Which U.S. Skaters Will Make the Olympic Team and Should do the Team Event?

[Dobre]

I think two U.S. dance teams and Nathan up twice. Faint heart never won anything worth fighting for.

 

[tony]

When I crunched the numbers up earlier, I really now think that we may see Nathan competing in both programs. You know the USFS is also going to do a mock result and when they do, they are likely to see what I am projecting- a really close battle between USA and China. If Boyang Jin competes both programs and is on, he could really pull China past the USA if someone besides Chen competes in either program and doesn't pull huge numbers sometime this season prior to the Games. This also would suggest Sui/Han to compete in both portions of the pairs event. I'm sure China is going to be on top of this as well and will come to the same conclusion- use the same skaters in all disciplines for both programs (as they already have to in dance and ladies), and bronze is a real possibility.

The question would be whether Sui/Han go into the Olympics as the heavy favorites and if China would risk having them skate so close to the individual event. I know it sounds easy for us armchair fans to decide that they can pull through four programs, but it could still be a big risk.

 

[Karpenko]

China has more depth in pairs than the men's event though, I think if Yu/Zhang have a strong season the federation could use both teams to make them both tested for the individual competition. That'll depend on whether Yu/Zhang are competitive with the top Russian and Canadian teams next year though (or even maybe Peng/Jin). If that's the case they could go with 1 man/1 ice dance team.

Did China only qualify one lady? That'll change everything

 

[Dobre]

I think it is likely China has crunched the numbers & plans to bring Yu & Zhang out with tougher elements. Then China will crunch the numbers again.

Did China only qualify one lady?

Yes, one lady.

 

[clairecloutier]

I didn't even think about China earlier.

@Tony Wheeler How do you see China being so close to USA in the SP/SD? They will win pairs over us and possibly men, but we would win ice dance and ladies. I would think that Sui/Han's advantage over Knierims in the SP would be mostly offset by the Shibs' advantage over Wang/Liu in the SD. (But I haven't looked closely at any numbers.)

Is the team SD/SP score just the sum of all the individual scores of each team member?

 

[chameleonster]

I think the individual scores only factor in case of tiebreakers, otherwise its by placement.

 

[tony]

I didn't even think about China earlier.

@Tony Wheeler How do you see China being so close to USA in the SP/SD? They will win pairs over us and possibly men, but we would win ice dance and ladies. I would think that Sui/Han's advantage over Knierims in the SP would be mostly offset by the Shibs' advantage over Wang/Liu in the SD. (But I haven't looked closely at any numbers.)

With Japan, Germany, and probably two of Czech Republic, South Korea, and Australia competing in the team event, a 6th place or so for the Chinese dancers is certainly possible.

 

[Karpenko]

Yes, one lady.

Well there you have it, my head hurts.

So, it has to be two men and two pairs, because they seem to have no other choice.

So maybe if China goes with Han Yan in the long, using Jason/Adam/Vincent/Josh/Max wouldn't be a bad option. Are the teams allowed to see who the other teams are submitting in advance? That could also change the strategizing a bit, but then that's assuming some of the teams submit their roster before the others.

This is damn confusing.

 

[tony]

Well there you have it, my head hurts.

So, it has to be two men and two pairs, because they seem to have no other choice.

If they choose to substitute anyone. But I think after the short program, if Sui/Han can win that portion and Jin can be in the top 3, they will see the chance is very much alive to win a medal and not potentially throw it away with Zhang/whoever and Han Yan or the other Chinese man who goes.

 

[RoseRed]

It's also good to keep in my mind the emotional toll of the team event. For some skaters it might be helpful, to get rid of nerves, but I seem to remember Tessa and Scott saying that the hardest part of the team event for them wasn't the physical side, since they had enough time to recover, but that it was emotionally exhausting, or something along those lines. Which could have been part of Yulia's issue I suppose, so for the individual medal threats, you want them to be both physically and emotionally rested.

Which doesn't necessarily mean Nathan won't or shouldn't do both, but it's more than just the physical to be considered.

 

[Karpenko]

I wouldn't object to Sui/Han doing four programs, for the obvious, I want Aljona to be an Olympic Champion but I'd prefer them to be rested and at their best in the battle with Aljona/Bruno. (and the other top pairs)

I don't think Hao Zhang has stuck around this long to be benched for a potential team medal, especially since he's in his 50's and was 4th at Worlds this year with Xiaoyu Yu. That's a strong result and they could be a top pair next year. Why throw away depth?

