Which U.S. Skaters Will Make the Olympic Team and Should do the Team Event?

VGThuy

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Which skaters, as of today, should do the team event for Mens, Ladies, and Ice Dance if they make the Olympic team? I know everything can change come Nationals 2018, but from what we've seen so far, which skaters would you bank on for being our best bet for maximum points for the team event? We know we only have one pairs team for the Olympics, so that leaves one of Mens, Ladies, and Ice Dance to only have one entry. Most are assuming Nathan Chen will be chosen to be the lone skater, assuming he makes the team, but if you have a different idea, feel free that let that reflect on your choices.

I didn't post a poll because there are many skaters who are competing for to make the Olympics, and I'd like to get an idea of who people think are most likely to make the Olympic team before the Olympic season starts, just to compare it to people's predictions after the GPF and then reality.
 
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Pairs, S-K/K (only 1 pair, will do both)
Dance, H/D for the short (their SD tech is usually the highest, although I could see the Shibs doing both, and having two men split the responsiblities), Shibs FD
Men - Nathan for both
Ladies - Mirai SP, Ashley FS
 
Men's event is only four days later. I think It should be:

Dance: Chock and Bates SP and Shibs LP
Ladies: Mirai SP Ashley LP
Men: Jason Brown SP Nathan Chen LP
Pairs: :slinkaway
 
As of now, we know only one pairs team is going to compete. So that leaves three options for the two disciplines that will split duties. Since the dancers are all worthy of top 5 if not a potential medal threat in the individual event, I think Nationals and the entire season are going to be closely watched to figure out which team is left out of the Team Event. I'd also think that Nathan Chen is likely to do the SP and then maybe a sentimental favorite such as Jason Brown will once again do the LP, if he is on the team.

I do not see Nathan doing both segments because it's too many quads in a short amount of time, and the LP only features 5 skaters. If Italy once again makes the final (or France), an implosion of sorts from Jason Brown isn't going to lose a tremendous amount of points.

The ladies are all over the place right now and hopefully at least one of them delivers a solid season and the choice as to who will skate both the SP and LP (if the above situation ends up true) becomes easy.
 
Men's event is only four days later. I think It should be:

Dance: Chock and Bates SP and Shibs LP
Ladies: Mirai SP Ashley LP
Men: Jason Brown SP Nathan Chen LP
Pairs: :slinkaway

Unfortunately you have to take one of the above out as a fed can only have two entries for two out of four disciplines.
 
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Ill be interested to see if Nathan does the team event at all for boot reason. It sounds like his boots don't have much time between "just broken in" and "falling apart" and they might literally not have the life in them in the sweet spot to last through that much competition. I think Nathan might be very very leery of a repeat of 2017 Worlds in the individual event and want to play it a least a little safe at the Olympics.

On top of that... if it turns out that Hanyu, Javi, Boyang and Shoma area all not doing the team event... would Nathan really want to? Should he? If the top threats are not skating in the team event, I think Nathan should at least consider skipping it and do think there could be some wisdom in doing so. I also would see no harm are cause for snark if he skipped it, especially when we have three spots.

A part of me also thinks that Jason has earned a spot in the team event by doing back to back events as a deliberate way to train/practice for the team event. I do think stuff like that should be rewarded, and there likely is some logic in using the athlete who is thinking in those terms. This is assuming others had a chance for back to back events and were less inclined to take this approach. He also is kinda made for this type of thing so I say toss him in.

For ice dance... a part of me really would like to see the USAs #2 and #3 team split the team event and let #1 go for the individual medal, but I suspect Shibs will be #1 and will skate both events much like Davis and White.

For the women... any combo of Karen and Ashley is my vote. Ashley's low is higher than many and I think Karen actually respond well to pressure and does better, so both are very safe in my eyes. I could see Ashley skipping the team event this time to be fresher for the individual event. She is very keen on giving her body rest and she might go all in and take every advantage she can get.
 
Ill be interested to see if Nathan does the team event at all for boot reason. It sounds like his boots don't have much time between "just broken in" and "falling apart" and they might literally not have the life in them in the sweet spot to last through that much competition. I think Nathan might be very very leery of a repeat of 2017 Worlds in the individual event and want to play it a least a little safe at the Olympics.

