower, and below P/I's incidentally), but more importantly, P/I have already beaten some of the teams ahead of them -- it's just that the current best scores for teams like Guignard/Fabbri and Zhiganshina/Gazsi come from Euros, the scores from which are harder to compare with a score from an October competition (particularly one where P/I's SD score was hurt by levels and also probably lowballed a bit given that they skated first). If P/I's two best international scores of the season were added -- which is to say, if they skated two solid programs as they did at Nats -- they'd be sitting in 12th on that list, with marks based on events very early in the season.

I'm preparing myself for any range of finishes, but I do think a position as low as 15th at the Olympics could be considered a disappointment more than an expectation, given what needs to be looked at in those numbers. And some good teams finished in that area in 2010, but that was also a much more veteran field.

As for Worlds, there are no grounds on which G/P merit selection over P/I. I'm also uncertain how to predict international reaction to P/I -- G/P generally tend to fare well (internationally) only at 4CC, for some bizarre reason (though in this case the marks were pretty reasonable and the field small). P/I received their best PCS ever at Nebelhorn, but curiously low numbers at Skate Canada. I think they have a lot that international panels like, but I can't even guess what that would mean in a head-to-head. I think they'd stand a reasonable shot at edging out G/P, but I'm not going to predict at this point what placement that could mean.

 

[blueglass]

At 2011 Worlds, I think there was much more at play than the judges just deciding that W/P were better skaters than C/P. They weren't then and as far as I'm concerned still haven't reached the technical level that C/P reached, though they certainly have artistically. For one thing, it's pretty clear there was a lot of politicking going on for W/P though I don't know who was behind it. This may be why C/P's brilliant programs didn't get the attention they deserved. Secondly, W/P had that perfectly elegant SD and historically they score better if the program suits their looks. Thirdly, I think whatever was going on between C/P affected their skating - not much, but a little. End result is they were dumped.

The problem with G/P now IMO is they're trying to have Piper skate to programs that would have suited Vanessa. I counted four signature 'Vanessa' moves in their Hitchcock FD and I don't know why their coaches are trying to turn her into a copy. It just makes them look ill-matched at least to my eyes and I wonder if it's that type of comparison to P/I who are beautifully matched, that is hurting their marks.

 

[kwanfan1818]

G&P were also only 17th at last years Worlds werent they, so I am confident international judges will make the assessment that P&I are the better team.

G/P were 18th at Worlds last year, and while I wish what you are saying is true, I don't think those two things follow, particularly since G/P made a splash at 4C's, and were more visible there due to the field. P/I don't have two championships under their belts.

It's also worth noting that in that list of SB scores, Carron/Jones's score comes from a Senior B (their best on the Grand Prix is almost twenty points lower, and below P/I's incidentally), but more importantly, P/I have already beaten some of the teams ahead of them -- it's just that the current best scores for teams like Guignard/Fabbri and Zhiganshina/Gazsi come from Euros, the scores from which are harder to compare with a score from an October competition (particularly one where P/I's SD score was hurt by levels and also probably lowballed a bit given that they skated first). If P/I's two best international scores of the season were added -- which is to say, if they skated two solid programs as they did at Nats -- they'd be sitting in 12th on that list, with marks based on events very early in the season.

The teams whose PB's were earned at Euros have, for the most part, much more experience than P/I and are more known to the international judges. They have shown many international panels what they are capable of. P/I, not so much. The teams that did well at Euros are expected to build those scores at Sochi and at Worlds.

Actually, the SB score for Z/G came from TEB and for C/J came from SA, not Euros. The teams that lifted their PB from Euros are Coomes/Buckland, Sinitsina/Zhiganshin, which gave them a nice rep boost, like G/P got at 4C's, except in a deeper field, Zlobina/Sitnikov, Guignard/Fabbri, Tobias/Stagniunas, Kolbe/Caruso, and Hurtado/Diaz.