The men's event I could see, but I've assumed this entire time that you absolutely have to split two of the events (if you have the entries in the individual event).

 

[clairecloutier]

Interesting thing with the Chinese pairs-- Sui/Han's SB score in the LP was about 14 points higher than "Zhang/whoever"'s. But Sui/Han's SB SP is only 5+ points higher than Yu/Zhang's.

So China could consider Yu/Zhang SP, Sui/Han LP. Both teams can pretty much do clean SPs in their sleep. OTOH, if you're looking at placements in the SP as most important (not points), Sui/Han almost certainly give you 1st place in SP, whereas I would see Yu/Zhang as 2nd, or maybe 3rd.

 

[tony]

So China could consider Yu/Zhang SP, Sui/Han LP. Both teams can pretty much do clean SPs in their sleep. OTOH, if you're looking at placements in the SP as most important (not points), Sui/Han almost certainly give you 1st place in SP, whereas I would see Yu/Zhang as 2nd, or maybe 3rd.

The Germans and Russians probably have a comfortable cushion over Y/Z. And if the Canadians (whoever competes) can go clean, they also could spoil. The French if they keep improving might even make it interesting. A difference between 1st and 3rd or 4th might be enough to determine the bronze medalists.. I really think it will be that close.

 

[clairecloutier]

Is Aliona even going to compete in the team event? She didn't in Sochi. If she didn't compete there, I don't know why she would here. I don't think the German team has any shot at a medal, so it probably doesn't make much sense for her to compete.

 

[Dobre]

I agree that it is way too early for this discussion. But it's summer & we're bored. If you want to see some actual "crunched numbers," here is a team scenario using this year's SBs. Feel free to correct my math. There are a lot of question marks, using these numbers; but it does allow for a place to start with conversation.

Is the team SD/SP score just the sum of all the individual scores of each team member?

It's all about placements. Are we still limited to a ten-team field? If yes, using this year's SB scores in the short:

Pairs SP
1. CHN Sui & Han 10 pts
2. RUS Tarasova & Morozov 9 pts
3. GER Savchenko & Massot (if they compete) 8 pts
4. CAN Duhamel & Radford 7 pts
5. FRA James & Cipres 6 pts
6. USA Scimeca-Knierim & Knierim 5 pts
7. ITA Marchei & Hotarek 4 pts
8. CZE? or AUS? Duskova & Bidar or Alexandrovskaya & Windsor (skipping Boudreau-Audet's SB score assuming they will not be eligible to compete for JPN based on citizenship) 3 pts
9. JPN Suzaki & Kihara 2 pts
10. KOR Kim & Kim (or Ji & Leftheris) 1 pt

Mens SP
1. JPN Hanyu 10 pts
2. USA Chen 9 pts
3. CAN Chan 8 pts
4. CHN Jin 7 pts
5. RUS Kolyada 6 pts
6. AUS? Kerry (skipping Bychenko providing ISR does not qualify in 3 disciplines) 5 pts
7. KOR Cha (he gets a lot more points in the SP with a senior program permitting a quad. Enough to catch Kerry. Not enough to catch Kolyada). 4 pts
8. FRA Besseghier 3 pts
8. CZE? Brezina (Labeling this #8 as well since this hypothesis is presuming either Australia or Czech Republic get in, but not both) 3 pts
9. GER Fentz 2 pts
10. ITA Righini 1 pt

Dance SD
1. CAN Virtue & Moir 10 pts
2. USA Chock & Bates 9 pts
3. FRA Papadakis & Cizeron 8 pts
4. RUS Bobrova & Soloviev 7 pts
5. ITA Cappellini & Lanotte 6 pts
6. CHN Wang & Liu (skipping Tobias & Tkachenko providing ISR does not qualify in 3 disciplines) 5 pts
7. JPN Muramoto & Reed 4 pts
8. GER Lorenz & Polizoakis 3 pts
9. KOR Min & Gamelin 2 pts
10. CZE? or AUS? (Mansour & Ceska/Kuzmichova & Sinicyn/any of Australia's current teams) 1 pt

