USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[skatfan]

How sad if Karen is considered a lock considering she hasn't won a damn thing so far this season no medals nothing which is par for the course for her internationally. Here's hoping the youngsters like Lindsay put it together at Nationals or Mariah or even Amber get on the podium and Bradie comes back.

How sad for the other skaters who haven't done very well either. They've had similar chances. Go Karen!

 

[Karen-W]

To be honest, logically-speaking, the argument to use both teams is more emotion based than anything. If both teams are equally competitive and would rank the same then it would be most logical to just one and save the switch-a-roo for a discipline where we really need it.

Except that there isn't really any reason to switch out either the woman or pairs team - Alysa is going to score higher than any other woman we put in, and the pairs teams are all scoring in the same range and showing the same level of consistency. With the Men and Dance being the first two disciplines to follow the TE, it makes far more sense to use two in those disciplines than it does in either Women or Pairs, as those skaters will have extra time to recover from skating the SP/FS.

 

[Coco]

Polina Edmunds deserved to go in 2014 because she was the present, not because of her future potential. Finishing a solid second at nationals counts. And as to not panning out, Edmunds went on to finish top 10 at the Olympics, had two top-8 finishes at Worlds and won Four Continents before injury derailed her. That's a career to be proud of.

Always loved this SP And she was 5th!! in the FS at 2014 Worlds!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9g-59xijks

 

[wickedwitch]

I’m actually curious why so many people think “future potential” is a trump card, and why it only seems to factor into the men’s selection process? Because as Polina demonstrates, potential doesn’t always pan out, and I haven’t heard a whole lot of people arguing that we should send Lindsay and G/P to the Olympics.

Just some of the posts talking about Lindsay potentially making the Oly team:

U.S. Women [#1]: The Contenders Unmask Themselves

The qualifying competition in Henderson, Nevada this week has Mariah Bell (she already has a bye to Nationals but good idea to compete before her GP season, especially since she now doesn't have an ISU Challenger beforehand) and Hanna Harrell listed in Senior; JGP singles competitors listed in...

www.fsuniverse.net

U.S. Women [#2]: The Unbearable Lightness of Beijing

Isabeau Levito withdrew from Leesburg event. Is she ok? Thorngren still on; coming up soon.

www.fsuniverse.net

U.S. Women [#1]: The Contenders Unmask Themselves

Lindsay hasn't even skated a senior international yet. She scored 193+ in her last JGP event, which is about 4 points lower than Bradie scored at Worlds last March, only with one less element. I don't see any reason to believe that she isn't capable of scoring close to the 208+ that Chen and...

www.fsuniverse.net

U.S. Women [#1]: The Contenders Unmask Themselves

"Starr Andrews will represent Team USA at 2021 Guaranteed Rate Skate America, U.S. Figure Skating announced Monday. Andrews will replace Bradie Tennell, who has withdrawn from the competition due to injury."...

www.fsuniverse.net

 

[Tavi]

@Karen-W, forgive me, but it feels like you’re applying different standards for men, women, and dance. If it’s important to develop young skaters with potential for the future, it’s important in all disciplines, not just men, but somehow, the arguments in favor of Ilia have been far more forceful than any I’ve seen in favor of Lindsay (thanks, @wickedwitch!) or G/P (who are actually out there competing as seniors this year).

Beyond that, you seem to have specific requirements for Jason to make the team (medal contender - no, contribution to team event - no, already been - yes, leading to the need to justify why he deserves to go) that you don’t apply to anyone else. For H/B, it seems that the desire of their fans to see them at the Olympics is reason enough to send them over G/P. Leaving aside the fact that if Vincent comes down with the flu on the day of the team event, they’re gonna need someone to replace him and I’m pretty sure it won’t be Nathan - why shouldn’t Jason go? As an elite competitive athlete, I’m sure his goal would be to have the skates of his life and improve on his 2014 finish. No different than anyone else. Surely that’s enough.

