G&P were also only 17th at last years Worlds werent they, so I am confident international judges will make the assessment that P&I are the better team.
G/P were 18th at Worlds last year, and while I wish what you are saying is true, I don't think those two things follow, particularly since G/P made a splash at 4C's, and were more visible there due to the field. P/I don't have two championships under their belts.
It's also worth noting that in that list of SB scores, Carron/Jones's score comes from a Senior B (their best on the Grand Prix is almost twenty points lower, and below P/I's incidentally), but more importantly, P/I have already beaten some of the teams ahead of them -- it's just that the current best scores for teams like Guignard/Fabbri and Zhiganshina/Gazsi come from Euros, the scores from which are harder to compare with a score from an October competition (particularly one where P/I's SD score was hurt by levels and also probably lowballed a bit given that they skated first). If P/I's two best international scores of the season were added -- which is to say, if they skated two solid programs as they did at Nats -- they'd be sitting in 12th on that list, with marks based on events very early in the season.
The teams whose PB's were earned at Euros have, for the most part, much more experience than P/I and are more known to the international judges. They have shown many international panels what they are capable of. P/I, not so much. The teams that did well at Euros are expected to build those scores at Sochi and at Worlds.
Actually, the SB score for Z/G came from TEB and for C/J came from SA, not Euros. The teams that lifted their PB from Euros are Coomes/Buckland, Sinitsina/Zhiganshin, which gave them a nice rep boost, like G/P got at 4C's, except in a deeper field, Zlobina/Sitnikov, Guignard/Fabbri, Tobias/Stagniunas, Kolbe/Caruso, and Hurtado/Diaz.
I'm preparing myself for any range of finishes, but I do think a position as low as 15th at the Olympics could be considered a disappointment more than an expectation,
P/I will be challenged first by start order, as the groups will be created from current WS, with a random draw at least within each group:
[TABLE="width: 423"]
[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Country[/TD]
[TD]WS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Meryl Davis / Charlie White[/TD]
[TD]United States[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir[/TD]
[TD]Canada[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ekaterina Bobrova / Dmitri Soloviev[/TD]
[TD]Russia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anna Cappellini / Luca Lanotte[/TD]
[TD]Italy[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nathalie Péchalat / Fabian Bourzat[/TD]
[TD]France[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje[/TD]
[TD]Canada[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Elena Ilinykh / Nikita Katsalapov[/TD]
[TD]Russia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Penny Coomes / Nick Buckland[/TD]
[TD]Great Britain[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nelli Zhiganshina / Alexander Gazsi[/TD]
[TD]Germany[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Madison Chock / Evan Bates[/TD]
[TD]United States[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Julia Zlobina / Alexei Sitnikov[/TD]
[TD]Azerbaijan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani[/TD]
[TD]United States[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victoria Sinitsina / Ruslan Zhiganshin[/TD]
[TD]Russia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pernelle Carron / Lloyd Jones[/TD]
[TD]France[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlène Guignard / Marco Fabbri[/TD]
[TD]Italy[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Isabella Tobias / Deividas Stagniūnas[/TD]
[TD]Lithuania[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cathy Reed / Chris Reed[/TD]
[TD]Japan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tanja Kolbe / Stefano Caruso[/TD]
[TD]Germany[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Siobhan Heekin-Canedy/Dmitri Dun[/TD]
[TD]Ukraine[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sara Hurtado / Adrià Díaz[/TD]
[TD]Spain[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam[/TD]
[TD]Canada[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danielle O'Brien / Gregory Merriman[/TD]
[TD]Australia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Huang Xintong / Zheng Xun[/TD]
[TD]China[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alisa Agafonova / Alper Ucar[/TD]
[TD]Turkey[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Heekin-Canedy/Dmitri Dun are listed on the Sochi site, with the warning that it's not final. If she really didn't get her UKR citizenship in time, and a lower-ranked UKR team competes, the best Paul/Islam can do is be ranked 5th lowest in WS.
I don't know how they break up the groups at the Olympics. If it's in six groups of four, with a random draw within each group, they'd better hope that H-C/D are not the team from UKR, so that they can move into the second-to-last group. Same if it's one group of four and four groups of five. If the get into the second-to-last group, they can hope for a random draw later in the group. If there is a random draw across the first two groups -- or the first three groups -- they'll have a shot at getting into the second or third group.
Looking at the PB scores from what are currently the bottom 9 skaters in WS:
[TABLE="width: 653"]
[TR]
[TD]Isabella Tobias / Deividas Stagniūnas[/TD]
[TD]Lithuania[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]142.31[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Euros[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cathy Reed / Chris Reed[/TD]
[TD]Japan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]136.16[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tanja Kolbe / Stefano Caruso[/TD]
[TD]Germany[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]137.46[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Euros[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Siobhan Heekin-Canedy / Dmitri Dun[/TD]
[TD]Ukraine[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]55[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]123.57[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]RC[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sara Hurtado / Adrià Díaz[/TD]
[TD]Spain[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]137.58[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Euros[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam[/TD]
[TD]Canada[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]143.47[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SC[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danielle O'Brien / Gregory Merriman[/TD]
[TD]Australia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]52[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]127.2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]RC[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Huang Xintong / Zheng Xun[/TD]
[TD]China[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]133.9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Nebelhorn[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alisa Agafonova / Alper Ucar[/TD]
[TD]Turkey[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]127.93[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Euros[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
If they skate well, P/I should be at the top of the first two groups, but will the judges give them the scores they deserve skating in the first group, so that even if they skate better than the teams in group 3 after the ice resurface -- their current P/B is higher than C/J's, within a sliver of G/F, and a few points behind Z/S's?
[TABLE="width: 653"]
[TR]
[TD]Julia Zlobina / Alexei Sitnikov[/TD]
[TD]Azerbaijan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]147.78[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Euros[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani[/TD]
[TD]United States[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]157.58[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NHK[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victoria Sinitsina / Ruslan Zhiganshin[/TD]
[TD]Russia[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]153.71[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Euros[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pernelle Carron / Lloyd Jones[/TD]
[TD]France[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]135.7[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Charlène Guignard / Marco Fabbri[/TD]
[TD]Italy[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]144.4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Euros[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I think they have a lot that international panels like, but I can't even guess what that would mean in a head-to-head. I think they'd stand a reasonable shot at edging out G/P, but I'm not going to predict at this point what placement that could mean.
I think if P/I are low-balled in the SD because of start order, they have a chance of getting paid back for it at Worlds, and I would expect G/P and P/I to be close if that happens. If P/I skate well and get the marks they deserve, they may be a few places higher.