Ladies SP
1. RUS Medvedeva 10 pts
2. CAN Osmond 9 pts
3. JPN Miyahara 8 pts
4. USA Nagasu 7 pts
5. ITA Kostner 6 pts
6. FRA Lecavelier 5 pts
7. KOR Park 4 pts
8. CHN Li (Either one. They are back to back). 3 pts
9. GER Schott 2 pts
10. AUS? Craine or CZE? Hanzlikova 1 pt

Total points after the short:
Canada 34 points
Russia 32 points
USA 30 points
China 26 points
Japan 24 points
---------------------top 5 qualify to the free
France 22 points
Italy 17 points
Germany 15 points
Korea 11 points
Australia 10 points
Czech Republic 8 points

(This may look very encouraging for the U.S. team & the short programs ARE very important for Team USA. Note, however, that it requires Mirai Nagasu to compete in the SP and Chock & Bates to defeat Papadakis & Cizeron--lovely World Team Trophy scores. But I totally support putting C&B/H&D up here and the Shibs in the free. If we haven't figured out that putting C&B up in an FD in team competition is a bad idea after 3 years of losing ground to W&P there, we deserve what we get).

Now things get tricky because it depends on who you put up & which disciplines you swap out. Using this year's LP/FD season's best scores & making the best judgment calls I could for each team based on what would be best for each team but allowing the maximum number of athletes for every team, except possibly the men's spot in China:

Pairs LP:
1. RUS Stolbova & Klimov 10 pts
2. CAN Seguin & Bilodeau 9 pts
3. CHN Peng & Jin or Yu & Zhang (they are back to back) 8 pts
4. USA Scimeca-Knierim & Knierim 7 pts
5. JPN Suzaki & Kihara 6 pts

Men's LP: (Scenario 1--with Nathan & Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. CHN Jin 9 pts
3. USA Chen 8 pts
4. CAN Chan 7 pts
5. RUS Kovtun 6 pts (Kolyada finishes here as well)

Men's LP: (Scenario 2--without Nathan & Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. CAN Chan 9 pts
3. USA Brown/Rippon/Zhou 8 pts
4. RUS Kovtun 6 pts (Kolyada beats Brown/Rippon/Zhou with his SB)
5. CHN Yan 5 pts

Men's LP (Scenario 3--with Nathan & without Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. USA Chen 9 pts
3. CAN Chan 7 points
4. RUS Kovtun 6 points
5. CHN Yan 5 points

Men's LP (Scenario 4--without Nathan & with Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. CHN Jin 9 pts
3. CAN Chan 8 pts
4. USA Brown/Rippon/Zhou 7 pts
5. RUS Kovtun 6 pts (with Kolyada, #4 & 5 swap and Russia gets 7 points and the U.S. gets 6)

Dance FD
1. CAN Virtue & Moir 10 pts
2. USA Shibs 9 pts
3. RUS Bobrova & Soloviev 8 pts
4. CHN Wang & Liu 7 pts
5. JPN Muramoto & Reed 6 pts

Ladies LP
1. RUS Medvedeva 10 pts (If Russia swaps ladies, they lose one spot by swapping her with Anna's SB or two if they swap her with Zagitova's/Radionova's)
2. JPN Mihara 9 pts
3. CAN Daleman 8 pts
4. USA Wagner 7 pts
5. CHN Li 6 pts

Total LP/FD Points using Men's scenario #1:
RUS: 34 pts
CAN: 34 pts
JPN 31 pts
USA 31 pts
CHN 30 pts

TOTAL SP & LP points combined:
CAN: 68 pts
RUS: 66 pts
USA: 61 pts
CHN: 56 pts
JPN: 55 pts

Random analysis you may feel free to ignore:

China gains two points by putting up Sui & Han in the free. China loses three points by swapping out Jin in the FP.

The U.S. loses 1 point should Chock & Bates lose to Papadakis & Cizeron in the SD. (U.S. loses a lot more should the U.S. team lose to Bobrova & Soloviev and Cappellini & Lanotte, but the U.S. teams are capable of getting this job done). The U.S. loses 1 point by swapping Nagasu's SB with either Wagner's or Chen's. The U.S. loses 2-3 points on top of that point by swapping out Nathan with Brown/Rippon/Zhou, depending on what Russia does with Kolyada/Kovtun.