@her grace, my comment wasn’t meant to diss Polina or her accomplishments. She’s been held up in this thread as an example of the US sending athletes who are “our future” as justification for sending an up and coming athlete like Ilia instead of Jason. The implication of the arguments is that Ilia is the next Nathan and a potential future world & Olympic medalist and Jason is, as @Tahuu so rudely put it, a “goner.” As much as Polina accomplished, she was never a world or Olympic medalist. So by that standard, she’s not a good “model” to justify sending Ilia. That’s all I meant.

 

[Karen-W]

@Karen-W, forgive me, but it feels like you’re applying different standards for men, women, and dance. If it’s important to develop young skaters with potential for the future, it’s important in all disciplines, not just men, but somehow, the arguments in favor of Ilia have been far more forceful than any I’ve seen in favor of Lindsay (thanks, @wickedwitch!) or G/P (who are actually out there competing as seniors this year).

Beyond that, you seem to have specific requirements for Jason to make the team (medal contender - no, contribution to team event - no, already been - yes, leading to the need to justify why he deserves to go) that you don’t apply to anyone else. For H/B, it seems that the desire of their fans to see them at the Olympics is reason enough to send them over G/P. Leaving aside the fact that if Vincent comes down with the flu on the day of the team event, they’re gonna need someone to replace him and I’m pretty sure it won’t be Nathan - why shouldn’t Jason go? As an elite competitive athlete, I’m sure his goal would be to have the skates of his life and improve on his 2014 finish. No different than anyone else. Surely that’s enough.

@her grace, my comment wasn’t meant to diss Polina or her accomplishments. She’s been held up in this thread as an example of the US sending athletes who are “our future” as justification for sending an up and coming athlete like Ilia instead of Jason. The implication of the arguments is that Ilia is the next Nathan and a potential future world & Olympic medalist and Jason is, as @Tahuu so rudely put it, a “goner.” As much as Polina accomplished, she was never a world or Olympic medalist. So by that standard, she’s not a good “model” to justify sending Ilia. That’s all I meant.

Oh, give it up. I've said plenty in support of Lindsay being sent. Just because you haven't read it doesn't mean it isn't out there - I've said it in several places over the last few months that I'd love a team of women who are at least TRYING a 3A every competition - which would be Alysa, Amber and Lindsay. I don't particularly see any more of a compelling reason to send Karen or Bradie this year than I do in sending Jason. The chances of any of that trio winning a medal are non-existent. I appreciate that Karen has come up big for the US at Worlds in 2017 and 2021 but I find that argument in support of her being put on the team as ridiculous as the ones from the Jason ubers who like to remind us that "Jason is the reason we were able to vie for that 3rd spot at Nebelhorn". This isn't pre-1990 where the Worlds medalist earned him/herself a spot at Worlds the following year and if he/she didn't go the country only got to send 2 skaters.

There is one vital difference between Jason and H/B - he has already been to an Olympics and they have not. I think that is a huge reason why more people aren't going on and on about sending G/P over them, should H/B not manage to pull themselves into Group 3 during their next 2 comps. But, having said that, all it will take for G/P to move into Group 3 is a Top 3 finish at Nationals and if they accomplish that then I see no compelling reason why they should be passed over in favor of H/B.

 

[Tavi]

Oh, give it up. I've said plenty in support of Lindsay being sent. Just because you haven't read it doesn't mean it isn't out there - I've said it in several places over the last few months that I'd love a team of women who are at least TRYING a 3A every competition - which would be Alysa, Amber and Lindsay. I don't particularly see any more of a compelling reason to send Karen or Bradie this year than I do in sending Jason. The chances of any of that trio winning a medal are non-existent. I appreciate that Karen has come up big for the US at Worlds in 2017 and 2021 but I find that argument in support of her being put on the team as ridiculous as the ones from the Jason ubers who like to remind us that "Jason is the reason we were able to vie for that 3rd spot at Nebelhorn". This isn't pre-1990 where the Worlds medalist earned him/herself a spot at Worlds the following year and if he/she didn't go the country only got to send 2 skaters.

