Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[levineismine]

I looked more into some best case/worse case scenarios yesterday based on the entry info/rumours we have and for the SPs, CAN/OAR can both score in the same range in both scenarios (i.e. it's looking like a 37-38 max and 28-29 min for each). But when I look at the most likely scenarios, Canada is a couple of points ahead after the SPs. As someone else said, it will come down to the unpredictability of quads in the men event (not only Chan/Kolyada who are already themselves highly unpredictable).
FS scenarios are too many depending on who else qualifies. I thought Japan had a really good shot at bronze over the US, but now that Hanyu is out and they are splitting the men, it's less likely.

 

[soogar]

It might not be a big deal for some but probably for other skaters it is. Example Meryl and Charlie, who have a silver and a gold for the ice dance events from 2010 and 2014 and a bronze from the team event in 2014, which might not mean as much, but say for Simon Shnpir (spelling?) perhaps that might be a great memory and accomplishment that he has a medal from the Olympics. It's all a matter of perspective. I'm looking forward to the team event.

By the way for the USA, who actually decides which skaters skate which programs?

I think team events are important to everyone. It is still an Olympic medal. Half of Michael Phelps' medals are from team events and there is no clarification which events are individual and which ones are not. I also think the Olympic team event is great incentive for nations to develop strong programs in all disciplines.

 

[Erin]

Patrick is more likely to deliver than Misha, who is wildly erratic.

Patrick has been erratic this year himself. And Kolyada has a big base mark advantage with the quad lutz. I'm taking nothing for granted.

 

[Bellanca]

I also think the Olympic team event is great incentive for nations to develop strong programs in all disciplines.

This, more than anything which I support 100% despite believing the team event is/should be a work in progress that could still use some fine-tuning. We’ve had posters @ FSU who have made great suggestions in the past, but for now, we’ll just with it and enjoy it.

 

[Frida80]

I just read on twitter than Sui/Han will arrive on Feb 10th, and Boyang on the 12th. I have to redo everything! Without them, they have no chance at bronze.

 

[levineismine]

^This will make it hard for China even to make the final, opening the door to Italy.

I still expect a couple more big names not to do the team event. Official news are coming in fast now anyways.

 

[VGThuy]

This, more than anything which I support 100% despite believing the team event is/should be a work in progress that could still use some fine-tuning. We’ve had posters @ FSU who have made great suggestions in the past, but for now, we’ll just with it and enjoy it.

One thing I wanted them to change from 2014 to 2018 that didn't happen was to make the point spread in LP rankings be doubled that of the SP rankings. I still think it's odd that the SP rankings and LP rankings are the same value.

 

[levineismine]

FS scenarios if CAN, OAR, US, JPN, ITA are the finalists look more clear as the skaters fall more into defined tiers.
Barring implosions (big if), CAN/OAR will be close in pairs and men, OAR will have the lead in ladies but CAN will have potentially a bigger lead in dance. So it will be close until the end between CAN and OAR for the gold, but imo CAN has higher chance to win thanks to ice dance and likely accumulating a few points cushion in the SP.

ETA: with Hanyu out and JPN splitting men, it now looks like the bronze will be secured by the US, even if they want to rest completely Chen and use the other two men. Zhou with 2 quads in the SP can score well and Rippon is reliable in the LP, especially in a field with Tanaka and Rizzo he should get at least 3rd.

 

[Spun Silver]

I just read on twitter than Sui/Han will arrive on Feb 10th, and Boyang on the 12th. I have to redo everything! Without them, they have no chance at bronze.

This is unexpected. Are there any health issues with S/H or Jin or are they just being cautious? I suppose Yu and old man Zhang will get to do the team event now... and Han Yan?

 

[Spun Silver]

FS scenarios if CAN, OAR, US, JPN, ITA are the finalists look more clear as the skaters fall more into defined tiers.
Barring implosions (big if), CAN/OAR will be close in pairs and men, OAR will have the lead in ladies but CAN will have potentially a bigger lead in dance. So it will be close until the end between CAN and OAR for the gold, but imo CAN has higher chance to win thanks to ice dance and likely accumulating a few points cushion in the SP.