While I do think Hubbell & Donohue are legitimate factors to make the team, their current SB scores do not. H&D's SB would lose the same likely spot in the SD to France as C&B or the Shibs. H&D's SB in the free would also lose one spot to Russia. Should Canada choose to put up Duhamel & Radford twice and swap Virtue & Moir with Weaver & Poje in the free, the Shibs' SB--and only the Shibs' SB--would gain a point.

Surprises:
So Youn Park has Korea's highest short program score. (Korea & Italy factor in the ladies SP).
Both Seguin & Bilodeau and Mirai Nagasu made "surprise" appearances on this list. Courtesy of scores dating clear back to the Autumn Classic.

I do think the Knierims may return to their quad twist, which would up their scoring potential in the LP. Still a big ask to pass China's #2 in the LP. Also quite plausible China's #2 passes Canada's #2 there.

 

[her grace]

After what happened to Lipnitskaya in the indv. event in Sochi, Russia may want to sub Med out in the LP. Let the man and dancers do double duty and sub ladies and pairs (T/M and S/K).

 

[tony]

Total points after the short:
Russia 42 points
Canada 34 points
USA 30 points
China 26 points
Japan 24 points
---------------------top 5 qualify to the free
France 22 points
Italy 17 points
Germany 15 points
Korea 11 points
Australia 10 points
Czech Republic 8 points

(This may look very encouraging for the U.S. team & the short programs ARE very important for Team USA. Note, however, that it requires Mirai Nagasu to compete in the SP and Chock & Bates to defeat Papadakis & Cizeron--lovely World Team Trophy scores. But I totally support putting C&B/H&D up here and the Shibs in the free. If we haven't figured out that putting C&B up in an FD in team competition is a bad idea after 3 years of losing ground to W&P there, we deserve what we get).

Now things get tricky because it depends on who you put up & which disciplines you swap out. Using this year's LP/FD season's best scores & making the best judgment calls I could for each team based on what would be best for each team but allowing the maximum number of athletes for every team, except possibly the men's spot in China:

Pairs LP:
1. RUS Stolbova & Klimov 10 pts
2. CAN Seguin & Bilodeau 9 pts
3. CHN Peng & Jin or Yu & Zhang (they are back to back) 8 pts
4. USA Scimeca-Knierim & Knierim 7 pts
5. JPN Suzaki & Kihara 6 pts

Men's LP: (Scenario 1--with Nathan & Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. CHN Jin 9 pts
3. USA Chen 8 pts
4. CAN Chan 7 pts
5. RUS Kovtun 6 pts (Kolyada finishes here as well)

Men's LP: (Scenario 2--without Nathan & Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. CAN Chan 9 pts
3. USA Brown/Rippon/Zhou 8 pts
4. RUS Kovtun 6 pts (Kolyada beats Brown/Rippon/Zhou with his SB)
5. CHN Yan 5 pts

Men's LP (Scenario 3--with Nathan & without Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. USA Chen 9 pts
3. CAN Chan 7 points
4. RUS Kovtun 6 points
5. Yan 5 points

Men's LP (Scenario 4--without Nathan & with Jin)
1. JPN Uno 10 pts
2. CHN Jin 9 pts
3. CAN Chan 8 pts
4. USA Brown/Rippon/Zhou 7 pts
5. RUS Kovtun 6 pts (with Kolyada, #4 & 5 swap and Russia gets 7 points and the U.S. gets 6)

Dance FD
1. CAN Virtue & Moir 10 pts
2. USA Shibs 9 pts
3. RUS Bobrova & Soloviev 8 pts
4. CHN Wang & Liu 7 pts
5. JPN Muramoto & Reed 6 pts

Ladies LP
1. RUS Medvedeva 10 pts (If Russia swaps ladies, they lose one spot by swapping her with Anna's SB or two if they swap her with Zagitova's/Radionova's)
2. JPN Mihara 9 pts
3. CAN Daleman 8 pts
4. USA Wagner 7 pts
5. CHN Li 6 pts

Total LP/FD Points using Men's scenario #1:
RUS: 34 pts
CAN: 34 pts
JPN 31 pts
USA 31 pts
CHN 30 pts

TOTAL SP & LP points combined:
RUS: 76 pts
CAN: 68 pts
USA: 61 pts
CHN: 56 pts
JPN: 55 pts

Random analysis you may feel free to ignore:

China gains two points by putting up Sui & Han in the free. China loses three points by swapping out Jin in the FP.

