U.S. Men 2025-26 Discussion - Quad God and the Mere Mortals

[PRlady]

For the record, @TanithandBenFan posts frequently and is not an uber falsifying arguments. There’s data and then there’s interpreting data with extenuating circumstances (for example, I forgot that Maxim missed 4Cs for the world’s worst reason.) And deciding which panels are normal, strict or generous is not always immediately evident.

As we go into the always-heated pre-Oly season, let’s try to keep tone reasonable and remember we’re not arguing life and death here (that’s what PI is for.) we all have favorites which is great but shouldn’t mean dismissing other’s faves either (and I’m guilty of this as well, with irrational dislike of certain skaters’ styles or lack of such.)

The key thing about Oly men is that Ilia is an even bigger favorite than Nathan was. Even Yagudin had Plushenko and there were years like 2010 with no clear leader, but this year everyone is skating g fur silver and bronze. That skews the dynamic a bit, I think.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

And popping in here to tout a generous score for a skate that you watched is disingenuous & blatantly exposes your own biases in the conversation by proclaiming it's a "two-man race at this point" because Max's scores have been improving as the season has gone on... Okay, going from 223.43 at CS Lombardia to 226.40 at GPdF to 246.70 at IceChallenge (with its Mordavian Ornament-esque scoring, thanks @SidelineSkater for asking that question after the SP) shows a clear trajectory of improving scores over the course of the last two months - or it shows that he got lucky once this month and will revert back to the mean later on this month at Tallinn Trophy.

I wasn't even attacking Max alone in my initial response as I also pointed out that Jacob's score was overly generous for what he put out on the ice today. Could I have not led with "LMAO"? Sure, but your post didn't seem to imply that you were doing much more than looking at the results page which is disrespectful to the entire debate that has been going on over the last month or so about the 3rd men's spot - which has involved a LOT of people being overly dismissive of Hiwatashi's actual results both in this thread and the GP pbp threads because he's not their preferred skater.

Everyone knows that my preferred skater for that 3rd spot going into the start of the season was Sanchez, so you'd think I'd be thrilled here today with his IceChallenge score. Instead, I'm being honest about the scoring at that event and it would be nice if other posters like you were willing to be equally dispassionate about the scores of their preferred skaters instead of getting their panties in a bunch because I'm being "rude" or "dismissive" in calling out their clear biases.

Again, for the record, I don't think the 3rd men's spot is likely to deviate from whomever finishes 3rd at Nats (presuming Ilia & Jason are 1-2) unless that 3rd place finisher is Camden and it's a close finish with whomever is 4th. And even then, the Int'l Committee may very well just say "eff it" and give Camden the spot since none of the other US men have really set themselves apart from the pack.

Again, this isn’t just about this topic. You’re rude to people all over this board.

Just because I didn’t write a lengthy post about the Ice Challenge event doesn’t mean I didn’t watch it. What I saw was Max fighting for every jump after doubling the opening 4S. So yes, I feel optimistic about Max this season because he’s showing grit and steadiness. I would’ve loved for Jacob to have stronger showings this fall, but I never really thought he’d end up being in the final conversation. Love Torg too but between Worlds and his latest debacles I don’t know how many more chances he should get.

 

[miffy]

Can we talk about Jimmy Ma? That new free program is bonkers. It's like he's competing to be the poster child for children of the void rather than competing for a spot on the Olympic team. Does he really think that is a good competitive program or did he just give up and decide to have some fun, so he threw together some muzak with a mash of Raining Men, Macho Man, and YMCA? Maybe he's just been watching too many RDs.

I need to go rewatch the men. I was half asleep and sadly have no memory of this

 

[Allskate]

I need to go rewatch the men. I was half asleep and sadly have no memory of this

I was watching late at night, so maybe I just dreamed that this program happened.

 

[Kateri]

Can we talk about Jimmy Ma? That new free program is bonkers. It's like he's competing to be the poster child for children of the void rather than competing for a spot on the Olympic team. Does he really think that is a good competitive program or did he just give up and decide to have some fun, so he threw together some muzak with a mash of Raining Men, Macho Man, and YMCA? Maybe he's just been watching too many RDs.

In the FS commentary, Mark was speculating he's stopped prioritising trying for the Olympic spot, and has moved to try and secure his career as a show skater, by getting attention in Japan with something fun.

