U.S. Women [#8]: Meet Me in St. Louis

[Karen-W]

Well, I would like to say that I'm also encouraged by Elyce after the LP in France. Pretty decent effort after many subpar performances recently

I mean... I suppose. Her score here was lower than 3 of our women on the JGP... Yes, it was an improvement, but it's nowhere close to what she needs to truly be in the mix for the Olympic team discussion.

 

[jlai]

She can still improve to the point of getting a 4cc or post Olympic world assignment

 

[Allskate]

I mean... I suppose. Her score here was lower than 3 of our women on the JGP... Yes, it was an improvement, but it's nowhere close to what she needs to truly be in the mix for the Olympic team discussion.

I think the Olympic team discussion for Elyce has been very unrealistic anyway. It would make me sad if she made the Olympic team because I think that would happen only if multiple other skaters totally fell apart this season or got injured. Well, I suppose she could have magically shown up this season with a good triple axel or quad, but that wasn't very likely.

I'm happy for her to be improving. She's young, and she has plenty of time to improve further.

 

[DreamSkates]

Why in the world should she peak in September?

Don’t put the pedal to the metal until February.

She's wise to work toward peaking at Nationals then Olympics. After what I just saw in the first Grand Prix competition (France) the US women, if any one of them is eyeing a medal, better bring their A+++ game.

 

[ChillSkate]

I was not impressed by Elyce this season or last season. She had a lot of maybe unfortunate hype last season but never delivered on the Grand Prix. I think she needs to get a new coach asap.

 

[Coco]

She's wise to work toward peaking at Nationals then Olympics. After what I just saw in the first Grand Prix competition (France) the US women, if any one of them is eyeing a medal, better bring their A+++ game.

Final group will be a great honor for everyone, frankly, if everyone hits their SP. Would love to see a medalist come from the penultimate group. I think that would be the first time ever?

AP, 3 Japanese, 1-3 Americans capable of big scores, 1 Korean, 1-2 Belgians. My goodness.

 

[Allskate]

She's wise to work toward peaking at Nationals then Olympics. After what I just saw in the first Grand Prix competition (France) the US women, if any one of them is eyeing a medal, better bring their A+++ game.

It's a challenge to have the balance of not overtraining or peaking too soon, but also doing well enough to make the Olympic team. It is going to be sooo hard to make the Japanese women's Olympic team, so they probably feel like they have to push super hard, including at the first GP.

The Grand Prix de France women's event was of an incredibly high caliber. With these performances, any of the medalists (and Isabeau) probably would have won or at least medaled at the Grand Prix Final last season. If Kaori had skated like this at Worlds last season, she probably would have another World title. That's the best I can remember her skating in a while. And Ami scored even better than Kaori this week. It's amazing to watch, but I hope nobody is peaking too early or overtraining.

The American women don't have quite the same situation as the Japanese, but I'm sure they are still trying to balance the pacing with the need to do well enough to make the team.

 

[Jonas]

I would agree that Elyce Lin-Gracey took herself out of the running here. Pardon the use of US Presidential Election verbiage here, but I just don't see a path to the necessary Body of Work that she'll need to make her case.

Isabeau looks good and prepared and well trained (as to be expected) to me and she's growing on me. A medal here probably would've helped, but she didn't shoot herself in the foot neither.

Your thoughts...

 

[Private Citizen]

Levito’s biggest threat will be Sarah Everhardt. I think Everhardt’s programs are awful, but if she medals on the GP and Levito doesn't, and/or if she beats Levito head-to-head at SC and then Nationals, I think she’ll be on the team over Levito.

Bradie Tennell probably also has a narrow chance if she medals at SC (beating Levito and Everhardt) and beats them again at Nationals.

If Levito beats them both at Skate Canada with a cleanish skate, I think she’ll nearly have the Olympic spot wrapped up on body of work.

 

[Allskate]

Isabeau looks good and prepared and well trained (as to be expected) to me and she's growing on me. A medal here probably would've helped, but she didn't shoot herself in the foot neither.

