Skate America 2020 Back to Vegas

Nothing in Nevada is clear right now with respect to large-scale events, including sporting events, with or without spectators. The youth organization I've been involved with for decades is slated to have it's biannual convention in Reno at the end of July. They are basically in holding mode because the governor hasn't announced any public guidance on conventions, sporting events and casinos (or he hadn't as of Thursday, when I last checked). Even the youth org's Nevada state convention which is scheduled for the 3rd week of June is still, apparently, happening because the organizers haven't been told "no go" by the hotel where they are booked because there isn't any firm guidance yet. So, my take on SA in October? If the youth group has it's convention in Reno (1200-1500 attendees in a normal year) at the end of July, then SA is probably going to happen as long as international travel is allowed. Will that be the case? Who knows? There are a lot of variables and we could be in a very different place in another 6-10 weeks than where we are now.
 
Vagabond said:
Skate America cannot happen this season unless Clark County and the State of Nevada allow it to go forward. Nevada is coordinating the reopening of business with other Western states, including California. As I recently posted in the U.S. Nationals thread, California's Governor said that sporting events will not be allowed even behind closed doors there until either a vaccine is available or there is herd immunity. Even if a vaccine is on the market by October, it's unlikely that it will be widely available by then. It's even more unlikely that there will be heard immunity, particularly internationally, as would be necessary for a Grand Prix event.
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I think Nevada is breaking ranks with California

www.rgj.com

Gov. Steve Sisolak debuts Nevada's COVID recovery plan, details what can and can't reopen

'Roadmap to Recovery' caps a weeklong flurry of announcements from the governor's office.
www.rgj.com www.rgj.com
 
I know people like to criticize the ISU for waiting for the insurance, but I applaud that. I mean it’s the responsible thing to do considering all hell was breaking loose at a rapid pace. Wish it could have gotten canceled earlier by the state, but it was a crazy time that got even crazier.
 
Carolla5501 said:
I think Nevada is breaking ranks with California
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The loose association of Western states was never meant to give all those states the exact same rules. It was so they could share and coordinate. (But especially get PPE together instead of fighting each other IMO)

VGThuy said:
I know people like to criticize the ISU for waiting for the insurance, but I applaud that.
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I really don't see how they could have done anything else. They would have lost millions of dollars.
 
I actually feel sympathy for the ISU this time.

Even if things get better in the northern hemisphere this spring and summer, there's the fear of the second wave hanging over all decision makers. What looks doable May 11 might be disastrous Nov. 11. And of course there's no way of knowing.

So they're making crystal ball decisions and the problem with those is not only do you stand a chance of being wrong, if you are wrong you have to deal with the consequences and explain why you made the bad decision in the first place. Too much risk or too much caution. No guarantees of anything.
 
USFS (with Kristi Y) is having a raffle for tickets to Nats (plus airfare, hotel, watching the ladies final with Kristi in a private suite) to benefit anti-hunger orgs. So USFS appears confident we'll have Nats. Based on CA's reopening standards for live sporting events, I'm not so sure, but I'll be optimistic.

As for SA, whether NV allows live events probably will only be a check-off in the ISU's process....it has to consider the training and travel situation of its member countries, at least the major ones. At the time of the Worlds cancellation, everyone was trained and ready, and the situation changed overnight. Now it's not just a question of the situation in the host city/country, but every other country in the months leading up. And yes, even if it looks in August that they can safely hold an event, that could change radically within a month or less.
 
So, the youth group I'm involved with posted an update from our international president today - they are basically in a holding pattern. The hotel hopes to re-open on June 1st but they have no idea whether they will be able to host a relatively small/mid-size convention of 1200 or so people by the last week of July. The Nevada state group also posted some info about their convention - they're scheduled to be in Las Vegas the 3rd weekend of June with, in a normal year, about 200-225 in attendance. If they cancel their contract they stand to lose approximately $50,000, so they are really uncertain what to do at this point if the hotel is open by then and allowed to host their convention.

Consider those numbers, folks. These are small or mid-size events and they are peanuts compared to an event like Skate America. I don't know what the USFS and ISU are going to be able to do if Nevada is open for business but I suspect we will see some form of Skate America, whether there is a GP series or not this fall.
 
Karen-W said:
I don't know what the USFS and ISU are going to be able to do if Nevada is open for business but I suspect we will see some form of Skate America, whether there is a GP series or not this fall.
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With all events like this, there is a date after which you can't get your deposit back. The ISU's 10 week timetable may or may not be within the window. Insurance may come into play, if the ISU cancels the event and the hotel and arena are open. USFS may be able to roll over deposits until next year, if they decide to go back to Vegas again.

