Gymnastics #24 - The Road to Paris

So, at this point, I think I would choose Simone, Suni, Jordan, and Jade. If we were to assume for the sake of argument that these four are on the team, who would make the most sense for a fifth team member?
 
I was watching on Peacock and the coverage ended before I could see the last little bit of the event. Did they show Jordan's vault and Jade's Amanar?
 
Without Shilese and Skye, I feel like Jade and Jordan are basically locks, with Simone and Suni. It probably comes down to Leanne vs Joscelyn....Leanne probably does a better job filling the holes, but I would only use her on bars and beam.

Shilese is a better bet than Leanne on bars, but IMO it's too risky to take an injured athlete.
I don't agree about Josc. I'm crunching the numbers right now but Kaliya, Hezly and Tiana have better, usable scores on two apparatus than Josc. I'm working on crunching the numbers right now but I don't see a scenario where Josc makes the team over Hezly or Tiana - maybe over Kaliya but Kaliya's floor could be enough to put her on the team.

Shilese... I just can't see her going for bars alone. If you're going to take someone who has a top 3 score in one event alone then that person also needs to have a usable/good score in at least one other event - Kaliya fits that bill better, TBH.
 
So, at this point, I think I would choose Simone, Suni, Jordan, and Jade. If we were to assume for the sake of argument that these four are on the team, who would make the most sense for a fifth team member?
For me Leanne as she does well on all events so if an issue with one of the top 4 she is right there. Plus she brings the beautiful lines.
 
I was watching on Peacock and the coverage ended before I could see the last little bit of the event. Did they show Jordan's vault and Jade's Amanar?

Why did they not show Jade second vault, what the heck was the score in the first one? this peacock main live feed is for the birds

I was watching on Peacock and they showed Jordan's vault.

I think Leanne was on floor during Jade's vault. They could have shown it after, though. When the main feed ended, I switched over to the vault feed and quickly rewound and saw Jade's vault. She was a little under and had to take one step. Josc and Simone were there to give her hugs.
 
I think the team is looking to be Simone, Jordan, Jade, Suni, and Leanne. I think Shi is too injured and that completely sucks. A knee injury is one thing. A shoulder injury is another. But both? Leanne can at least cover bars and beam and as long as she doesn’t do the cheng, should be ok.
 
If the top four AA deliver again Sunday it would be near impossible to deny them. Looking at Jordan, Suni and Simone's bar scores they don't really "need" Shilese's score there. My gut feeling is those four (Simone, Jordan, Suni, Jade) will make the team and they will also name Shi. I don't think they are going to deviate from the AA standings that much, and if Shi were healthy that would pretty much be the top 5 AA.
I don't see any scenario where Wong makes the team sadly.
Roberson's vault score seemed a little low to me. They didn't show her beam on the broadcast but she managed third there.
To be honest the top 5 AA here would win the Olympic team title easily.
Anyway bring on Sunday.
 
I should clarify that I was watching Peacock and my entire app just randomly stopped and threw me out which is how I ended up missing the last two vaults. I will go rewind later tonight so I can see them. Thanks! :)
 
Just using the scores from tonight, the area where a team of Suni, Jade, Simone, and Jordan looks to be weakest is… beam.

For vault, that would be 1st, 2nd, and 4th on the night. For bars, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the night. For floor, 1st, 3rd, and 4th on the night. For beam, 1st, 4th, and 5th. One assumes Simone is not actually our 4th best beam worker, but it’s still the only apparatus where we don’t have 3 of the top 4.

That being said, without Shi and Skye, we don’t have many options on beam who will increase the score.
 
For me Leanne as she does well on all events so if an issue with one of the top 4 she is right there. Plus she brings the beautiful lines.
Actually maybe better for Hezley to go, with athletes doing two Olympic cycles it would be helping the next generation, or at least an alternate
 
If the top four AA deliver again Sunday it would be near impossible to deny them. Looking at Jordan, Suni and Simone's bar scores they don't really "need" Shilese's score there.
Shilese had the top score, so they would have used it if she actually competed. Simone, Suni, and Jordan were the three behind her, so nobody else really makes a case for having a useable score.

On beam, Suni had the highest score. Simone had a bunch of issues, so was only fifth. Ordinarily, though, her score would count. Tiana was second, followed by Joscelyn. So, there's a little argument for Tiana.

On floor, it was Simone in first, followed by Kaliya, Jordan, and Jade all within five hundredths of a point of each other. So, slight argument for Kaliya.

On vault, it was Simone followed by Jade and then Leanne, and then a tie between Jordan and Joscelyn. I think Leanne was gifted and they wouldn't use her because she's reportedly been having problems with the vault all week in practice. So, I don't really see much argument for anyone on vault.

Leanne wasn't in the top five on anything besides vault, so I don't see a strong argument for her. Joscelyn, Tiana, and Kaliya are pretty close in the AA scores. So, if we're mainly thinking of a fallback ready to go on most things in case of injuries, I'm not sure there's a strong argument there, either. It might come down to who they think is the healthiest and most reliable after day 2.

 
Crunching numbers... Here are the 5-person combinations that score 172.5+ (using the average of the 3 scores from Champs x2 + Trials Night 1)

1) 173.092 - Biles, Chiles, Lee, Lincoln, Sumanasekera
2) 173.075 - Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee, Sumanasekera
3) 173.067 - Biles, Chiles, Lee, Lincoln, Rivera
4) 173.050 - Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee, Rivera
5) 173.025 - Biles, Carey, Lee, Lincoln, Rivera
6) 172.967 - Biles, Carey, Jones, Lee, Lincoln
7) 172.908 - Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee, Lincoln
8) 172.783 - Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee, Roberson
9) 172.700 - Biles, Chiles, Jones, Lee, Lincoln
10) 172.683 - Biles, Carey, Chiles, Jones, Lee
11) 172.625 - Biles, Carey, Lee, Rivera, Sumanasekera

In not one of those configurations does Wong figure or bring a decent enough score to be usable.

Jade can boost her contribution with another 14+ floor score on Sunday and I can't really see a scenario where she's left off the team given her strength is floor and vault and Kaliya's score from both of those is just from tonight since she didn't compete either at Championships - so Kaliya's average could drop her behind Jade when it's all said and done.

I also really don't see a scenario where Shilese petitions her way onto this team unless she is healthy enough to compete at least UB and BB on Sunday. Tiana is boosted because her BB and FX score matters in most of the scenarios (but that could be slightly negated once Kaliya has a different FX average score).

Right now - Biles, Chiles & Lee are locked in and Carey is all but locked. Last spot is up for grabs and I can see Sumanasekera nabbing it thanks to those BB and FX scores helping where the team would be weakest.
 

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