Worlds 2019 Top 5 Ladies

[haribobo]

Who will make top 5?

 

[briancoogaert]

I have no clue about the order, but I'm fairly sure it will be :
Zagitova, Kihira, Samodurova, Miyahara and Sakamoto.
Maybe Tennell instead of Miyahara, depending on the UR calls !

 

[Bonjour Sherry]

Any combination of the three Japanese, three Russians, and Tursynbaeva (and MAYBE Tennell if she skates really well and has 100% clean jumps).

I'm going to bet Kihira and Miyahara are most likely to win.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I think Bradie could be as high as 2-3 after the SP but her free is her weaker thus taking her to 5th at best overall.

Ill say Kihira, Sakamoto, Zag, Sofia #2 and Tennell or Medev. Tursy being spoiler. My dream spoiler is Lil Sis 2.0.

 

[tripleflutz]

Any combination of the three Japanese, three Russians, and Tursynbaeva (and MAYBE Tennell if she skates really well and has 100% clean jumps).

I'm going to bet Kihira and Miyahara are most likely to win.

I do not see Miyahara winining unless it a splatfest. Even if she somehow made all her jumps perfectly with no errors or calls which she almost never manages, at the very least all of Kihira, Zagitova, Medvedeva would still need to make a lot of mistakes for her to win. Which atleast is probably likely for Zagitova, not sure on Medvedeva who I really think is on the upswing again. And then of course the matter she is very unlikely to make all her jumps with no edges calls or underrotations even if she sort of skates "clean", in which case atleast 4 others can beat her.

Judges do not give her the highest PCS in the field even if arguably they should, they never do, and many women can outjump her even on her best day.

 

[Bonjour Sherry]

I do not see Miyahara winining unless it a splatfest. Even if she somehow made all her jumps perfectly with no errors or calls which she almost never manages, at the very least all of Kihira, Zagitova, Medvedeva would still need to make a lot of mistakes for her to win. Which atleast is probably likely for Zagitova, not sure on Medvedeva who I really think is on the upswing again. And then of course the matter she is very unlikely to make all her jumps with no edges calls or underrotations even if she sort of skates "clean", in which case atleast 4 others can beat her.

Judges do not give her the highest PCS in the field even if arguably they should, they never do, and many women can outjump her even on her best day.

I don't agree, Miyahara has been getting higher PCS than Medvedeva for most of the season. The event is Kihira's to lose, but she can't bomb in the short. Sakamoto has a chance but she isn't consistent enough, and it doesn't look good that Mihara recently beat her in 4CCs. The only person who will beat clean Miyahara in PCS is Zagitova and maybe Kihira.

 

[tripleflutz]

I don't agree, Miyahara has been getting higher PCS than Medvedeva for most of the season. The event is Kihira's to lose, but she can't bomb in the short. Sakamoto has a chance but she isn't consistent enough, and it doesn't look good that Mihara recently beat her in 4CCs. The only person who will beat clean Miyahara in PCS is Zagitova and maybe Kihira.

Of course since Medvedeva has been having meltdowns all season. She will not get higher PCS than even a semi clean Medvedeva. I gaurantee that, just by their history. Not even in Japan. But even if she did, a cleanish Medvedeva would get higher TES no matter how well Miyahara skates for herself, so it doesnt matter.

Of course Medvedeva skating cleanly given her season is iffy at best, but Miyahara almost never skates truly clean either without edge calls or underrotations even in her good skates as I said.

And a good Medvedeva would certainly get higher PCS than Zagitova, she always has even when losing to her last year, and she certainly will this year with Zagitova's awful Carmen program. So if you admit Zagitova will get higher PCS than Miyahara then Medvedeva skating reasonably well would for sure as well since Medvedeva skating fairly well will definitely be beating Zagitova in PCS (regardless which version of Zagitova shows up, I sense a disaester for her at worlds but that is another topic). If Medvedeva skates half decently (for the first time this season outside of Russian cup and maybe Skate Canada LP) and is somehow beaten by even a perfect Zagitova in PCS I will only conclude Eteri is even more powerful than I already credit her with and has successfully blackballed Medvedeva with the insiders in Russia, but I doubt that as she wouldnt have been named to worlds questionably if she were.

I stand by what I said Miyahara has no shot at winning unless the event is a massive splatfest. She might medal, I wouldnt pick her to medal but she is a contender for sure for a podium along with atleast a half dozen girls, but honestly I give Kaori a stronger shot than Miyahara at the moment. Particularly since a truly clean skate without edge calls or underrotation calls isnt a fantasy for her unless Satoka. I give Sofia higher odds to medal than Satoko too, again mainly since it is far easier for her to skate truly clean than the girl prone to underrotation and edge calls even on her good days, and isnt that nightmare caller the one for worlds? Even if she is Japanese, that isnt good news for her if she is.