The U.S. loses 1 point should Chock & Bates lose to Papadakis & Cizeron in the SD. (U.S. loses a lot more should the U.S. team lose to Bobrova & Soloviev and Cappellini & Lanotte, but the U.S. teams are capable of getting this job done). The U.S. loses 1 point by swapping Nagasu's SB with either Wagner's or Chen's. The U.S. loses 2-3 points on top of that point by swapping out Nathan with Brown/Rippon/Zhou, depending on what Russia does with Kolyada/Kovtun.

While I do think Hubbell & Donohue are legitimate factors to make the team, their current SB scores do not. H&D's SB would lose the same likely spot in the SD to France as C&B or the Shibs. H&D's SB in the free would also lose one spot to Russia. Should Canada choose to put up Duhamel & Radford twice and swap Virtue & Moir with Weaver & Poje in the free, the Shibs' SB--and only the Shibs' SB--would gain a point.

Surprises:
So Youn Park has Korea's highest short program score. (Korea & Italy factor in the ladies SP).
Both Seguin & Bilodeau and Mirai Nagasu made "surprise" appearances on this list. Courtesy of scores dating clear back to the Autumn Classic.

I do think the Knierims may return to their quad twist, which would up their scoring potential in the LP. Still a big ask to pass China's #2 in the LP. Also quite plausible China's #2 passes Canada's #2 there.

Except Russia has 32 points after the short. I also think there are some situations where USA loses points to other countries (Kosnter ladies SP, etc) but we are on a similar page through most of the results.

You have Canada winning as well.

 

[Dobre]

Except Russia has 32 points after the short.

You have Canada winning as well.

Thank you. I edited Russia's totals.

Nagasu's SB in the short is above Kostner's. I pointed it out because it's not likely to play out that way in a head-to-head, but those were the numbers I crunched.

 

[tony]

Thank you. I edited Russia's totals.

Nagasu's SB in the short is above Kostner's. I pointed it out because it's not likely to play out that way in a head-to-head, but those were the numbers I crunched.

Totally understood. Just pointing out where I think China can catch the USA. Other. Big points would be not using Chen in both programs and/or the Chinese deciding to use Sui/Han for both. That alone could shift the results in China's favor.

 

[Karpenko]

Is Aliona even going to compete in the team event? She didn't in Sochi. If she didn't compete there, I don't know why she would here. I don't think the German team has any shot at a medal, so it probably doesn't make much sense for her to compete.

I don't think competing the short would hurt, it could lead to a PCS boost in the individual event, but I still completely agree.

The only reason I want Savchenko/Massot to do the team event SP, (two reasons) so people don't forget about them amidst the other top pairs, and to make a statement for the individual event.

And with a throw triple flip to see what they score in relation to Sui/Han, save the axel for the real thing. They should only do it if they'll water down the throw, if Aljona is unwilling to water down (I could see that), they shouldn't compete and risk injuring themselves a couple of days before it matters.

That throw isn't consistent yet at all (like the quads are for most of the men).

 

[Karpenko]

The Germans and Russians probably have a comfortable cushion over Y/Z. And if the Canadians (whoever competes) can go clean, they also could spoil. The French if they keep improving might even make it interesting. A difference between 1st and 3rd or 4th might be enough to determine the bronze medalists.. I really think it will be that close.

These scores you're comparing from Yu/Zhang (and kind of dismissively writing off) are from half a year skating together. Don't you think they have the potential to compete with the top Russian/Canadian pairs with some more time? They're pretty much already in that ballpark of scoring. They did beat Duhamel & Radford twice at big events last year, didn't they? I think you're kind of underestimating their potential, and just want to be "right". But then again we all do, that's what makes predicting this right now kind of impossible.

China only really has depth in pairs, that's it. They aren't going to withhold a medal for Hao Zhang after splitting up two of their top pairs.