 

[Karen-W]

I need to go rewatch the men. I was half asleep and sadly have no memory of this

I was watching late at night, so maybe I just dreamed that this program happened.

I have yet to watch the Men's FS and everything I'm reading on X says that this program really did happen and it's as batshit as the posters here are saying, lol.

 

[Jammers]

Tomoki has done virtually nothing internationally for years going back to 2019 and hasn't even sniffed a podium finish at US Nationals since 2020 he's been to put it bluntly for 2 Olympic cycles God awful and he was getting worse every year until this season. At least Max has gotten on the podium at Nationals albeit the dreaded pewter medalist.

 

[Kateri]

I have yet to watch the Men's FS and everything I'm reading on X says that this program really did happen and it's as batshit as the posters here are saying, lol.

It was like he'd been told that PCS were now calculated by getting +0.5 every time you did a crotch thrust.

 

[Allskate]

In the FS commentary, Mark was speculating he's stopped prioritising trying for the Olympic spot, and has moved to try and secure his career as a show skater, by getting attention in Japan with something fun.

Yeah, that was in my dream, too. But, it definitely seemed to be speculation by Mark. It seemed like Mark was trying to find some rational explanation for this program's existence.

Tomoki has done virtually nothing internationally for years going back to 2019 and hasn't even sniffed a podium finish at US Nationals since 2020 he's been to put it bluntly for 2 Olympic cycles God awful and he was getting worse every year until this season. At least Max has gotten on the podium at Nationals albeit the dreaded pewter medalist.

Technically, I don't think anything before 2025 Nationals counts towards BOW. Like I said, he's not my favorite, but I give him credit for doing better this season and in multiple events.

 

[Allskate]

I have yet to watch the Men's FS

Spoiler alert: Both Torgy and Jimmy were a mess. And probably something that some people are thinking about when posting about the third spot on the Olympic team.

 

[Karen-W]

Spoiler alert: Both Torgy and Jimmy were a mess. And probably something that some people are thinking about when posting about the third spot on the Olympic team.

LOL - Oh, I've seen the scores. They tell a story alright, lol. Neither are making a compelling case for that third spot with only 4 weeks of competitions left in the fall season.

 

[olympic]

Regardless of anyone's fave, I think all the arguments point to a fight for 3rd place at Nationals and an Olympic spot. Count me as one who thinks the USFS will select the 3rd place finisher at Nationals for the Olympic spot, except Jimmy Ma apparently LOL

But seriously, it seems that the fight for the lower podium positions at US nationals for both Men and Ice Dance are going to be quite riventing

 

[Skaterbob]

Jason Brown was a guest on The Kelly Clarkson Show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftDm2qa5q9w

 

[haribobo]

So my thoughts on watching some of the US Men FS which does not have much to do with this raucous debate over who will or should get the 3rd spot...

Jacob's FS music is really depressing. And Maxim also, I think his SP is really nice but two somber programs is too much and In This Shirt is overdone and too heavy. And although I am not in their heads, I am not really sure this seems like music that they would actually like, it is just something dramatic and serious sounding but TBH, both of these free programs fall flat.

Torgashev's is better, but I also find it to be a little too introspective, although I get that is his style. I realized that at no point is he emoting out towards the audience and I guess it falls flat as a piece WE are supposed to connect with, even if the commentator tells us the story. He maybe should go back to that amazing free skate he had a few years ago which was so incredible at Nationals.

Jimmy's new FS is a delight, although the errors of course hold it down a bit. I applaud his courage in figuring out something that will allow for some fun and real personality to come through, and someone else it might be too corny but Jimmy knows how to do these types of programs.

I am keeping my eye on Caleb Farrington for next season if he can continue to build. I think he seems to have the calm needed to be successful, and seems to know himself well which is really important. We have a few too many tortured artists in the men's field who actually torture themselves right out of being actually watchable...

 

[Skaterbob]

I don't root for Naumov or Torgy. None of them have a body of work that stands out. So I'm with whoever thinks nationals may end up being the deciding factor, not because the rules of the game changed, but because the bow points for all these guys are about the same.

Tomoki did a teeny bit better this season but none of them are doing well enough that they will be on the O team over someone in top 3 at nationals

That is where I'm at too.

