Which U.S. Skaters Will Make the Olympic Team and Should do the Team Event?

[SkateFanBerlin]

Contemplating the ease with which this statement dismisses Shpilband and his two-time world medalists with their #1 world ranking . . .

Chock & Bates? Not favorites, but don't mean to dismiss. Quirky the way the world rankings don't always parallel the winnings. I don't think anyone would say C&B tops V/M or P/C. Or would you? Anyway, I'm indifferent between the Shibs & C/B except that your team does make occasional costly errors. Yes?

 

[Debbie S]

Agree the U.S. will split ice dance in the team event. Last time, there was a clear #1 dance team so it made sense for them to skate both programs (and V/M were skating both programs). My guess is either C/B or H/D for the SD (the rhumba/Latin theme does not play to the Shibs' strengths) and the Shibs for the FD.

For men, I assume Nathan will do the SP (less wear and tear). I wouldn't venture to predict at this point which 2 of Jason, Adam, and Vincent will make the team (and then there's Josh...).

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

The point haul is the same in the short & the free. The cost of a low score is more severe in the short, and because of that, most teams are likely to put up their strongest athlete there. I think the chance of defeating China & Russia is better for the U.S.'s #2 in the free because we are more likely to see their number two athletes go up there. And you can't fall lower than fifth, which there is some potential for in the short (as Jeremy demonstrated in 2014). These are the men, after all. Though a healthy Han Yan and on-point Kovtun/Aliev/Samarin is no walk in the park either.

I see your point. Alas, I don't really understand how the points are awarded in the Team. Anyone have a link?

 

[chapis]

Agree the U.S. will split ice dance in the team event. Last time, there was a clear #1 dance team so it made sense for them to skate both programs (and V/M were skating both programs). My guess is either C/B or H/D for the SD (the rhumba/Latin theme does not play to the Shibs' strengths) and the Shibs for the FD.

Well, Hip hop did not seem to play the streghts of the Shibs but their SD was one of the best received dances. I agree that the fed should split it up.

 

[ilovepaydays]

I think USFS will (or should) split the dance part of the team event. I think H/D should have a better rhumba/Latin theme dance than C/B, but they need to be scored a lot higher than them internationally this fall for USFS to consider putting them in SD for the team event.

 

[tony]

I see your point. Alas, I don't really understand how the points are awarded in the Team. Anyone have a link?

As simple as can be. First place earns 10 points in the SPs, 10th place earns 1 point. Regardless of the spread of actual TSS points between the skaters. LP scoring is 10 down to 6, which I never quite understood and was hoping they would change this time around. Less exciting when there is less spread.

 

[tony]

I can see @Tony Wheeler's reasoning somewhat, and appreciate the clear amount of work he put into his argument, but I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that we'll see China submit a 1/1/1/1 team. They aren't going to be desperate for a team bronze unless this were the Beijing Olympics.

If one of Sui or Han get tired, it affects the team (2 people). The lifts, throws, death spiral, everything. The pairs get no time off at all, and it's more tiring to do lifts than pretty much any of the elements in figure skating. The men can scale back jump difficulty, the pairs can only scale back throws and jumps.

I'd imagine Hao Zhang/Xiaoyu Yu are going to work double-time this summer, this could be their only Olympic Games.

Yeah, I get it and I know that Hao Zhang is probably going to be thrown in to the mix to get a potential second medal because he's the grandfather and favorite. But I think that if the short programs go semi-predictable, that first place long for China in pairs becomes extremely important as does a good showing in the mens long, *especially* if Nathan Chen ends up doing only one program. I don't know why they would have Sui/Han compete at all if they are going to get extremely close to a bronze medal after the SP and then basically swap out the 'top' skaters and make the medal more difficult/much less likely to earn. We shall see.

ETA- wouldn't it be interesting if skaters such as Savchenko/Massot just skipped the team event all together which in turn benefited other skaters? In this case, probably Canada and the United States earning an additional point of their own. That's why I don't necessarily like the way everything is scored here. It reminds me of the ordinal system and the restrictions it had in movement of standings.

 

[misskarne]

For men, I assume Nathan will do the SP (less wear and tear). I wouldn't venture to predict at this point which 2 of Jason, Adam, and Vincent will make the team (and then there's Josh...).

