Which skater/team has best chance to be a real *surprise* world medalist this year

[savchenkoboss]

The main ones that comes to mind for me are:

Della Monica & Guarise
Tennell
Stepanova & Bukin
Sakamoto
Aliev
Zahorski & Guerreiro
Messing
Sotskova
Bychenko
Cheng & Jin

Going through each:

Della Monica & Guarise- Had an amazing and unlikely rise last year. With the likely retirement of Hotarek & Marchei they are now Italian #1 which helps them too. Despite their quiet 5th place at worlds nobody expects them to medal at a worlds, but if it is going to happen it might be soon.

Tennell- Consistent American jumper on the rise. Only needs higher PCS and more reputation to break through.

Stepanova & Bukin and Zahorski & Guerreiro- Both young Russian teams on a rapid rise. Both seemingly close to a real breakthrough.

Sakamoto- Japanese #3, nobody will be expecting a medal at worlds (if she even makes it) but she has the goods and could surprise, like she surprised Higuchi in making it to the Games over her.

Aliev- Could eclipse his more talented but more erratic older teammate Kolyada this year, which could lead to a surprise trip to the podium.

Messing- This one will probably have some laughing but I really think he is having an unlikely late career surge and anything is possible.

Bychenko- Despite that he was 4th at worlds last year he isnt someone anyone is talking about winning a medal, but given how inconsistent the mens field is, and what a strong and consistent jumper he is, I could see it happening. Especialy if he keeps improving his artistry.

Cheng & Jin- Big fan of this team. I think they will firmly pass He Zhang and partner #200 as Chinese #2 this year, and could be a surprise podium finisher at worlds.

Sotskova- Despite being the almost default #3 Russian in recent major events due to Anna P's collapse, some age ineligibles, and some injuries, she has come nowhere near a World or Olympic medal yet, although she did medal at the Grand Prix final. She could be pushed right off the Russian World teams, and given who they have coming up probably will be soon, but she might sneak out a medal at worlds before then.

 

[blue_idealist]

Did Bychenko retire?

I voted for Della Monica and Guarise since they were pretty close last year, and it seems they're getting better every year.

 

[screech]

I don't think there will be any big surprises in men, unless there's multiple huge meltdowns. There are too many of the (consistently) top skaters staying in.

 

[savchenkoboss]

I don't think there will be any big surprises in men, unless there's multiple huge meltdowns. There are too many of the (consistently) top skaters staying in.

Really? Chen in his major events so far has been 6th, 5th, 1st, even though he was supposed to win each time.

Kolyada is the epitome of inconsistent. Even his better outings like the GPF last season and worlds last season, both where he won a bronze, were riddled with mistakes, otherwise he certainly could have placed higher on the podium both times. And many of his outings are much worse than those. He hasnt even done better than bronze at Europeans yet.

Hanyu is usually pretty consistent, although he has a history of faltering at worlds practically every year, even the two he won he botched the short program.

I guess Uno is semi consistent, atleast while the judges ignore his underrotation and pre rotation issues.

Boyang too but he sure blew worlds last year.

 

[screech]

Really? Chen in his major events so far has been 6th, 5th, 1st, even though he was supposed to win each time.

Kolyada is the epitome of inconsistent. Even his better outings like the GPF last season and worlds last season, both where he won a bronze, were riddled with mistakes, otherwise he certainly could have placed higher on the podium both times. And many of his outings are much worse than those. He hasnt even done better than bronze at Europeans yet.

Hanyu is usually pretty consistent, although he has a history of faltering at worlds practically every year, even the two he won he botched the short program.

I guess Uno is semi consistent, atleast while the judges ignore his underrotation and pre rotation issues.

Boyang too but he sure blew worlds last year.

There are enough men at the top, that I predict the podium to consist of them. Hanyu, Chen, Uno, Jin, Kolyada...

And many people don't think Chen was 'supposed to win' each time. I personally thought of him as an outside shot at a medal at the Olympics, but definitely didn't predict him to win.

 

[savchenkoboss]

There are enough men at the top, that I predict the podium to consist of them. Hanyu, Chen, Uno, Jin, Kolyada...

And many people don't think Chen was 'supposed to win' each time. I personally thought of him as an outside shot at a medal at the Olympics, but definitely didn't predict him to win.

Fair enough, but I think after going undefeated all season, most were predicting him to win the Olympic Gold or atleast medal.

 

[berthesghost]

Well this thread drifted awfully quick!

But that’s probably because @screech is right, with at least 6 usual suspects crowding up the final warmup group lately, it’s hard to pick likely dark horse spoilers at this point.

As for last year’s pre-oly buzz, I don’t recall Chen having Yuna Kim like confidence by his backers.

Hanyu had already proven he was all but unbeatable if on, despite the big ? his injury caused, I don’t think he ever left “one to beat” status.

And of course the one who’d proven twice already that he could beat a flawed Hanyu was javi, so not exactly written off imo.

