ISU has cancelled 2021 Europeans, ISU Grand Prix Final, World Junior Synchro; Stockholm Worlds still on for now

[Vagabond]

If all the countries were competing at a fall qualifier with entrants based on their Nationals, how is that different from Worlds, except in name?

For starters, there might be only one entry per country for each event, not as many as two or three.

 

[tony]

This is why I think, if anything, the seasons best list needs to come into play for 2022. Let them compete in a fall season like usual. Make sure everyone competes at least 2 (or maybe 3) times, which isn't out of the question. Take the average of those scores, formulate a list. If you take 3 scores, there's a lower chance of one event skewing the whole thing, but it's an inevitable possibility no matter what. That could even happen at Worlds.

Create a system from those rankings that determines who gets 1, 2, or 3 spots immediately (ie., taking out all the excess skaters, nations need to have 2/3 skaters finish with placements totaling no higher than X-- this means if a nation has only one skater/team in that top group, there's only one spot given). These results will be compiled up until the end of the Grand Prix regular series/Challenger series in the fall. You could even cap it at, let's say max of 20 entries (ladies/men) via this method.

In the weeks between the GP #6 and GPF, determine the next skaters on the list who have not yet qualified 1 spot for their nation. Create a second competition either during the GPF or near it that has, let's say the next 18 nations in line in singles, and give 10 spots to the Olympics based on final standings there.

There are some details that would have to be worked out with a plan such as this, but the ISU is 100% capable of doing something similar rather than have EVERYTHING matter at a huge competition like Nebelhorn.

I'm a broken record with this point, but I don't think Worlds 2021 should determine Olympic spots anyways because it is pulling allocation numbers from two years ago (remember, KAZ technically has 3 entries to the ladies' event if they can get 3 with the TES score, CAN only has 1 mens entry, etc).

I think something like a culmination of events/procedures such as the one I outlined above will give us the strongest fields, anyways.

 

[Karen-W]

For starters, there might be only one entry per country for each event, not as many as two or three.

That would be the significant difference. Hasn't Nebelhorn Trophy always limited countries (except Germany, of course) to just one entry during the Olympic season since it is the qualifier? I don't think we'll see the feds, especially the ones who are likely to earn multiple spots in any given discipline, okay with waiting until September to hold a qualifier. Best case scenario, Worlds happens as scheduled. Worse case scenario, it's pushed out until April or May. Of course, this is all predicated on the 2022 Olympics going forward as scheduled. And who knows where the IOC is in its thinking there given the huge number of test events that have been cancelled this season.

 

[MsZem]

That would be the significant difference. Hasn't Nebelhorn Trophy always limited countries (except Germany, of course) to just one entry during the Olympic season since it is the qualifier?

Yes for the most part, but there were two Israeli men and two from Finland in 2013.

Of course, in the past only a single entry per discipline could be qualified via Nebelhorn, and only if that country did not qualify at Worlds. I'm not sure Nebelhorn would be up to holding an event essentially the scope of Worlds as the qualifier.

 

[Lemonade20]

For starters, there might be only one entry per country for each event, not as many as two or three.

Or they may have to increase by an extra spot in case someone test positive! How would that work??

 

[Vagabond]

Yes for the most part, but there were two Israeli men and two from Finland in 2013.

Of course, in the past only a single entry per discipline could be qualified via Nebelhorn, and only if that country did not qualify at Worlds. I'm not sure Nebelhorn would be up to holding an event essentially the scope of Worlds as the qualifier.

Beijing is required to host a test event before the Olympics. I think it should host the Olympic qualifier, which has previously been held in Vienna and Oberstdorf.

 

[Karen-W]

Beijing is required to host a test event before the Olympics. I think it should host the Olympic qualifier, which has previously been held in Vienna and Oberstdorf.

Why not just count CoC 2021 as their test event?

 

[tony]

Why not just count CoC 2021 as their test event?

It has to be the Olympic rink, which was different than the one used at Cup of China.