USFS did cancel Gov Council only about a month in advance. I suspect they were able to work something out with the Vegas people.
 
Debbie S said:
The ISU's 10 week timetable may or may not be within the window.
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That's probably how they picked it. :D

My event is still on but when we get to the point where we have to order medals, we'll have another meeting and decide again if it's go-no go. We've already been told we'll get our deposit back.
 
Once Las Vegas reopens the Strip and its casinos, which its mayor wants to happen ASAP, it's going to be hard to justify not holding Skate America there in late October. The state and local governments are under a lot of pressure to get on with reopening the economy, especially in the blue states (and blue cities within red states) where the Governors are not opening quickly and beginning to lose business to red states. The USA has 50 petrie dishes and we should see the results of these diverse policy decisions over the next few weeks.

If the NFL season starts on time (regular season immediately after Labor Day, preseason beginning four weeks earlier), with Las Vegas having a football team for the first time ever, Skate America should be a go. NFL season ticket holders have already paid for their 2020-21 tickets (I paid in early March for my pair of season tickets, just before all the shutdowns began), and at prices averaging near $100 per game in 70-80,000 seat stadiums plus parking and concessions, it's going to be difficult to refund even a single regular season game with $10 million plus in lost revenues per game per team, not to mention the residual impacts on hotels, restaurants, bars, and night clubs for the entire weekend. Plus the TV rights for the NFL games dwarf revenues from selling tickets and concessions. The ISU easily can hide behind the NFL's decision, at least for Skate America and neighboring Skate Canada.
 
Yuri said:
Once Las Vegas reopens the Strip and its casinos, which its mayor wants to happen ASAP, it's going to be hard to justify not holding Skate America there in late October.
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Would 'We're only going to have about three competitors in each discipline because there is no international travel happening for another three months' be a good enough reason for cancelling?
 
Yuri said:
Once Las Vegas reopens the Strip and its casinos, which its mayor wants to happen ASAP,
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The Strip is not in the city of Las Vegas so what the Mayor of Las Vegas wants is irrelevant.

While the strip is referred to as "Las Vegas," it is not actually in Las Vegas. It sits just south of the city limits. It spans the cities of Paradise and Winchester. So those cities, Clark County and the state of Nevada get to decide.

Yuri said:
The ISU easily can hide behind the NFL's decision,
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No, they can't. They absolutely can't.
 
I doubt the ISU will be considering the NFL in its decision process (and I wouldn't bet on the NFL having spectators at its games, but that's another discussion). The two are really not related, in terms of travel, training and economic considerations.
 
Orm Irian said:
Would 'We're only going to have about three competitors in each discipline because there is no international travel happening for another three months' be a good enough reason for cancelling?
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I agree, there would not be many competitors.

One matter to consider is visas. They take time to organise and require embassies to be open, and to not have a big backlog of applications.

Also, I read at one point, that countries like Spain and Italy have said there will be no international travel for their citizens this year.

Russia had a much later lockdown than other countries, and so Russian skaters will presumably be back on the ice later than other countries, so it will be tight for them to be ready by October.

Given the US has one of the worst records on Covid-19 cases/deaths, it may not be a very attractive destination for skaters.

Also, lots of countries are going to insist of quarantine of new arrivals for at least this year, which is going to make life complicated for the skaters. Going to a competition then having to be quarantined for 14 days on their return is not going to work very well.
 
taz'smum said:
Also, lots of countries are going to insist of quarantine of new arrivals for at least this year, which is going to make life complicated for the skaters. Going to a competition then having to be quarantined for 14 days on their return is not going to work very well.
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Worst case, you have to go to a competition 14 days early and quarantine then do another 14-day quarantine when you go home. No more doing Skate Am one weekend and Skate Canada the next as a lot of US skaters do.

Personally, I think it's too soon to know what will be happening in the Fall. 10 weeks out from SkAm is when? Late July? I think I won't worry too much about it until June at the earliest.
 
taz'smum said:
Also, I read at one point, that countries like Spain and Italy have said there will be no international travel for their citizens this year.
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There will be none for Australians and New Zealanders either, except possibly within our little bubble, until the end of the year, and for most EU countries international travel is only being considered within the EU from what I remember. Not to mention the border between Canada and the US is still closed and will stay so if the Premier of Ontario has anything to say about it. I don't even know what options Japan will have available, or other states such as Israel that generally have one or two GP competitors. Add the quarantine issue to that, including any requirements for quarantines on crossing state/provincial borders (still a thing here, don't know about Canada, the US, Russia or others), and the logistics just don't work.

