But the top ranked have the right of first refusal to skate in both or just SP or just FS or none. If they’d ranked in your order and Nathan would pick the short and Vincent would take the long, then Jason would get nothing.
USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics
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MacMadame
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That's how USFS had done it in the past but that doesn't mean they have to do it that way or they will do it that way.
That’s in the linked document in the OP.
VGThuy
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In a world where the USFS prioritizes the team
Event and had total control over the selection rather than go nearly strictly by individual competition/team’s preference, either way, I’d want Nathan in the team event and I think the second ranked man should do it too. If we were to do the third man should do the TE (not sure why we’d do that and not allow either the first or second ranked man a chance to win a team medal) then this is how I would do it:
If Jason is the “third” man, I’d feel safer if he did the SP. The SP only has three jumping passes and Jason tends to rank high if he does a great SP due to his extremely high (and deserved) GOE and PCS. It’s the LP with more jumping passes where he tends to fall in rank. I know what you’re thinking. There are only five men in the LP, but if it’s a race for gold between Russia, every ranking counts.
If Vincent was the third man, I’d feel safer if he did the LP. I have no doubt in my mind with Vincent’s ambitious jump content that he’d have a better chance to rank well with less of a risk to fall in rank. He’s done it before in the past where the opposite (well in the SP and fall in the LP) only happened once at 2018 Worlds when he was 17 and a first time senior. Most of the time, his high BV in the LP let’s him place well in the LP.
ETA: If it’s a choice between Jason doing the LP and Vincent doing the LP, I’m going to go with Vincent. As for the SP, I’m the opposite but then I’m in favor of whoever is ranked higher doing the portion Nathan Chen doesn’t want to do. You never know. Mirai hit her LP in the team event, the Marrieds helped save team USA last time and scored higher than a bunch of teams who have consistently beat them and are seen as vastly superior in the SP of the team event, and Nathan botched the SP giving him a mental block for the Olympics individual SP where if the men skated as well there as they did at 2021 Worlds, he could have placed outside of the top 24 too.
Event and had total control over the selection rather than go nearly strictly by individual competition/team’s preference, either way, I’d want Nathan in the team event and I think the second ranked man should do it too. If we were to do the third man should do the TE (not sure why we’d do that and not allow either the first or second ranked man a chance to win a team medal) then this is how I would do it:
If Jason is the “third” man, I’d feel safer if he did the SP. The SP only has three jumping passes and Jason tends to rank high if he does a great SP due to his extremely high (and deserved) GOE and PCS. It’s the LP with more jumping passes where he tends to fall in rank. I know what you’re thinking. There are only five men in the LP, but if it’s a race for gold between Russia, every ranking counts.
If Vincent was the third man, I’d feel safer if he did the LP. I have no doubt in my mind with Vincent’s ambitious jump content that he’d have a better chance to rank well with less of a risk to fall in rank. He’s done it before in the past where the opposite (well in the SP and fall in the LP) only happened once at 2018 Worlds when he was 17 and a first time senior. Most of the time, his high BV in the LP let’s him place well in the LP.
ETA: If it’s a choice between Jason doing the LP and Vincent doing the LP, I’m going to go with Vincent. As for the SP, I’m the opposite but then I’m in favor of whoever is ranked higher doing the portion Nathan Chen doesn’t want to do. You never know. Mirai hit her LP in the team event, the Marrieds helped save team USA last time and scored higher than a bunch of teams who have consistently beat them and are seen as vastly superior in the SP of the team event, and Nathan botched the SP giving him a mental block for the Olympics individual SP where if the men skated as well there as they did at 2021 Worlds, he could have placed outside of the top 24 too.
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I think it’s just unlikely that the up and comers in men won’t likely consistently be posting high scores all season (I’m not even sure how many have multiple Grand Prix)
You may be right, but look at it this way: nobody thought Yaro would come out of nowhere last January to place third in the FS at Nats. Nobody thought Jason would have a skate for the ages at 2014 Nats, or that he’d struggle in the run up to the 2018 Olympics and then fall apart at Nats. For that matter, who thought Vincent would miss the FS at Worlds this year? True, most of those were one-off events, but Jason had sub par skates during much of the 2018 season. Stuff happens sometimes.
thvu
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Which is 100% what they’ll do if it comes to it.