 

[Karen-W]

It has to be the Olympic rink, and under certain conditions IIRC

Makes sense. I'm also wondering if the timing would be too close to the Olympics.

Honestly, I think holding a test event in Beijing that meets all those requirements might be less likely than Worlds happening sometime this spring.

 

[cholla]

France is supposed to be doing test skates, though, and some of their skaters competed in Minsk this weekend.

There are talks about having Nationals held in February. Somewhere not yet decided as it is not easy to find a city and a rink that will agree to help with the organization. I assume we will learn more at next week test skate in Cergy-Pontoise.

 

[Dobre]

Jon has been very sick since the GP, which despite negative tests, seems to be remarkably C19 like.
He has only just got back on the ice and is limited in how much he can train.
If Nationals were not in less than 2 weeks, he wouldn't be on the ice.

So all 3 teams are struggling this season.

I had forgotten about Jon being sick now. (My best friend's mother-in-law had YKW symptoms which included 3 trips to the ER, a bad cough, and disorientation. All at the same time her daughter had been exposed at work. She was tested 3 times & they could not get a diagnosis).

Regardless, it is the Russian Fed that has had something approximating a full domestic season. In many cases, athletes that are competitive to make Russia's Worlds team have not.

 

[starrynight]

I think that if this was an event being run by a rich sport with multi-million dollar tv contracts, large salaries and being held somewhere like Japan, I'd think it was fine to proceed.

But this is a sport with very limited funds, no money to support athletes if things go wrong, and being held in a country that is world famous for its relaxed attitudes to containment.

I'm thinking of things like when Han Yan and Yuzuru Hanyu had that collision and there was no medical officer or anyone to intervene for a concussion protocol (or any even concussion protocol in place) to ensure their safety. That's peak ISU stuff.

Regardless, it is the Russian Fed that has had something approximating a full domestic season. In many cases, athletes that are competitive to make Russia's Worlds team have not.

Although we only know the Russian athletes that have had it. Many more from other countries may have. Papadakis/Cizeron had training heavily interrupted by it, but they didn't say until much later (when interviewed).

But I agree that the Russian athletes themselves haven't had a regular season. Almost all of the top names have had big interruptions due to illness.

 

[mjb52]

Again, the coverage of Sweden is biased to begin with, and in Australia especially so from what I've seen. I would focus on the event itself, and what the ISU can do to make sure it is held safely, not where it is being held.

 

[MacMadame]

Even if the world championships are held, it is very likely that they won’t be used as the Olympic qualifier.

I'd be extremely surprised if they held Worlds and didn't use it to qualify people to the Olympics in some way especially if it were postponed a month or two.

 

[mjb52]

To me it makes sense to use Worlds as a starting point for qualification but not an ending point. So some spots will be qualified through Worlds but there will be more qualifying opportunities in the fall, including for a country to qualify extra spots like if you have two but want a chance at three or things like that. That's the part which would be new and I think it's the only way to make things fair to countries like France and Canada (and whomever else, those are just the two that come to mind), with multiple high level skaters in some disciplines but that have been most impacted by cancellations this year. For sure it's complicated but no solution is going to be perfect.

 

[barbk]

Whether or not they would welcome a big fall qualifier sort of irrelevant. I think we are probably going to have to have one unless worlds can be run completely as normal because it’s likely that if there is any YKW affect on the world championships, it will not be reasonable to use it as the qualifier for the Olympics. Even if the world championships are held, it is very likely that they won’t be used as the Olympic qualifier.

Don't sports have to tell the IOC their qualifying criteria by a certain date? Have changes been made to that policy due to COVID?

 

[nickp]

It’s ridiculous and ends up hurting skaters fans and the sport as a whole

 

[hoptoad]

What is role of the IOC? Is there a deadline for the ISU to formalize changes in the way Olympic spots are allocated? (And have they changed anything for speed skating? Did they get their Worlds in last year?)

There's no perfect solution and there will be complaints about whatever is decided, but at some point countries at least need to know what the rules will be.

