Chances are higher than last year for Tuk to get the 3rd spot. But. There are other skater who may outperform her at the Russian Cup Finals.The biggest question will be is Kostornaia going to compete? If not, Tuk will get the 3rd worlds spot, which she deserves, IMHO. It would be a real shame if history repeated itself.
Nugumanova was 6th, above Tuk, at the Russian Nationals.
Tsibinova was 8th, right behind Tuk, with 0.71 difference.
Sinitsyna just skated at an event and earned 202+ points (while Tuk earned 204 at Rus. Natl).
(Sinitsyna lands quads in practice, IG video from last event)
Yes, Tuk won the Rus. GP, but only because Trusova had a break-down, and other top skaters were absent.
If Tuk is sent, if all skate clean with their best content, Tuk will probably be passed by Kihira, Sakomoto, Miahara, and likely Bradie, and maybe even Chen. Russian Feds are not used to Rus. Ladies coming in 7-8-9 places. And if that's the only option, for one of the ladies to come in 7-8-9, then why not send a younger more promising Lady, like Sinitsyna (if she has a quad).
In any case, we'll see what Rus. Federation's intentions are, based on how Tuk is judges against other ladies.