July 2017 Ladies Gymnastics World Team Predictions

[rhapsody]

Gymcastic did a recap of the 92 Olympics with Wendy Bruce and they insinuated that Kim wasn't selected because of her body type since she was actually hitting regularly and did well at the final camp. Who knows though.

And to clarify, you don't need an injury to replace athletes from competitions anymore. GB pulled Nile Wilson from the AA at 2014 Worlds and replaced him with Max Whitlock who had a terrible QF and finished third among British men. And more recently, Flavia was pulled from the AA in Rio in favor of Barbosa. Both athletes who were replaced went on to compete in the event finals they qualified for instead.

As for the US selection for 2017, I think Ragan and Jade are locks barring any meltdowns. The other two spots are wide open. I think they'll go for another AAer and then a specialist who can medal.

 

[bardtoob]

Gymcastic did a recap of the 92 Olympics with Wendy Bruce and they insinuated that Kim wasn't selected because of her body type since she was actually hitting regularly and did well at the final camp. Who knows though.

I am thinking it may have been for a mix of reasons, including body type and the type of training she had. The Strauss brand of gymnastics was very vulnerable under to old 10.00 system when used by international judges.

ETA: Here is an example of the Strauss Brand of gymnastics. There are several elements in this FX where you can tell they were designed so you could never tell whether or not they were executed cleanly. However, you can tell she can't do a split leap or anything else with good lines, so it is easy to assume that nothing was done well but that was all hidden.

https://youtu.be/SZBWS68ERsg

 

[SpeedySucks]

I am thinking it may have been for a mix of reasons, including body type and the type of training she had. The Strauss brand of gymnastics was very vulnerable under to old 10.00 system.

Despite doing well at national meets, Kim had a poor track record at international competitions. She was the lowest-scoring American at 1989 Worlds, and her international outings in 1990 and 1991 were mostly terrible (including 4 falls on floor at the 1990 Chunichi Cup and a second-last place finish at the 1991 Catania Cup, where she barely averaged 9.1). Maybe she would have done better in Barcelona, but I don't blame the coaches/USGF for not trusting her to hit under pressure.

Thanks to favorable politics in the USGF, the Parkettes scored well at domestic meets in the 80s and early 90s, especially in the compulsories. For example, Hope Spivey tied for first in compulsories at 1988 Nationals, and Kim Kelly was 3rd in compulsories at 1990 Nationals and 2nd in 1991. The Parkettes' gymnasts never delivered to that level on the international stage.

 

[bardtoob]

@rhapsody

Here is an article supporting your body type comment.

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/jul/19/sports/sp-gymnastics19

 

[FiveRinger]

Despite doing well at national meets, Kim had a poor track record at international competitions. She was the lowest-scoring American at 1989 Worlds, and her international outings in 1990 and 1991 were mostly terrible (including 4 falls on floor at the 1990 Chunichi Cup and a second-last place finish at the 1991 Catania Cup, where she barely averaged 9.1). Maybe she would have done better in Barcelona, but I don't blame the coaches/USGF for not trusting her to hit under pressure.

Thanks to favorable politics in the USGF, the Parkettes scored well at domestic meets in the 80s and early 90s, especially in the compulsories. For example, Hope Spivey tied for first in compulsories at 1988 Nationals, and Kim Kelly was 3rd in compulsories at 1990 Nationals and 2nd in 1991. The Parkettes' gymnasts never delivered to that level on the international stage.

I thought you were kidding about the Chunichi Cup. That was just horrible. Maybe she was sick or recovering from an injury? Not that it matters now.....

 

[SpeedySucks]

I thought you were kidding about the Chunichi Cup. That was just horrible. Maybe she was sick or recovering from an injury? Not that it matters now.....

I don't know if she was sick or dealing with jetlag, but Kim struggled in general with having enough endurance to get through a floor routine in 1990 and 1991. She had a similar disaster at the 1991 Buckeye Classic, she fell on a double twist at the 1991 USA vs. Romania, and scored a 9.125 at the 1991 Catania Cup. Even when she hit her routine, she usually looked like she was going to faceplant at least one of her passes.