I'm preparing myself for any range of finishes, but I do think a position as low as 15th at the Olympics could be considered a disappointment more than an expectation,

P/I will be challenged first by start order, as the groups will be created from current WS, with a random draw at least within each group:

Team	Country	WS
Meryl Davis / Charlie White	United States	1
Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir	Canada	2
Ekaterina Bobrova / Dmitri Soloviev	Russia	3
Anna Cappellini / Luca Lanotte	Italy	4
Nathalie Péchalat / Fabian Bourzat	France	5
Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje	Canada	6
Elena Ilinykh / Nikita Katsalapov	Russia	7
Penny Coomes / Nick Buckland	Great Britain	9
Nelli Zhiganshina / Alexander Gazsi	Germany	10
Madison Chock / Evan Bates	United States	12
Julia Zlobina / Alexei Sitnikov	Azerbaijan	14
Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani	United States	15
Victoria Sinitsina / Ruslan Zhiganshin	Russia	16
Pernelle Carron / Lloyd Jones	France	17
Charlène Guignard / Marco Fabbri	Italy	18
Isabella Tobias / Deividas Stagniūnas	Lithuania	22
Cathy Reed / Chris Reed	Japan	23
Tanja Kolbe / Stefano Caruso	Germany	27
Siobhan Heekin-Canedy/Dmitri Dun	Ukraine	31
Sara Hurtado / Adrià Díaz	Spain	33
Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam	Canada	36
Danielle O'Brien / Gregory Merriman	Australia	37
Huang Xintong / Zheng Xun	China	38
Alisa Agafonova / Alper Ucar	Turkey	40

Heekin-Canedy/Dmitri Dun are listed on the Sochi site, with the warning that it's not final. If she really didn't get her UKR citizenship in time, and a lower-ranked UKR team competes, the best Paul/Islam can do is be ranked 5th lowest in WS.

I don't know how they break up the groups at the Olympics. If it's in six groups of four, with a random draw within each group, they'd better hope that H-C/D are not the team from UKR, so that they can move into the second-to-last group. Same if it's one group of four and four groups of five. If the get into the second-to-last group, they can hope for a random draw later in the group. If there is a random draw across the first two groups -- or the first three groups -- they'll have a shot at getting into the second or third group.

Looking at the PB scores from what are currently the bottom 9 skaters in WS:

Isabella Tobias / Deividas Stagniūnas	Lithuania	24	142.31		Euros
Cathy Reed / Chris Reed	Japan	30	136.16		SA
Tanja Kolbe / Stefano Caruso	Germany	27	137.46		Euros
Siobhan Heekin-Canedy / Dmitri Dun	Ukraine	55	123.57		RC
Sara Hurtado / Adrià Díaz	Spain	26	137.58		Euros
Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam	Canada	22	143.47		SC
Danielle O'Brien / Gregory Merriman	Australia	52	127.2		RC
Huang Xintong / Zheng Xun	China	37	133.9		Nebelhorn
Alisa Agafonova / Alper Ucar	Turkey	47	127.93		Euros

If they skate well, P/I should be at the top of the first two groups, but will the judges give them the scores they deserve skating in the first group, so that even if they skate better than the teams in group 3 after the ice resurface -- their current P/B is higher than C/J's, within a sliver of G/F, and a few points behind Z/S's?

Julia Zlobina / Alexei Sitnikov	Azerbaijan	16	147.78		Euros
Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani	United States	10	157.58		NHK
Victoria Sinitsina / Ruslan Zhiganshin	Russia	11	153.71		Euros
Pernelle Carron / Lloyd Jones	France	31	135.7		SA
Charlène Guignard / Marco Fabbri	Italy	21	144.4		Euros

I think they have a lot that international panels like, but I can't even guess what that would mean in a head-to-head. I think they'd stand a reasonable shot at edging out G/P, but I'm not going to predict at this point what placement that could mean.

I think if P/I are low-balled in the SD because of start order, they have a chance of getting paid back for it at Worlds, and I would expect G/P and P/I to be close if that happens. If P/I skate well and get the marks they deserve, they may be a few places higher.

 

[canadablue]

Hi there! I've mostly been a lurker here on FSU, but I am a huge fan of P/I, and am beyond thrilled that they're headed to Sochi. It won't be long now!

I've been making video comparisons of them on youtube for the last few months, and I thought they might be of interest to some here:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLS-uLrIJE_A7z9dmhhEOUU1w4GhmIhk23

So proud of them for the performances they laid down at Nats. The growth in their technical abilities since moving to DSC is incredible. I think K/C deserve huge credit for knowing exactly what to do with them, and P/I must have worked their butts off - even the improvement since last year is so noticeable. And the last two seasons they've found their wonderful vintage-y-pure-dance-and-skating-vibe which I just adore. They're on the right track no matter how they place at the Olympics, I most certainly don't think the momentum they have right now is a fluke or likely to easily dissipate. It's based on something real - their major improvement in both skating and handling competitions.

 

[Zazy]

I don't know how they break up the groups at the Olympics.

In 2010, they separated the skaters into two groups based on WS and then did a random draw within both groups. I remember because C/L were just below the cutoff for the 2nd group and ended up having to skate really early, which hurt their marks. If they do the same thing in Sochi, P/I will definitely be in the 1st group but they could skate anywhere from 1st to 12th.