There is one vital difference between Jason and H/B - he has already been to an Olympics and they have not. I think that is a huge reason why more people aren't going on and on about sending G/P over them, should H/B not manage to pull themselves into Group 3 during their next 2 comps. But, having said that, all it will take for G/P to move into Group 3 is a Top 3 finish at Nationals and if they accomplish that then I see no compelling reason why they should be passed over in favor of H/B.

Karen. I never said you didn’t say anything “in support of Lindsay being sent.” I said I felt like you are applying different standards to men, women, and dance, and “that the arguments in favor of Ilia have been far more forceful than any I’ve seen in favor of Lindsay.” Nothing you’ve said in this response makes me think any differently.

As to the rest of it, I personally don’t think whether or not you’ve already been to the Olympics already is a “vital difference” such that it justifies sending one athlete over another. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s irrelevant. Many athletes never make it to the Olympics. Is it sad? Yeah, I’m sure. But that’s life. Many athletes go more than once, and specifically, many of the athletes who will ultimately represent the US in 2022 will not be first timers, including, at minimum, two of our men and two of our dance teams.

In any case, as I’m sure you know, the selection criteria don’t consider # of prior appearances at the Olympics, but they do consider median scores and scoring trends as well as priority groups. Although the season’s not yet over, right now Jason’s median score of 262 is trending slightly up, and is 30-50 points higher than the median scores of any US man not named Nathan or Vincent. He’s medaled at every competition and has been consistently scoring at the level of his top 7 score at Worlds, despite losing nearly two months to an injury. In short, he’s able to produce at a high level even when he’s not at his best. My guess is that in the end, those things will count much more than whether or not he’s been to the Olympics previously. But I’m not on the selection committee, and only time will tell.

 

[Karen-W]

Karen. I never said you didn’t say anything “in support of Lindsay being sent.” I said I felt like you are applying different standards to men, women, and dance, and “that the arguments in favor of Ilia have been far more forceful than any I’ve seen in favor of Lindsay.” Nothing you’ve said in this response makes me think any differently.

As to the rest of it, I personally don’t think whether or not you’ve already been to the Olympics already is a “vital difference” such that it justifies sending one athlete over another. In fact, I’m pretty sure it’s irrelevant. Many athletes never make it to the Olympics. Is it sad? Yeah, I’m sure. But that’s life. Many athletes go more than once, and specifically, many of the athletes who will ultimately represent the US in 2022 will not be first timers, including, at minimum, two of our men and two of our dance teams.

In any case, as I’m sure you know, the selection criteria don’t consider # of prior appearances at the Olympics, but they do consider median scores and scoring trends as well as priority groups. Although the season’s not yet over, right now Jason’s median score of 262 is trending slightly up, and is 30-50 points higher than the median scores of any US man not named Nathan or Vincent. He’s medaled at every competition and has been consistently scoring at the level of his top 7 score at Worlds, despite losing nearly two months to an injury. In short, he’s able to produce at a high level even when he’s not at his best. My guess is that in the end, those things will count much more than whether or not he’s been to the Olympics previously. But I’m not on the selection committee, and only time will tell.

The committee is going to do what it wants, regardless of scoring trends if there are multiple competitors in the same group. My guess is that they won't care much about whether Jason's median score is 30 points higher than Jimmy or Ilia if they beat him at Nationals. Same goes for, say, Starr Andrews or Sierra Venetta in the women... if they finish top 3, they're probably getting named to the Olympic team ahead of another woman whose median scores are 15-20 points higher. Same for Green/Parsons. The criteria is written in such a way that Top 3 at Nationals gets a skater/team into Group 3 and that puts that skater on an even footing with other skaters who have the international scores.

