Big Brother 21

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I am also not convinced Holly puts up Christie-Tommy if she wins the F5 (or F6) HOH. Holly likes Tommy a lot and she isn't what I call a strategist. Then again none of this cast is what I call a strategist. Christie goes up but the 2nd person is anyones guess. Aligning with Nicole/Cliff was also more Jackson's idea than it ever was Holly's.
 

Tony Wheeler

Well-Known Member
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6,025
Cliff will for sure go after Tommy. He knows Tommy is skating by with little in terms of drama or enemies. Nicole (if she’s calmed from her paranoia) probably does too. Michie will probably get Holly to go after Christie. Christie goes after Michie. Tommy, I don’t know but he has to know Michie is the biggest obstacle in terms of winning future HOH/veto. And as friendly as he is, he needs a big move.

It’s all dependent on that double eviction veto holder, but I’d say Michie is more likely to go because of Nicole and Cliff being so weak in comps. Next would be Tommy, and a small chance Christie goes. But I don’t see Cliff or Nicole going in any situation. Holly only goes if Michie wins veto and takes himself off while he’s next to her, but I’m not even sure he would do it.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
Cliff will for sure go after Tommy. He knows Tommy is skating by with little in terms of drama or enemies. Nicole (if she’s calmed from her paranoia) probably does too. Michie will probably get Holly to go after Christie. Christie goes after Michie. Tommy, I don’t know but he has to know Michie is the biggest obstacle in terms of winning future HOH/veto. And as friendly as he is, he needs a big move.

It’s all dependent on that double eviction veto holder, but I’d say Michie is more likely to go because of Nicole and Cliff being so weak in comps. Next would be Tommy, and a small chance Christie goes. But I don’t see Cliff or Nicole going in any situation. Holly only goes if Michie wins veto and takes himself off while he’s next to her, but I’m not even sure he would do it.
Cliff would do whatever Jackson says. He is far up his ass, he wants his babies. So since Jackson wants Christie out over Tommy, Cliff would wind up going along guaranteed with that regardless if Cliff himself would rather Tommy. Pathetic pussy Cliff would even take Nicole out if his new king Jackson ordered him to.

I think Nicole would put up Holly/Jackson. In fact watching the feeds the last couple days I am pretty sure she would. She is never winning HOH so it is moot though.

I think Tommy only goes if he is up against Christie and she wins veto, and even then I could see him staying if he is with Michie or Holly as Nicole seems to be clueing into what threats they are and had a talk with Tommy about going after them. Or even against Cliff possibly as Holly and Jackson are starting to build him up as a threat too. Just a reminder Tony Wheeler you have been predicting Tommy to go for awhile now and not been even close to right, in fact he hasn't even been on the block yet.

And Michie 100% takes himself off if he is next to Holly. Guy is a grade A douche, he isn't going to make some knight in white armour move.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I said I feel Tommy would be the perfect victim of a double eviction. Check it ;)
We will see, but like I said unless Christie is on the block with him and wins veto I don't see it. And even then possibly not. Jackson and Holly want Christie out over Tommy 100% right now, not sure Nicole wants Tommy out next, and while Cliff does want Tommy out next he is a useless nothing who is just Jackson's dirty rag and 2nd vote at this point. He even told Jackson where his clue was for the veto, and volunteered himself to go up on the block if either Christie or Jess came down (this was before Tommy even won veto).
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I think Nicole is almost a lock for Final 2 unfortunately. Since she is such a HUGE unwinnable goat, she doesn't have a prayer in hell of winning against a single person left in the house, even Jess or Jackson would beat her. The others know that so it would be dumb to target her. The only way she doesn't make it is if somehow either the Christie/Tommy pair or the Jackson/Holly pair stay intact. If that happens they probably take each other over her out of loyalty, otherwise she makes F2.

Which is bad news for Cliff since I never see a Cliff/Nicole F2 happening which means he has almost no shot to make it.
 

Tony Wheeler

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,025
I think Nicole is almost a lock for Final 2 unfortunately. Since she is such a HUGE unwinnable goat, she doesn't have a prayer in hell of winning against a single person left in the house, even Jess or Jackson would beat her. The others know that so it would be dumb to target her. The only way she doesn't make it is if somehow either the Christie/Tommy pair or the Jackson/Holly pair stay intact. If that happens they probably take each other over her out of loyalty, otherwise she makes F2.

Which is bad news for Cliff since I never see a Cliff/Nicole F2 happening which means he has almost no shot to make it.
If Nicole is sitting next to Christie in the final 2, I could see her winning. She really only needs one big win to at least have something and then build a speech about it, and for me that would be winning the veto in final 4 week. The HOH is absolutely pointless for that eviction besides being safe (so that wouldn't really give her anything to brag about), but the POV holder has all the power and really shapes how the end of the game is likely to play out. That, and of course a big win on the final HOH could be enough.

