USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[Karen-W]

You know, two positive tests from Group 2 skaters/teams in different disciplines really puts the USFS in an awkward situation because they've already committed to announcing the US Women's Olympic team tomorrow afternoon during the Men's SP before the Pairs even skate.

So, what happens if we have a scenario where Lindsay, Mariah and Karen skate great tonight and the USFS says "screw it, we're naming those three to the Olympic team, so sorry, Alysa" and then, we get similar great skates from both C-G/L and C/J that evening? Is the USFS going to also say "so sorry, Alexa & Brandon, but we're going with the other two teams"?

 

[VGThuy]

I honestly wouldn't mind that happening at all.

 

[PRlady]

I hate penalising skaters for positive crud tests. Alysa might not have another four years if rumours are true and K/F ain’t getting any younger. I’m fine with both getting strong consideration (and that’s with being a Gribbles and Karen fan.)

 

[kwanfan1818]

Given the cv-situation, if it does mean that petitioners are petitioning into their group based on international results only, and I were in any of the ranked groups and had to pull out of Nationals because of a positive cv test, I would petition, because if they are smart, they are going to have a long alternates list. And it's an investment of a few more weeks of training, not months.

 

[Coco]

I rewatched Alysa's SP. While we are probably all grading her against expectations, hopes and dreams, lol, she's still pretty good when compared to the general US Woman's standard. I particularly liked the transition after her 3f.

With Amber more or less taking herself out of things (SOB), there are really only 4 contenders for the 3 spots: Karen, Mariah, Lindsay and Alysa. I just hope that if Lindsay clearly wallops either Karen or Mariah (gulp!), she will be given what she's earned. I feel like she gets a cold shoulder from the Fed and from judges. I wonder how she would be regarded / supported if she had trendier coaches who were more in the 'in crowd' in the USA.

That said, I want every to skate great.

 

[tony]

With Amber more or less taking herself out of things (SOB), there are really only 4 contenders for the 3 spots: Karen, Mariah, Lindsay and Alysa. I just hope that if Lindsay clearly wallops either Karen or Mariah (gulp!), she will be given what she's earned. I feel like she gets a cold shoulder from the Fed and from judges. I wonder how she would be regarded / supported if she had trendier coaches who were more in the 'in crowd' in the USA.

Because we saw it somewhat in 2018 in a different discipline, I have a feeling Lindsey will be under a tremendous amount of scrutiny and have almost all of her jumps reviewed if she skates extremely well. I think there's even a chance her flip gets called 'e' today. She skates before Mariah and Karen, and if she's on fire, USFS is going to have a real predicament on their hands.

I know Alysa is in that higher tier with a petition, but her high scores this season came early before anyone (I feel like I was bascially alone in saying her jumps were short) started paying attention to the technical issues mid-Grand Prix. That Axel is not close, and hasn't been. A < here is potentially a << internationally and then she's getting like a 1.6 for the element.

I don't think Alysa should be considered as the sole representative for the team event, and I really think it should probably go to whoever wins Nationals if they accept. If she makes it onto the team, it'll probably be because Lindsey is either a distant 3rd or off the podium because of a bad skate, or because she is held down enough to make the case that Alysa is much more deserving. JMO.

Karen and Mariah aren't the perfect models of consistency, but I think they are pretty much on the team at this point.

 

[On My Own]

I think Alysa should still go, but I don't know if she'll be let into the Games anymore?

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Given the cv-situation, if it does mean that petitioners are petitioning into their group based on international results only, and I were in any of the ranked groups and had to pull out of Nationals because of a positive cv test, I would petition, because if they are smart, they are going to have a long alternates list. And it's an investment of a few more weeks of training, not months.

I don't think anyone suggested they shouldn't petition?

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don't think anyone suggested they shouldn't petition?

I think most people assume that only people who might be locks to the team would petition (or could make a BOW argument), ie, the way it's worked in the past, and that everyone else would be turned down. If it's petitioning to the group, rather than the team, that opens it up to people whose petition to the team would be turned down almost certainly, like people in Group 4, but might be accepted to slot them into a group. Like the difference between Liu being named directly to the team vs. Liu keeping her spot in Group 2 and getting on the team.

 

[Tesla]

Honestly? At this point, I think USFS has chosen the Olympic team and is just waiting for the medals to be given.

 

[Karen-W]

Honestly? At this point, I think USFS has chosen the Olympic team and is just waiting for the medals to be given.

If the skaters can make it across the finish line and onto the podium. They're falling like flies right now.

 

[Tesla]

If the skaters can make it across the finish line and onto the podium. They're falling like flies right now.

I think this will be the team no matter what:

Women: Liu, Chen, and Bell
Men: Brown, Chen, and Zhou
Pairs: K/F and C-G/L
Dance: G/P, H/D, and C/B

They have all proven themselves on the Grand Prix circuit. I think this is the team, regardless of who medals.

 

[Karen-W]

I think this will be the team no matter what:

Women: Liu, Chen, and Bell
Men: Brown, Chen, and Zhou
Pairs: K/F and C-G/L
Dance: G/P, H/D, and C/B

They have all proven themselves on the Grand Prix circuit. I think this is the team, regardless of who medals.

