In regards to T/M’s consistency, they were dealing with injury last season and illness this season, but they do seem to have turned a corner physically and mentally. Practically, their real consistency problem not related to illness/injury was the jumps. Voronov appears to be a miracle worker in this department. Their technique wasn’t bad before, but it is visibly stronger and more secure in just a short amount of time.
Aliona was 34 when she and Massot win. Zhao was 37 in Vancouver when Shen/Zhao won. The younger teams are good, but nothing guarantees that they have a smooth journey ahead either. Illness and injury can strike them too. Inconsistency can happen too. (B/K haven’t been as consistent this season as last: M/G have now fallen apart at two nationals in a row.) We also have to see how the young pairs’ skating continues to develop. As of right now, if everyone skates clean, it’s going to be T/M on top. As nationals showed, when everyone isn’t clean.... it’s likely going to be T/M. When t/m are on, they’re out executing these younger teams and on any day, t/m’s skating has a maturity and refinement to it that the younger ones don’t have.
I think a clean T/M is the only team that can threaten S/H in Beijing. If T/M manage to come out on top and pick up a world title, I’m guessing they may call it a competitive career. (In Russia, they will have plenty of opportunity for a probably very long post-competitive career.) If they don’t win one or both, then they’ll have a decision to make. One thing I’ve recognized as their fan in the last year (and a year ago I was convinced they were doomed) is this team is way tougher and more determined than they look. They’ve been through a lot since 2018, but they kept fighting and kept working. If things don’t work out in 2022, they may decide to shoot for 2026.
As Amy said though, Marina wants them to stay through 2026 but T/M don’t seem to have made any decisions. I’d bet their focus is all on 2022 right now and then they’ll decide what’s next depending on the outcome of that.