1990 Chunichi Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3lZRGx4eHA
1991 Buckeye Classic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXbGEDa5qKU
1991 USA vs. Romania: https://youtu.be/9lkhJiX0oSM?t=7m27s

 

[tylersf]

It's ironic that Bogie eventually became a Karolyi student like Kim.
Today, both of them live in Houston and I think they are on speaking terms or even friends.

I remember Svetlana Boginskaya saying after 1991 Worlds that the competition was horribly over scored in favor of the Americans, and had the competition been held in Europe, Kim Zmeskal would have never won, nor would the other Americans placed as highly as they did. There may have been some truth in that statement. Boginsksaya was biased, obviously.

 

[Erin]

So back to the original topic of this thread with US Nationals coming up this week, I'm solidly putting Ragan Smith and Jade Carey on my world team. I have Locklear and probably McCusker penciled in for the other two spots, depending on how they seem to have recovered from their injuries. I'm not really all that excited about either athlete, but if they are healthy (and if McCusker doesn't pull another American Cup), it's probably the best team the US could put forward and I still haven't seen anyone else come out and grab it. I like Morgan Hurd's neat and tidy gymnastics, but she has not exactly been a beacon of consistency this year nor is she totally healthy at the moment. If she did deliver this time, I wouldn't mind seeing get the all-around spot over McCusker though. Victoria Nguyen and Trinity Thomas are the other two I'm keep my eye on. Of the others in the poll, I don't really feel like Abby Paulson or Jordan Chiles are in the mix. Schennikova...maybe a long shot? I feel like not being able to beat Ragan Smith on bars at Classics makes it hard to make a case for her as a bars specialist and I'd pick any of Nguyen/Thomas/Hurd over her as an all-arounder. But maybe if McCusker still looks in the shape she was at Classics and Locklear isn't up to full difficulty where they really just don't have anyone else to send for the bars specialist spot, she would go. But I think that is a lot of ifs.

Now watch the results of Nationals completely upend my predictions

 

[FiveRinger]

I am not overly excited about Nationals this weekend, especially in light of the US Classic. I'm content to just wait and see what happens. I hope everyone has a good competition, though.

 

[tylersf]

The year after the Olympics is always a transition year. Everyone is getting used to the new code and we don't know if past Olympians like Simone or Laurie are coming back.

Back when Miller was competing she was on a roll from 1992 - 1994. Her injury of 1995 and her growth spurt made it tough for her in 1996. But she did get her 2 Golds in Atlanta.

I am not overly excited about Nationals this weekend, especially in light of the US Classic. I'm content to just wait and see what happens. I hope everyone has a good competition, though.

 

[Aceon6]

From last night's session, all I can think is that Ashton better keep looking over her shoulder. Some of the newer seniors should be poised to edge her out on the next team

 

[Aceon6]

When do we learn who has been invited to camp?

 

[Rob]

For camp, I am guessing:

Smith
Chiles
McCusker
Thomas
Frazier
Hurd
Carey
Gaskins
Locklear
Schennikova

Nguyen if she is recovered
Maybe Oakley and Johnson-Scharf who did well in particular events

 

[FiveRinger]

From last night's session, all I can think is that Ashton better keep looking over her shoulder. Some of the newer seniors should be poised to edge her out on the next team

She should be scared. She didn't win UB at Nationals. I think she only came in 3rd and did far below that in beam. Yes, she is rehabbing her shoulder, but her scores were low. Scores are usually inflated at Nationals. Her window is closing quickly. She can't blame Gabby for this one.

 

[tylersf]

I think that most of the seniors right now should keep looking over their shoulder for the next quad. IMHO, the juniors look more confident and hungry than the seniors. I expected more from Morgan Hurd, but her international outings were not as auspicious as I thought they would be.

