Qualification Watch

[tony]

Pairs after 4 events:
Miura/Kihara are in with 28 points
Metelkina/Berulava are in with 24 points (9+15)
Kam/O'Shea are in 99.9% good position with 24 points (13+11)

The only way Kam/O'Shea don't make it is if Ghilardi & Ambrosini win next week over Stellato/Deschamps. No other result will send them out. No other team left to compete can win and earn more than 22 points.

Stellato/Deschamps, Hase/Volodin, and Conti/Macii basically just need medals to complete the six teams.

 

[tony]

Dance after 4 events:
Chock/Bates are in with 28 points
Lopareva/Brissaud are in with 26 points

Gilles/Poirier and Fear/Gibson have 15 points each with their wins, and only need a bronze (well technically, 4th) next week to both qualify. They don't have much other competition.

Lajoie/Lagha, Carreira/Ponomarenko, and Guignard/Fabbri each have 13 points and all of them are in China. Whoever wins bronze there will be out.

 

[Karen-W]

Pairs after 4 events:
Miura/Kihara are in with 28 points
Metelkina/Berulava are in with 24 points (9+15)
Kam/O'Shea are in 99.9% good position with 24 points (13+11)

The only way Kam/O'Shea don't make it is if Ghilardi & Ambrosini win next week over Stellato/Deschamps. No other result will send them out. No other team left to compete can win and earn more than 22 points.

Stellato/Deschamps, Hase/Volodin, and Conti/Macii basically just need medals to complete the six teams.

Go ahead, tempt fate there...

 

[tony]

Men after 4 events:
Malinin is in with 30 points

Andrew Torgashev has 20 points (9+11) and is most likely out, but stranger things have happened.

Siao Him Fa has 15 + China
Kagiyama has 15 + Finland (back-to-back weeks)
Aymoz has 13 + Finland (282.88)
Grassl has 13 + Finland (264.85) (back-to-back weeks)
Sato has 13 + China (261.16)
Cha has 11 + Finland (260.31)

Egadze (China), Yamamoto (Finland), and Shaidorov (China) all have 9 points and would likely need a win to put themselves into contention.

One of the previous medalists at minimum will be off the podium next week- it's a stacked field plus Yamamoto, who would likely need at least silver. Cha certainly needs to be at least 2nd. If he's 3rd, Aymoz and Grassl will both beat him with a 4th place.

So, basically down to 6 men fighting for 5 spots. But then again, China could still see a surprise winner with Egadze and Shaidorov there.

 

[Sylvia]

Standings updated after 4 events:
Men: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2024/gpsmen.htm
Pairs: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2024/gpspairs.htm
Ice Dance: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2024/gpsdance.htm

Women to be updated in a few hours: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2024/gpswomen.htm

 

[tony]

Women after 4 events:
Sakamoto is in with 30 points
Higuchi is in with 28 points

Glenn 15 + China
Chiba 13 + China
Watanabe 13 + China
Matsuike 11 + Finland
Sumiyoshi 11 + China
Yoshida 11 + Finland

Also in Finland: Mai Mihara has 7 points, would need to win and a lot of other things to fall into place to have a chance. Loena Hendrickx is still listed, her status isn't really known but she can play spoiler. Sarah Everhardt as well, although she'd be another one who likely needs a win to have a chance.
Also in China: Chaeyeon Kim and Kimmy Repond with 9 points each, both would have to win to be in consideration, but there are 4 GP medalists all there as well.

Looks like it’s going to come down to Chiba, Watanabe, Matsuike, Sumiyoshi, and Yoshida fighting it out for the final spot, with Rion at the biggest disadvantage and most likely needing 2nd or higher in China.

 

[Karen-W]

Women after 4 events:
Sakamoto is in with 30 points
Higuchi is in with 28 points

Glenn 15 + China
Chiba 13 + China
Watanabe 13 + China
Matsuike 11 + Finland
Sumiyoshi 11 + China
Yoshida 11 + Finland

Also in Finland: Mai Mihara has 7 points, would need to win and a lot of other things to fall into place to have a chance. Loena Hendrickx is still listed, her status isn't really known but she can play spoiler. Sarah Everhardt as well, although she'd be another one who likely needs a win to have a chance.
Also in China: Chaeyeon Kim and Kimmy Repond with 9 points each, both would have to win to be in consideration, but there are 4 GP medalists all there as well.