And Max.

Throw him on the trash heap at your peril.

 

[tony]

And Max.

Throw him on the trash heap at your peril.

Since this thread is full of stats, Max's seasons best overall score in 2017 was 16 points below Zhou (his achieved in junior competition), 25 points below Rippon, and 31 points below Brown. This is completely independent of his Nationals showing.

Rather than try to shove his name into every conversation, why not let him surprise us all next year and come back a new well-rounded skater that really puts himself into contention? I wouldn't say he's an early favorite for one of those spots at this point, so I wouldn't be offended by someone not mentioning his name.

I actually root for Max quite a bit, but I think his case is the USFS once again overhyping someone way too much. In 2013, they were giving him outrageous PCS even by their standard and it had to help with his initial international PCS (also being National Champion), and then when he actually did improve as a skater, those marks went back down to 'normal' if there is such a thing, or at least more realistic with what he was presenting.

 

[Dobre]

that first place long for China in pairs becomes extremely important.

There are other ways for China to gain points, though.

I'm with you on Jin. Like Nathan, he has the potential to earn multiple points for China above Han Yan (who I would be happy to see healthy & on the team).

But I disagree with you about Sui & Han. Their placing first in the free is no more important than a one point advantage to be won anywhere else on the team. (Because, based on Worlds, there is evidence that Yu & Zhang have a mighty good shot at second in the free already).

I'd just pin my hopes on the Chinese lady besting Lecavelier for that extra point & call it even there.

 

[Karpenko]

ETA- wouldn't it be interesting if skaters such as Savchenko/Massot just skipped the team event all together which in turn benefited other skaters? In this case, probably Canada and the United States earning an additional point of their own. That's why I don't necessarily like the way everything is scored here. It reminds me of the ordinal system and the restrictions it had in movement of standings.

It'll benefit the other skaters only if Aljona/Bruno don't come into the Olympics as the reigning European/Grand Prix champions. then it won't be a clear advantage doing the team event for the other skaters - the judges wouldn't even dare forget them.

There are many golds to be had this year!

 

[misskarne]

Rather than try to shove his name into every conversation, why not let him surprise us all next year and come back a new well-rounded skater that really puts himself into contention? I wouldn't say he's an early favorite for one of those spots at this point, so I wouldn't be offended by someone not mentioning his name.

But it's okay for people to talk about Josh being on that Olympic team? Josh, who I love dearly, but who has been out for two whole years with a very serious injury, and has not set foot on competitive ice yet? Josh, for whom the only evidence that he will be competitive is the beautiful skating we remember and a few videos on instagram showing quads? I'm not supposed to be offended when people list Josh as a higher favourite for the Olympic team than Max?

I actually root for Max quite a bit, but I think his case is the USFS once again overhyping someone way too much. In 2013, they were giving him outrageous PCS even by their standard and it had to help with his initial international PCS (also being National Champion), and then when he actually did improve as a skater, those marks went back down to 'normal' if there is such a thing, or at least more realistic with what he was presenting.

What? Sorry, I must have missed the Nationals where he got 91 PCS for a jump-jump-stroke program? Or maybe I missed the Nationals where he slopped and fell his way through two programs and yet was somehow gifted the National title? Was I dreaming when he had the free skate of his life in Boston - on home soil - and yet scored two points lower in PCS than his PB, when everyone else was scoring higher (some ridiculously so)? If the way Max has been treated in the last four years is indicative of the USFS overhyping someone, I'd hate to see what they'd do to a skater they hated.

 

[Dobre]

It'll benefit the other skaters only if Aljona/Bruno don't come into the Olympics as the reigning European/Grand Prix champions. then it won't be a clear advantage doing the team event for the other skaters - the judges wouldn't even dare forget them.

No one is going to forget Savchenko & Massot, whether or not they win anything at all prior to the Olympics.

I think Tony meant that, without Savchenko & Massot to factor in the pairs SP, the Knierims & Canadian pairs teams would earn another point for the team (assuming those teams could defeat whoever replaced S&M for Germany). Just as the Chinese lady might earn another point for the team if Carolina did not compete for Italy. And as Japan likely would earn more points for the team if the Czech & Australian teams with their competitive pairs did not qualify at all.

