Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[RoseRed]

Exactly. If Canada is in a safe position and they use Sequin & Bilodeau and not Weaver & Poje I will literally barf and hope Skate Canada goes up in flames sometime in the next year. And I dont get this talk they will be giving up a lot of points using Weaver & Poje, like i said if Weaver & Poje skate well they will DEFINITELY beat both Bobrova & Soloviev and Capellini & Lanotte (who probably wont even skate the FD anyway), do no worse than 2nd, and could easily be 1st as they are very capable of beating any U.S entry if they skate well. Although by that point even a 4th place which would only happen if W&P have a bad skate wouldnt hurt them, but 4th is where Sequin & Bilodeau would almost certainly finish in the pairs LP anyway vs the 1st D&R would certainly get if T&M dont skate, far likely to be giving up points than W&P ever would be so that pointless argument applies far more to S&B than W&P.

There is very little chance that W/P will skate, as much as that sucks for them. For several reasons. One, if they are in a comfortable position, it makes way for sense to sub pairs then dance. D/R want an individual medal and it's a definite possibility. Pairs starts several days before dance, so they get way less rest, so it's easier for V/M to recover from doing both than it is for D/R, especially since D/R have had more injury issues of late than V/M.

Two, V/M are a way safer bet than W/P. They'll place first for sure, whereas W/P could lose to the US and OAR even with a pretty good skate. B/S don't have a very strong SD, but their FD has been scoring well this year. So no, W/P will not definitely beat them. Even if D/R do skate, they have to decide on the dance entry before the results of men's and ladies'. And with bad skates, we could lose a fair amount of points to OAR in both of those frees. If Kolyada skates well and Chan doesn't, that could be 3 points, even 4 if Chan came last. And ladies could end up as 3 for OAR too, if Gabby had a bad skate and lost to the US and Japanese women. That's OAR gaining as much as 7 points on us. Let's say B/S come 3rd in the SD and Kaetlyn comes 2nd; we'd go into the FS with a 5 point lead. If D/R get 2 points on the OAR team, that would be a 7 point lead. Things could still get close with a couple of disasters. Obviously I'm not predicting that, but they will probably think about every possible scenario.

But most importantly, V/M want to skate both. They've talked about how they feel it's important for them to test out of the changes they've made to their programs, especially their FD and see how the judges respond. Why would Skate Canada not want to give them every opportunity to be ready for the individual and get gold?

 

[Vash01]

With the Men, I do wonder why do a jump in competition that you don’t land very much? Is it worth it? Kolyada just dug the OAR into a big hole.

I think V/M will do the FD. I don’t see them being subbed and Daleman will sub in for Osmond in the LP. If Messier subs in for Chan, what would that mean?

It wasn't just the quad Lutz that put him in a hole. Popping the 3A into a single (zero points) buried him. His 3A is usually quite good and quite consistent. It was a total meltdown.

 

[Habs]

We will see but I am just going by the Team competitions thus far, top teams always seem to use 2 subs so I expect they will again.

And W/P would never lose to B/S in the FD unless they skate really bad.

D&R and Chan are definitely doing both. They have basically confirmed it.
V&M want to do both.
The only substitution I see happening is Osmond & Daleman.

 

[coppertop1]

It wasn't just the quad Lutz that put him in a hole. Popping the 3A into a single (zero points) buried him. His 3A is usually quite good and quite consistent. It was a total meltdown.

He had two invalid elements, didn’t he? He failed to do a combination. A 3A is worth about 8.5, a triple combo is worth around ten. Almost twenty points lost. Ouch.

 

[Rafter]

Agree.

When Meagan and Eric were being interviewed at the onset of the competition yesterday, she was asked about Canada’s strategy/game plan for the team event. Her comment was:

“...whatever it takes, whoever needs to skate in order for Canada to win that gold medal, is what’s going to happen”.

With all the retirements after this Olympics, this could be the best chance for Canada to claim team gold for awhile. It didn’t sound as if there were plans to take risks using second best skaters.

I didn’t see this interview by MD but I guess it’s not surprising. Canada won’t be a gold medal threat in the team event for long time unless Gogolev can live up to the hype.

 

[tony]

He had two invalid elements, didn’t he? He failed to do a combination. A 3A is worth about 8.5, a triple combo is worth around ten. Almost twenty points lost. Ouch.

A lack of a combination attempt used to result in the whole element being invalid (for a few seasons) which was super harsh. Now, the element intended as a combination gets marked as +COMBO and no points are lost from the jump actually completed, as long as it is within the rules (so any quad, triple, or double jump).

But yes, basically -4.00 GOE for each of his quad falls, another -2.00 points deductions for the falls, and then a base value of 9.35 points for the 3A lost.

 

[MR-FAN]

Ladies LP is probably Zagitova, Sakamoto, Kostner, one of Nagasu/Tennell, and one of Daleman/Osmond. We will again say Russia wins here (safer bet), and I'll put Canada 3rd just for the sake of giving Russia another benefit.