ETA: with Hanyu out and JPN splitting men, it now looks like the bronze will be secured by the US, even if they want to rest completely Chen and use the other two men. Zhou with 2 quads in the SP can score well and Rippon is reliable in the LP, especially in a field with Tanaka and Rizzo he should get at least 3rd.

I think the US will want to fight for silver now but what do I know?

 

[VGThuy]

I think the US is closer to silver than most of us think but had China and Japan used all of their no. 1 skaters in the team event we’d be at real risk of losing the bronze. Crazy things happen and Italy might be closer than we think as well.

 

[Debbie S]

With Boyang and Shoma not doing the FS, it's a no-brainer to rest Nathan and use Adam for the FS. Skating his best, Adam could beat both Han and Tanaka and possibly Patrick, depending on which Patrick shows up. I'm sure Nathan will skate the SP, as long as he wants to be included, USFS will have him there.

 

[levineismine]

I think the US will want to fight for silver now but what do I know?

Even with Chen doing both, or just one, the US is too behind in the ladies and pairs to catch up.

In the non-Chen scenario I have the us around at least 10 points out of 2nd place, an all-Chen scenario makes up around 5-6 points (but we know US is likely splitting the men). If we say US ladies overperform, that can make up 3-4 more points, but silver is still really a stretch.

For Italy and Japan bronze looks out of reach no matter how you spin it. Of course I hope for a miracle and hope for a patriotic bronze for team Italy

 

[Frida80]

^This will make it hard for China even to make the final, opening the door to Italy.

I still expect a couple more big names not to do the team event. Official news are coming in fast now anyways.

I think I took for granted that China would have to use both Boyang me Sui/Han twice to get the bronze. The pairs is right after the team event and the men’s just after that. Sui and Han are gold medal favorites, and Boyang is a medal favorite that just won a major competition two weeks ago. Obviously they won’t want to risk losing their individual medals for a shot a team bronze.

But I firmly believe that China wil, beef of their ladies and dance so they are clear medal favorite for Beijing.

 

[levineismine]

I now have Italy and Japan almost tied for last and 7-10 pts behind the US.
For Italy to get bronze over the US, a combination of events needs to happen: DM/G and/or M/H need to beat SK/K in both segments, C/L won't beat the Shibs but need to beat B/S both times to make up a couple of points, Kostner (assuming she skates both if Italy wants any chance) needs to beat both times Can, Jpn, and US ladies (counting she cannot beat russian ladies), Rizzo will probably come last in the FS but has to skate really well the SP and pass a couple of the 'beatable' skaters for him (Fentz and Besseghier).
Long story short we need a miracle

 

[levineismine]

I think I took for granted that China would have to use both Boyang me Sui/Han twice to get the bronze. The pairs is right after the team event and the men’s just after that. Sui and Han are gold medal favorites, and Boyang is a medal favorite that just won a major competition two weeks ago. Obviously they won’t want to risk losing their individual medals for a shot a team bronze.

But I firmly believe that China wil, beef of their ladies and dance so they are clear medal favorite for Beijing.

I wouldn't be surprised if for similar reasons (shots at single medals), P/C skip the team event and even possibly Chen.

 

[Anyasnake]

I wouldn't be surprised if for similar reasons (shots at single medals), P/C skip the team event and even possibly Chen.

P/C are doing the Team event, they said this in an ISU interview

 

[Bellanca]

The pairs is right after the team event and the men’s just after that

... which will definitely influence the pairs, IMO.

Still hoping, wishing that Nathan will do both the SP/FS for the U.S.A., but doubtful.

 

[Vash01]

Even with Chen doing both, or just one, the US is too behind in the ladies and pairs to catch up.

In the non-Chen scenario I have the us around at least 10 points out of 2nd place, an all-Chen scenario makes up around 5-6 points (but we know US is likely splitting the men). If we say US ladies overperform, that can make up 3-4 more points, but silver is still really a stretch.