 

[Karpenko]

I think that China would love a team medal here, but Sui and Han are World Champions and are China's biggest threat to win a gold medal. Gold is better than bronze. They absolutely won't compete them twice, especially since you're predicting a 1 ice dance team/1 lady/1 man/1 pair competing team. That's a very small team you're predicting compared to the other top countries, and the 2022 Beijing team competition is probably going to be much more important to China IMO (so they wouldn't risk Sui & Han because pairs is where their depth is at).

Volosozhar and Trankov should've done both programs in Sochi, but they went with Stolbova and Klimov who weren't even 4th at Worlds in 2013.. China has pairs depth.

 

[clairecloutier]

I do think you're right, @Karpenko, that China will prioritize Sui/Han individual gold over team bronze. Also agree that Yu/Zhangs scoring potential (already high) may well be even greater next year. Their quad twist will probably be stronger, I expect better programs, and their reputation factor will be higher too.

 

[Karpenko]

I can see @Tony Wheeler's reasoning somewhat, and appreciate the clear amount of work he put into his argument, but I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that we'll see China submit a 1/1/1/1 team. They aren't going to be desperate for a team bronze unless this were the Beijing Olympics.

If one of Sui or Han get tired, it affects the team (2 people). The lifts, throws, death spiral, everything. The pairs get no time off at all, and it's more tiring to do lifts than pretty much any of the elements in figure skating. The men can scale back jump difficulty, the pairs can only scale back throws and jumps.

I'd imagine Hao Zhang/Xiaoyu Yu are going to work double-time this summer, this could be their only Olympic Games.

 

[Karpenko]

I mean it sucks for Alexa and Chris, but they aren't World Champions in the individual event (or we'd probably have more than 1 pairs spot to begin with).

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

The original post sounds like projecting the US team. Ignoring who will actually go to Oly's and focusing on best chance of good short/long programs here's what I say

Ladies - Marai for short - that beautiful Chopin SP. Ashley for long - Even with 2 3-3's Ashley is falling behind technically. But, she will put out a reliable top 5 performance. Gracie, Karen, Mariah in one way or the other are too iffy at present.
Men - Ralf will not let Chen do both; too much punishment for one competition. Biggest point haul would be for him to do long. Jason has scored mid to upper 90's for short. As he is very dependable it doesn't leave the US too far behind going into long. So, Jason for short.
Pairs - I know nothing about it. So, of course I have an opinion. The Kinierem's did well considering the messed up season. They're not so strong to do both plus the non-team event. So the K's for one and someone else for thee other.
Dance - The top US tams are within a point or 2 of each other. Because the Shibs rarely make mistakes or experience injuries I nominate them for both SP & LP. This takes care of the 1 entry requirement.

The US will get at least bronze. If the Canadian ladies or Patrick have a bad day the US could get silver behind the Russians.

 

[VGThuy]

We only have one pairs entry so the Ks or which ever team gets the Olympics spot have to do both.

 

[Dobre]

Men - Ralf will not let Chen do both; too much punishment for one competition. Biggest point haul would be for him to do long. Jason has scored mid to upper 90's for short. As he is very dependable it doesn't leave the US too far behind going into long. So, Jason for short.

The point haul is the same in the short & the free. The cost of a low score is more severe in the short, and because of that, most teams are likely to put up their strongest athlete there. I think the chance of defeating China & Russia is better for the U.S.'s #2 in the free because we are more likely to see their number two athletes go up there. And you can't fall lower than fifth, which there is some potential for in the short (as Jeremy demonstrated in 2014). These are the men, after all. Though a healthy Han Yan and on-point Kovtun/Aliev/Samarin is no walk in the park either.

 

[Karpenko]

I agree that if a men's split takes place, Chen does the short.

If Nathan wins the short, Japan could be 2nd, which would give the US an advantage over China/Russia/Canada in the men's SP (and overall standings). I would guess Jason or Adam for the LP because of their huge PCS compared to the other US men.

That's assuming they dont split ice dance, and I'm assuming the US will probably want to reward its depth there over the men's event because of all the world medals won this quad. No men's world medals this quad. They've all been in ice dance (except for Ashley) and with multiple teams.

 

[Dobre]

Dance - This takes care of the 1 entry requirement.

Contemplating the ease with which this statement dismisses Shpilband and his two-time world medalists with their #1 world standing . . .