Sure, especially in US, hopes for a Nathan win were high, but after 3 seasons of youthful exuberance and go for broke strategy that very often backfired, I don’t think any one had anything more than a “fingers crossed” wishful thinking attitude about him winning. And if he did, we’d probably be talking about him over in the “winners who needed others to fail in order to win” thread

 

[lala]

Daniel Samohin, Wakaba Higuchi

 

[Madhatter]

Daniel Samohin, Wakaba Higuchi

Putting these two names next to each other...

 

[Twilight1]

Moore-Towers and Mariano

 

[Seerek]

Kazuki Tomono, Dmitri Aliev

Mai Mihara, Polina Tsurskaya

Della Monica/Guarise, Knierims

 

[blue_idealist]

Daniel Samohin, Wakaba Higuchi

Samohin is such a wild card. He can skate really well or fall on almost everything. LOL.

 

[lala]

Samohin is such a wild card. He can skate really well or fall on almost everything. LOL.

Yes, I know. I have seen him skate so badly and amazingly. I was in the arena when he won the JWCH (after his awful SP).. He has great potencial!

 

[Spun Silver]

Can you change your list to say Peng and Jin?

 

[tamms]

If she does well at Nats and gets selected, I'd say Sakamoto. 6th at her first Olympics isn't so bad.

 

[meggonzo]

Daniel Samohin, Wakaba Higuchi

Higuchi won silver at Worlds last season, so that wouldn't really be a surprise to medal again.

 

[MAXSwagg]

Hopefully Stepanova and Bukin. They deserve it. Hopefully they'll proceed with a lawsuit against IOC, also. There must be someone who can take the case on!

 

[savchenkoboss]

Stepanova & Bukin seem to be a super popular choice.

 

[savchenkoboss]

Daniel Samohin, Wakaba Higuchi

Higuchi has to be in the top 6 contenders pre season with Medvedeva, Zagitova, Osmond, Miyahara, Daleman. She couldnt really be considered much surprise if she does medal at worlds again.

 

[nuge]

Stepanova & Bukin seem to be a super popular choice.

Yes they seem to be gaining fans. I've liked them since juniors. I really think this season IF they have good programmes it could be a breakthrough year!

 

[savchenkoboss]

Just realizing who I forgot to put on the poll. Gilles & Poirier.

 

[WillyElliot]

My wish is for Messing to medal. I think he has it in him. Such a wonderful skater and performer.

I wouldn't bet against the Japanese girls either.

 

[starrynight]

I think we will see some surprises in pairs given the retirements and break ups

 

[annie_mg]

This is a longshot, but if Loena Hendrickx keeps improving like she did last year and skates clean, she can challenge (or at least get top 5)

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

If the stars align, Team Japan could legitimately take multiple medals in both the men's and ladies categories.

 

[VGThuy]

I think Stepanova/Bukin are setting themselves up nicely to take over the Russian reigns, there will be a lot of hopes pinned on them, they'll get some support for those who want to see Russian-brand of ice dance go back to the top, and their skating style is like the anti-Montreal so all of that will play in their favor when it comes to politicking and narrative-building. Also, reading some of their past interviews, what I gathered from it was that they really do think P/C are beatable and don't fall for the idea that no other team outside of V/M can beat them. What motivates that thinking was probably them dominating P/C in the junior scene before the 2014-2015 P/C breakthrough.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

In pairs theres some good teams that could be first-timers on World podium this year...

Della Monica & Guarise
Moore-Towers & Marinaro
The Knierims
Yu & Zhang (if healthy)
Peng & Jin
Zab & Enbert
Ryom & Kim
Marchei & Hotarek

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

This is a longshot, but if Loena Hendrickx keeps improving like she did last year and skates clean, she can challenge (or at least get top 5)

I really liked Loena's programs in 2017/18. In many ways, she has the same on - ice presence as Katarina Witt.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I really liked Loena's programs in 2017/18. In many ways, she has the same on - ice presence as Katarina Witt.

YASSSSSS MAMA!!!!!

 

[caseyedwards]

All the ice dance teams are moving to Toronto as it’s the only path to success so no Moscow team is going to do well! Lol!

I think Stepanova/Bukin are setting themselves up nicely to take over the Russian reigns, there will be a lot of hopes pinned on them, they'll get some support for those who want to see Russian-brand of ice dance go back to the top, and their skating style is like the anti-Montreal so all of that will play in their favor when it comes to politicking and narrative-building. Also, reading some of their past interviews, what I gathered from it was that they really do think P/C are beatable and don't fall for the idea that no other team outside of V/M can beat them. What motivates that thinking was probably them dominating P/C in the junior scene before the 2014-2015 P/C breakthrough.

But why wasn’t bukin invited to the Pyeongchang Olympics? No success at all until that is explained. They almost lost to zahoroski and Guerrero at worlds because of fear over his being a huge doper. Plus they are trained by total no name losers with no success in modern ijs ice dance.