For Italy and Japan bronze looks out of reach no matter how you spin it. Of course I hope for a miracle and hope for a patriotic bronze for team Italy

I think the US will definitely split the men (Chen is an OGM favorite and they don't want to tire him out). They may split ice dance because they can, and make Bradie skate both programs. If they are splitting the ladies, either Shibs or H&D have to skate both programs.

Rippon can do a decent job in the LP, against weaker competition, and place second (to probably Uno).
The SP lady can be third, with a clean skate, and assuming someone else will make a mistake.
Ice dancers can be third if the top two ID teams are competing.
Pairs are weak but still stronger than the Japanese and competitive against the French, so best case 5th but 7th more likely. All countries except Canada have a major weakness each, so silver is possible but it could go either way between the USA and Russia.

 

[levineismine]

I think the US will definitely split the men (Chen is an OGM favorite and they don't want to tire him out). They may split ice dance because they can, and make Bradie skate both programs. If they are splitting the ladies, either Shibs or H&D have to skate both programs.

Rippon can do a decent job in the LP, against weaker competition, and place second (to probably Uno).
The SP lady can be third, with a clean skate, and assuming someone else will make a mistake.
Ice dancers can be third if the top two ID teams are competing.
Pairs are weak but still stronger than the Japanese and competitive against the French, so best case 5th but 7th more likely. All countries except Canada have a major weakness each, so silver is possible but it could go either way between the USA and Russia.

There are rumors that the Shibs are doing both and ladies are being split between Tennell (was posted on her fb and later deleted) and someone else (likely Nagasu).
Even with Chen in the SP, Rippon in the FS and Tennell in the SP both skating well, would be a stretch to make up the distance in pairs with CAN and RUS, in dance with CAN (and the lead on RUS is only going to be a couple of points), and the distance in ladies.

 

[Karen-W]

I looked more into some best case/worse case scenarios yesterday based on the entry info/rumours we have and for the SPs, CAN/OAR can both score in the same range in both scenarios (i.e. it's looking like a 37-38 max and 28-29 min for each). But when I look at the most likely scenarios, Canada is a couple of points ahead after the SPs. As someone else said, it will come down to the unpredictability of quads in the men event (not only Chan/Kolyada who are already themselves highly unpredictable).
FS scenarios are too many depending on who else qualifies. I thought Japan had a really good shot at bronze over the US, but now that Hanyu is out and they are splitting the men, it's less likely.

Hmmmm... I'm just not seeing Canada ahead after the SPs, and if they are it will be by 1-2 points, not 4-5. After the way Kostner was over-scored at Euros in the FP, I fully expect her to finish no lower than 3rd behind Med and possibly Miyahara, while Osmond gets dumped to 4th. The best Osmond can hope for is to be no worse than 3rd, which is still 2 pts lower than Med. The men are really unpredictable at this point but I expect that Chan and Kolyada will finish within a place of each other.

Canada would really have to have perfect skates from their entire team to beat Russia, plus some unbelievably bad performances from skaters like Sakamoto, Kostner, Kolyada, Rippon, and the Russian pairs team.

Same can be said, to be honest, of the US' chances at silver. Maximal performances from our squad with bad skates from others.

 

[toddlj]

I'm absolutely NOT an Osmond/Daleman hater, but I do think confidence is sometimes overstated for them. Both have shown real inconsistency. To assume either/both will perform to 2017 Worlds form I think is highly optimistic. I'd be happy to see it. But it's not in any way a lock.

 

[Frida80]

Hmmmm... I'm just not seeing Canada ahead after the SPs, and if they are it will be by 1-2 points, not 4-5. After the way Kostner was over-scored at Euros in the FP, I fully expect her to finish no lower than 3rd behind Med and possibly Miyahara, while Osmond gets dumped to 4th. The best Osmond can hope for is to be no worse than 3rd, which is still 2 pts lower than Med. The men are really unpredictable at this point but I expect that Chan and Kolyada will finish within a place of each other.