From last night's session, all I can think is that Ashton better keep looking over her shoulder. Some of the newer seniors should be poised to edge her out on the next team

 

[Karina1974]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymnastics_at_the_2012_Summer_Olympics_–_Women's_artistic_qualification#Individual_All-Around_Event_Final_Qualifiers
This is not true. Gabby outscored Jordyn in the qualifications, and earned her spot, which is why Jordyn Wieber was not in the finals. No one "selected" Gabby to compete in the finals. She and Aly Raisman were the top two scoring Americans after qualifications. Jordyn was fourth. Aly and Gabby were second and third respectively. Because of the two per country rule Jordyn was bumped.

USAG could have done a "Gutsu" and put Weber in the AA instead of Gabby.

 

[Karina1974]

I remember Svetlana Boginskaya saying after 1991 Worlds that the competition was horribly over scored in favor of the Americans, and had the competition been held in Europe, Kim Zmeskal would have never won, nor would the other Americans placed as highly as they did. There may have been some truth in that statement. Boginsksaya was biased, obviously.

When HAVEN'T the Russians "wuz robbed" when they've been beaten by the Americans????

 

[hirshey girl]

https://usagym.org/pages/post.html?PostID=20727&prog=
These are the 10 girls who have been invited to the Worlds Team selection camp
Morgan Hurd
Emily Gaskins
Ashton Locklear
Jade Carey
Trinity Thomas
Regan Smith
Riley McCusker
Jordan Chiles
Margzetta Frazier
Alyona Shchennikova

 

[Bellanca]

USAG could have done a "Gutsu" and put Weber in the AA instead of Gabby.

No way! We don't do that crap in the U.S.A.... Well, unless it's USFS. BTW, congrats to Ragan & Yul!

 

[Erin]

https://usagym.org/pages/post.html?PostID=20727&prog=
These are the 10 girls who have been invited to the Worlds Team selection camp

Emily Gaskins is the only minor surprise to me on the list (although it makes sense based on her nationals performance) - not that she has a chance of making the team, but it's one of those situations where it's an honor to be invited.

There's been tons of chatter on blogs about different team options, especially in light of Chiles (a) finishing second at Nationals and (b) indicating she's got a second vault (a Lopez) that she's going to unveil at camp. I'd love to see Chiles wolf-kino her way on to the team, but I'm sticking with my pre-nationals prediction of Smith, McCusker, Locklear, and Carey, with Chiles as the non-traveling alternate.

 

[Aceon6]

Margzetta wont make the team, but it's great to have her chosen for the camp. Kid works her azz off.

 

[bardtoob]

I'd love to see Chiles wolf-kino her way on to the team, but I'm sticking with my pre-nationals prediction of Smith, McCusker, Locklear, and Carey, with Chiles as the non-traveling alternate.

This ...

... And "Wolf-kino" Love the element name!

 

[SpeedySucks]

If Locklear isn't doing full difficulty on bars at camp, I could see them taking Smith, Chiles, McCusker, and Carey, with Smith and Chiles doing AA, McCusker UB-BB, and Carey VT-FX. If McCusker can't hit her DTY consistently, it doesn't make much sense to take her as an AAer IMO.

 

[Aceon6]

OMG, I'm turning into a acronym queen. It only took a second to read double twisting Yurchenko and I'm only a casual fan. Gawd help me.

 

[DimaToe]

I REALLY want a Smith/McCusker/Thomas/Chiles team, I know on paper it's foolish to leave Jade Carey at home, but she's so messy and I really like Chiles and Thomas, plus if Chiles does compete two vaults then the choice seems obvious to me

(TBH a Hurd/McCusker/Thomas/Chiles team is my dream, but that's way too much inconsistency )

I say if Locklear isn't at full difficulty by October that McCusker's bars>Locklear's bars, but then again having 2 event final contenders on bars might be something that Liukin might want.

 

[tylersf]

McCusker withdrew from camp due to injury...
https://usagym.org/pages/post.html?PostID=20791&prog=h