To put our different views into simpler terms... it is your view that the Selection Committee will select the skater with the highest International Scores if they have to choose between 2 or more who are in the same Group, while it is my view that they will, instead, choose the higher ranked skater from Nationals when they have 2 or more skaters in the same Group.

In the long run, this could all wind up being a hypothetical exercise. I suspect that, with the exception of Pairs, there will be only 3 skaters/teams in Groups 1-3 for each discipline and their work will be very easy, and in Pairs, they'll just go with the top ranked team not named K/F.

 

[Tahuu]

@Karen-W, forgive me, but it feels like you’re applying different standards for men, women, and dance. If it’s important to develop young skaters with potential for the future, it’s important in all disciplines, not just men, but somehow, the arguments in favor of Ilia have been far more forceful than any I’ve seen in favor of Lindsay (thanks, @wickedwitch!) or G/P (who are actually out there competing as seniors this year).

Beyond that, you seem to have specific requirements for Jason to make the team (medal contender - no, contribution to team event - no, already been - yes, leading to the need to justify why he deserves to go) that you don’t apply to anyone else. For H/B, it seems that the desire of their fans to see them at the Olympics is reason enough to send them over G/P. Leaving aside the fact that if Vincent comes down with the flu on the day of the team event, they’re gonna need someone to replace him and I’m pretty sure it won’t be Nathan - why shouldn’t Jason go? As an elite competitive athlete, I’m sure his goal would be to have the skates of his life and improve on his 2014 finish. No different than anyone else. Surely that’s enough.

@her grace, my comment wasn’t meant to diss Polina or her accomplishments. She’s been held up in this thread as an example of the US sending athletes who are “our future” as justification for sending an up and coming athlete like Ilia instead of Jason. The implication of the arguments is that Ilia is the next Nathan and a potential future world & Olympic medalist and Jason is, as @Tahuu so rudely put it, a “goner.” As much as Polina accomplished, she was never a world or Olympic medalist. So by that standard, she’s not a good “model” to justify sending Ilia. That’s all I meant.

I guess wishing Vincent sick so Jason may take part in the team event is not rude. The fact is Ross was gone after the 2018 Nationals, a goner, likely foreseen by USFS, mind you.

 

[Tavi]

The committee is going to do what it wants, regardless of scoring trends if there are multiple competitors in the same group. My guess is that they won't care much about whether Jason's median score is 30 points higher than Jimmy or Ilia if they beat him at Nationals. Same goes for, say, Starr Andrews or Sierra Venetta in the women... if they finish top 3, they're probably getting named to the Olympic team ahead of another woman whose median scores are 15-20 points higher. Same for Green/Parsons. The criteria is written in such a way that Top 3 at Nationals gets a skater/team into Group 3 and that puts that skater on an even footing with other skaters who have the international scores.

To put our different views into simpler terms... it is your view that the Selection Committee will select the skater with the highest International Scores if they have to choose between 2 or more who are in the same Group, while it is my view that they will, instead, choose the higher ranked skater from Nationals when they have 2 or more skaters in the same Group.

In the long run, this could all wind up being a hypothetical exercise. I suspect that, with the exception of Pairs, there will be only 3 skaters/teams in Groups 1-3 for each discipline and their work will be very easy, and in Pairs, they'll just go with the top ranked team not named K/F.

Yes, it’s absolutely hypothetical - of course it is! Isn’t that what we do here?

I actually have no idea what the committee will do or what will matter the most to them and your interpretation could very well be right. But I don’t think it’s clear. If I recall, the selection document says Nats scores will be considered separately from season scores, but it doesn’t say how they interrelate. Depending on how you got into a given priority group - high season scores, a high score at Nats, or both - the results could be very different for different people in different disciplines, depending on how you weigh them. I would guess they’d want to avoid discrepancies between disciplines, but no idea how.

