Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[VGThuy]

One more caveat, the Shibs still have the highest international FD score of the U.S. teams this season so far...and last season...and the season prior.

 

[Frida80]

Except China and Japan won’t finish behind Israel in dance. That, combined with the potential of Russia passing Italy in the SD and/or the Japanese lady beating Kostner and Sui/Han winning the pairs short, I think China and Japan are in better shape for the top five.

I don’t think it’s a good possibility of a Japanese lady beating Kaetlyn in the short. She has like the second highest SP total in the world. Satako can’t get the components on her jumps, so her total can’t match Kaetlyn. Kaori won’t get the components. Then there’s the possibility that Carolina goes clean, she’ll outscore both of them. Not to mention that Satako gets underrotation calls on both her combo and her loop. I’d say it’s a good bet that Kaetlyn will be in second.

I’d also say that Nathan has a good chance at winning the SP. he’s gained components and has the highest base value.

I have some serious doubts about S/M doing the SP. Mostly because this is Aliona’s third Olympics and she has no intention of getting another bronze. The Pair competition is just after the team event. I think Germany will rest them.

 

[slipchuk]

Osmond often skates clean in the short program. And if she does, she will almost certainly beat all but possibly the Russian entrant. She will score very big in the short if she goes clean, she always does. I agree Kostner could quite possibly beat the Japanese entrant with a clean short too, depending which triple-triple she does, but even if she does an easier one Satoko could do it and easily be called for an <. I agree the projection to how likely the Japanese lady, particularly in the short program phase, is overly optimistic.

 

[Deleted member 40371]

Kostner has an advantage in her PCS score one Osmond, she will score on par with Medvedeva or higher. On top of that, Kostner has changed her SP jumps to 3F-3T and 3Lo... Osmond does a solo 3Lz jump, which will get a carrot and affects her GOE score... overall it means TES are similar and PCS is higher for Kostner... Kostner can beat almost everyone except may be a clean Medvedeva. As for Satoko, her PCs is not in the same level as Kostner and her GOE on jumps are going to be lower, she too will finish begind Kostner if all goes clean.

 

[Frida80]

Kostner has an advantage in her PCS score one Osmond, she will score on par with Medvedeva or higher. On top of that, Kostner has changed her SP jumps to 3F-3T and 3Lo... Osmond does a solo 3Lz jump, which will get a carrot and affects her GOE score... overall it means TES are similar and PCS is higher for Kostner... Kostner can beat almost everyone except may be a clean Medvedeva. As for Satoko, her PCs is not in the same level as Kostner and her GOE on jumps are going to be lower, she too will finish begind Kostner if all goes clean.

You mean a edge call instead of a carrot right? Kaetlyn almost never underrotates.

 

[Dobre]

I ran across this youtube video from Patrick Commentates Skating that explained a bit about how athletes will be selected for the team competition. (I assume it is referring to the selection for the U.S. Team only). Go to the 6:21 mark for the portion of the video discussing team selection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BoBipvAdTI

 

[chapis]

Do you think that Evgenia will skate both segments?

 

[Frida80]

Do you think that Evgenia will skate both segments?

Nah... Zhenia for SP, Alina for LP. They're not taking chances like 2014.

 

[topaz]

Well the subs. can be used in ladies and mens. I can't see USFSA allowing Nathan their best hope at a gold medal having ot skate 4 competitive programs in a week and a half.

Also, if the Shibs skate both sections in the team event, that means the USFSA would leave their reigning US champions out of the team event. Do I think the USFSA would do this, absolutely.

 

[VGThuy]

Well the subs. can be used in ladies and mens. I can't see USFSA allowing Nathan their best hope at a gold medal having ot skate 4 competitive programs in a week and a half.

Also, if the Shibs skate both sections in the team event, that means the USFSA would leave their reigning US champions out of the team event. Do I think the USFSA would do this, absolutely.

Why would they sub Ladies though? I think we need Bradie for the SP because if she doesn't fall, then her triples will be ratified and possibly get good GOE. Her PCS may lag but her job is to not fall behind in the SP. In the LP, they can use Bradie again and the worst she can do is 5th, but if she skates cleanly she can spoil for a higher placement if other skaters above her mess up.

As for ice dance, one guess is as good as the other. If any team does both events for ice dance, there will be people complaining because all three have consistently carried US figure skating for the past few seasons winning medals and even competitions all over the place. Even if they sub ice dance, that's still one internationally-respected and competitive team left out.

 

[topaz]

Do you think that Evgenia will skate both segments?

No, they don't need her too. Alina Z or Maria would be a great sub.

I think the OAR will use the subs for ladies and mens and pairs. I think Bobsolv. will skate both portions of competition.

 

[VGThuy]

No, they don't need her too. Alina Z or Maria would be a great sub.