 

[Sylvia]

Don't sports have to tell the IOC their qualifying criteria by a certain date? Have changes been made to that policy due to *********?

The most recent 2022 Olympic Figure Skating qualifying document, dated 4 December 2019, was posted on FSU in this thread: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/threads/2022-olympic-qualifying-changes.106946/

 

[tony]

To me it makes sense to use Worlds as a starting point for qualification but not an ending point. So some spots will be qualified through Worlds but there will be more qualifying opportunities in the fall, including for a country to qualify extra spots like if you have two but want a chance at three or things like that. That's the part which would be new and I think it's the only way to make things fair to countries like France and Canada (and whomever else, those are just the two that come to mind), with multiple high level skaters in some disciplines but that have been most impacted by cancellations this year. For sure it's complicated but no solution is going to be perfect.

I don't agree solely because it's going to be a mess trying to figure out 'multiple spots' for countries that may not (be able to) attend 2021 Worlds. And then all of the Canadians who don't want Worlds to happen at all can maybe breathe a little easier?

Plus, I'd rather generate entries based on performances throughout the actual Olympic season rather than hand them out a year early, as is the procedure now. I think the ISU made the right decision in saying that skaters who would earn multiple entries for their country don't automatically earn the entry to the Olympics (ie. if two skaters for Japan earn a 3rd spot, 3rd skater still needs to qualify the spot via Nebelhorn or whichever competition is used), but they can further it now and experiment with a new idea during these unprecedented times, which should've been happening with many aspects of skating throughout this season.

I think finalizing a list of countries who will be at the Olympics by the end of the 2021 calendar year isn't that late. Countries are sometimes giving back spots late into the Olympic year anyways.

 

[tony]

Using my rambling post #152, let's look at the ladies' seasons best scores from 2019-2020, and just apply that highest-scoring total to my idea. We will pretend the below list was the average of three scoring events from September-December 2021.

Removing all of the skaters past #3 for each nation, if applicable, then you have this:

1 RUS
2 RUS
3 RUS
4 JPN
5 KOR
6 USA
7 USA
8 JPN
9 JPN
10 KOR
11 POL
12 USA
13 KOR
14 SUI
15 BLR
16 AZE
17 GER
18 FIN
19 EST
20 FIN

Applying the same rules to these placements as is used at Worlds (1-13 for three entires, 14-28 for two entries):
RUS - 3
JPN - 3
USA - 3
KOR - 2
POL - 1
SUI - 1
BLR - 1
AZE - 1
GER - 1
FIN - 1
EST - 1

For a total of 18 entries. Going further down the list to round out the suggested 20 that I mentioned in my post, you have:

21 ITA
22 BUL

That would be your initial 20. The remaining 10 spots could be determined at a competition either at the same rink as GPF or at a separate event.

I suggested 18 ladies/mens skaters (three warm-up groups) to fight for those spots, which would be:

CHN CAN FRA AUS HKG SLO HUN SWE LAT GBR MEX SGP NED CZE LTU ESP PHI SRB and that goes all the way down to #144 on the seasons best list, with a skater at 50/86 for SP/LP scores. Definitely giving plenty of skaters the opportunity to get to the Olympics.

Now, let's say a country like the USA hypothetically has two skaters whose placements total 13 or less, as they do here, which warrants 3 entries, but their next skater is quite far down the list. I think the rule that could be applied is that the country must appear one more time within the first 30 on the list in order to be able to get the spot. Same for Korea, who just narrowly misses out on 3 spots with 15 total points in this scenario above. Let's say they have only the skater in 5th and then no other skater appearing for quite a while. If they want 2 spots, their second-best skater needs to be within the top 30. Kurakova would be #11 on the list, for Poland, and just shy of earning two entries. If she were 10th, another Polish skater would have to appear within the first 30 countries/spots in order for the country to earn a second berth.