Once you get past the selection pool, medals don't count much for being chosen for the Olympic team. When looking at the body of work, they look at the competitiveness of the field. (Most of the American women would have struggled to medal at this event.) More importantly, they look at the protocols. Isabeau did very well. There is still a little more room for improvement; she needs to tweak her spins (or make sure she has adequate time for all the rotations in the spins) because she lost a level on a couple of spins and she had the mistake on the triple toe in the long program. But, she fully rotated all her other jumps. IMO, her jumps are looking significantly better than a year ago, including the lutz and flip. Even her axel, which wasn't a problem, is looking better. I love the Ina Bauer into double axel into falling leaf. And, she got excellent PCS scores - higher than everyone but Kaori. Overall, it was a very good showing.

Having said that, USFS has made it clear that one performance is not going to be the basis for being chosen for the Olympic team.

Isabeau said that she chose to do both her Grand Prix events early to give her time to get new boots after that and focus for the rest of the season. I hope that works well for her. She's got a bit of travel and doesn't have much time to make changes before her next GP. (I'm wondering if she has once again overchoreographed her programs so that she doesn't have enough time to get all the rotations in on her spins in order to get level 4s.)

 

[PRlady]

Levito is one of the most polished, elegant performers in the world. Sarah is, bluntly, the opposite and no progress has been made. Sarah is going to have to outjump Isabeau by a LOT to make up what should be an immense difference in PCS.

 

[Private Citizen]

There is still a little more room for improvement; she needs to tweak her spins (or make sure she has adequate time for all the rotations in the spins) because she lost a level on a couple of spins and she had the mistake on the triple toe in the long program.

In the short, I think she didn't jump the changeover enough and lost a level on the combo spin. She got it in the free.

In the free, I'm guessing she lost credit for both the eight revolutions on the forward sit and the difficult change at the end? I think that spin actually has five features - the difficult entry, the camel variation, the sit variation, the eight revolutions, and the change from sit to upright where she grabs her foot?

But, she fully rotated all her other jumps. IMO, her jumps are looking significantly better than a year ago, including the lutz and flip.

Agreed, and her landings are really clean and beautifully held. She's deserving of high GOE on most of her jumping passes. I was happy to see deserved +4 and +5 for the loop in the short program.

Unfortunately, she doesn't have the base value and has few options to improve it without adding a triple axel or quad, which I don't believe she has practiced in years. If she's able to put two double axels on the end of her triple flip, she may want to consider something like: 3Lz, 3T, 3Lo, 3S, 3F+2A+2A(x), 3Lo+2T(x), 3F+2T(x). She'd gain a bit more by putting all of the combos in the back half and derisking the underrotation and negative GOE on the 3F+3T which remains iffy. But it's probably still not enough to catch Kaori or skaters with ultra-C elements.

 

[Allskate]

Agreed, and her landings are really clean and beautifully held. She's deserving of high GOE on most of her jumping passes. I was happy to see deserved +4 and +5 for the loop in the short program.

Unfortunately, she doesn't have the base value and has few options to improve it without adding a triple axel or quad, which I don't believe she has practiced in years. If she's able to put two double axels on the end of her triple flip, she may want to consider something like: 3Lz, 3T, 3Lo, 3S, 3F+2A+2A(x), 3Lo+2T(x), 3F+2T(x). She'd gain a bit more by putting all of the combos in the back half and derisking the underrotation and negative GOE on the 3F+3T which remains iffy. But it's probably still not enough to catch Kaori or skaters with ultra-C elements.

She definitely doesn't have the time to change all that before she leaves for her second GP next week. They may tweak things after that. Heck, Isabeau has completely changed programs mid-season on more than one occasion.

Isabeau has been fully rotating the flip and she's been getting pretty good height on it. It's the toe loop on the back end of the combo that can be a problem, though sometimes she does rotate it. Hopefully she can get it more consistent. She definitely has not been as hestitant this season. They may end up playing with the layout to see if they can get a few more points. She can also work a bit more on the lutz edge. I know I'm being nitpicky. To be fair, a lot of the women have under-rotation and flutz problems.

Realistically, it will be hard for any of the Americans to beat Kaori if Kaori is skating well. Amber has not beaten Kaori when Kaori has been at her best, but she's the one with the best chance simply because of the base level. I think that's the best argument for putting Amber on the team even if she has some problems in the GPs. Because of the triple axels, Amber is the most competitive if she can manage to skate cleanly. Of course, that's a big "if," but she really has improved her mental game.

I really hope that Alysa has solved her boot problems and can skate well this week. She said that she's excited, not nervous, for this week, so hopefully that's a good sign. She had talked about adding a triple axel this season, but I don't know if that's going to happen. She's the only American Olympic team contender that might successfully add one before the Olympics.