On top of that... if it turns out that Hanyu, Javi, Boyang and Shoma area all not doing the team event... would Nathan really want to? Should he? If the top threats are not skating in the team event, I think Nathan should at least consider skipping it and do think there could be some wisdom in doing so. I also would see no harm are cause for snark if he skipped it, especially when we have three spots.

A part of me also thinks that Jason has earned a spot in the team event by doing back to back events as a deliberate way to train/practice for the team event. I do think stuff like that should be rewarded, and there likely is some logic in using the athlete who is thinking in those terms. This is assuming others had a chance for back to back events and were less inclined to take this approach. He also is kinda made for this type of thing so I say toss him in.

For ice dance... a part of me really would like to see the USAs #2 and #3 team split the team event and let #1 go for the individual medal, but I suspect Shibs will be #1 and will skate both events much like Davis and White.

For the women... any combo of Karen and Ashley is my vote. Ashley's low is higher than many and I think Karen actually respond well to pressure and does better, so both are very safe in my eyes. I could see Ashley skipping the team event this time to be fresher for the individual event. She is very keen on giving her body rest and she might go all in and take every advantage she can get.

I don't think any skater would want to miss out on a chance of winning an individual Olympic medal, but I could be proven wrong, and I'd willing and ready to eat crow. :) I just really doubt we'll see a Team Event with out all of Hanyu, Javi, Boyang, and Shoma. Hanyu did the Team Event last time when he was going for OGM, and I don't see him skipping it this time around. I also don't see any of the other men whose feds qualified for the team event skipping it either.

As for ice dance, just in terms of fairness and assuming the Shibs are USA #1 in ice dance by Pyeongchang, I would seriously hate for them to lose out on the team event after they lost out in 2014 for failing to be the number 1 American ice dance team and then lose out in 2018 just because they fought their way to become the number 1 American ice dance team, especially considering how difficult it is to in that extremely competitive pool.

I have a feeling it'll be the women who will split unless one skater just dominates the other Americans in the GP series and wins Nationals from now to Pyeongchang. I just think they're way too close to each other right now, and absent one skater showing she deserves to do it solo, then there's no reason not to split.

It's the same thing with American ice dance as they are all really competitive internationally and with one another. Which means, it'll be the Men who will only have one entry unless something major happens by Pyeongchang and there's no clear-cut USA no. 1 or no skater who has much more scoring potential than all of the other men. Of course, Olympic season scoring can be screwy and maybe one ice dance team will separate from the pack and be a clear no. 1. For that to happen, one of them has to score much higher in the GPF, and if one of them manages to post scores that are seriously competitive with V/M and P/C, then that will just work in that team's favor.

Having said that, if the American ladies all have the same scoring potential, I wonder if the USFS will just decide that it doesn't matter if they split it or just have one skater do it as the result would be the same, thus allowing the Men and Ice Dance to split.
 
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A part of me also thinks that Jason has earned a spot in the team event by doing back to back events as a deliberate way to train/practice for the team event.

What? Neither Nathan or Jason has even earned a spot on the Olympic team yet, let alone talking about the team event.
 
It's way too early to predict this.

I'll only predict that Nathan Chen does both programs, because he could potentially beat Canada and Russia in both portions. I don't think competing 4 programs will matter because of his scoring potential. I'd love to see Jason/Adam with a team medal, but that's not going to happen unless they both up their technical content to be competitive with Chan/Kolyada/Hanyu/etc. Chen will be the US equivalent to Virtue & Moir in the team event IMO. He's the ace of spades.

Oh and I predict that Alexa and Chris do both programs (because no choice :p ). That means we can only do one entry in either ice dance, ladies, or men. Right now the men's event makes the most sense for that.

I really hope that Hubbell & Donohue make it to the team event, over either Chock & Bates or the Shibs (I don't really care who at this point).
 
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I would think that regardless of who's selected for the team, the US would likely use two men for the team event because (1) they have less time to recover for individual events than ladies or ice dancers do; and (2) quads are presumably really hard on the body.
 
I would love that for Adam and Jason, but Nathan beat Hanyu this season. He can break 100 in the SP and 200 in the LP - That just can't be ignored. He can scale back and do 3 or 4 quads in a team event LP instead of 6 or 7, that'll be the negotiation of the situation IMO.