Canada would really have to have perfect skates from their entire team to beat Russia, plus some unbelievably bad performances from skaters like Sakamoto, Kostner, Kolyada, Rippon, and the Russian pairs team.

Same can be said, to be honest, of the US' chances at silver. Maximal performances from our squad with bad skates from others.

Kaetlyn, fourth? Very unlikely. Her SP score is very high. She scored 77 at the GPF. She's most likely to be 2nd because Carolina's jumps are very inconsistent, especially since she just upgraded her combo to 3F+3T. If Kaetlyn is clean, Satako can't touch her. At best Satako is looking at a 75 if she can rotate all her jumps. She's gotten calls for each of her SP for this season except for one. Only if Kaetlyn bombs will anyone really have a chance.

 

[laviemn]

I just read on twitter than Sui/Han will arrive on Feb 10th, and Boyang on the 12th. I have to redo everything! Without them, they have no chance at bronze.

It seems like the countries who don't believe they can win a medal aren't even trying to make the FS.

 

[Braulio]

Just when China, Japan could play a spoiler at the podium and then their top skaters wont take part of the team competition...

That kills the suspense for the medals, once again Russia (OAR), Canada and USA will win them with ease

at least the fight between oars and canucks will be interesting or so it seems

 

[Vash01]

According to my calculations Canada is running away with the Gold. USA and Russia are close for the silver. After the SP, my rankings came out as

1. Canada (big lead)
2.Russia
3. USA (just behind Russia)
4. Italy
5. France (just behind Italy)
6.Japan
7. China (just behind Japan)

Top 5 skate the LP.

1. Canada (big lead over 2)
2.Russia (just a sliver of a lead)
3.USA
4.Italy
5.France

I don't see Italy beating the USA for the bronze
Russia and USA could switch places

Canada seems comfortable in first place.

 

[Vash01]

Is it up to the skaters to decide if they want to compete in the Team event or does the fed make the decision- who will skate in the TE and which program(s)?

 

[Erin]

Canada would really have to have perfect skates from their entire team to beat Russia, plus some unbelievably bad performances from skaters like Sakamoto, Kostner, Kolyada, Rippon, and the Russian pairs team.

Same can be said, to be honest, of the US' chances at silver. Maximal performances from our squad with bad skates from others.

Yeah...I'd love it if Canada could pull off gold, but I'm having a hard time seeing it. I thought their chances of gold were better going into 2014 and look how that turned out? This year, I'm less optimistic. I think for Canada to pull off the win, they would need Chan to pull off an SP like last year's Worlds and a FP along the lines of 2016 4CC (which he looked nowhere near being able to do at Canadians), a clean short from Osmond, Daleman to repeat her free skate from Canadians, a clean short from Duhamel & Radford including a triple lutz on one foot from Eric (which we have yet to see this season), Seguin & Bilodeau to repeat their free skate from Canadians, and Virtue & Moir to replicate programs from Canadians. Mistakes from the skaters you mentioned above would help too. In the skates I mentioned from the Canadian skaters, aside from Osmond's short and maybe the Virtue & Moir performances, it's asking them to put together a skate that is equal to a skate they have achieved only once this season (Daleman and Seguin & Bilodeau) or not at all (Duhamel & Radford, Chan), which is a lot to ask. It would be great if I was wrong on this, but I don't want to get my hopes up and be disappointed.

As for the US, I think the ground that they are going to lose to Canada in pairs and dance will make it hard to catch up for silver and in that case, they would have to be hoping for a repeat of things like Canadians SP Osmond, Skate Canada LP Chan, Rostelecom LP Seguin & Bilodeau, etc.

 

[VGThuy]

I don’t think the US has to make up that much ground in ice dance. It’s pairs and ladies I’m worried about.

 

[jlai]

I don’t think the US has to make up that much ground in ice dance. It’s pairs and ladies I’m worried about.

Esp if Mirai gets dinged with urs and pairs comes behind even Italy.