I would like to see all the athletes compete if they have the chance!

Perhaps China will push to move the team event after the individual ones in 2022. I think they are the country that pays the biggest price by having it proceed the pairs.

 

[Karpenko]

Ok gotcha, I think I'm still just a bit revved up over the Meagan/Eric news, the competitiveness of the season has kicked into high gear. I'm sooo ready.

One thing that'll help Alexa and Chris is only having to go up against 1 from each country. I think 5/6 is the worst they can do in each portion, unless they completely bomb.

They really aren't all that far away from the top 5-8 pairs either, if they can get back into the shape they were in during 2016 4CC things could get interesting! They're capable of breaking through the same way James/Cipres did this past season.

Assuming Alexa and Chris make it though (I really hope they do).

 

[Debbie S]

@misskarne I have a suggestion: why don't you put every poster who (in your esteemed opinion) slights/insults any of your favorite skaters on ignore? That way, you won't have to be "offended" right and left, and you won't feel the need to disrupt the discussion with another tirade or snide remark.

 

[tony]

One thing that'll help Alexa and Chris is only having to go up against 1 from each country. I think 5/6 is the worst they can do in each portion, unless they completely bomb.

They really aren't all that far away from the top 5-8 pairs either, if they can get back into the shape they were in during 2016 4CC things could get interesting! They're capable of breaking through the same way James/Cipres did this past season.

Assuming Alexa and Chris make it though (I really hope they do).

The free skates only feature the top 5 countries after the short programs. If Japan makes it to the Final, and they are likely to do so, S-K/K are at worst 4th unless they miss nearly every element.

And I know I've had a million different thoughts in this thread but this is another reason I think that all countries should be able to skate in both programs. Keeping the same 10-9-8-7-6 pattern in the LP, the short program is actually where points can be really gained or lost, and that makes no sense. There is so much more spread in segment scores in the LP yet they end up all clumped together.

That's also why the competition was over before the Final event last time around.

 

[Dobre]

Chock & Bates? Not favorites, but don't mean to dismiss. Quirky the way the world rankings don't always parallel the winnings. I don't think anyone would say C&B tops V/M or P/C. Or would you? Anyway, I'm indifferent between the Shibs & C/B except that your team does make occasional costly errors. Yes?

I wouldn't. And I am not indifferent. I am very much Team Shibutani.

Zoueva & her three-time world medalists should be even more difficult to dismiss than C&B, in my opinion.

But I would expect that she & Shpilband will fight every bit as hard for their athletes as Rafael. And the dance teams have the world medals to back up their argument. (H&D show every sign of getting in this battle as well). At the moment, on paper, it's better for the U.S. team to put up two dance teams than two men and two ladies.

You may be absolutely correct that Raf won't "let" Nathan skate two programs. But there's a good chance that would mean passing the task to Ashley. (We could totally roll the dice on Karen, who I love, but WTT says that's probably not the wisest course of action).

All kinds of stuff may change during the season. By next February, we'll likely be talking about some very different athletes. But--you know--if we waited until fall to have this conversation, then what would we talk about now?

FYI, Chock & Bates batted about 50% with costly errors in at least one portion of competition this season. It should be an issue, IMO, but while my gut says they aren't likely to stay top two for the U.S. internationally if the trend continues, experience says they won't bomb at Nationals. They still finished as high at Worlds as Jason & Ashley, qualified for the GPF, medaled at 4CCs, and bested Hubbell & Donohue three out of four times this year. C&B lost to Bobrova & Soloviev four out of five times, Cappellini & Lanotte two out of three, and Weaver & Poje two out of four, but bested B&S four times, C&L two times, and W&P four times in the SD. We'll see how the season develops.

Note: While it's not to be expected, neither is it out of the question that one of the U.S. dance teams could defeat V&M or P&C, particularly during one portion of competition. The Shibs bested P&C in the short at the GPF. C&B bested V&M in the free at SC. H&D and C&B had higher tech scores in the SD than P&C at Worlds. If Bobrova & Soloviev and Cappellini & Lanotte could defeat P&C in the short at Europeans, then so could every one of these three U.S. dance teams. It just isn't the more likely scenario.