This is another thing that I think will be a non-issue. Either he'll show up with his jumps and earn his place or he won't. I know people will point to him being held up in years past, but that's because we never had someone with any kind of record that matters. This year we have someone who was 3rd and 4th at his grand prix competitions. That's pretty much the best non-Ilia results we've had in a bit.
It's entirely possible that Jason is on the team, but I think it will matter more what his jumps look like and what Jacob Sanchez is going to attempt with regards to which worlds he wants to go to.
Placement at the GPs doesn't matter nearly as much as scores nowadays. While I do agree that Torgashev's results at his GPs are better than we've seen in awhile, his ISU Championships results in past seasons have been less encouraging. Torgy's current SB would have placed him 12th at Worlds last year (a Worlds without Rizzo, Grassl, & Aymoz - all of whom have higher current SBs). Going off current SBs, he'd wind up 14th at Worlds, which would screw the US for spots next season. However, his SB is within a point of the two guys immediately ahead of him on the SB list, so it's possible that a home Worlds score bump could get him up to 12th, which... That's a razor knife's edge of a line to be on with regard to spots for next season.
All this is a roundabout way of saying that I think Torgy has done enough and demonstrated some good consistency this fall season, which has probably assured him of a spot on the Worlds team as long as he isn't off the podium - same goes for Ilia (duh, lol) and Jason. The only skater who I think could displace Torgy from the Worlds team is Jimmy - and that would only be if Jimmy skated really well and wound up ahead of both Jason & Torgy.
Agreed - if Jason shows up with secure jumps, that probably gets him on the team.
Brown specifically said that by competing all Fall, we were seeing publicly where he was same-time the last couple of seasons, when it was behind the curtain. So we’ll see how he compares when he skates at Nationals. He does have more wear on his body each year. There are also three spots, without a solid-ish second like Zhou, so the competition is for two spots.
Sure, but I don't have much confidence that he's going to show up with secure jumps. His 3A has been completely MIA this season and I call bullshit to his claim that we're seeing publicly this season what we didn't see last season.
Japan Open 2023 (FS only invitational comp) - 3A, 3A<<+REP - two-footed & couldn't complete a combo
Warsaw Cup 2023 SP - 3Aq fell out of the landing
Warsaw Cup 2023 FS - 3A+2T clean, doubled the planned 2nd 3A
Shanghai Trophy 2024 SP - 3A< F
Shanghai Trophy 2024 FS - 3A<
SCI 2024 SP - 3A< F
SCI 2024 FS - 3Aq F, 3A<+REP big lean on landing & couldn't complete a combo
NHK 2024 SP - 3A< fell out of landing
NHK 2024 FS - 2A, 1A
Last year, same time - he had 2 clean 3As per the protocols & video so, 50% success rate. This year - not one single 3A attempt has been clean. I know that by Worlds last year he at least was landing them clean, but he did fall on the 3A in the SP at Nats - which is the same success rate he had in fall 2023. Extrapolating the success rate he's had so far this fall to Nationals... 1 out of 6 would escape any call from a generous Nats panel, or 17% success rate, but the rest - stumbling out of the landings will garner at least a q - though they may escape any rotation call if he falls since the BV is already cut in half anyways.
Of course they won't. They will see nary a rotation issue. But that doesn't mean his position is secure no matter what he does.
Exactly.
Even going off of last year's generous Nats judging, he still only wound up in 2nd by 2 points ahead of Pulkinen, and 4 points ahead of Naumov - and a lot of folks here were making strong arguments that he was held up/gifted then. How much can the Nats judges hold him up if he loses 4 points in BV alone with a fall on the 3A in the FS on top of a fall on the 3A in the SP? Or no 3A attempts at all?
Every single man who made the FS at Worlds last year attempted the 3A and only the 24th place finisher in the SP fell on that particular element. Jason's SCI SP score would have had him 17th at Worlds last year (which is where Camden placed, coincidentally); his NHK SP score would have had him 20th at Worlds last year (one spot behind Adam, lol) - it's also the same place Jacob would land if we use his Tallinn Trophy SP score as a baseline for what he can reasonably expect PCS-wise as a debuting senior.
Best case scenario for Jason, if his jumps are in the same shape they have been this fall... Maybe he lands ONE clean 3A across 3 attempts in the SP & FS and he still manages to wind up on the podium because the rest of the guys have shat it up worse (entirely possible) - and if he's the pewter medalist - well, he better hope that Jacob is the silver or bronze medalist and is ONLY named to the Jr Worlds team.
I hope Sanchez's team takes any opportunity to go to Worlds that he can grab. That experience this year could be tremendously helpful to him next year. If he doesn't get Worlds, I hope he gets 4CC.
That won't happen. 4CCs is the week before Jr Worlds. It's more likely that Jacob would get the Jr Worlds-Worlds double assignment if anything - and that is absolutely a possibility - USFS did it with Ilia in 2022, there's no reason why they couldn't/wouldn't do it again with Jacob - he's helped himself tremendously with the JGPF gold this weekend.
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He sure keeps it interesting.