 

[giselle23]

I don't agree, Miyahara has been getting higher PCS than Medvedeva for most of the season. The event is Kihira's to lose, but she can't bomb in the short. Sakamoto has a chance but she isn't consistent enough, and it doesn't look good that Mihara recently beat her in 4CCs. The only person who will beat clean Miyahara in PCS is Zagitova and maybe Kihira.

Since when has Satoko gotten high PCS? She is continually underscored in PCS given her musicality and the quality of her performance. Medvedeva OTOH will always get high PCS if she skates clean.

 

[Bonjour Sherry]

Since when has Satoko gotten high PCS? She is continually underscored in PCS given her musicality and the quality of her performance. Medvedeva OTOH will always get high PCS if she skates clean.

Look at scores during the Grand Prix series events. Satoko was getting higher PCS than Evgenia. Although I agree Satoko still deserves more PCS.

Evgenia has been getting lower PCS all season internationally and more scrutiny on jumps, because I think she lost political favor. With Zagitova struggling and Tuktamysheva out, that might change though.

 

[tripleflutz]

Medvedeva might have lost some political favor since she is on the outs with queen Eteri which is always dangerous in Russia. It is impossible to tell until she truly skates well again though. I do not think she would have been sent to worlds when they could have easily justified not sending her if she were really that far out of favor, which makes me think when she skates well again we will see very high PCS once again.

And giselle is right Miyahara is always undermarked on PCS for the quality of her programs and overall elegance and musicality. I do not see the judges giving her higher PCS than a good Medvedeva at all, a Medvedeva (or Zagitova) messing up on 3 or 4 jumps, yeah good shot of higher PCS then, but that goes along with what I said of Miyahara only winning world if it is a splatfest already. In a fair world Zagitova especialy would never get higher PCS than Miyahara even with a good skate, but that is not reality.

 

[quartz]

I didn’t choose Bradie in my top 5 so I am expecting her to win now because I fully suck at making predictions.

 

[giselle23]

Look at scores during the Grand Prix series events. Satoko was getting higher PCS than Evgenia. Although I agree Satoko still deserves more PCS.

Evgenia has been getting lower PCS all season internationally and more scrutiny on jumps, because I think she lost political favor. With Zagitova struggling and Tuktamysheva out, that might change though.

Her PCS has been lower because of her loss of confidence and mistakes. Satoko’s PCS is low even when she is clean. How many times has she been scored above 72 (9) in the long program? Compare that to Med’s record (not just this season).

 

[caseyedwards]

I don’t know.

1-JPN
2-JPN
3-RUS
4-JPN
5-USA

 

[DimaToe]

All I know is to expect Kihira to make a comeback in the FS like always. This truly is a very unpredictable field. Makes it all so interesting.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

With all the back-and-forth the Russian Federation took deciding the third lady for their world team, wouldn't it be bizarre if Samodurova was the only one to make the top five.

 

[Vash01]

I am going to get hammered for not including Zagitova and Medvedeva.

I picked 'Other' and included EunSoo (sp?) of Korea.

The only justification for that is both have struggled this season and Alina may feel extra pressure as Russia's number one, and succumb to nerves, but I could be wrong. May be she will skate great and win a silver. Hard to tell how Zhenya will do, but she is mentally tougher than Alina. My gut feeling is that Sofia may not be as clean as she has been upto this point. Any mistake by her will open the door for either Alina or Zhenya.

Out of the Japanese ladies, Miyahara may get lower political favors because she is their Number three.

I think EunSoo is a rising star in Korea and she has the potential to skate well. So I added her name (I just wanted to include an unexpected name instead of going for the most obvious ones).

 

[Bonjour Sherry]

I picked 'Other' and included EunSoo (sp?) of Korea.

I would love to see this happen, but she'll need a clean short and at least six clean triples in the long.

 

[Spun Silver]

I'm going with the majority except that I fear Satoko is struggling to keep up in this age of super-jumpers, and I think Tursy now has a not-so-secret weapon that could land her in the top 5.

 

[all_empty]

Don't kount out Kaori.

 

[Spun Silver]

Don't kount out Kaori.

If you look at the poll results, not many are counting out Kaori.

 

[Finsta]

If Tursy lands quad at worlds would she win just for that jump?

 

[Vagabond]

If Tursy lands quad at worlds would she win just for that jump?

Probably not. At Four Continents, she lost 4.85 points in TES and had an additional one-point deduction for falling on that quadruple salchow and finished 14.53 points behind Rika Kihira.

 

[Dobre]

Miyahara's LP PCS at Skate America was 70.85.

For the record, that is higher than any female athlete at Europeans or 4CCs.