I will say that if it were me, yes I would consider the scoring trends over the season at least as much as how the skater did at Nats. That’s still quite vague, but my feeling is that if they’re essentially just going to go by the top 3 scores at Nats, and the rest of the stuff is just window dressing, they wasted an awful lot of time and energy on that selection document. I think it was designed to give the committee guidance (or cover) if and when they face another Ross Miner 2018 / Mirai Nagasu 2014 situation. But I still have no clue how they’ll apply it.

 

[beckab81]

All in all, what I think it really boils down to is Jason isn't a medal contender and has already been to the Olympics and he won't contribute to the Team Event so why does he need to go again?

Under that criteria, Mirai didn't need to go to the Olympics in 2018 because she had already been. Bradie & Karen don't need to go to Beijing. I think this would kill the motivation of top athletes.

Ultimately, I expect USFS to go with whoever places higher at Nationals between Ilia and Jason. Personally, I'd prefer to see Jason's performances at the Olympics, but a LOT remains to be seen.

 

[toddlj]

I disagree... it would need to be a commanding lead. If Ilia finishes 1 point ahead of Jason? Given Jason's track record and multiple high scores this year? They'll send Jason.

 

[Tavi]

I guess wishing Vincent sick so Jason may take part in the team event is not rude. The fact is Ross was gone after the 2018 Nationals, a goner, likely foreseen by USFS, mind you.

@Tahuu, your English is quite good but you’ve misunderstood. That was a hypothetical, not a wish that something bad happen to Vincent, and no rudeness was intended. If you’ve ever worked in business, you will know that companies have to do what’s called contingency planning- that is, anticipate and plan for risks. The only reason I mentioned Vincent is because he is likely to skate the FS in the team event; if he were unable to compete for any reason, the USFS would have two choices: Nathan or skater #3. Given that Nathan is a contender for the individual gold medal, I think it’s unlikely (though not impossible) that USFS would ask him to also skate the FS. Therefore, in order to minimize risk, USFS will want to take that into account in its selection process. There’s probably only a tiny chance something like that would happen, but tiny isn’t 0, and the USFS would be very short sighted if they didn’t even consider it.

Regarding your “goner” remark, my understanding was you were referring to Jason, not Ross; if I misunderstood, I apologize. Either way, though, calling someone a goner is kind of rude, at least to my ears. It sounds like you mean the person is old, ready to die, and has no worth or value whatsoever. With respect to Ross, he had had a really poor season and then had a brilliant skate at Nats; it was likely his poor results during the season that caused him to lose out on the team assignment. If you’re comparing him to Jason: we obviously don’t know yet how he’ll perform at Nats, but he’s had a very good season, and I think it would be pretty silly to say he has no value.

 

[yeslek]

But why? If Jason loses to one of those two in their, most likely (assuming Jason qualifies to the GPF and doesn't compete against Jimmy at Golden Spin), only head-to-head match-up of the season, then what reason is there to name Jason to the team? I think a lot is also going to depend on how the skaters perform at Nationals. If Jimmy or Ilia bring down the house and Jason is flat/skates poorly enough to lose to one of them, I'm not sure the Selection Committee is going to feel compelled to go against Nationals results for the #3 US man.

Lol what?!! The whole point of the system is so this isn’t just based on mine event. What reason is there?? He won two GP medals, has scored consistently well during the quad. Won a four continents medal..

 

[misskarne]

The idea that the second-most consistent US man of the last four years, who's done literally everything asked of him, and who this season has continued to score consistently high while medalling at both GPs and (likely) qualifying for GPF, should be tossed aside for an unproven sixteen year old who has yet to show any kind of consistency or any kind of result on the Senior circuit but apparently we should back because instagram videos is just...wild.

Jason has earned a whole lot more leeway than posters here are willing to give.

 

[Marco]

The committee is going to do what it wants, regardless of scoring trends if there are multiple competitors in the same group. My guess is that they won't care much about whether Jason's median score is 30 points higher than Jimmy or Ilia if they beat him at Nationals. Same goes for, say, Starr Andrews or Sierra Venetta in the women... if they finish top 3, they're probably getting named to the Olympic team ahead of another woman whose median scores are 15-20 points higher. Same for Green/Parsons. The criteria is written in such a way that Top 3 at Nationals gets a skater/team into Group 3 and that puts that skater on an even footing with other skaters who have the international scores.