 

[orbitz]

Levito is one of the most polished, elegant performers in the world. Sarah is, bluntly, the opposite and no progress has been made. Sarah is going to have to outjump Isabeau by a LOT to make up what should be an immense difference in PCS.

One thing I appreciate about Sarah is that she's willing to try a different style, for example, this year's LP to "Poor Thing". I think the choreography and music choice for her LP are interesting. They're not everyone's cup of tea and it might not pay off with with judges but kudos for going outside the box. Yes, Levito is polished and elegant but her LPs are the same every year; 4 minutes of the same slow music and pretty princess skating put me to sleep. Her SP is also pretty much a copy of last year's.

 

[Vagabond]

Realistically, it will be hard for any of the Americans to beat Kaori if Kaori is skating well.

How soon they forget.

 

[Debbie S]

How soon they forget.

Well, Kaori did make a mistake in the SP at Worlds, and I don't think she skated clean at the GPF either....the caveat is she has to skate well.

 

[Allskate]

How soon they forget.

I didn't forget anything. Alysa says Worlds was the best skate of her life, including practices. She had been having jump mistakes and under-rotations most of the season. That program hadn't had that kind of magic all season. Even with that epic peformance, I'm not convinced that she would have won if Kaori was at her best at Worlds. She wasn't. She was fifth in the short program, and her long program wasn't perfect. Kaori also didn't skate well at the GP Final, when Amber won. As I said in my post yesterday, I think there's a good chance that Kaori's skating this past weekend would have won her another World title as well as the GP Final title.

So, I think it's going to be hard - though not impossible -- for an American skater to beat Kaori if she's skating her best. I think it's unrealistic to think otherwise. YMMV.

 

[Willin]

Isabeau is a gorgeous and complete skater other than her toe jumps. I think she'd have finished better here if those toe jumps were cleaned up. I don't doubt both her GOE and PCS is affected by them.

I see Sarah as a prospect for the next Olympic cycle. I wouldn't be mad if she made this team, but I also think she has room to grow and I want to see her grow.

 

[Bulletsdad]

I didn't forget anything. Alysa says Worlds was the best skate of her life, including practices. She had been having jump mistakes and under-rotations most of the season. That program hadn't had that kind of magic all season. Even with that epic peformance, I'm not convinced that she would have won if Kaori was at her best at Worlds. She wasn't. She was fifth in the short program, and her long program wasn't perfect. Kaori also didn't skate well at the GP Final, when Amber won. As I said in my post yesterday, I think there's a good chance that Kaori's skating this past weekend would have won her another World title as well as the GP Final title.

So, I think it's going to be hard - though not impossible -- for an American skater to beat Kaori if she's skating her best. I think it's unrealistic to think otherwise. YMMV.

I'm curious to see Alysa at COC. Assuming her boot problems are behind her, I think we'll see at least one 3A.
The 3A changes the calculus in a big way.

 

[natsulian]

To put Isabeau’s score of 212.71 into perspective, she would have won gold at 4/6 of the Grand Prix events last season and silver at the other two. She would have also won gold at the Grand Prix Final. Isabeau is on an incline, consistently improving her score with each outing. I would not be surprised to see her score in the 220s come the Olympics.

As for Elyce, she confirmed that she has a nagging pain in her hip and is recovering from a concussion. I think she’s long due for a coaching change, perhaps to Massimo. She has the jumps down, she now needs to build consistency and to challenge herself artistically.

 

[olympic]

To put Isabeau’s score of 212.71 into perspective, she would have won gold at 4/6 of the Grand Prix events last season and silver at the other two. She would have also won gold at the Grand Prix Final. Isabeau is on an incline, consistently improving her score with each outing. I would not be surprised to see her score in the 220s come the Olympics.

As for Elyce, she confirmed that she has a nagging pain in her hip and is recovering from a concussion. I think she’s long due for a coaching change, perhaps to Massimo. She has the jumps down, she now needs to build consistency and to challenge herself artistically.

Wow. Is it safe for her to skate?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Realistically, it will be hard for any of the Americans to beat Kaori if Kaori is skating well.

I don’t know …..Alysa beat her at the beginning of the year at worlds and I think Kaori had a clean program right