Deadhorse Thread: Brown v. Malinin Olympic Selection

[her grace]

There's been some discussion that the Olympic team selection needs its own thread so we can move on in the U.S. men's thread. So here it is: Brown v. Malinin. Criticize, Speculate, Justify, etc.

FWIW, I thought the Committee should have taken Malinin, but after the Olympics, and especially after Worlds, I think the USFS decision was the right one. See, someone can change their mind.

 

[Wyliefan]

THANK YOU. I could actually feel myself start to die of boredom as this went on and on and on and on and ON in the men's thread.

 

[jlai]

I think it's hard to pick between deserving candidates and no matter what and who there will be heartbreaks. For me the most important thing is whether the criteria they used were communciated to the athletes clearly and early, so the athletes planned accordingly.
Onward and upward!

 

[jeffisjeff]

I predict that a more accurate thread title would involve the word "whining"...

 

[moebius]

I still think they should've sent Ilia to the Olympics for experience so that he can learn from his mistakes. And when it's his time, he's less likely to crack under pressure. Plus who knows what will happen in the next Olympic cycle. He might not even make it to the next Olympics. It's not like Jason Brown has a chance at the podium, so why send him versus someone who may have a chance at the podium in the future.

 

[Karen-W]

I just don't get, and didn't at the time, the "Oh, we need Jason to save us if Nathan or Vincent can't compete in the TE" and then, when he had to withdraw from the Men's comp, the "oh, thank God, we still have someone who will finish highly placed!" arguments from those who advocated for him to be sent.

Ilia's score in the SP in Montpellier would have been 2nd in the TE behind Shoma. It would not have changed the results. His score in the FS in Montpellier would have had him 3rd, which is exactly where Vincent placed, so no difference in points.

Ilia's overall score in Montpellier would have had him, with all the same skaters except Brown, 11th. And that's with him falling apart in the 2nd half of the FS. Mind, his Montpellier SP score would have also had him in 4th, so I'm going to operate under the assumption that the pressure he felt in Montpellier, being so tantalizingly close to his stated goal of "winning a medal at Worlds", would have been just as intense had he been in a similar position at the Olympics. So, the kid goes, falls apart and learns a valuable lesson, and America doesn't really care THAT much because Nathan still won the gold and we all saw how Nathan bounced back after the 2018 disappointment, so America would take it as "Ilia will be ready in 4 years to seize his moment." OR, you know, Ilia falls on the opening 4z like he did at Challenge Cup and then picks himself up, thinking a medal is surely gone and skates lights out the rest of the program and stays in 4th or maybe drops to 5th or 6th behind Hanyu and Cha.

All I know is that I never once bought into the straw argument that Team USA needed Jason as some sort of insurance policy should Nathan or Vincent not be available for the TE, or because we needed our 3rd man to finish Top 10. Uhm, okay, then was the USFS banking on Karen or Mariah in the women? Alysa was the only one likely to finish top 10, though it's nice that Mariah managed to slide into 10th. We didn't need Hawayek/Baker to finish top 10, and no one expected it given the usual ice dance pecking order. It's a ridiculous argument to make and it, literally, did not matter in the other disciplines, so why did it matter in Men? It shouldn't have mattered.

 

[alj5]

May I stir the pot a little.

For me, the question wasn't Jason vs Ilia. The question in my mind was Ilia vs Vincent.

Ilia deserved to go to the Olympics because he finished 2nd at nationals with two great skates, he was consistent in the fall on the JGP series, would've likely won the JGP final. It's a similar position to Polina Edmonds in 2014.

Jason loves skating, is an overall better skater, has better programs, and for what it's worth Jason's Olympic score beats Vincent's worlds score. Ilia could've gone to the olympics with no pressure and finished somewhere in/around the top 10, and then come to worlds ready to podium.

Vincent rarely looks like he enjoys skating, should be at least 5 points behind Jason on all program components, has forgetable programs, quads often downgraded, and barely beat Jason at nationals when both were skating poorly.

 

[e2theeyepie]

May I stir the pot a little.

For me, the question wasn't Jason vs Ilia. The question in my mind was Ilia vs Vincent.

You're definitely not the only one who thought this way.

 

[kwanfan1818]

For me, the question wasn't Jason vs Ilia. The question in my mind was Ilia vs Vincent.

It didn't matter: by the criteria USFS created for 2022, which were different than the 2014 or 2018 selection criteria, Zhou was in Group 2, and, by definition, to be selected above anyone in Group 3. That left the choice between Brown and Malinin, who were in Group 3.

I'm not a Zhou fan, but he's a skater who has so much technical difficulty that if he lands things in the right general direction and on one foot, he can lose 21.02 points in TES between the last number shown on the tracker* and his final TES -- 9.4 points off 61.07 (15%) in the SP and 11.62 (11%) off 105.58 in the FS -- and still win the bronze medal at Worlds. Hanyu and Chen weren't there like they were in Beijing, and Olympic pressure is different, etc, etc, but Zhou could have done very well in Beijing, even with the same kind of calling.

*There's usually some minor movement while the last scores come in and after they remove the tracker from the screen, but not a huge difference from the judges, only from the tech panel after reviews.

 

[Karen-W]

May I stir the pot a little.

For me, the question wasn't Jason vs Ilia. The question in my mind was Ilia vs Vincent.

As @kwanfan1818 already explained, the 2022 Selection criteria had Vincent firmly qualified into Group 2 priority status ahead of Jason & Ilia in Group 3 priority status. So, that Ilia v. Vincent was never a discussion. It was always Ilia v. Jason.

Ilia deserved to go to the Olympics because he finished 2nd at nationals with two great skates, he was consistent in the fall on the JGP series, would've likely won the JGP final. It's a similar position to Polina Edmonds in 2014.

Competing on the JGP this fall hurt him, especially once the GPF/JGPF was cancelled, because junior scores aren't as high, usually, as senior scores and there was no clear explanation how JGP scores would be compared to GP or CS scores achieved by skaters only competing on the senior level. I actually think the GPF/JGPF cancellation also hurt Vincent because it would have given him the opportunity to bounce back from a disappointing FS at NHK and regain some of his confidence, plus he probably would have soundly beat Jason based on the scores they'd earned during the entire fall season. If we'd gone into Nationals with that additional data point for all three skaters, I think Jason would have suffered in comparison to both Ilia and Vincent when the Selection Committee met after the Men's FS in Nashville.

Jason loves skating, is an overall better skater, has better programs, and for what it's worth Jason's Olympic score beats Vincent's worlds score. Ilia could've gone to the olympics with no pressure and finished somewhere in/around the top 10, and then come to worlds ready to podium.

Vincent loves skating too. Vincent's programs are perfectly fine - and I'd make the argument his FS when skated full out like it was at SkAm is better than Jason's FS. Both guys went back to old programs and re-worked them for this season but Vincent's is the better program - the choreo is better suited to the musical highlights, IMO. Everyone knows I adore Jason's "Sinnerman" SP, but I also quite like Vincent's "Vincent" SP, for him. No, it isn't better, but it is a really nice vehicle for him and it clearly touches him - I can feel his emotion every time he skates that program, right through to his fingertips.

I do agree, though, that Ilia could have gone to the Olympics with no pressure, finished somewhere around 10th, and then come to Worlds ready to podium.

Vincent rarely looks like he enjoys skating, should be at least 5 points behind Jason on all program components, has forgetable programs, quads often downgraded, and barely beat Jason at nationals when both were skating poorly.

Well, he still beat him, though, right? There's a whole thread in KnC for the Men's FS at Nationals devoted to that argument. This isn't the thread to tear apart Vincent in support of Jason.