VGThuy
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Which, IMO, is the step in the right direction. A team medal is an Olympic medal. If there's a chance to win one or a higher color one, then they need to take it seriously. I know we're at a point where we need to prioritize the mental and emotional health of the athletes and the history of this sport has been so individualistic that being NOT chosen for the TE will hurt (like being told we don't have faith in you as much as your competitor) and it will seem like the Fed is supporting another skater/team, but with a team aspect being introduced, that's just how it's going to be. The athlete will just need to have thicker skin and prove to the Fed they were worthy of being chosen too in the individual and look to the likes of Sotnikova who wasn't chosen by the Russian Fed to do the team event in Sochi when they won gold, but went off and won gold for herself.
I know there was talk of Adam being put on the team in 2018 to 'help' the US for their chances at bronze, which the medal was basically a given anyways, but I think this time around they will be much more serious about trying to go for gold. If Vincent is spot-on all season and makes the team, then maybe he will get to do one of the programs to give Nathan a break but I think Nathan ends up doing both programs when the USFS does the math and realizes that they may have a shot.
But is slating Nathan to skate in 4 programs over 6 days really worth the run at a team gold?
But is slating Nathan to skate in 4 programs over 6 days really worth the run at a team gold?
VGThuy
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I think if Vincent returns to form, where throughout the Fall, he shows he comfortably score within top three in the mens field overall and is close to hitting top 2 in the LP with his BV and execution of such, and if he skates well enough at Nationals to earn the spot, then I bet the USFS will be breathing a sigh of relief before choking again before his actual skate in the TE (if chosen to do it).
Also, what's the Olympic schedule again? I know there was some reshuffling and I don't remember if Men are still second out of all the disciplines or have moved to third in competition schedule.
As of now it's first, actually. Team event on Feb 4 and 6, mens individual on Feb 8 and 10.
With that in mind, I agree that the USFS is praying someone really steps it up as a clear and competitive #2 in the next few months.
VGThuy
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Geez! For some reason I thought the ice dance discipline was first this time around as a way to give the men more time to recover from the team event since they pushing the technical to the extreme these days. Not to say ice dancers aren't either, but you know what I mean.
thvu
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And for pairs and ladies, Russia will most likely be first with subs too. SinKats will do both, and I imagine this means Kolyada does too (sigh…)
Firedancer
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Especially with the men being the first event, I really don’t think Nathan will do both programs in the team event. I expect he will do the SP and let someone else do the FS. If he skates well during the fall, I would think Vincent would do the FS because of his scoring potential.
Karen-W
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Currently it's Team, Men, Dance, Women, Pairs.
I would love it if the USFS took the Team Event seriously this year since there is an outside shot at gold for the USA.
If Vincent has a solid fall and is showing that he can consistently score as well as Yuma, Yuzu, and Shoma in the FS, he will get the FS nod over Nathan in order to give Nathan a breather between the two events. The US needs every point it can get in both Men and Dance to offset the lead that Russia will have in Women and Pairs for the Team event. And, with Men and Dance being the first two events after the Team Event, if we have a 1-2 punch of Nathan & Vincent and H/D & C/B that prove they are going to finish 1st, no worse than 2nd, in whichever segment you put them in, then we will see the Women and Pairs as the ones who aren't substituted out, especially if Alysa is scoring consistently as high as any of the Japanese women. Pairs, the US is, realistically, going to finish no higher than 3rd in either segment unless China fails to make the FS portion.
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• If the top-ranked athlete/team elects to compete in both segments, the
second- and third-ranked athlete will not compete in the Team Event.
• If the top-ranked athlete/team elects to compete in only one segment, the
second-ranked athlete will have the option to participate in the other segment
(if the U.S. qualifies for both segments) despite the preference provided in the
Team Event Preference Form. However, the athlete has the option to decline
participation in the Team Event.
o If the second-ranked athlete/team opts out of competing in the Team
Event, the third-ranked athlete/team will be nominated to compete in the
other segment despite the preference provided in the Team Event
Preference Form. However, the athlete/team has the option to decline
participation in the Team Event
************
No, you won't find a scenario saying in spirit that we can pick the 3rd ranked athlete over you as the 2nd ranked. Instead it explains why you have to skate the FS or the SP or both over your preference.