So going into the LP with these examples, Canada would have 33 points. Russia has 31 points.

Canada gets 36 points in the long programs, and Russia gets 37. Canada wins by one point (69 to 68). And remember, this is a scenario in which pretty much everything goes right for Russia and some things go wrong, particularly with the ladies, for Canada.

I can see Canada coming in 5th at the Ladies LP, which would give Russia the gold (that would be quite the comeback though!)

 

[MR-FAN]

But yes, basically -4.00 GOE for each of his quad falls, another -2.00 points deductions for the falls, and then a base value of 9.35 points for the 3A lost.

And another 4 for a 3toe

 

[tony]

And another 4 for a 3toe

And the potential positive GOE for all of said elements. So a clean skate could've possibly earned him ~30 points more technically.

 

[tony]

I can see Canada coming in 5th at the Ladies LP, which would give Russia the gold (that would be quite the comeback though!)

Yeah, but that requires many scenarios, such as Osmond only being 4th (or 5th) in the ladies SP, Z/E being at least 2nd in the pairs LP, B/S being at least 3rd in both the SD and FD, and Kolyada winning the mens LP or at least finishing two spots ahead of Chan.

Russia still has a chance, but everything has to go exactly right and Canada has to help them a bit.

 

[MR-FAN]

There is very little chance that W/P will skate, as much as that sucks for them. For several reasons. One, if they are in a comfortable position, it makes way for sense to sub pairs then dance. D/R want an individual medal and it's a definite possibility. Pairs starts several days before dance, so they get way less rest, so it's easier for V/M to recover from doing both than it is for D/R, especially since D/R have had more injury issues of late than V/M.

Thing is Canada won’t know how far ahead it stands by the time the pairs do their LPs, but will have a better idea in time for the FD.

I haven’t done the math, but if things go great for Canada and not-so-great for Russia tomorrow (say Osmond is in 2nd behind Russia, V/M win the SD with Russia coming in 4th, and D/R win the LP with Russia in 4th, it could be impossible for Russia to come back the last day.

But again Maybe V/M want to test their FD ahead of the main event...

 

[RoseRed]

I can see Canada coming in 5th at the Ladies LP, which would give Russia the gold (that would be quite the comeback though!)

Only if Carolina skates the FS. Giada Russo's best FS score is 96.57, so she'll be last for sure if she skates.

 

[rvi5]

I didn’t see this interview by MD but I guess it’s not surprising. Canada won’t be a gold medal threat in the team event for long time unless Gogolev can live up to the hype.

It was on one of my TSN recordings of the event (I have all 5 TSN channels).

Team gold is likely important to everyone on the team. Nobody on the current Canadian figure skating team has an Olympic gold of any kind, except V/M (doesn’t V/M now have every major figure skating gold except team gold?)

 

[screech]

I am sorry, no way should S&B win a medal and not W&P. I am not over the fact Kevin Reynolds has one and W&P don't.

To be fair, Kevin gave probably the best skate of the entire Team Canada in 2014...

If Messier subbed for Chan that would mean somebody is very very confused. Or desperate.

After the SP yesterday, I actually commented to someone that Keegan could have been top 3 (possibly even 2nd) after the SP yesterday, since he's pretty consistent, given how everyone else skated.

 

[Spun Silver]

After the SP yesterday, I actually commented to someone that Keegan could have been top 3 (possibly even 2nd) after the SP yesterday, since he's pretty consistent, given how everyone else skated.

i was just trying to be funny. Messier is a hockey player. Keegan's last name is Messing.

 

[levineismine]

Italy is only switching pairs, Chan and D/R are doing both. I bet we will see at least one substitution if Canada has at least a 5 points lead (Daleman would be first choice, second would be W/P imo for reasons other posters explained above).
Stranger things have happened, but V/M will get at least 2-3 points on B/S in the SD, so if Osmond skates decently and gets within 1-2 of points from RUS (who I assume gets first), that's already a 4 to 6 points lead for Canada.

With D/R doing the FS that's another at least 1 point lead as I assume they will easily win. So it could be risky, but there is room for 1 or 2 substitutions.

 

[Frida80]

Italy is only switching pairs, Chan and D/R are doing both. I bet we will see at least one substitution if Canada has at least a 5 points lead (Daleman would be first choice, second would be W/P imo for reasons other posters explained above).
Stranger things have happened, but V/M will get at least 2-3 points on B/S in the SD, so if Osmond skates decently and gets within 1-2 of points from RUS (who I assume gets first), that's already a 4 to 6 points lead for Canada.

With D/R doing the FS that's another at least 1 point lead as I assume they will easily win. So it could be risky, but there is room for 1 or 2 substitutions.

Why would Italy risk Carolina’s bronze? They can’t make up the difference.

 

[judgejudy27]

Italy said they want a team medal so I dont see anyway Kostner doesnt do both programs.

 

[Frida80]

Italy said they want a team medal so I dont see anyway Kostner doesnt do both programs.