 

[Rukia]

actually i just saw Jimmy's new freeskate and strike all my previous comments I want him to go to Milan just so the audience there can have the religious experience I just had

 

[Vagabond]

Children of the Void? Is that a new cult?

 

[miffy]

Children of the Void? Is that a new cult?

If it is I’ll join

I was unimpressed with the Muzak-y start to Ma’s programme but it did get better. I hope he adds to the choreo because I think it’s still a bit muted and if he makes it voidier we could all
the judges to give him the 3rd spot seeing as we’ll blatantly never agree on what criteria should be used or who deserves it.

 

[Rukia]

I was unimpressed with the Muzak-y start to Ma’s programme but it did get better.

right? like you think this is muzak blah then it's raining men and he's pointing at the judges, patting his rear, and pelvic thrusting his way through 3 different songs and everything makes absolute sense

 

[Capt. DeSoto]

Children of the Void? Is that a new cult?

I think it’s something they say on The Runthrough podcast. I’ve only listened to it a couple of times, but it seemed to be a descriptor they’ve coined.

 

[Wyliefan]

I cannot fathom why he starts that program with tinkly piano. Of all odd things about it, that's the oddest.

 

[skatingguy]

I cannot fathom why he starts that program with tinkly piano. Of all odd things about it, that's the oddest.

I think it makes perfect sense - get the big jumps out of the way, and not waste the good music when he can't really perform full out.

 

[BittyBug]

Children of the Void? Is that a new cult?

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

 

[Willin]

I think it’s something they say on The Runthrough podcast. I’ve only listened to it a couple of times, but it seemed to be a descriptor they’ve coined.

It's their term for skaters like Lara Naki Guttman who skate to weird or otherwise unique music.

As far as Olympic spots, I think it's anyone's game. I don't think there's any point in speculating at this point when it's a pretty even race.

 

[barbk]

I think the USFS has to stick to the procedure it announced going into the season. It would be unfair to the skaters and damaging to the organization to change the rules in the middle of the game. If the men stay so closely bunched, it'll be whoever gets on the podium at Nationals anyway.

I'm not even sure they CAN change now -- didn't they have to commit to USOC their plan for picking folks?

 

[Karen-W]

I'm not even sure they CAN change now -- didn't they have to commit to USOC their plan for picking folks?

Yup. But their plan doesn't really box them in beyond determining WHO is in the Selection Pool once Nats is all said and done.

• Top 5 from the Selection Pool Calculation Table
• Top 5 from Nationals
• Top 24 from Current Season World Rankings (we still have another 4 weeks of comps to go, but here's who on that list right now - 2 Malinin, 7 Hiwatashi, 18 Sanchez, 23 Brown, 24 Torgashev; and further down 33 Kazanecki, 37 Xie, 40 Blackwell, 46 Farrington, 53 Kapeikis - points from IceChallenge have not yet been added)
• Top 10 from Worlds 2025 (Malinin, Brown)
• Olympic Medalist from Individual Event (no one)
• Discretionary Inclusion by the Selection Committee's Discipline Group
• Petition Athletes

Once the Selection Pool has been determined, here is the criteria the Selection Committee is supposed to consider:

7.2 DEFINE THE DISCRETIONARY CRITERIA TO BE USED:
To field the most competitive Team, the Selection Committee will take into consideration the criteria set forth below, which includes scores and placements in events, difficulty of the field, performance impact, and head-to-head match ups, to determine the athletes/teams who will have the best chance to win the maximum number of medals at the Games.

• Calculation of performance data of athletes/teams in the athlete pool as listed in Appendix B.​

o This data will include competition results and other reports/data relating to detailed results sheets of the competitions listed in Section 5.​

o The data will provide a body of work within a twelve-month period that demonstrates the athlete’s/team’s consistency and ability to achieve medal potential scores at the Games.​

o The technical elements, program components and total score data derived from protocols after the conclusion of each segment of competition specifically looking at consistency, competitiveness, and trending scores, will be a primary focus on discussing the ranking of the athletes/teams and determining the athletes that will have the most performance impact at the Games​

o All athletes in the Athlete Pool will be evaluated on the selection criteria outlined above.​

The Selection Committee will formally meet as soon as practical, after the conclusion of the competition at the 2026 U.S. Figure Skating Championships for each respective discipline (women, men, ice dance, pairs) or at the conclusion of all of the Championships disciplines to determine the respective nominees to the Team and substitute athletes in ranked order. A quorum of the Selection Committee must be present for the nominated athletes to the Team to be official. A quorum is defined as a two-thirds majority of the Selection Committee present either in person or via ZOOM and/or telephone conference call. A two-thirds majority vote of the Selection Committee actually voting is needed to approve the nominations and substitute athletes/teams.