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Karen-W
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I agree about Pairs and Women, though some of that will depend on how China approaches the Team Event. If they send Sui/Han out for the SP, which is entirely possible since the Team SP is 2 weeks before the Pairs SP, then Russia could easily finish 2nd. A better than expected 3rd place finish in both Pairs segments by the US team would put the US just 3 points behind Russia, and that's assuming 1st in Women, 3rd for the Men, and SinKats finishing one place ahead of H/D and C/B in both segments. But, say either H/D or C/B beat SinKats in one segment? That would leave a 1 point margin for gold and, again, that's relying on a 3rd place finish in the Men. Or, heck, what if SinKats finish two spots below the US dance team in one segment? Gilles/Poirier will, one must assume, be Canada's dance team entry in at least one segment (probably both, TBH); and if France qualifies for the Team Event, PapCiz won't have a choice but to at least compete in the RD.
Maybe?
Pairs - Russia will be first if S/H don't skate for China in either segment.
Women - Agree. I'd be shocked if a Russian woman doesn't win both segments and they'll sub in.
Coco
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I feel like Rika could win the SP if stars align, but that's assuming she skates it
Yes, but I was talking about the section on page 15, which discusses ranking of the four disciplines and how USFS strategy for medals in both the individual and team events may cause it to make decisions / assignments “contrary to the Team Event Preference Form.” Whether that extends to assigning the third ranked skater in one discipline, say, to the team event SP over the preference of the second ranked skater, I can’t say. But it seems possible.
Edited to remove strike through in text.
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Karen-W
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The 2021 Other identified ISU events is actually crystal clear in the USFS document. They link to ISU Comm 1629 (World Standings and Season's World Ranking) and if you scroll down to Section C it defines what are "other identified ISU events" in points 1.4 and 1.5:
It seems pretty clear to me that both Cranberry Cup and LPIDI fall under the "other identified ISU events" category and US Classic will as well, same with the John Nicks Pairs Challenge.
I agree with your interpretation of the document. It explicitly states:
Basically if you aren't Nathan you probably aren't going to be able to call the shots in the Team Event and you'll skate where the USFS wants you to skate in order to maximize podium potential. If it's better to have Alysa skate both of the Women's segments then she'll skate both; and if it's better to split Hubbell/Donohue and Chock/Bates in the dance segments depending on how each team is scoring compared to the rest of the dance field in the RD and FD, then they could assign both teams, regardless of how that impacts their individual event.
The last may be one of the reasons why an athlete could be entered to compete in a segment that was not indicated by his/her Team Event Preference Form. It's not a reason to pick a lower ranked skater over a higher ranked to the team event. If you believe so, can you find a hypothetical that USFS would use it to pick a third ranked over a 2nd ranked skater?
Karen-W
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But that wasn't the original comment you were responding to from @Tavi - you're making this about the the lower ranked skater being selected for the Team Event over a higher ranked skater when it's not - it's about which individual skaters/teams would be better choices in one segment over another regardless of their preference.
To use Ice Dance as an example -
During this quad we have had seasons where either Chock/Bates or Hubbell/Donohue were routinely outscoring the other in one segment and trading placements. C/B better in the RD, H/D better in the FD, and they were beating other the other top teams in the world in one segment but not the other. Why, in a scenario where one of those teams is clearly besting the likes of SinKats, PapCiz, GilPoi and GuiFab in the RD while the other is clearly besting those same teams in the FD, would you not choose to use the stronger of the two teams in their stronger segment? That's a clear situation where the USFS says "yeah, no, #1 Team, we know you said you want to do both but, nah, #2 Team is stronger than you in one half of the competition and the scores have borne this out all fall, so #2 Team is doing the segment they're stronger in and you only get to do one segment." Theoretically, that's probably what should have happened in 2018 with the Shibs and H/D, though it probably wouldn't have made a difference between bronze and silver. This time, it COULD mean the difference between silver and gold, especially if one of those dance teams is consistently winning the RD or the FD and SinKats is finishing 3rd (or even 4th) in either segment (and this becomes even more critical if say, Italy or France makes the Team Free along with Canada).