But they need their pairs. I’ll recalculate to see if it’s possible. But I calculated a seven point difference after the short.

 

[Frida80]

I recalculated, the most optimistic score I can give Italy is 55 compared to 60 from the US. That’s with Carolina getting second in th final round, pairs third, dance fourth, and men’s fifth. I just don’t think there is a way for them to make up those points. At Europeans she changed her layout to include her Lutz. She rarely gets clean, but her PCS can make up the difference.

I don’t like this. I have Carolina down for a possible bronze for the individual.

 

[tony]

The big setback already for team Italy was that their pairs team finished way behind team USA when, on paper, they probably planned to take a point or two from USA in the segment.

Now, it's basically an impossible task for them to be competitive unless Kostner finishes 2nd in both portions of the ladies competition AND the US lady tanks the short on Kolyada's level and then also finishes last in the LP. And then they also need to hope for Cappellini/Lanotte to finish right behind the US in the SD and FD, and doing so would require them to beat the Russians.

But then it goes back to the question of whether Kostner really needs to be used in both segments for a team medal that is now really unlikely to happen when she's just as much a threat for an individual medal as she was in 2014.

 

[VGThuy]

Would doing the TE and the individual really tire Caro out considering the fact that Ladies is the final event? I mean don't skaters skate a similar schedule if they have GP events scheduled closed to one another?

 

[oleada]

Ladies SP order is up!
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/SEG011.HTM

Bradie, Satoko, Evgenia, Carolina, Kaetlyn all in

 

[judgejudy27]

I didnt say Italy could win the bronze. Just that numerous team members stated they think they can, and that is their goal, no matter how unrealistic in reality. Based on that I doubt Kostner not skating both programs. IMO it is no worry regardless. Ladies is last up, a long time away.

 

[CantALoop]

Ladies SP order is up!
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/SEG011.HTM

Bradie, Satoko, Evgenia, Carolina, Kaetlyn all in

Worried about Mirai being benched completely , but I totally understand given the scare Nathan gave Team USA yesterday

 

[skatingguy]

Would doing the TE and the individual really tire Caro out considering the fact that Ladies is the final event? I mean don't skaters skate a similar schedule if they have GP events scheduled closed to one another?

Particularly given how things worked out last time where she put out three of the best skates of her career, and maybe she feels that doing the Team Event may help her with confidence going into the individual event.

 

[Deleted member 19433]

A lack of a combination attempt used to result in the whole element being invalid (for a few seasons) which was super harsh. Now, the element intended as a combination gets marked as +COMBO and no points are lost from the jump actually completed, as long as it is within the rules (so any quad, triple, or double jump).

+COMBO has existed in the SP since the beginning of IJS (e.g. http://www.isuresults.com/results/sa2003/sa03_men_sp_scores.pdf) and the element still got some points, and although the skater (both now and then) gets some value for the first jump provided it meets the requirements for one of the jumps in the combination, a -3 overall GOE is required, so the element does lose a significant number of points relative to its base value, even if the one jump was "cleanly" executed. (Granted, it's pretty rare that a clean jump would be called with +COMBO in the SP because usually the reason the skater doesn't execute the combo is due to an error on the first jump of the intended combo).

 

[Dobre]

The big setback already for team Italy was that their pairs team finished way behind team USA when, on paper, they probably planned to take a point or two from USA in the segment.

But Rizzo is far closer to Nathan than Italy could have anticipated. (Rizzo is ahead of Han Yan & Kolyada while Nathan finished behind Patrick & Bychenko). I'd say Italy is ahead of where most people would have predicted them at this stage relative to the U.S.

Japan is probably at least a spot higher than anticipated, though, with the pairs team besting the Israelis.

Kolyada is perfectly capable of doing well in the FS after a crummy SP. He started off this season with a 12th place SP at Nepela and won the event there.

I'm not sure why people are still insisting there are certainties.

 

[levineismine]

But Rizzo is far closer to Nathan than Italy could have anticipated. (Rizzo is ahead of Han Yan & Kolyada while Nathan finished behind Patrick & Bychenko). I'd say Italy is ahead of where most people would have predicted them at this stage relative to the U.S.

Japan is probably at least a spot higher than anticipated, though, with the pairs team besting the Israelis.

Kolyada is perfectly capable of doing well in the FS after a crummy SP. He started off this season with a 12th place SP at Nepela and won the event there.

I'm not sure why people are still insisting there are certainties.

I still bet on can-oar-us but it was nice to hope for a couple of hours until the pairs sp that Italy could make it to bronze. Had dm-g skated clean, that would have been more a possibility. (I didn't understand team Italy's strategy as i would have switched M/H for the short)

 

[Dobre]

(I didn't understand team Italy's strategy as i would have switched M/H for the short)

Me too. I think the short is Marchei & Hotarek's better program while DM&G's two programs are more in the same realm. But DM&G won Nationals. If it was their call, you can't blame any pair for wanting to skate the short rather than the free, not with the pairs event so soon after the team event.