I think the OAR will use the subs for ladies and mens and pairs. I think Bobsolv. will skate both portions of competition.

Since they can't sub three disciplines, which two would they sub before the third?

 

[topaz]

Why would they sub Ladies though? I think we need Bradie for the SP because if she doesn't fall, then her triples will be ratified and possibly get good GOE. Her PCS may lag but her job is to not fall behind in the SP. In the LP, they can use Bradie again and the worst she can do is 5th, but if she skates cleanly she can spoil for a higher placement if other skaters above her mess up.

As for ice dance, one guess is as good as the other. If any team does both events for ice dance, there will be people complaining because all three have consistently carried US figure skating for the past few seasons winning medals and even competitions all over the place. Even if they sub ice dance, that's still one internationally-respected and competitive team left out.

Because of us and the public would LOVE to see Mirai win a medal at the games.

 

[topaz]

Since they can't sub three disciplines, which two would they sub before the third?

OAR would use sub for ladies and pairs or men.

 

[Coco]

I'm guessing ladies and pairs, but S/B have such a strong political push this year, who knows?

Would be hard to imagine Eteri having to pick between her two.... depends on how euros goes, I guess.

 

[chapis]

Alina has been having problems with the short program, so I guess she'll skate the long program

 

[StitchMonkey]

Because of us and the public would LOVE to see Mirai win a medal at the games.

Or even more generally, the ladies is seen as the premier event so having two ladies medalist to marked rather than one might be seen as better somehow.

 

[Frida80]

OAR would use sub for ladies and pairs or men.

Men and dance.

 

[screech]

I'm guessing Canada will sub ladies (I'm predicting Kaetlyn for the SP, Gabby for the LP).
Patrick wants to do both SP and FP, so no sub for men.
V/M have said they're interested in doing both, but I think Canada has more strong dance teams than pairs teams, so my preference would be to sub dance, but I could see them subbing pairs instead.

 

[Dobre]

V/M have said they're interested in doing both, but I think Canada has more strong dance teams than pairs teams, so my preference would be to sub dance, but I could see them subbing pairs instead.

As much as I LOVE Weaver & Poje, I think that ship sailed with Andrew's twizzles at Internationaux de France and Nationals.

Canada won't put up Gilles & Poirier. They've lost to both Russian dance teams this season as well as the top Italians, plus have a lower SB score in the free than the second Italians.

 

[Coco]

I would think they have to sub ladies, because how do you fairly deny either Gaby or KO a chance at a medal?

Then they will probably sub pairs to give D/R a rest since they have an outside to decent chance at an individual medal.

 

[Braulio]

Now that almost all the entire field for the Olympics is set (europeans to decide some spots) but speaking of team competition and of course waiting for team members but I have made some (in my mind) logical team designations or at least the ones more logic in this scenario

Short Dance
1 Papadakis/Cizeron FRA 10
2 Virtue/Moir CAN 9
3 Shibutanis USA 8
4 Bobrova/Soloviev OAR 7
5 Anna/Luca ITA 6
6 Muramoto/Reed JPN 5
7 Wang/Liu CHN 4
8 Min/Gamelin KOR 3
9 Lorenz/Polizoakis GER 2
10 Tankova/Zilberberg ISR 1

Pairs Short
1 Sui/Han CHN 10
2 Aliona/Bruno GER 9
3 Tarasova/Morozov OAR 8
4 Meagan/Eric CAN 7
5 Vanessa/Morgan FRA 6
6 Nicole/Matteo ITA 5
7 Knierims USA 4
8 Conners/Krasnopolski ISR 3
9 Suzaki/Kihara JPN 2
10 Kim/Kam KOR 1

Men Short
1 Yuzuru JPN 10
2 Chen USA 9
3 Chan CAN 8
4 Boyang CHN 7
5 Kolyada OAR 6
6 Bychenko ISR 5
7 Cha KOR 4
8 Rizzo ITA 3
9 Besseghier FRA 2
10 Fentz GER 1

Ladies Short
1 Medvedeva OAR 10
2 Osmond CAN 9
3 Kostner ITA 8
4 Miyahara JPN 7
5 Tennell USA 6
6 Meite FRA 5
7 Li CHN 4
8 Choi KOR 3
9 Schott GER 2
10 Buchannan ISR 1

After Short Programs
1 Canada 33 Q
2 OAR 31 Q
3 China 26 Q
4 USA 25 Q
5 Japan 24 Q
-----------
6 France 23
7 Italy 22
8 Germany 14
9 Korea 11
10 Israel 10

Onto the Free Skates

Pairs Free
1 Sui/Han CHN 10
2 Stolbova/Klimov OAR 9
3 Seguin/Bilodeau CAN 8
4 Knierims USA 7
5 Suzaki/Kihara JPN 6