G/P haven't proven themselves on the GP circuit with a fall in the FD at their 2nd GP. Judges scores today would indicate that they'll be pushing H/B if they can.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I don't think C-G/L or G/P are currently safe. I think whoever wins nationals out of the Gribbles and C/J will be sent with K/F. I also think whoever takes bronze out of H/B and G/P will be sent. I am a fan of H/B and G/P but H/B didn't compete on the GP, however they have a long history of placing well. G/P had a fall in one of their events.

And I do still think that if Lindsey Thorngren were to pull of a big upset tonight, someone would stay home, but it would have to be gold or MAYBE silver. Bronze or 4th behind Isabeau will not do it.

Edit to correct because I read wrong

 

[kwanfan1818]

Honestly? At this point, I think USFS has chosen the Olympic team and is just waiting for the medals to be given.

I think they have, but those skaters might not be able to compete, when it comes time for the Olympics. And the skaters going to Four Continents will be traveling and exposed, so who knows who will be able to enter China?

 

[Karen-W]

I don't think C-G/L or H/B are currently safe. I think whoever wins nationals out of the Gribbles and C/J will be sent with K/F. I also think whoever takes bronze out of H/B and G/P will be sent. I am a fan of H/B but they didn't even compete on the Grand Prix, so in what way did they prove themselves?

And I do still think that if Lindsey Thorngren were to pull of a big upset tonight, someone would stay home, but it would have to be gold or MAYBE silver. Bronze or 4th behind Isabeau will not do it.

H/B withdrew from NHK but did compete at Rostelecom where they finished 5th with a score of 187.62. And then went on to win Golden Spin a couple weeks later with a score of 191.32; GrePar competed all season and their highest score was 188.43 at ACI in early September. I don't know that either team has really asserted dominance over the other but, on paper, one could argue that H/B would have had higher scores had they not been injured earlier in the fall.

 

[missing]

Can the USFS announce tomorrow that Alysa is on the team if she hasn't gotten around to petitioning yet? Or would they say, Mariah, Karen, TBD (wink wink).

 

[VGThuy]

I really don’t see a team other than Alysa, Mariah, and Karen. Thorngren really had to bring it to make an argument but she placed behind Izzo.

 

[Karen-W]

Can the USFS announce tomorrow that Alysa is on the team if she hasn't gotten around to petitioning yet? Or would they say, Mariah, Karen, TBD (wink wink).

Well, here's exactly what the Selection Criteria says about Petition Rights:

Petition Rights: Athletes may petition to U.S Figure Skating’s International Committee for the right to be selected as a 2022 Olympic Games participating athlete.

A petition in writing for consideration must be submitted to the International Committee Chair no less than two hours prior to the IC Discipline Subcommittee meeting for the petitioner’s respective event, unless the athlete is injured or becomes ill during the last segment of the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships and has to withdraw from the event. These athletes/teams will be able to petition the IC Discipline Subcommittee for nomination to the 2022 U.S. Olympic Team after the event concludes and prior to the IC Discipline Subcommittee’s meeting for the petitioner’s respective event.

All petitions must be filled out using the petition form (attachment A C) and must state the specific injury, illness or unusual circumstance, which prohibited the athlete from participating at or caused early withdrawal from the 2022 Toyota U.S Figure Skating Championships.

In the case of a petition based upon an injury or illness, the petition must be accompanied by a physician’s statement, and the nature and extent of that injury or illness is subject to verification by a doctor approved by U.S Figure Skating.

Athletes must also be able to demonstrate competitive, consistent and trending results through the events listed in 1.2.1.

A successfully petitioned 2022 U.S. Olympic Team athlete must be able to prove his/her ability to compete by performing complete competition programs with all planned program elements by a specified date, as approved and reviewed by a monitoring panel to be determined by the appropriate IC Discipline Subcommittee. In addition, medical personnel approved by U.S. Figure Skating must verify that the athlete(s) will be physically ready to compete at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

So, she has to have her petition turned in no less than 2 hrs before the IC meets. I'm not sure when they meet but I'd be stunned if she doesn't have her petition in before the deadline.

 

[Karen-W]

FYI - Now that we have our first event complete!

Here's the update to the Group rankings for the Women:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 / Pending Successful Petition* AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds W – 217.20	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds W – 208.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds W – 193.44 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds W – 178.10 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Group 2 - Alysa Liu* (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK) withdrawn from Nationals 1/7 (C19), 3rd after SP

Group 3 -

• Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom) 1st 2022 Nationals
• Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF) 2nd 2022 Nationals

Group 4 -

• Amber Glenn (183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK; 183.36 CS Golden Spin) withdrawn from Nationals 1/7 (C19), 14th after SP
• Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF) 5th 2022 Nationals
• Gabriella Izzo (182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; 167.96 CS Golden Spin) 4th 2022 Nationals

Others with International Assignments

• Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria)
• Hanna Harrell (158.89 CS Golden Spin)
• Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
• Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Also, from that wording it's clear you petition to be selected for the 2022 Olympic team.