Can you imagine how happy RAF would be if Nathan landed over 10 quads in one Olympics? I can see them both going all in on the idea of doing 4 programs, just for being able to achieve that stat alone. :lol: Raf would remind everyone about it for years!

Nathan isn't the only one doing multiple quads in men's skating, Chan and Kolyada will likely do both programs also right? Or is Canada going to bench Chan for Reynolds? :p Then they're kind of screwed for team gold, no? I'm expecting Canada to do 2 pairs/2 ladies/*maybe* 2 ice dance.. The Chan stands alone.

We'll obviously use two ice dance teams, but we can't use Karen for both programs because she's an erratic competitor. We can't use Ashley for both programs unless she's nailing her jump rotations all year. Bless her, but Gracie is so far away from being even top 8 at US Nationals right now, so even expecting her to make the team at this point is far-fetched. Polina is an unknown, Mirai could do both programs but she's also an erratic competitor, and Mariah Bell won't be competitive enough for the team event.

I'd be fine with Caroline doing both programs because I love her (and want her to finally have a breakthrough/win a damn medal already), but no. That will not happen I'm afraid.

Right now, I think Nathan does both programs unless one of our dance teams pulls (clear) ahead of the others next year. I very much hope that I'm wrong, and I'd rather have Adam/Jason as our two entrants, but that's illogical right now unless things change next season.
 
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I don't feel entirely convinced we'll be using 2 dance teams. I think it depends on the situation at that time. It's just a fact that the Shibs are far, far more steady in competition than either C/B or H/D, both of whom had major mistakes many times last season. If it's a close competition in the team event, I don't think the fed would rule out using the Shibs in both segments. If it's not expected to be so close, then maybe they would do Shibs in SD, and C/B or H/D in FD. (Although honestly, I'm not deep enough into how the team event is scored to be able to make a good call on this.)

If Nathan has a strong season next year and is considered an individual medal threat (as may likely be the case), I would really be surprised to see the fed have him skate both programs in the team event. It would be an unnecessary risk for him, when we could possibly still get a medal with Jason or Adam in the FS (if they go). Again, I'm sure the fed will crunch the numbers. But my guess is an individual medal for Nathan would be a big priority for them, due to the possible boost it could give to the sport's popularity in the U.S. Another factor to consider-- By next year, Vincent may be more consistent with his quads and could therefore be a plausible alternative to Nathan skating both programs.

I think it's very likely that 2 different ladies will skate, because none of our ladies is really that consistent, so I don't think they'll want the whole responsibility for the team event on any one lady's shoulders. My guess is the choice comes down to whoever is scoring best respectively in SP and LP next season.
 
Ice dance will surely split the event, pairs is no choice, ladies: I don't think it matters and they'll probably go with one, and split the men's comp. I think the odds of the US medaling this time are low. Canada is strong in 4 disciplines, Russia in 2 and competitive in men and dance, Japan strong in 2, Italy stronger than the US in pairs, OK in dance, singes are iffy and depend on Kostner. France, has a very good chance of edging out the US for bronze with strong dance, pair, and competitive singles.

The US team event success will once again depend on dance, but I don't see them winning gold which is going to likely put the US, France, China, possibly Italy and Japan on equal standing.
 
I would love that for Adam and Jason, but Nathan beat Hanyu this season. He can break 100 in the SP and 200 in the LP - That just can't be ignored.

Nathan isn't the only one doing multiple quads in men's skating, Chan and Kolyada will likely do both programs also right? Or is Canada going to bench Chan for Reynolds? :p Then they're kind of screwed for team gold, no? I'm expecting Canada to do 2 pairs/2 ladies/*maybe* 2 ice dance.. The Chan stands alone.

We'll obviously use two ice dance teams, but we can't use Karen for both programs because she's an erratic competitor. We can't use Ashley for both programs unless she's nailing her jump rotations all year. Gracie is so far away from being even top 8 at US Nationals right now, so even expecting her to make the team at this point is far-fetched. Polina is an unknown, Mirai could do both programs but she's also an erratic competitor, and Mariah Bell won't be competitive enough for the team event.

Right now, I think Nathan does both programs unless one of our dance teams pulls (clear) ahead of the others next year.

