My men's assessment thus far that no one asked for:
I called Tomoki as my dark horse for one of the Olympic spots before the Grand Prix even started because he has shown clear improvement this year. He has always been a fun skater to watch for me because he just puts 100% into it but in doing so, appeared out of control which in turn resulted in some train wreck performances. This year, he appears much more calm, focused, and most importantly, looking like he is truly fighting for that spot and doing the work to get there. That being said....
If all of the contenders skate their absolute best, Tomoki would finish last among them because he just doesn't have the PCS or GOE potential of the rest. With the exception of Jacob, they all have relatively the same technical content so PCS and GOE matter a lot when differentiating.
I personally believe that if everyone skates their best, Andrew is at the top, with Camden not far behind (his spins are what will hold him back). I have a hard time figuring out exactly where Naumov would fit because I don't know if I have ever seen him perform to his best, so it is hard to gauge where he would land but he is likely somewhere in that top 3 as well.
Jacob has improved his presentation sooo much this year, especially how he hold and uses his arms/hands. He just doesn't have the technical yet to hit that top if everyone skates their best.
Jimmy falls a bit above Tomoki for me because he is a natural performer and will get a bit higher PCS, but he also has a lower GOE potential than others.
So far, Tomoki has the lowest max scoring potential, but on the flip side, he is the only one performing this season where he is coming close to hitting that max scoring potential. I am not in any way saying Tomoki has this in the bag or is the front runner, just that based on performances thus far, he is the only one who has shown that his max score performance is something that is repeatable. It could also be that he peaked early and can't sustain it through Nationals.
I enjoy all of the men for different reason so I will be happy for whomever makes it and gutted for those who don't. Same with the women. I think it will be possible to make an argument for nearly any of the options because they are all really close in ability and even more so, inconsistency.
And lastly, I don't necessarily think the this will come down to whomever finished 3rd at Nationals. Outside of 2014, Jason does not have a stellar record for Olympic year Nationals performances. While I think his Olympic spot is a given, I don't believe for one second that it is a given that he will finish 2nd at Nationals.