Just looking at the group of men all bunched together behind Ilia & Jason, here's what we have in head-to-head match ups so far this season -

Torgashev - beat Kapeikis at CS Nebelhorn; beat Naumov at GPdF
Hiwatashi - beat Ma at CS Kinoshita; beat Sanchez at CoC
Naumov - beat Sanchez at IceChallenge
Sanchez - beat Ma, Kapeikis & Hiwatashi at CS Cranberry
Ma - beat Hiwatashi at CS Cranberry
Kapeikis - beat Hiwatashi at CS Cranberry

I'm not sure how much weight the Selection Committee is going to put into that Cranberry Cup result since Sanchez scored 211.31 to beat Ma (207.53), Kapeikis (201.94) and Hiwatashi (201.66). It may be the one result that they just don't take into consideration at all.

 

[Capt. DeSoto]

Not that he’s really in the conversation, but Caleb Farrington is age ineligible. Everyone else is old enough.

 

[Karen-W]

Not that he’s really in the running, but Caleb Farrington is age ineligible. Everyone else is old enough.

Good catch! I just included all the junior men even if we know they're still competing juniors at Nats.

 

[somechick]

My men's assessment thus far that no one asked for:

I called Tomoki as my dark horse for one of the Olympic spots before the Grand Prix even started because he has shown clear improvement this year. He has always been a fun skater to watch for me because he just puts 100% into it but in doing so, appeared out of control which in turn resulted in some train wreck performances. This year, he appears much more calm, focused, and most importantly, looking like he is truly fighting for that spot and doing the work to get there. That being said....

If all of the contenders skate their absolute best, Tomoki would finish last among them because he just doesn't have the PCS or GOE potential of the rest. With the exception of Jacob, they all have relatively the same technical content so PCS and GOE matter a lot when differentiating.

I personally believe that if everyone skates their best, Andrew is at the top, with Camden not far behind (his spins are what will hold him back). I have a hard time figuring out exactly where Naumov would fit because I don't know if I have ever seen him perform to his best, so it is hard to gauge where he would land but he is likely somewhere in that top 3 as well.

Jacob has improved his presentation sooo much this year, especially how he hold and uses his arms/hands. He just doesn't have the technical yet to hit that top if everyone skates their best.

Jimmy falls a bit above Tomoki for me because he is a natural performer and will get a bit higher PCS, but he also has a lower GOE potential than others.

So far, Tomoki has the lowest max scoring potential, but on the flip side, he is the only one performing this season where he is coming close to hitting that max scoring potential. I am not in any way saying Tomoki has this in the bag or is the front runner, just that based on performances thus far, he is the only one who has shown that his max score performance is something that is repeatable. It could also be that he peaked early and can't sustain it through Nationals.

I enjoy all of the men for different reason so I will be happy for whomever makes it and gutted for those who don't. Same with the women. I think it will be possible to make an argument for nearly any of the options because they are all really close in ability and even more so, inconsistency.

And lastly, I don't necessarily think the this will come down to whomever finished 3rd at Nationals. Outside of 2014, Jason does not have a stellar record for Olympic year Nationals performances. While I think his Olympic spot is a given, I don't believe for one second that it is a given that he will finish 2nd at Nationals.

 

[kwanfan1818]

f the USFS were to formally announce this (doubtful / hypothetical), I'd take it as saying BoW analysis has produced an effective draw at this point. Which seems reasonable to me.

Supposedly USFS officially stopped going by Nationals results except when they issue byes, because if US Nationals is the official Olympic Qualifying Competition, they have to give broadcasting revenue to the USOC. So even a National Champion named Malinin who wins competitions by 70 points can't be named just because he wins US Nationals. Even if it turns out that they pick the top three at US Nationals.