:) Sorry, but I'm not really understanding your reasoning: why would we "obviously" split ice dance? Their schedule is by far the easiest, and in the 2014 event only the Russians & Italians (who had only qualified one man each to the Olympics) used two teams. None of our teams is as dominant as V&M or D&W were in 2014, but (with the caveat that I don't follow dance closely) at this point, they all seem to have roughly the same chance of placing third (maybe second) in each segment. So as far as I can see, the fact that we have several strong ice dance teams gives us depth, but whether we use one or two of them is unlikely to impact our chances of a team medal (or an individual medal in ice dance).

The situation in men/ladies is a lot murkier, and depends not only on who actually makes the team but what their seasons are like. As far as I can see, a healthy Nathan is the only one in either discipline who is pretty much guaranteed to make the team. But at this point, he's also almost the only US guy with a shot at an individual medal; if he's tired, he could easily drop out of contention. On the other hand, Chan, Kolyada, and even Boyang are somewhat inconsistent, so a second US guy (whether that's Adam, Jason, Vincent, Josh, Max, or someone else) could potentially beat them in one or both segments. Obviously that's gonna depend on how everyone's performing next season, but that's also true for ladies and ice dance.

Net, net: I think it's probably too soon to predict any of this.
 
Ice dance will surely split the event, pairs is no choice, ladies: I don't think it matters and they'll probably go with one, and split the men's comp. I think the odds of the US medaling this time are low. Canada is strong in 4 disciplines, Russia in 2 and competitive in men and dance, Japan strong in 2, Italy stronger than the US in pairs, OK in dance, singes are iffy and depend on Kostner. France, has a very good chance of edging out the US for bronze with strong dance, pair, and competitive singles.

I wish I understood the scoring better in the team event. As of yet, I don't know that much about it.

^^ But, France is competitive in singles?? Lecavelier is off-and-on and who is even the top French man at this point? (Besseghier??)

Japan will top the U.S. in singles, but perhaps not by that much, especially if Nathan competes, and/or Vincent with his quads. And our pairs and dance teams are considerably stronger than theirs.

Italy could be close. At their best, Scimeca/Knierim beat both Italian teams (see Worlds 2015, 2016). At their best, Shibs beat Cappellini/Lanotte. Our men are far better than the Italian men, and our ladies are currently competitive with Kostner--although she may well step it up for the Olympics. Italy is a tight battle, I admit. In my mind, the U.S. comes out on top, IF we skate our best.

Canada and Russia for gold and silver, and USA and Italy for bronze/4th, is my guess.
 
I don't understand why people are taking this scheduling thing so seriously, I understand the reasoning with quads, but it's not like some of these skaters can't scale back in difficulty to preserve their bodies. Do you think the skaters aren't going to train for this schedule way in advance, even this summer off-season? They aren't going to just show up and be left in the dark where the schedule is a surprise. I'm sure some of the top skaters will train as if they'll be doing 4 programs to build up endurance (even if not selected).

I also think the US will take the team medal very seriously, especially since they're somewhat vulnerable this time. That means they'd probably go with the highest scoring-potential team.

With ice dance, the team event is a warmup and skaters like Tessa and Scott have said they'd compete over 10 times in an olympic venue if given the opportunity.

Our ice dance teams could've easily been 3. Hubbell/Donohue or 3. Chock/Bates at Worlds. The Shibs could've been 5th, they would've been the 3-5 teams if everyone had hit. They're all very close together in standings and scores, but if one of them pulls clearly ahead next year with both the best SD and FD in the USA, then we'd probably go with one dance team.

Don't hate me for it (or you can if you want, I really don't care), but I feel like some are taking this "pounding of quads on your body" argument so seriously because you really want Jason Brown/Adam Rippon to win an Olympic team medal. :) I get it though.
 
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:lol: I can honestly say I don't care which U.S. man wins a team medal (if we get a medal). I like all our men, so it's six-of-one to me. Plus, Jason already has a team medal from Sochi. I just am hoping for a USA medal, and I don't care who it takes to get it.

As to the "pounding of quads on the body" issue, how can we not take it seriously, after what happened to Nathan in the Nationals gala next year?? (There's also Plushenko in the team event at Sochi--if you believe he was in fact injured for the individual event.) The skaters in question will all be about to compete in the most important event of their careers (Olympic individual event)--are they going to be a bit cautious going into it?? I would be, if I were them.
 