To put our different views into simpler terms... it is your view that the Selection Committee will select the skater with the highest International Scores if they have to choose between 2 or more who are in the same Group, while it is my view that they will, instead, choose the higher ranked skater from Nationals when they have 2 or more skaters in the same Group.

In the long run, this could all wind up being a hypothetical exercise. I suspect that, with the exception of Pairs, there will be only 3 skaters/teams in Groups 1-3 for each discipline and their work will be very easy, and in Pairs, they'll just go with the top ranked team not named K/F.

From a different angle, the criteria is also written in such a way that other skaters who have the international scores gets a skater/team into Group 3 and that puts that skater on an even footing with Top 3 at Nationals.

Just think though - did USFS do this entire exercise to ensure top 3 at Nationals get their spots at the Olympics ahead of other skaters with more and consistent international success, or to ensure other skaters with more and consistent international success get their spots at the Olympics ahead of top 3 at Nationals? What did they do in the Ross vs Adam situation? Or the Ashley vs Mirai situation in 2014?

Pending JGPF, Ilia did not match one single score from Jason in the relevant period, and trailing by some margin too. It is so simple to dismiss Ilia (hypothetically) beating Jason at Nationals as a one time thing, especially if the margin was not large, just like they did with Ross beating Adam, or Mirai beating Ashley. Now if Ilia makes a splash at JGPF and then solidifies himself at Nationals like Polina Edmunds, Jason better make sure he squeezes out every single point possible.

 

[VGThuy]

Ilia’s one senior competition so far this season didn’t really make a case for him. It shows that if he makes mistakes he won’t score as well as Jason if Jason makes mistakes…actually Jason has room to make even more errors. Now, his JGP Austria scores were comparable to Jason’s Skate Canada scores considering Ilia isn’t allowed to do quads in the SP. But then Jason didn’t do quads either and was able to score ten points higher, kind of showing that Ilia has to skate harder to score what Jason can score. That being said, if Jason continued skating like he did in Skate Canada (he skated about 6 points higher in NHK), while Ilia’s scores were climbing and he hit like near or over a 100 in TES at the JGPF and then does it again at Nationals while Jason falters, then that’s another story.

However, if we’re thinking that way, then it’s only fair to talk about Jason with a ratified rotated quad or a Jason who skates well in both segments of the competition. If he continues to do so and does so at Nationals, I don’t see Ilia overtaking him just yet without scoring near 100 TES at JGPF and a inspired knock out skate at Nationals. A very clean Jason is still a force to be reckoned with domestically and is able to score in the 270 range internationally, putting him on the edges of a top 5 finish depending on how everyone else skates.

In other words, unlike the hyped posts earlier in the pre-GP season, Ilia has work to do. Some of his supporters made it sound like he’d just waltz in and put the current top three American men to shame - like he would have it so easy. Well, one comp away from the GP series being concluded and that is far from the case right now. Jason is still quite in Ilia’s way and Ilia will need multiple excellent skates to be in consideration and Jason probably needs to cast doubt with bad skates.

 

[Tahuu]

@Tahuu, your English is quite good but you’ve misunderstood. That was a hypothetical, not a wish that something bad happen to Vincent, and no rudeness was intended. If you’ve ever worked in business, you will know that companies have to do what’s called contingency planning- that is, anticipate and plan for risks. The only reason I mentioned Vincent is because he is likely to skate the FS in the team event; if he were unable to compete for any reason, the USFS would have two choices: Nathan or skater #3. Given that Nathan is a contender for the individual gold medal, I think it’s unlikely (though not impossible) that USFS would ask him to also skate the FS. Therefore, in order to minimize risk, USFS will want to take that into account in its selection process. There’s probably only a tiny chance something like that would happen, but tiny isn’t 0, and the USFS would be very short sighted if they didn’t even consider it.