Never mind getting visas, you won't be able to get a plane. Whole airlines have grounded their fleets, commercial travel flights are next to non-existent, and the GP relies on international travel happening in a business-as-usual format to transport not only skaters but coaches and judges and tech specialists and officials around the globe for six consecutive weeks and then again for the final.

Las Vegas and Nevada don't really have much to say about it, in the end. The rest of the world has already done the saying for them.

Given the US has one of the worst records on *********-19 cases/deaths, it may not be a very attractive destination for skaters.
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I appreciate your talent for understatement. :)
 
I'm being realistic, and hoping that there is a chance of National competitions going ahead by December but not expecting any competitions before that. Streamed Nationals, even without an audience would be great for skating fans, especially Russian Nationals which is normally such a big event.
Then my very optimistic side is hoping for a few streamed Russian cup comps before Nationals....


Orm Irian said:
I appreciate your talent for understatement. :)
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Not really a time to be pointing fingers at how each country has managed the crisis.
 
Oh for goodness sakes, saying the Strip is open was just shorthand for saying all of the casinos and other nightlife plus sports in the greater Las Vegas is back to normal. Even the Elvis Presley wedding chapel. Just in mid March I changed planes in Vegas right as the US was entering lockdown , so I have seen firsthand just how close the NFL stadium is to the massive casino hotels.

By Memorial Day, most US states will be in at least phase one or two of their plans (even New York and Massachusetts, with hard hit NYC and Boston, plus California) to reopen and that trend is accelerating as more states are allowing citizens to make their own risk assessments on patronizing businesses. Or whether they want to keep hiding under their beds curled up in the fetal position under house arrest getting government checks. America never was going to tolerate living in a totalitarian state for long where a hairdresser can be thrown in prison for feeding her kids because hair cuts at salons are banned while liquor stores and lottery sales are open.

The US Constitution will be followed here, sooner or later, whether it is the First Amendment (freedom to assemble) or the Fifth Amendment (the takings clause where the government can't shut down a business without compensation), and it is highly questionable that either the federal or state governments have the authority to do what they did already in the lockdowns. The curve was successfully flattened and there are no overwhelmed hospitals or lack of ventilators here, as the original models relied upon by the UK and US have been wrong, even Ferguson resigned for failing to social distance while having an affair and his models were embarrassingly wrong. Nearly 40% of US deaths are in nursing homes, and most other deaths are among folks with severe comorbidities, so limit quarantines to the sick and at-risk.

I will concede skating is different than the major US team sports due to international travel and even the PGA golf tour plays almost exclusively within the USA, and the UK has canceled the British Open in July, but many international golfers have homes in Florida or otherwise may already be locked down here already. Perhaps US Open tennis is a better guide, also planned for Labor Day weekend just as the NFL is finishing preseason, and it's held in Queens in Flushing Meadows in hard hit NYC, or perhaps it could be moved to the desert in Southern California at Indian Wells. You are talking about huge international fields especially when you throw in doubles and juniors. I would think it would be easier to pull off a Skate America with around 60 skaters than a major tennis tournament, and I won't disagree with those who think international tennis will throw in the towel.

Finally, my prior profession in investing requires one to make predictions and take action based on imperfect information and risk-reward analyses, such as assessing human behavior and investor psychology. So my postings are based on how the US and world may handle the current situation based on the past, and I already nailed the market bottom to the day even before 33 million Americans filed for unemployment. Poverty undeniably carries its own health risks, especially for mental health, so policymakers inevitably needed to begin addressing financial health even in sports and entertainment, so-called non essential businesses that provide a living for a huge number of people, directly and inanalysis, Face it, the ISU wasn't exactly proactive in canceling Worlds, so if international travel will be permitted by October without the requirement for quarantines (yes that's hedged with multiple ifs!), then Skate America should happen in some form.
 
Yuri said:
Once Las Vegas reopens the Strip and its casinos, which its mayor wants to happen ASAP, it's going to be hard to justify not holding Skate America there in late October. The state and local governments are under a lot of pressure to get on with reopening the economy, especially in the blue states (and blue cities within red states) where the Governors are not opening quickly and beginning to lose business to red states. The USA has 50 petrie dishes and we should see the results of these diverse policy decisions over the next few weeks.

