Gymnastics #24 - The Road to Paris

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I was watching on Peacock and they showed Jordan's vault.

Only the first, they do two different vaults

 

[4rkidz]

Tiana has performed better TBH.

Yes either one really

 

[Rukia]

I would love it if Tiana made it.

 

[Karen-W]

Just gonna post this here and hope I'm not jinxing her... But, post-Core Hydration Classic, these were my thoughts...

Good meet for Jordan Chiles too. Bummer for Jade on the bars and I'm not sure she's bringing enough in vault or floor to justify a selection to a team that is going to have Simone and Shilese on it. We'll see what Suni brings to Nationals in a couple weeks - she's going to need to show she can really contribute on bars (her beam was gorgeous). Rough go of it for a lot of other contenders - Leanne, Kayla, Skye. Calling it now - Tiana Sumanasekera is a dark horse to make the Olympic team.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Yeah, but that's largely because Simone had a bad night. But, I'm happy to go with this theory because Tiana was second on beam and I really like her gymnastics.

Even if you move Simone to first, it would be the only event where Suni, Jade, Simone, and Jordan doesn’t include 3 gymnasts in the top 4 from tonight

 

[Karen-W]

Okay, so looking at the average of 3 scores over the first 3 nights of Champs/Trials by apparatus, here are the top 5 in each...

Vault -
1) Biles 15.592
2) Carey 14.567
3) Wong 14.300
4) Chiles 14.292
5) Lincoln 14.225*

Uneven Bars -
1) Jones 14.675*
2) Biles 14.492
3) Chiles 14.450
4) Lee 14.400
5) Rivera 13.992

Balance Beam -
1) Lee 14.500
2) Biles 14.417
3) Rivera 13.850
4) Sumanasekera 13.733
5) Roberson 13.492

Floor -
1) Biles 15.050
2) Lincoln 14.150*
3) Carey 13.792**
4) Sumanasekera 13.792**
5) Roberson 13.742

* - did not compete at Nationals
** - Carey has the higher single score (from Trials Day 1)

Let's just stop freaking out over Simone having one crappy night on beam. She's #1 or #2 on every single apparatus when you calculate the averages.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I think if Jones is doing bars and balance beam on Sunday then the team is still what I always thought it would be Biles, Jones, Lee, Chiles, and Carey

What took Kayla out? And is she out for good?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

2) Carey 14.567

That Website someone sent me to says 14.6 was her average?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Oh, I understand Karen your averaging the scores with nationals?

 

[Allskate]

Okay, so looking at the average of 3 scores over the first 3 nights of Champs/Trials by apparatus, here are the top 5 in each...

Let's just stop freaking out over Simone having one crappy night on beam. She's #1 or #2 on every single apparatus when you calculate the averages.

Thanks for always crunching the numbers.

I don't think that anyone is freaking out about Simone on beam. Even assuming that Simone nails beam, at this point it seems that beam is the event where a person other than Simone/Suni/Jordan/Jade is likely to make the biggest difference. But, I would guess that having a back-up who can step in on any of the four is a consideration for selection. Plus, things can change quickly. We've certainly learned that over the last couple of days.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Vault -
1) Biles
2) Carey
3) Chiles

Uneven Bars -
1) Jones
2) Lee
3) Biles

Balance Beam -
1) Lee
2) Biles
3) Jones

Floor -
1) Biles
2) Carey
3) Chiles

The same three do vault and floor and the same 3 do bars and beam with Biles doing everything.

And if Jones is out then chiles on bars and Rivera on beam

AA- Biles, ANL

 

[Karen-W]

Oh, I understand Karen your averaging the scores with nationals?

Given that it's my understanding that the selection committee is using the 3 best scores of the 4 from Champs & Trials and then averaging them, yes, I've averaged the scores from Champs & Trials Day 1. Sunday I'll drop the lowest score of the 4 and calculate the average of the 3 best scores for each gymnast.

 

[Coco]

--Karen-W, thanks for the number crunching!!

I think trends and downsides matter, too.

Trying to think of ways to quantify those variables...

For each possible combination of 5:

• recalculate 5 sets of team scores, each time with a different gymnast missing from the lineup, then average those five sets of 4 person scores, or
• recalculate the score replacing a counting score with that gymnast's lowest score of the 3 scores that count - but only if the lowest of her 3 scores is more than 0.3 lower than her average (this would reward consistency), or
• recalculate the score replacing a counting score with that gymnast's lowest score of the 3 scores that count - but only if the lowest of her 3 scores is the most recent (this would reward the upward trending gymnast).

The description of Shi's injury from gymcastic was that they could hear a cracking or snapping sound all the way up in the stands. That makes me think it's broken bone, but she dismounted off of bars so that couldn't be possible. Maybe an ACL?

They kept Maroney on the London team when she broke her foot in her first London practice. It didn't prevent her from continuing to practice and she did the greatest vault of all time (fight me ). But it is not fair to expect Shi to repeat that feat.