Looks like it’s going to come down to Chiba, Watanabe, and Sumiyoshi fighting it out for the final spot, with Rion at a disadvantage and most likely needing 2nd or higher in China.

Hendrickx is out. Replaced by Ahsun Yun.

Everhardt needs to 1) win and 2) Matsuike & Yoshida to finish no higher than 3rd.

 

[tony]

Hendrickx is out. Replaced by Ahsun Yun.

Everhardt needs to 1) win and 2) Matsuike to finish no higher than 3rd.

Edited, thought Sarah was 4th in her first event. 5th makes it much more complicated.

But a China podium of: 1) Sumiyoshi 2) Chiba or Watanabe 3) Chiba or Watanabe 4) Glenn, for example, would also knock Everhardt out as all 4 of them would have 24 points or more.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

4) Glenn

Don’t even

 

[tony]

After 5 events- Men:

1 Malinin 30 points
2 Kagiyama 30 points
3 Aymoz 26 points
They have all qualified

4 Grassl 24 points

Grassl is in as well unless standings next week are exactly: 1 Egadze or Shaidorov; Sato top 2 or top 3 (tie breaker), Fa top 4.

 

[tony]

GPFinal Watch - Women:
In:
1 Sakamoto 30 Points
2 Higuchi 28 Points
3 Yoshida 26 Points
Bubble:
4 Matsuike 26 Points (13+13)

Next Week:
Glenn (15), Chiba (13), Watanabe (13), Simiyoshi (11)

A podium of Sumiyoshi, Chiba, or Watanabe winning - Chiba or Watanabe 2nd (with tie-break) - Glenn 3rd would push Matsuike out.

 

[Karen-W]

GPFinal Watch - Women:
In:
1 Sakamoto 30 Points
2 Higuchi 28 Points
3 Yoshida 26 Points
Bubble:
4 Matsuike 26 Points (13+13)

Next Week:
Glenn (15), Chiba (13), Watanabe (13), Simiyoshi (11)

A podium of Sumiyoshi, Chiba, or Watanabe winning - Chiba or Watanabe 2nd (with tie-break) - Glenn 3rd would push Matsuike out.

And Chaeyeon Kim has 9 points - if she wins & Glenn finishes 2nd, they will qualify for the GPF along with Matsuike and push the other three Japanese women out.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Is Torg likely to be the first alternate?

 

[tony]

Is Torg likely to be the first alternate?

If Siao and Sato finish 1-2 either way, then only Egadze or Shaidorov finishing in bronze would go to tie-break with Andrew. So he realistically could be 1st alt.

Or with a wild result like Rizzo, Egadze, Shaidorov, Sato, Siao— he can be pushed right out of the alternates.

 

[tony]

Pairs after 5 events:

Stellato/Deschamps (30), Miura/Kihara (28), Metelkina/Berulava (24), Kam/O'Shea (24) in.

Hase/Volodin and Conti/Macii need to simply finish top 4 next week (Germans really just top 5), and there are your six.

 

[tony]

GPFinal after 5 events - Dance:

1 Fear/Gibson 30 Points - only 2-time winners
2 Chock/Bates 28 Points
3 Gilles/Poirier 28 Points
4 Lopareva/Brissaud 26 Points

All in.

Next week, all of Lajoie/Lagha, Carriera/Ponomarenko, Guignard/Fabbri have 13 points. Whoever finishes with bronze is out of the Final.

 

[4rkidz]

GPFinal after 5 events - Dance:

1 Fear/Gibson 30 Points - only 2-time winners
2 Chock/Bates 28 Points
3 Gilles/Poirier 28 Points
4 Lopareva/Brissaud 26 Points

All in.

Next week, all of Lajoie/Lagha, Carriera/Ponomarenko, Guignard/Fabbri have 13 points. Whoever finishes with bronze is out of the Final.

Makes next week pretty exciting in the ice dance.