I don't think it's a horrible idea, to be honest. And for those of you that will start wailing about Canada only getting a chance at one entry- remember, this is using 2019-2020 data and all of my idea would be dependent on scores from September to December of 2021.

ETA- in the case of someone like Loena Hendrickx, she would have competed sometime in late 2021 and therefore would be on the list. If you're injured all the way up to the Olympics, tough luck.

ETA2- or another option is just to give every single country in the top 20 the amount of spots based on the times they appear, up to 3, so South Korea would have 3 entries and Finland somehow narrowly comes away with 2 in this idea. Then Italy and Bulgaria would be thrown into the 'needs to qualify' group and PHI and SRB would be out. (This idea doesn't work so well in pairs, where the majority of the spots would already be filled).

 

[Gris]

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/25293-2362-decisions-of-isu-council-december-10-2020/file

Nebelhorn Trophy 2021 is going to be the qualifying competition for the 2022 Olympics.

The Council decided that, in accordance with ISU Regulations, Rule 400, paragraph 4, the Nebelhorn Trophy 2021, to be held on September 22-25, 2021 in Oberstdorf, Germany, will serve as the Figure Skating Qualifying Competition for the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

Also:

• No draw will be held for FS/FD at Stockholm Worlds, just the reverse order of SP/RD results
• Procedure of obtaining Worlds MTS will be changed to be more flexible
• Numbers of coaches and team officials at Worlds are reduced

ETA: The ISU didn't say Nebelhorn would be the only qualifier so maybe it will again serve as the additional one and there's nothing new here. See @Debbie S and @tony 's posts below.

 

[Vagabond]

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/25293-2362-decisions-of-isu-council-december-10-2020/file

Nebelhorn Trophy 2021 is going to be the qualifying competition for the 2022 Olympics.

It would appear that either Cup of China of the Grand Prix Final will have to be the Olympic test event and will therefore be staged at the Olympic venue.

 

[Frau Muller]

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/25293-2362-decisions-of-isu-council-december-10-2020/file

Nebelhorn Trophy 2021 is going to be the qualifying competition for the 2022 Olympics.


Also:

• No draw will be held for FS/FD at Stockholm Worlds, just the reverse order of SP/RD results
• Procedure of obtaining Worlds MTS will be changed to be more flexible
• Numbers of coaches and team officials at Worlds are reduced

Sounds like “full steam ahead,” especially the bullets referring to Stockholm Worlds...let alone the info about Nebelhorn.

 

[Debbie S]

That's the doc from the Dec 10 meeting. I assume naming Nebelhorn as the Oly qualifier is the same as they've always done, nothing new (yet). It says their next meeting is Jan 28, so I assume that's when they'll make a decision on Worlds.

I noticed they also aren't allowing chaperones (i.e. skaters' family members).

 

[Colonel Green]

I’d suggest countries be allowed up to two entries at Nebelhorn, if they’re looking to determine multiple spots there. That would allow for calculations based on depth but without crowding with third entries; and trying to assign multiple spots based on only one competitor would produce odd outcomes.

 

[tony]

I’d suggest countries be allowed up to two entries at Nebelhorn, if they’re looking to determine multiple spots there. That would allow for calculations based on depth but without crowding with third entries; and trying to assign multiple spots based on only one competitor would produce odd outcomes.

Yes, but then you have 2 skaters potentially earning spots for 3, which is something they did away with going into this Olympics. If a country earned 3 spots with 2 skaters (or even 2 spots with 1 skater), a skater other than the one who earned the initial spot would have to go to Nebelhorn to officially qualify the additional spot for their country.

This is why I'm not so sure that a standard procedure, even if Worlds happens (without a full set of countries competing) will work.

 

[skategal]

I had a feeling Nebelhorn would be it.

What a kick ass competition that will be.

 

[Lemonade20]

Great news!!

 

[Gris]

I assume naming Nebelhorn as the Oly qualifier is the same as they've always done, nothing new (yet).

Ah, maybe that's the case indeed since the ISU didn't say Nebelhorn would be the sole qualifier.