I just get the impression that you guys assume the skaters aren't going to be prepared for it well in advance. Practice/competition are two different things, but I'd be really surprised if most of the men aren't doing full runthroughs every single day in practice during the Olympics until the men's competition is over. The team event can be used like a runthrough at Olympic practice (that they're trained well in advance for, because they know what the schedule will be right now).
 
I'm thinking of Julia nailing gold medal level performances in the team event and then making lots of careless mistakes in the singles comp.

They will be trained well, but I don't want Nathan losing his own singles medal because he was too worn out from the team event. His medal should be prioritized ovet another team bronze.

I've crunched the numbers, we should have no problem getting bronze in account of the strength of our dance and men. As long as are pairs don't completely bomb and our ladies are pretty good we should be ok.
 
Was Julia tired from doing the team event or did she succumb to the pressure of skating for herself and knowing only she could determine her own result as the team effort of the team event may have laid off some of the pressure for her?
 
I don't understand why people are taking this scheduling thing so seriously, I understand the reasoning with quads, but it's not like some of these skaters can't scale back in difficulty to preserve their bodies. Do you think the skaters aren't going to train for this schedule way in advance, even this summer off-season? They aren't going to just show up and be left in the dark where the schedule is a surprise. I'm sure some of the top skaters will train as if they'll be doing 4 programs to build up endurance (even if not selected).

I also think the US will take the team medal very seriously, especially since they're somewhat vulnerable this time. That means they'd probably go with the highest scoring-potential team.

With ice dance, the team event is a warmup and skaters like Tessa and Scott have said they'd compete over 10 times in an olympic venue if given the opportunity.

Our ice dance teams could've easily been 3. Hubbell/Donohue or 3. Chock/Bates at Worlds. The Shibs could've been 5th, they would've been the 3-5 teams if everyone had hit. They're all very close together in standings and scores, but if one of them pulls clearly ahead next year with both the best SD and FD in the USA, then we'd probably go with one dance team.

Don't hate me for it (or you can if you want, I really don't care), but I feel like some are taking this "pounding of quads on your body" argument so seriously because you really want Jason Brown/Adam Rippon to win an Olympic team medal. :) I get it though.

I don't hate you for your opinions but at this point I don't really see your logic. My comments aren't at all specific to Jason or Adam (either or both of whom may miss the team). I simply think that the men's discipline (even without quads) is more physically demanding than ice dance and requires more recovery time. If you recall Sochi, the guys' programs weren't nearly as demanding physically as they are now, but with the FS scheduled the day after the SP, it was a splatfest. And as a reminder, ALL of the US guys who are likely candidates for the team at this point (Nathan, Vincent, Max, Josh, Jason, and Adam) have dealt with fairly significant injuries in the past year or two. So unless there are significant strategic reasons to use Nathan for both programs or to split ice dance (which there may well be come next February), I would split the men. JMO.
 
Ice dance will surely split the event, pairs is no choice, ladies: I don't think it matters and they'll probably go with one, and split the men's comp. I think the odds of the US medaling this time are low. Canada is strong in 4 disciplines, Russia in 2 and competitive in men and dance, Japan strong in 2, Italy stronger than the US in pairs, OK in dance, singes are iffy and depend on Kostner. France, has a very good chance of edging out the US for bronze with strong dance, pair, and competitive singles.

The US team event success will once again depend on dance, but I don't see them winning gold which is going to likely put the US, France, China, possibly Italy and Japan on equal standing.
France and Japan are really weak in two events so i don't see them challenging the US and i think Italy with no top men's skater is at a disadvantage too. As for China while they are about equal with the US men and stronger in Pairs they have weak Ice dance and the ladies aren't really competitive either. If the US skaters do what they are capable of they should win at least Bronze.
 
As far as qualifying to the final, I just did a mock prediction of the SP/SD and I think Russia and Canada will way ahead of the other nations and possibly even tied/separated by 1 point. The USA and China are likely to be close together but quite a bit behind the leaders. Then the battle for 5th may actually be very interesting between Japan, France, and Italy but I'd give the edge to Japan.