If the NFL season starts on time (regular season immediately after Labor Day, preseason beginning four weeks earlier), with Las Vegas having a football team for the first time ever, Skate America should be a go. NFL season ticket holders have already paid for their 2020-21 tickets (I paid in early March for my pair of season tickets, just before all the shutdowns began), and at prices averaging near $100 per game in 70-80,000 seat stadiums plus parking and concessions, it's going to be difficult to refund even a single regular season game with $10 million plus in lost revenues per game per team, not to mention the residual impacts on hotels, restaurants, bars, and night clubs for the entire weekend. Plus the TV rights for the NFL games dwarf revenues from selling tickets and concessions. The ISU easily can hide behind the NFL's decision, at least for Skate America and neighboring Skate Canada.
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TV rights have nothing to do with fans in the seats.. As you point out the TV rights dwarf revenues.... I have seen lots of suggestions that games can be played with us all watching on TV.

Orm Irian said:
Would 'We're only going to have about three competitors in each discipline because there is no international travel happening for another three months' be a good enough reason for cancelling?
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Maybe, maybe not. See the TV rights issue above. But it could be changed to some type of non qualification event so that skaters who can attend could skate, get prize money etc...


And of course the ISU can hide behind the announcement by NFL or anyone else. it's basically an unaccountable organization that does what it wants.


As for the bizarre constitutional discourse above... shouldn't that be in the Trash Can. (I always enjoy the 'read only the parts of the constitution I like discourses :) but I don't think GSD is the place for them)
 
Carolla5501 said:
As for the bizarre constitutional discourse above... shouldn't that be in the Trash Can. (I always enjoy the 'read only the parts of the constitution I like discourses :) but I don't think GSD is the place for them)
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Seconded. Of course, all those basic points have been addressed in PI and maybe that’s why some rather do hit-and-run posts in here due to less chance of pushback compared to the more contentious PI threads. And that needless editorializing is just basic talking points from one extreme side that doesn’t quite fully align with reality (as a lawyer those constitutional arguments remind me of all the baseless arguments people made about Obama or income tax where they spout off selective parts of the Bill of Rights and ONLY the Bill of Rights without considering other clauses or precedent), so whatever good arguments that were in there sort of got lost.

Some articles worth reading:

app.hedgeye.com

Hedgeye Risk Management | Vast Majority of Americans Support Stay-at-Home Orders

in the absence of strong leadership and consistent messaging, it's easy to provoke anger and promote conspiracy theories. And the media are always happy to repo
app.hedgeye.com app.hedgeye.com

tinyurl.com

Mask Orders: Your Rights During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Last updated: Aug. 10, 2021The information contained in this Know Your Rights content is subject to change as state and local governments respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Please check the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) coronavirus information page for updates about the virus...
tinyurl.com tinyurl.com
 
Last edited:
LA county stay at home order likely to last another 3 months. You read that correctly. Other cities will surely follow similar pattern after seeing numbers increasing elsewhere. While it’s not Nevada or Vegas, other countries are continuing to be a little less.. hasty... in making the complaining masses happy and I think it’ll stay this way.

Speaking to a few people who work within the ISU at some level (about rule changes), I get the strong sense that their real ultimate goal is to get a World Championship sometime in the first half of 2021, not necessarily in March as usual, but just sometime. For all other events, especially those happening before the end of this year, not so optimistic. Take that for what it’s worth.
 
Tony Wheeler said:
Speaking to a few people who work within the ISU at some level (about rule changes), I get the strong sense that their real ultimate goal is to get a World Championship sometime in the first half of 2021, not necessarily in March as usual, but just sometime. For all other events, especially those happening before the end of this year, not so optimistic. Take that for what it’s worth.
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I figured as much. Glad they are still determined to have a Worlds next season. I wonder what will happen in the U.S. (Virtual) Gov Council is this weekend but I suspect in true USFS fashion, they will try to deflect all questions about next season. I know right now, everything is unpredictable, but at this point, they should have a contingency plan. They haven't been very communicative to clubs hosting summer comps. :(
 
Tony Wheeler said:
LA county stay at home order likely to last another 3 months. You read that correctly. Other cities will surely follow similar pattern after seeing numbers increasing elsewhere. While it’s not Nevada or Vegas, other countries are continuing to be a little less.. hasty... in making the complaining masses happy and I think it’ll stay this way.

Speaking to a few people who work within the ISU at some level (about rule changes), I get the strong sense that their real ultimate goal is to get a World Championship sometime in the first half of 2021, not necessarily in March as usual, but just sometime. For all other events, especially those happening before the end of this year, not so optimistic. Take that for what it’s worth.
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Keeping the stay at home order doesn't mean that facilities don't reopen. Like everywhere in the world life will (and must) go on with safety measures. So ice rinks have already opened or will open soon. Major leagues will start playing (mostly without spectators), competitions will take place (maybe with less spectators or none). Travel will start soon (borders in Europe begin to reopen). There is still some time til october to get used to the situation we will have to live with for the next months or years.
 
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