A similar scenario might apply to the Men, if say, Nathan says "I want to do the SP" and the USFS determines that Vincent's SP scores put him in good contention to finish first but his FS scores are a little lower and could see him finishing in 2nd or 3rd while Nathan's FS scores are going to be hard to beat. Maybe the USFS goes to Nathan and says "we need you in the Team FS rather than the SP" and asks him to reconsider his preference. Nathan is the only US skater who I think will have his personal preference for the Team event honored, regardless of how it impacts the USA's chances at team gold and that is for two reasons - 1) he is the 3-time defending World Champ in his event and the strongest individual event medal contender, and 2) his individual event is the first one after the Team event.
The rest of the disciplines, if the USFS is serious about contending for gold, might not have the same leeway. At minimum, I expect that, should a scenario where C/B is clearly better in one segment of the dance competition and H/D is clearly better in the other, they'll have conversations pre-Nats with both teams and ask them to consider stating a preference to do only the stronger segment and let the other team compete in their stronger segment. But they've given themselves the right to override whatever the skaters put on their preference forms - and I don't think that was in the 2018 Olympic selection document, so they're clearly starting to take the team event more seriously.
There's never a point to argue about assigning a skater to one segment or another. That's as clear as the blue sky. From the beginning, it was about the possibility of assigning Jason to the team event over Vincent, if Nathan, Vincent, Jason were ranked as such. If we misunderstood the point of contention, then let's end it there.
Karen-W
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Well, to be fair, I do think there is a scenario where Jason could be assigned to the team event over Vincent, if Nathan, Vincent, Jason were ranked as such. Say Nathan says "I want to do the FS" and Jason's SP median score over the course of the season is higher than Vincent. In that scenario, would the USFS disregard the team members' preferences regardless of rank and put Jason in for the SP?
A similar scenario could play out on the women's side where Karen or Bradie wins Nats while Alysa is 2nd but Alysa manages, at at least one comp during the season to score equal to Worlds 2021 Top 3, which puts her in Group 2 while Karen or Bradie is also in Group 2 because their median total score is equal to Worlds 2021 Top 5. In a situation like that, you'd assume the National Champ is ranked #1 because all else is equal, right? So, what if the USFS can only put one lady in the team event because they're splitting the men and dance assignments? Alysa has a higher scoring potential in the SP if she gets her 3A back somewhat consistently, same in the FS - as evidenced by her ability to score equal to Worlds 2021 Top 3. Do you disregard the National Champ's preference to compete in the team event and put Alysa in no matter what?
I think the document does give just enough wiggle room to let the USFS decide which of the ranked skaters gets the assignments in the Team Event, regardless of what they put on their preference form, "in order to maximize podium potential."
kwanfan1818
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I think the chances of the US winning gold in the TE is about as theoretical/on paper as Canada's real chance in 2014. Although, in Beijing, I don't expect Russia to have it wrapped up mathematically before the last discipline skates the free.
VGThuy
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Great post overall and I agree with the strategy. I just don’t agree that it applied to ice dance in 2018. The Shibs consistently beat the other American ice dance teams in the SD going into Pyeongchang and only lost the SD to them at 2017 Worlds in a somewhat surprise result but the rest of the time, the Shibs came on top. Maybe one could make an argument for the FD since the Shibs uncharacteristically made major mistakes in the GPF and then Nationals there, but a solid skate from them throughout the season had them beating every team H/D would have beaten and what happened in the team event and individual, the Shibs placed behind V/M and then V/M and P/C and comfortably ahead of the rest overall as they had since 2016 4CC.
Karen-W
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Yes, I agree, the USA's chances of winning team gold is remote and would take almost a perfect storm of placements to happen. But, it's also hard to completely handicap the team event 4.5 months out since we don't know how things are going to shake out in dance and we don't know how much improvement our ladies have made in the off-season, nor do we know how hard China will be going in the Team SPs. Peng/Jin are more likely to finish between Russia and any US team but Sui/Han could easily win and decrease Russia's lead by a point. There are about a million variables right now that we'll have a better handle on by the time Nationals rolls around.
I agree that the Shibs were clearly ahead in the SD in 2018 and, based on what happened in the individual FD, putting them in both segments of the TE was the right choice but I do think that H/D were competitive enough with the Shibs that switching them out for the TE FD wouldn't have hurt the US, though it would have limited our ability to sub in for the Ladies, which probably did make a significant impact on the overall result.
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