Regarding your “goner” remark, my understanding was you were referring to Jason, not Ross; if I misunderstood, I apologize. Either way, though, calling someone a goner is kind of rude, at least to my ears. It sounds like you mean the person is old, ready to die, and has no worth or value whatsoever. With respect to Ross, he had had a really poor season and then had a brilliant skate at Nats; it was likely his poor results during the season that caused him to lose out on the team assignment. If you’re comparing him to Jason: we obviously don’t know yet how he’ll perform at Nats, but he’s had a very good season, and I think it would be pretty silly to say he has no value.

Just admit your Vincent sick hypothesis is what you hope for. Your mind is totally wrapped in Jason to not understand whom I referred to as a goner in the Ross vs Ilia comparison.

 

[VGThuy]

Just admit your Vincent sick hypothesis is what you hope for. Your mind is totally wrapped in Jason to not understand whom I referred to as a goner in the Ross vs Ilia comparison.

Tahuu, with all due respect, I do not believe for a moment that @Tavi was wishing for anything like that. We are all talking team selection and she brought up a great point that having Jason on the team can provide a great alternative for the team event in case Vincent or Nathan for some reason cannot do it…assuming they were the first choices.

 

[Karen-W]

The TE FS scenario of "Oh, noooooos, what if Vincent gets sick and we have to use our #3!!!" is a red herring, IMO. The USFS would gladly sacrifice the possibility of team gold and settle for silver if they have to put their #3 man in the FS instead of Vincent. Jason's best FS score is good enough, in all likelihood, for 3rd in the TE FS. Ilia could land anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the TE FS depending on both how well he skates as well as the other men. Even gifting Japan with those 4 points still probably isn't enough for the US to lose silver.

And, really, with the likely men in the TE FS (Kagiyama/Uno, Kolyada, Messing, & Jin), Jason could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th. It's a total crapshoot and we know it. But, the points differential probably isn't enough for it to make a difference which guy is our 3rd man and reserve for the TE should Vincent get sick.

 

[Tahuu]

Tahuu, with all due respect, I do not believe for a moment that @Tavi was wishing for anything like that. We are all talking team selection and she brought up a great point that having Jason on the team can provide a great alternative for the team event in case Vincent or Nathan for some reason cannot do it…assuming they were the first choices.

Saying my “goner” as referring to Jason or Ross as someone ready to die is an intentional mischaracterization. Clearly when we were talking about skating and sports a “goner” is referred to someone no longer has a chance to succeed.

 

[Karen-W]

Saying my “goner” as referring to Jason or Ross as someone ready to die is an intentional mischaracterization. Clearly when we were talking about skating and sports a “goner” is referred to someone no longer has a chance to succeed.

Hmmm... my interpretation of "goner" has always been "gone at the end of the season". Not that they necessarily no longer have a chance at success but that they are at the end of their career.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Saying my “goner” as referring to Jason or Ross as someone ready to die is an intentional mischaracterization. Clearly when we were talking about skating and sports a “goner” is referred to someone no longer has a chance to succeed.

Sorry, but that’s not what that word is taken to mean in English. It’s a strange and very harsh word to use in this situation. “Goner” means about to die.

It’s totally understandable that English may not be your first language, but the word you chose does read that way to people who speak English so it’s natural they’d take it that way.

 

[Tahuu]

Hmmm... my interpretation of "goner" has always been "gone at the end of the season". Not that they necessarily no longer have a chance at success but that they are at the end of their career.

When comparing Ross to Ilia, when/if they won/wins a silver/bronze, I think the former was seen no longer had much a chance to succeed at the Olympic stage but the later still has a chance. That’s why I said Ross was a goner in 2018 and Ilia maybe not in 2022.

 

[Tahuu]

Sorry, but that’s not what that word is taken to mean in English. It’s a strange and very harsh word to use in this situation. “Goner” means about to die.