 

[skatingfan04]

Hi there! I've mostly been a lurker here on FSU, but I am a huge fan of P/I, and am beyond thrilled that they're headed to Sochi. It won't be long now!

I've been making video comparisons of them on youtube for the last few months, and I thought they might be of interest to some here:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLS-uLrIJE_A7z9dmhhEOUU1w4GhmIhk23

So proud of them for the performances they laid down at Nats. The growth in their technical abilities since moving to DSC is incredible. I think K/C deserve huge credit for knowing exactly what to do with them, and P/I must have worked their butts off - even the improvement since last year is so noticeable. And the last two seasons they've found their wonderful vintage-y-pure-dance-and-skating-vibe which I just adore. They're on the right track no matter how they place at the Olympics, I most certainly don't think the momentum they have right now is a fluke or likely to easily dissipate. It's based on something real - their major improvement in both skating and handling competitions.

Welcome! I've seen your videos, and I found them extremely informative. I'm not a skater myself, so seeing the elements side by side like that really helps!

 

[Meg91]

Hi! I've been a lurker for a little while but decided I would start posting since the Olympics are less than a week away!! I've been a big fan of Paul/Islam for a couple of years now so I'm so happy that they got that third spot! I was at nationals and thought they were far superior to G/P…it's so evident when you see it live. Any idea when they might be leaving for Sochi?

 

[canadablue]

Thanks skatingfan04! Yeah, I'm not a skater either, and I started the project to help me understand it more myself, but I'm so glad others find them useful too!

On twitter, it looks like skaters have started leaving, so I expect we'll hear from P/I or their training mates when they're on their way! I hope we get a glimpse of them during the opening ceremony - only one week!!

 

[MissJD]

Once they get to Sochi, they'll have very limited ice time, so I'm guessing they'll wait as long as possible. V/M are supposedly leaving on the 2nd (they're for sure in the team event), and I'm sure W/P will tweet when they leave. If there's a chance W/P might do team, they'll need to leave then too. Probably one of the coaches will go with them and one will stay with P/I. They might wait an extra week to leave. Unless they want to do opening ceremonies. I'd like to see them place as high as possible, so hopefully they'll skip the ceremony and train! The practice schedule shows two blocks of practice each day, one 40 min and one 50. That's hardly any time!

 

[lavenderblue]

Welcome, Meg and canadablue! It's always nice to see new or delurking faces around here.

So it sounds like they plan to walk in the Opening Ceremony.

“I don’t think I’d miss the opening ceremonies for anything,” Paul said. “I’m also looking forward to meeting the athletes from the other sports. We only usually get to talk to other skaters.”

Barrie skaters are ready for Russia

"When we heard our scores at nationals and knew we had made it, it was like a weight was lifted off my shoulders," said Islam. "All the hard work, the early mornings and the sacrifices I've made over the course of my career were worth it. I'm really looking forward to the opening ceremonies and walking into the stadium with my country-mates."

Political Science students heading to Sochi to skate in Winter Olympics

It comes up in this article, too, but there's also a little mention of their training plans: "We will be training [in Detroit] for the next three weeks, pushing ourselves even further and working hard," Paul said. "We don't compete until a week-and-a-half into the event so we'll be training there and using the facilities."

One week! So excited. I echo canadablue's hopes about the ceremony.

 

[skatingfan04]

Welcome, Meg and canadablue! It's always nice to see new or delurking faces around here.

So it sounds like they plan to walk in the Opening Ceremony.

“I don’t think I’d miss the opening ceremonies for anything,” Paul said. “I’m also looking forward to meeting the athletes from the other sports. We only usually get to talk to other skaters.”

Barrie skaters are ready for Russia

"When we heard our scores at nationals and knew we had made it, it was like a weight was lifted off my shoulders," said Islam. "All the hard work, the early mornings and the sacrifices I've made over the course of my career were worth it. I'm really looking forward to the opening ceremonies and walking into the stadium with my country-mates."

Political Science students heading to Sochi to skate in Winter Olympics

It comes up in this article, too, but there's also a little mention of their training plans: "We will be training [in Detroit] for the next three weeks, pushing ourselves even further and working hard," Paul said. "We don't compete until a week-and-a-half into the event so we'll be training there and using the facilities."

One week! So excited. I echo canadablue's hopes about the ceremony.