 

[ChillSkate]

I'm cheering for Amber, but how remarkable is it that the Japanese women will likely have 5-6 competitors in the GP Final?!? I wonder if any country has ever had all 6 competitors in the GPF in any discipline? I remember some GPFs with 4 Russian women but don't remember any with 5 or 6.

 

[leilaofpaper]

I'm cheering for Amber, but how remarkable is it that the Japanese women will likely have 5-6 competitors in the GP Final?!? I wonder if any country has ever had all 6 competitors in the GPF in any discipline? I remember some GPFs with 4 Russian women but don't remember any with 5 or 6.

IIRC last olympic year (before the GPF was cancelled) it was going to be 5 Russian women + Kaori.

 

[tony]

GPF Dance:
1/ Fear & Gibson - 30 Points
2/ Chock & Bates - 28 Points
3/ Gilles & Poirier - 28 Points
4/ Guignard & Fabbri - 28 Points
5/ Lopareva & Brissaud - 26 Points
6/ Lajoie & Lagha - 26 Points
ALT1/ Carreria & Ponomarenko - 24 Points
ALT2/ Smart & Dieck - 20 Points
ALT3/ Reed & Ambrulevicius - 20 Points

 

[tony]

GPF Women:
1/ Kaori Sakamoto - 30
2/ Amber Glenn - 30
3/ Wakaba Higuchi - 28
4/ Hana Yoshida - 26
5/ Mone Chiba - 26
6/ Rino Matsuike - 26
ALT1/Rinka Watanabe 13 + 7 20
ALT2/Chaeyeon Kim 9 + 11 20
ALT3/Rion Sumiyoshi 11 + 9 20

 

[tony]

GPFinal Men:
1/ Ilia Malinin - 30 Points
2/ Yuma Kagiyama - 30 Points
3/ Shun Sato - 28 Points
4/ Adam Siao Him Fa - 26 Points
5/ Kevin Aymoz - 26 Points
6/ Daniel Grassl - 24 Points
ALT1/Mikhail Shaidorov - 22 Points
ALT2/Andrew Torgashev - 20 Points
ALT3/Koshiro Shimada - 18 Points

 

[tony]

GPFinal - Pairs:
1/ Stellato & Deschamps - 30 Pts
2/ Miura & Kihara - 28 Pts
3/ Hase & Volodin - 28 Pts
4/ Conti & Macii - 28 Pts
5/ Metelkina & Berulava - 24 Pts
6/ Kam & O’Shea - 24 Pts
ALT1/Ghilardi & Ambrosini - 22
ALT2/ Pavlova & Sviatchenko - 20
ALT3/ Efimova & Mitrofanov - 20

 

[tony]

Entries by the numbers (senior + junior):
Japan - 14
USA - 8
France - 6
Canada - 5
Italy - 4
China - 2
Germany - 2
South Korea - 2
Georgia - 1
Great Britain - 1
New Zealand - 1
Slovakia - 1
Ukraine - 1

 

[zigzig]

Dance - disappointed CarPon and S/D didn't make it. My fantasy final would have them in the final in place of the Brits and Italians.

Pairs - thrilled for Danny and Ellie.

Women - so much depth in Japanese women.

Men - dang. Shaidorov so close to bumping Grassl out of the final which would have made me REALLY HAPPY. That Billy Elliot program and his cheated quads getting called clean are gonna make me go postal.

 

[4rkidz]

I think it’s great that France has six entries! Hopefully it will make for a fun local crowd?

 

[Rukia]

tbh i would have never started this season thinking andrew torgashev would end up even 2nd alt for the gpf so what a success story that is

 

[cholla]

I think it’s great that France has six entries! Hopefully it will make for a fun local crowd?

Grenoble being Aymoz's hometown, chances are it will be a very loud one like every time he skates at home!

 

[4rkidz]

Grenoble being Aymoz's hometown, chances are it will be a very loud one like every time he skates at home!

I'm so excited and for once I get to watch a whole event in the stands and not in the back of the house on a screen or freezing down at the kiss n cry!

 

[cholla]

Adam Siao Him Fa has withdrawn But that was foreseeable and it's better than putting his Olympic preparation in jeopardy. We'll have Shaidorov instead.