That said, if 2 of Joscelyn, Tiana or Kaliya make the team, they will really need Shi's Bars.

If I were Jordan, I would take out the upgraded beam mount and go for consistency. It's going to matter.

 

[Karen-W]

--Karen-W, thanks for the number crunching!!

I think trends and downsides matter, too.

Trying to think of ways to quantify those variables...

For each possible combination of 5:

• recalculate 5 sets of team scores, each time with a different gymnast missing from the lineup, then average those five sets of 4 person scores, or
• recalculate the score replacing a counting score with that gymnast's lowest score of the 3 scores that count - but only if the lowest of her 3 scores is more than 0.3 lower than her average (this would reward consistency), or
• recalculate the score replacing a counting score with that gymnast's lowest score of the 3 scores that count - but only if the lowest of her 3 scores is the most recent (this would reward the upward trending gymnast).

LOL - I don't know if I have time for that kind of number crunching. I'll leave that to the selection committee!

The description of Shi's injury from gymcastic was that they could hear a cracking or snapping sound all the way up in the stands. That makes me think it's broken bone, but she dismounted off of bars so that couldn't be possible. Maybe an ACL?

Oh, dear, that does not sound at all promising. I do think it's got to be something with the knee based on how she was looking on the broadcast when she was sitting on the mat after completing her UB.

They kept Maroney on the London team when she broke her foot in her first London practice. It didn't prevent her from continuing to practice and she did the greatest vault of all time (fight me ). But it is not fair to expect Shi to repeat that feat.

That said, if 2 of Joscelyn, Tiana or Kaliya make the team, they will really need Shi's Bars.

Not really. Simone, Suni and Jordan all have excellent bars scores. They need a 3rd beam score that is usable more than they need Shi's bars score.

If I were Jordan, I would take out the upgraded beam mount and go for consistency. It's going to matter.

Jordan could really improve her usefulness by upping her beam score - though I actually think she's pretty much sealed her spot with her bars and vault scores - her floor score is also decent enough and, in almost every team permutation she's in, she could easily wind up as the 2nd AAer what with the solid AAers like Skye, Kayla and probably Shi out already.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I've read dancer memoirs and accounts where they heard a pop, and it was an ACL in every case. Sometimes it was theirs and sometime it was someone else's in the studio or on stage, but it was always the dreaded pop.

Ugh, I thought ACL was the Achilles tendon, but it’s the knee. For dancers, the pop was the Achilles tendon.

 

[4rkidz]

I think if averaging numbers they should put more weight on the current meet as someone like Jade improved difficulty and others would not be peaking till this event.

 

[Hedwig]

Deleted- misinterpreted the headline

 

[honey]

Well that was a wild ride .

My heart breaks for Shilese, Skye and Kayla. It is so painful to be so close and then have it yanked away.

You have to wonder how much the shoulder injury played into what happened on vault for Shilese. Her coach did an interview with gymcastic at nationals and said one of the reasons for withdrawing there was the risk of other injury. She said something like, we didn’t want her to roll an ankle on a landing because she didn’t throw her arms back hard enough because she was thinking about her shoulder. Hard to know what happened last night, but her body is really hanging on by a thread right now it looks.

I don’t see them taking a gymnast for just 1 event when she’s in this kind of injury state. Especially not when the rest of the team is in such a state of flux with all the other contenders they have lost.

We’ll see what happens on Sunday. But at this point I want to close my eyes whenever someone goes to start their routine. No more injuries please!

Also, I freaking love Tiana. She has so much style in her gymnastics and an artistic intention to her movements that is lacking for basically everyone else. Would love to see her squeak her way onto this team, but not holding my breath. I know Alicia is talking a big game about not just choosing top 5 AA but I have my doubts on they will actually do this.

 

[Sarah]

I’m so torn on the team. On one hand, I could see Simone, Subi, Jade, Jordan, and Leanne not because Leanne actually adds anything score wise, but because Leanne is generally solid and consistent under pressure. If someone goes down, you can put her up anywhere. Will she bring a huge score? No, but she should hit. That means a lot. I’ll also say that Jade has significantly improved bars and beam. Do we want to use them in team finals? No. But could we? Yes. In a less strong line up, they’d be used. Last cycle? No way.

But, Tiana is another choice. Her beam is lovely (bars less so, I’d trust Jade first), her floor and vault and good and strong. Plus it would be nice to give a younger gymnast experience. Hezly is another option (I’m sure the committee would lean her way) but I don’t love her gymnastics as much. So I’m team Tiana.

Josc looks 1000x better than championships. She’s decent on beam and has a high score from last night. She can add to floor and vault (obviously) but not bars… But, if she falters, she has much higher deductions due to form. I’m actually curious to see how much she will improve in college and if she’ll come back to elite. She was out of the picture but if she has another night Sunday like last night… she might be the case of peaking at the right time.