I'm glad they plan to go to the opening ceremony. They've been working towards this since they were very young, and have been through a lot the last couple of years, so I think they deserve to experience every single second of it. I know it'll limit their training, but it's not like it's going to cost them a medal or anything. How many times are they going to get to do this? I'm glad they seem to really be embracing the experience as a whole and not focusing just on the competition. Hopefully we'll catch a glimpse of them during the ceremony! It's a shame some of the other skaters will be forced to miss it due to the schedule of the team event (I know V/M said they're going to skip it). I think it's an experience every Olympic athlete deserves to have!

Nothing new, but...

http://globalnews.ca/news/1094018/canadas-athletes-in-sochi-meet-figure-skater-alexandra-paul/

http://globalnews.ca/news/1093973/canadas-athletes-in-sochi-meet-figure-skater-mitchell-islam/

 

[skatingfan04]

Well this is cute!

http://paul-islam.tumblr.com/post/75307077382/kaitlyn-weaver-its-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like

I think the atmosphere at DSC has made all the difference for P/I, and for W/P as well. It looks like a fun place to train.

 

[clarie]

I love it.......best pic I've seen re. the OG's.......thanks for posting that skatingfan04.

 

[canadablue]

I saw this gorgeous montage last week, and it looks like it hasn't been posted here yet. What a perfect song for them!
http://youtu.be/buvQqdt3xpQ

The fact that they're adorable is such a nice perk on top of their skating

 

[puglover]

Thanks for posting that canadablue - that is just gorgeous. There is so much to love about the two of them and their skating but one of the things I really like is their height difference. For me - it is ideal for a dance couple.

 

[skatingfan04]

Here's P/I's Olympic profile from Skate Canada:

http://www.skatecanada.ca/AboutUs/NewsDetails/tabid/2157/sni[2797]/3256/language/en-US/Default.aspx

No word yet on whether or not they're in Sochi.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Their tweet before they posted the profile link said they were on their way:
https://twitter.com/mitchislam/status/430804237069877248

 

[skatingfan04]

Their tweet before they posted the profile link said they were on their way:
https://twitter.com/mitchislam/status/430804237069877248

Yay!

Wishing P/I safe travels en route to Sochi!!

On an unrelated note, I just read their Olympic profile in greater detail, and something caught my eye. It says Alexandra didn't start ice dancing until she was 16! I had no idea. I saw her compete at Thornhill early in the second season of her partnership with Jason Cheperdak, and she really stood out to me as an exemplary dancer at the time. It's hard to believe she had only been doing dance for a year at that time. I had always assumed that she had been an ice dancer forever, like Mitch. I figured she had to have a lot of experience, given the quality of her technique. Guess I was mistaken. She has come an incredibly long way in only a few years, no doubt due to her off-ice dance training. I am seriously impressed by her right now!

 

[skatingfan04]

I haven't heard anything about P/I arriving in Sochi yet, but an Icenetwork article that was interviewing W/P said that P/I are scheduled to arrive in Sochi on Thursday.

On a related note, both V/M and W/P were practicing today.

 

[Meg91]

I hope we get lots of pictures (and maybe even some video) of them practicing!! Can't believe it all starts tomorrow!

 

[skatingfan04]

Alex and Mitch are in Sochi!

https://twitter.com/MikeSlipchuk/status/431296852668194816/photo/1/large

 

[skatingfan04]

Guys!

http://www.simcoe.com/news-story/4355997-barrie-s-olympians-thrilled-by-your-banner/

 

[Fort]

https://twitter.com/TheHudsonsBayCo/status/431834622708551680/photo/1

With Camerlengo during the Opening Ceremonies.

 

[bluestocking]

Great to see Camerlengo supporting his 2 Canadian teams. So glad P&I moved to train in Detriot.

Is Camerlengo a US citizen now?

 

[skatingfan04]

The opening ceremony was awesome! I was watching the CBC coverage, and I saw P/I a bunch of times, with Carmelengo. They looked so thrilled and in awe! Some fun stuff from today...

https://twitter.com/mitchislam/status/431704870044045312/photo/1/large

http://instagram.com/p/kIOiJlpFFQ/

https://twitter.com/SkateCanada/status/431836900152721408/photo/1/large

 

[skatingfan04]

Just a few clips from the last couple of days (not sure about geoblocking, since they're from the Canadian station)...

P/I cheering on Duhamel/Radford during Thursday's team event:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbUCvgHO9HE

Team Canada walking in during yesterday's opening ceremony. You can see P/I a few times if you look closely:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ur9Who40nOQ

Cheering on Virtue/Moir during today's SD:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=489KZYIOIdE