Now I know the teams haven't even been announced yet and the countries qualified haven't even been determined. But, as it goes with IJS, the top level skaters would need an absolute implosion of a skate (or to basically not skate at all) to lose to some of the skaters that will be in the team final based on the strength of their teammates in other disciplines.

As far as the USA not qualifying- I guess there's an ever-so-slight shot. But I guarantee that it would be the result of a poor mens short program that puts USA man behind competitors from teams China, Canada, and Russia (which could even happen on a slightly off day). So I definitely think the area that the USA needs to look at most IS the mens event and I 100% think Nathan Chen should be assigned the short, at least if I had to pick the teams today.
 
FWIW, I did a mock of the LP's and if they keep the same 10-9-8-7-6 point scale as they did in Sochi, then I think the battle for bronze is going to come down to USA and China and very specifically how the men do versus each other. And the battle for gold between Canada and Russia may be extremely close as well. I guess this could turn into an exciting event.
 
Don't hate me for it (or you can if you want, I really don't care), but I feel like some are taking this "pounding of quads on your body" argument so seriously because you really want Jason Brown/Adam Rippon to win an Olympic team medal. :) I get it though.

Cute, but Jason already has a team Olympic medal.

And you don't have to tell me about the pounding of quads on the body. Except now the USFS is actually caring about it, so everyone's just assuming Chen will be on the team.
 
I don't hate you for your opinions but at this point I don't really see your logic. My comments aren't at all specific to Jason or Adam (either or both of whom may miss the team). I simply think that the men's discipline (even without quads) is more physically demanding than ice dance and requires more recovery time. If you recall Sochi, the guys' programs weren't nearly as demanding physically as they are now, but with the FS scheduled the day after the SP, it was a splatfest. And as a reminder, ALL of the US guys who are likely candidates for the team at this point (Nathan, Vincent, Max, Josh, Jason, and Adam) have dealt with fairly significant injuries in the past year or two. So unless there are significant strategic reasons to use Nathan for both programs or to split ice dance (which there may well be come next February), I would split the men. JMO.


Well yes that does make sense, I do see where you're coming from and the reasoning, but the rules are you can only split two of the disciplines. We don't have a clear-cut lady or ice dance team just yet.

You're cute yourself @misskarne and 2 medals are better than one. :) and I was referring to Max/Josh/all of them. Right now Nathan Chen is the only one who can compete with the scores at the very very top.

Unless another one of our men can break 100 in the short, and 195ish in the long, there's not a lot of sense in using anyone other than Nathan for both programs with a medal on the line.

Patrick Chan will be competing 4 programs. He plans on a 2 quad short/3-4 quad long. What is Canada going to do about the pounding of quads on his body, when he's much older than Nathan? They don't really have a choice because of their depth in the other disciplines, so using Chan for 4 programs is their only choice. Japan luckily has two men at the top, Boyang Jin will likely do 4 programs...? (and he's doing a LOT of quads as well)
 
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I think, barring serious injury or imploding, Nathan will be on the team. I can't really guess who the other 2 men on the team will be other than I think it will be among Vincent, Jason, Adam, Josh (if his comeback goes well), and Max (if he has a superb GP season and U.S. Nationals).

I think USFS will (or should) be closely looking at how all the U.S. men do in the short program in ALL of their international assignments this fall. If someone can consistently score in the late 80s-mid 90s, I can see them doing the SP in the team event and Nathan doing the LP.

Would USFS really want to risk Nathan being too drained to do 100% in the men's event? Especially with how much he's promoted in the NBC promos right now? I don't know. But then again, hopefully doing both programs won't affect the Knierims, either. As much #*@&%! that they have been though, it would break my heart to see them not be able to do their best in the pairs event.
 
Ladies: Not Wagner for SP, Wagner for LP

Dance: Whichever team has had the most consistent levels for the SD. Probably the Shibs for the FD


Pairs: Knierims for the SP, Her cats for the LP

Men: Chen for SP and LP too unless another U.S man can come close to the TES we expect to see from Chen.

Even with one pair. I feel like the ladies will be what decides how this competition goes for the U.S.

Still, this looks better on paper than the 2014 team did to me, I feel like Davis/White would've appreciated competing with this team a little more :lol:
 

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