 

[danafan]

OMG Lincoln decided on the fly to upgrade her last pass on floor. Watch the video to the end.

x.com

x.com

Sorry if this was commented on already, I didn’t see this until now

 

[Carolla5501]

So Inside Gymnastics posted this. Based on what they say Jones won’t be considered unless she’s competing Sunday

“Here is a quick summary of the USA Gymnastics Athlete Selection Procedures for the Olympic Games found on the USA Gymnastics Website:

1. Injury Petitions will NOT be accepted 1.4.3b (if not healthy now, not prudent to assume healthy in 2.5 weeks for camp and then nearly three weeks of training and competing).

2. Illness or extenuating circumstances will be considered (stomach flu, family emergency, as example).
AND
3. Had to finish 1st or 2nd in the AA at the US Championships (4 weeks ago)
AND
4. At the conclusion of Olympic Trials, their Nationals AA score would have placed them in the top 2 in adjusted rank order.
AND
5. Must be an active (competing) member of the 2023/24 or 2024/25 National Team by competing domestically or internationally at the 2023/24 season

If criteria is met, then the committee would take the two most recent results from domestic Championship events and assigned FIG events

Must demonstrate Readiness to Compete (health) and Physical Capability (training plan and competition schedule)”

 

[Rob]

If Jones competes anything Sunday, I’d name Biles, Lee, Carey, Chiles and Jones with Alts Sumanasekera, Rivera, and probably Lincoln. Leaves room for Jones’ injury just being a tweak or for her to do just 2 events - or they’ll know they need to bring in the alternate before podium training.

 

[canbelto]

I've read dancer memoirs and accounts where they heard a pop, and it was an ACL in every case. Sometimes it was theirs and sometime it was someone else's in the studio or on stage, but it was always the dreaded pop.

Ugh, I thought ACL was the Achilles tendon, but it’s the knee. For dancers, the pop was the Achilles tendon.

I follow NBA and when Kevin Durant tore his Achilles he said he heard a pop too.

 

[Rukia]

My sister tore her acl and she heard a pop. She wasn't an athlete or anything lol it was just bad luck.

 

[ilovesalchows]

I watched on replay last night. What a heartbreaker.

I think it will be Biles, Chiles, Lee, Carey and I have no idea who will be #5.

Wong - Tablesetter all around, can be used anywhere
Lincoln - Floor is exceptional, DTY Yurchenko is fine. Not an option on bars/beam
Roberson - Floor good, vault fine. No usable scores on bars and beam
Rivera - Decent backup for Suni if needed, but no international experience
Sumanesekera - Beam is excellent, floor is good. Vault would cover in a pinch. Bars are not usable.

I'd go with Wong just because the top 4 cover the 3 up 3 down. If anyone suffers an injury after the deadline, she could cover them all. And she's really the #4 on bars as Rivera isn't tested and the #3 on vault as long as she doesn't incur a built-in deduction.

The other 4 are our likely alternate pool. Seems like this year they'd better take it seriously!

Who is #2 AA? Chiles?

 

[HeatherC]

After sleeping on these ladies results last night, I would go with Simone, Suni, Jordan, Jade, and Tiana for Paris. I think that combination would cover all the events very well and be a very strong support system for each other over there as well. I just worry that Shilese is not healthy enough to make it through another month plus of training/competing and I don't want anything more to happen to her. (That would make the alternates Leanne, Kaliya, and Josc who could all cover someone's spot in a pinch if needed....if Leanne has another strong night tomorrow, I could see them switching Leanne and Tiana's spots but that will depend on how they both do)

I will not be home to join the conversation (and stress, LOL) for the men's competition later today but I will be watching so I'm sure I'll have a bunch to say once the event is over and I'm back home again!

BTW-A friend of mine went to Paris on a school trip a few weeks ago and brought me back a genuine Paris Olympics t-shirt and I'm wearing it today to hopefully send good vibes to the men today. They definitely need some!

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I’d name Biles, Lee, Carey, Chiles and Jones

This has been my team for the last couple of months. And if Jones is out, Id swipe in Rivera for beam.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Roberson - Floor good, vault fine. No usable scores on bars and beam
Rivera - Decent backup for Suni if needed, but no international experience
Sumanesekera - Beam is excellent, floor is good. Vault would cover in a pinch. Bars are not usable.

I don’t really get saying that Josc has no usable beak scores and Tiana is excellent on beam when Tiana beat Josc by only .025 on beam last night?

I do think that just looking at the 3 night averages has the effect of not taking improvement into account enough or people who are struggling due to injury. Both Josc and Jade made improvements on floor. Suni is doing harder bars.

 

[quartz]

I adore Simone, Jordan, and Suni. Tiana is new to me, and I find her utterly captivating - would love to see her on the team, or at least as an alternate.

 

[Hedwig]

I think if there are more or less equal options there is a lot to be said about taking a young gymnast and give them the learning opportunity

And it is amazing to see how far gymnastics has gone to see 16 or 17 year old gymnasts as „fresh out of juniors“ and having lots of time compared to - say- 1992 where 17 was already old and barely anybody had two Olympics in them!