 

[tripleflutz]

My guess for top 5 is something like:

1. Kihira
2. Medvedeva (and will win her 3rd title if Kihira makes mistakes, not a big Med. fan but she will skate very well at worlds, you will all see)
3. Samodurova
4. Sakamoto
5. one of Miyahara, Zagitova, or Tursynbaeva I am guessing. I am feeling a meltdown for Zagitova coming on though so it all depends how much the judges protect her on more of her ridiculously bloated undeserved PCS

 

[Maximillian]

I'm pretty sure all three Japanese ladies will make top 5, with probably two on the podium, but which ones will place where is not easy to call. I actually think of all three Japanese ladies, Satoko is the most likely to wind up on the podium, but not likely to be on top of the podium.

I, like everyone else, have been pretty high on Kihira all season and think if she hits both programs she'll win, however I'm more than a little concerned by the PCS she received at Challenge Cup.

I don't know what to make of the Russian ladies right now, Zagitova has done nothing lately to give me any confidence that she can win here, however, I still find it unlikely that she won't wind up, at least in the top 5. I don't see Samodurova on the podium, yet and while I'm a big Zhenya fan, I have my doubts about the podium and actually didn't pick her to make the top 5.

Tennell could maybe sneak into the top 5, but she has to hit both programs and that hasn't been happening lately.

 

[sharsk8s]

Not that I am predicting this will happen because I know Zagitova has been all over the place this season but if she manages to put together two semi-clean performances she will surely land herself in the top 3. I really hope we don't see her meltdown again. I am not her biggest fan but it is sad to see someone so young and talented struggle

 

[Vagabond]

Not that I am predicting this will happen because I know Zagitova has been all over the place this season but if she manages to put together two semi-clean performances she will surely land herself in the top 3.

"Semi-clean" may not be good enough for her any more.

 

[olympic]

Here are the best international scores w/ only Worlds remaining [cross-out those not participating] -

1 Alina Zagitova RUS 238.43 2018 NT
2 Rika Kihira JPN 233.12 2018-19 GPF
3 Alexandra Trusova RUS 221.44 2018 JGP Lithuania
4 Satoko Miyahara JPN 219.71 2018 SA
5 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS 219.02 2018 NHK
6 Alena Kostornaya RUS 217.98 2018-19 JGPF
7 Kaori Sakamoto JPN 213.90 2018 SA
8 Sofia Samodurova RUS 213.84 2019 Euros
9 Mai Mihara JPN 209.22 2018 NT
10 Elizabet Tursynbaeva KAZ 207.46 2019 4CCs
11 Bradie Tennell USA 206.41 2018 Autumn Classic
12 Anna Shcherbakova RUS 205.39 2018 JGP Slovakia
13 Evgenia Medvedeva RUS 204.89 2018 Autumn Classic
14 Loena Hendrickx BEL 204.16 2018 NT
15 Mako Yamashita JPN 203.06 2018 SC
16 Serafima Sakhanovich RUS 202.62 2018 Tallinn Trophy
17 Ting Cui USA 199.79 2018 Tallinn Trophy
18 Mariah Bell USA 198.96 2018 NHK
19 Anna Tarusina RUS 198.76 2018 Alpen Trophy
20 Anastasia Gubanova RUS 198.65 2018 Golden Spin

ETA - Zag was at her best at the beginning of the season, while Rika has more or less built momentum heading towards Worlds. So, Rika might be the prohibitive favorite. Janny's score is artificially low if you consider her performance at Russian Cup which means my prediction is -

1. Kihira
2. Zagitova
3. Medvedeva
4. Miyahara
5. Samodurova

Sakamoto and Tursynbaeva are outside shots at the top 5. I really would like to put Tennell in there somewhere, but ....

 

[tripleflutz]

I'm pretty sure all three Japanese ladies will make top 5, with probably two on the podium, but which ones will place where is not easy to call. I actually think of all three Japanese ladies, Satoko is the most likely to wind up on the podium, but not likely to be on top of the podium.

I, like everyone else, have been pretty high on Kihira all season and think if she hits both programs she'll win, however I'm more than a little concerned by the PCS she received at Challenge Cup.

I don't know what to make of the Russian ladies right now, Zagitova has done nothing lately to give me any confidence that she can win here, however, I still find it unlikely that she won't wind up, at least in the top 5. I don't see Samodurova on the podium, yet and while I'm a big Zhenya fan, I have my doubts about the podium and actually didn't pick her to make the top 5.

Tennell could maybe sneak into the top 5, but she has to hit both programs and that hasn't been happening lately.

It is interesting you have Satoko as most likely to make the podium of the 3 Japanese, even over Kihira, but you give the impression by your comments of not believing anyone but Kihira is capable of winning the event (unless you think Kaori also is).

 

[Maximillian]

It is interesting you have Satoko as most likely to make the podium of the 3 Japanese, even over Kihira, but you give the impression by your comments of not believing anyone but Kihira is capable of winning the event (unless you think Kaori also is).

Yeah, basically I think that Kihira is more likely to miss than Miyahara and as such to not place in the top 3. However, with that said, I think that Satoko has very little chance of winning the event, if that makes sense...