Free Dance
1 Virtue/Moir CAN 10
2 Bobrova/Soloviev OAR 9
3 Chock/Bates USA 8
4 Muramoto/Reed JPN 7
5 Wang/Liu CHN 6

Ladies Free
1 Zagitova OAR 10
2 Daleman CAN 9
3 Sakamoto JPN 8
4 Tennell USA 7
5 Li CHN 6

Men’s Free (This was extremely difficult to project!!)
1 Uno JPN 10
2 Chan CAN 9
3 Kolyada OAR 8
4 Rippon USA 7
5 Boyang or Han Yan CHN 6

And... Final Standings

Gold: Canada 33+8+10+9+9= 69
Silver: OAR 31+9+9+8+10 = 67
Bronze: Japan 24+6+7+10+8 = 55
4th China 26+6+6+6+10 = 54 *
4th USA 25+7+8+7+7 = 54 *

* In this case a virtual tie, don't know how they break it, via total points?

Though is a projection/prediction totally personal but I think:

- Canada needs Virtue/Moir for BOTH segments and Patrick to be at his A game if only for this competition. Also need some outside help like Aliona/Bruno to skate in the Team Competition for the germans.
- USA needs Shibutanis also for both segments OR split with Hubbell/Donohue since they have been in front of Bobrova/Soloviev and a second place in the free dance could mean the bronze for the americans (and help the canadian cause for gold) I dont see Chock/Bates beating the russians. Tennell is not looking like a BIG factor but still her consistency could add if somebody else falters specially in the free skate portion.
- Sui/Han have all the hopes of China to get a potential bronze medal if they win the pairs short and long programs and have a healthy Boyang Jin peaking again at the right time.
- Japan needs Yuzuru to test himself and could get benefit of doing the Short Program, Uno could win the Free Skate with a 2-3 quad program.
- OAR squad needs Kolyada to be at his best, the short program can give them a good position but free skate is the main issue with Mikhail where he could end up even in fifth. Zagitova + Medeveda help their cause tremendously, pairs should be split given the competition so close. S/K and T/M could be switch for SP or FS though I don't see causing a big movement to standings anyway.
- Watch out for France if Vanessa/Morgan skate an incredible SP they could bump Japan out of the free skates BUT they need Papadakis/Cizeron to do the SD and win this portion.

I can imagine other scenarios but competition this time will be extremely intense and very very close anyway!

 

[Braulio]

I haven't seen this thread before, I created one with my projection

https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/threads/projected-team-event-competition.102980/

 

[Vagabond]

Austman FTW!!!

 

[Debbie S]

Your projections don't include Ladies FS.

I think all U.S. dance teams could beat B/S (C/B beat them at CoC when B/S skated clean). But unless Nathan agrees to skate both programs - I'm sure USFS would like him to, not sure he and Raf are keen on the idea, and I agree with them...why risk injury/fatigue when he has a shot at an individual medal, esp since he has mentioned a recent foot injury - they will only be able to use 1 dance team, my guess would be the Shibs. I think Adam could beat Kolyada, unless Kolyada has the skate of his life.

Given the way Patrick skated at Canadians, I'm not sure I'd pencil him in for 2nd in the FS.

 

[floridaice]

Got to wonder, injury wise, if Hanyu and Med even skate the team event. Two schools of thought -- they need the competitive practice (neither does really), vs. don't need to push things physically. Not like they don't have teammates who can pick up the slack.

 

[screech]

Patrick usually has his better skates around mid-season (TEB in 2013, Canadians most years), so having had just 2 major competitions so far, Olympics would be his usual 'mid-season'. Hoping it goes that way, at least...

 

[Braulio]

Your projections don't include Ladies FS.

Given the way Patrick skated at Canadians, I'm not sure I'd pencil him in for 2nd in the FS.

Done! I forgot to add Ladies FS

And yes, that's why I said he needs to skate like this was his final competition or at least the one where he has a realistic shot of taking a medal, a GOLD medal

 

[Debbie S]

Done! I forgot to add Ladies FS

Mirai will allegedly be skating the FS. I'm actually surprised they are not using Mirai for both segments, but I can understand them wanting to give Tennell a chance, plus she has been consistent in the SP all season.

 

[Braulio]

Mirai will allegedly be skating the FS. I'm actually surprised they are not using Mirai for both segments, but I can understand them wanting to give Tennell a chance, plus she has been consistent in the SP all season.

I still think that Mirai/Bradie at the Free Skate wont make an impact whoever skates it, 4th place is what they could finish behind the top 3 I projected even if they are switched too but I don't see them ahead of any current canadian/russian/japanese if they skate clean

So if Mirai is doing Team then the Shibs will have to do Ice Dance, I can't see Nathan being forced to do SP & FS