It’s totally understandable that English may not be your first language, but the word you chose does read that way to people who speak English so it’s natural they’d take it that way.

goner: someone or something with no chance of surviving or succeeding

How could a goner in sport referred to dying make sense to you?

 

[Tavi]

Just admit your Vincent sick hypothesis is what you hope for. Your mind is totally wrapped in Jason to not understand whom I referred to as a goner in the Ross vs Ilia comparison.

No, Tahuu, it’s not what I hope for, and you must have quite a sad life if that’s what you expect of people.

 

[MacMadame]

The idea that the second-most consistent US man of the last four years, who's done literally everything asked of him, and who this season has continued to score consistently high while medalling at both GPs and (likely) qualifying for GPF, should be tossed aside for an unproven sixteen year old who has yet to show any kind of consistency or any kind of result on the Senior circuit but apparently we should back because instagram videos is just...wild.

Jason has earned a whole lot more leeway than posters here are willing to give.

So if Jason totally bombs and comes in 6th (or lower) he should just get the slot anyway? I don't think so.

The way I see it is:
Jason in 4th - he gets to go, no question
Jason in 5th - maybe he goes
Jason in 6th - no way he goes

and that jives with what a lot of people are saying - all the speculation I've seen is about Jason in 5th (or lower) not about him in 4th or 3rd. (or hell, 2nd if Zhou or Nathan totally implode)

Now I think the chances that he gets lower than 5th are pretty slim but this is all idle speculation so why not speculation about even the unlikely occurrences?

 

[BittyBug]

Miner wasn't sent because the only success in his portfolio that year was nationals. He had the skate of his life and it was an amazing moment, but he bombed on the GP and USFS was looking for a consistent track record. Malinin is different because he has been doing well on the international circuit this season, even if it's at the junior level.

Anyway, I don't see Malinin passing Brown unless Brown completely tanks or is injured. Jason may not have quads (or at most, has one iffy quad), but he usually maxes out the rest of his elements.

 

[Tavi]

The TE FS scenario of "Oh, noooooos, what if Vincent gets sick and we have to use our #3!!!" is a red herring, IMO. The USFS would gladly sacrifice the possibility of team gold and settle for silver if they have to put their #3 man in the FS instead of Vincent. Jason's best FS score is good enough, in all likelihood, for 3rd in the TE FS. Ilia could land anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the TE FS depending on both how well he skates as well as the other men. Even gifting Japan with those 4 points still probably isn't enough for the US to lose silver.

And, really, with the likely men in the TE FS (Kagiyama/Uno, Kolyada, Messing, & Jin), Jason could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th. It's a total crapshoot and we know it. But, the points differential probably isn't enough for it to make a difference which guy is our 3rd man and reserve for the TE should Vincent get sick.

Red herring? Sorry, don’t really agree. You’re looking at it strictly from a points perspective, which is way too narrow.

Pretty much every athlete who’s ever described their first Olympic experience talks about how overwhelming it is, how nothing can prepare you for it, etc, etc. In a situation like that, are you really going to throw a newbie in to pinch hit at the last minute? He might not be able to lose that many points for the team, but how do you think he’s going to feel if he underperforms badly, which is not exactly far fetched? Do you think maybe there’s a reason why they might not want to put a 16-year old kid in that position?

 

[Karen-W]

goner: someone or something with no chance of surviving or succeeding

How could a goner in sport referred to dying make sense to you?

So, here's the Dictionary.com definition of goner:
noun Informal.
a person or thing that is dead, lost, or past recovery.

@Theatregirl1122 is absolutely correct in her definition of the word as a colloquial, slang term. I understand what you are saying but I don't think I've really heard it used in a sports term to mean "no chance of succeeding/surviving". I think I maybe have heard it used in baseball play-by-play as a call for a home run, as in "that's a goner!" meaning it's gone out of the park. It's just not really a term that I feel is used in American sports terminology.