 

[VGThuy]

Well, here's exactly what the Selection Criteria says about Petition Rights:



So, she has to have her petition turned in no less than 2 hrs before the IC meets. I'm not sure when they meet but I'd be stunned if she doesn't have her petition in before the deadline.

Yeah and even if she wanted to self-sabotage, her team will have it submitted in time.

 

[On My Own]

Thanks @Karen-W!

 

[NinjaTurtles]

I wonder how much the group criteria will factor into USFSA’s team event selection, if at all? For better or worse, I wouldn’t be surprised if they give Liu the start.

 

[Karen-W]

I wonder how much the group criteria will factor into USFSA’s team event selection, if at all? For better or worse, I wouldn’t be surprised if they give Liu the start.

Hard to say. The criteria isn't completely clear and Alysa got into Group 2 because she had one event that was a real outlier. That's not to say that Mariah or Karen are necessarily models of consistency, but my gut says Mariah will get the nod as National Champ, regardless of who is in which Group.

 

[Karen-W]

Pairs update -

So, to update the Selection Criteria one last time now that we have our Nationals results:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 / Pending Successful Petition* AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds P – 217.63	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds P – 201.18 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds P – 184.41 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds P – 157.29 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Pairs
Group 2 - *Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier (192.10 Worlds 2021; 205.87 Cranberry; 212.55 John Nicks; 202.97 SkAm; 201.69 IdF; 186.69 CS Golden Spin) withdrawn from Nationals 1/6 (C19)

Group 3 -

• Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc (185.31 Worlds 2021; 170.64 CS ACI; 193.00 CS Finlandia; 189.90 SCI; 202.79 NHK) 1st 2022 Nationals
• Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson (195.28 Cranberry; 196.69 John Nicks; 191.89 CS Finlandia; 197.42 SkAm; 196.85 CS Warsaw; 180.49 CS Golden Spin) 2nd 2022 Nationals
• Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov (158.81 Cranberry; 195.20 John Nicks; 190.03 NHK; 186.16 Rostelecom; 195.32 CS Golden Spin) 3rd 2022 Nationals

Group 4 -

• Emily Chan/Spencer Howe (182.44 Cranberry; 170.08 John Nicks; 163.39 CS Warsaw) 4th 2022 Nationals
• Katie McBeath/Nathan Bartholomay (157.74 Cranberry; 161.69 John Nicks; 168.61 CS ACI) 5th 2022 Nationals

Others with International Assignments
Kate Finster/Matej Silecky (130.47 John Nicks)

 

[Karen-W]

And Dance Update -

Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds D – 214.35	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds D – 208.77 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds D – 188.45 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds D – 178.18 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Group 2 -

• Madison Chock/Evan Bates (212.69 Worlds 2021; 208.31 CS Finlandia; 208.23 SkAm; 210.78 NHK; GPF) 1st 2022 Nationals
• Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue (214.71 Worlds 2021; 207.30 US Classic; 209.54 SkAm; 207.90 GP Italia; GPF) 2nd 2022 Nationals

Group 3 - Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker (188.51 Worlds 2021; 187.62 Rostelecom; 191.32 CS Golden Spin) 3rd 2022 Nationals

Group 4 -

• Caroline Green/Michael Parsons (174.98 LPIDI; 188.43 CS ACI; 186.51 SCI; 178.26 GP Italia; 187.84 CS Warsaw) 4th 2022 Nationals
• Emily Bratti/Ian Somerville (166.83 CS Austria; 172.24 CS Golden Spin) 5th 2022 Nationals

Others with International Assignments
Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko (172.78 CS Lombardia; 178.27 CS Finlandia; 168.76 SCI; 175.91 IdF)
Molly Cesanek/Yehor Yehorov (166.12 LPIDI; 151.76 CS Lombardia; 156.97 SkAm; 166.71 CS Golden Spin)
Eva Pate/Logan Bye (159.87 LPIDI; 171.70 US Classic; 171.00 CS Warsaw)
Lorraine McNamara/Anton Spiridonov (155.12 LPIDI; 161.82 US Classic; 159.03 CS Austria)
Katarina Wolfkostin/Jeffrey Chen (165.01 JGP Courchevel 1; 163.25 JGP Ljubljana; 164.33 CS Austria, JGPF)

 

[shuilee]

H&D won the Free Dance. Well deserved. I think the new changes at the end really gave them that extra punch and made the program feel more Olympic-like. Encouraging that they won the PCS and the FD portion, at least.

C&B also clean, but it fell a bit flat towards the last third of the program relative to H&D. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the Olympics.

I wonder if the RD will determine who wins bronze in Beijing. The FD scores for H&D, C&B and G&P will likely be within 1 point of each other. But the RD (especially the levels) could decide who wins bronze.

 

[VGThuy]

It’s going to be exciting to watch, that’s for sure.

 

[Debbie S]

C/B struggled on their last choreo lift and that likely made the difference in the FD scoring. If they scored in their usual range for that element, they would have won the FD. Something to work on for Beijing.

Agree the RD scores between the top 3 N.A. teams should be close, and we could see movement after the FD. Exciting to watch but also nerve-wracking!