For me, Holly is sitting in the best spot. She's played a great game, everyone loves her, and she has Jackson as her shield to at least get through this double. The only thing that could really go wrong for her is if Christie or Tommy both make it through the week (most likely meaning her shield is evicted) and one becomes HOH at the end of a long Thursday night. She would have to be their target considering Cliff and Nicole's competition records.

If one of Holly/Nicole/Cliff becomes HOH on the double, though (therefore sending out Christie or Tommy), then Holly is pretty much guaranteed final 3 IMO.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
Nicole would not beat Christie. Jack, Jess, Sis, Tommy would 100% be locked votes for Christie. Kat would 90% vote Christie over Nicole too. Even if Nicole swept the other votes which she probably wouldn't, she loses, even to Christie.

Nicole would have to do way more than win the F4 veto to make a winning case for herself against anyone.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
No one in the jury has beef with Nicole.
No beef maybe but Jack, Sis, Christie wouldn't vote her over anyone as they have no bond with her except maybe Christie over Jackson. Jess and Kat would also almost never vote her as they have had issues with her and like all the others left better. And her game is non existing, so even if the people who like her like Cliff and Nick would have a hard time voting her unless she is with someone they both dislike and who they also think played a weak game.

There is a reason Jackson and Holly want to keep her over Christie and Tommy. They know she is 10 times easier to beat than they would be.
 

Tony Wheeler

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,025
What a great night! I was so excited for Nicole’s lead but then thought she might blow it on the hockey part. I really was screaming at the screen for her to get it though 😆

I think Cliff might still have Tommy in his sights but I have a feeling he may jump ship with Nicole to try to become a final 3 with him, or at least work to get Michie out and then it may just become a big battle at 4 and the all-important veto.
 
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vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
What a great night! I was so excited for Nicole’s lead but then thought she might blow it on the hockey part. I really was screaming at the screen for her to get it though 😆

I think Cliff might still have Tommy in his sights but I have a feeling he may jump ship with Nicole to try to become a final 3 with him, or at least work to get Michie out and then it may just become a big battle at 4 and the all-important veto.
Cliff would NEVER beat either Tommy or Holly in a Final 2. He would or atleast should want 1 of those 2 out, although splitting up the showmance might be preferable for obvious reasons. Next to Nicole though, Michie is definitely his best chance to win in a F2 though, I doubt he really would want Michie out now as his first choice. Actually now that Nicole atleast has a bit of something on her resume Michie might make the best goat since he is such an asshole, and apart from his strength in comp wins his game isn't good either. Plus Christie, Tommy, Jess, Sis, and probably Kat would never vote for Jackson in any F2.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
Voting Christie out over Tommy is stupid too, but I predicted and knew all along that would happen if it came down to it, despite the non logic to it. Christie isn't a bigger threat than Tommy in any capacity at this point, and is way less of a jury threat, I think it was only because Jackson/Holly like him better and Jackson needed to end his long personal grudge with Christie, and Holly loves Tommy, and Cliff especialy is a useless Jackson minion with no brain so just followed what Jackson wanted. Nicole at that point has no choice but to follow the pack.

For that matter even putting up Christie/Tommy over Holly/Jackson from Nicole's perspective has no real logic to it considering which pair is clearly the stronger in comps, but maybe I am underestimating how strong Christie/Tommy are in mental comps, and how Jackson/Holly might not be as strong in those as they have been in comps in the season so far. The final comps are usualy different in nature.
 

Tony Wheeler

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6,025
Cliff would NEVER beat either Tommy or Holly in a Final 2. He would or atleast should want 1 of those 2 out, although splitting up the showmance might be preferable for obvious reasons. Next to Nicole though, Michie is definitely his best chance to win in a F2 though, I doubt he really would want Michie out now as his first choice. Actually now that Nicole atleast has a bit of something on her resume Michie might make the best goat since he is such an asshole, and apart from his strength in comp wins his game isn't good either. Plus Christie, Tommy, Jess, Sis, and probably Kat would never vote for Jackson in any F2.
But when they get down to 4, they would probably be concerned with Michie being an HOH/veto threat and then obviously picking Holly to stick around for 3- and then they have a 2 in 3 chance of making the finals together.

If you split them up at 5, both Holly and Tommy will likely be trying to bring Nicole and Cliff with them into the 3, and then at minimum, one of those two will at least have a chance at final HOH.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
But when they get down to 4, they would probably be concerned with Michie being an HOH/veto threat and then obviously picking Holly to stick around for 3- and then they have a 2 in 3 chance of making the finals together.

If you split them up at 5, both Holly and Tommy will likely be trying to bring Nicole and Cliff with them into the 3.
True that is a good point.

I don't know though, Holly and Tommy are very close and I think like each other better than either like Nicole and Cliff. Jackson's influence and Christie's being there are the main reasons Holly has had to keep apart from Tommy but with both Christie and Jackson out I could see them protecting each other over Nicole and Cliff. Especialy as both are more emotional players than strategic players. Add to all that Nicole/Cliff are the only pair left and I could see them both targetting the pair.

So while that logic should make sense, I am not sure if it really holds true in this case.

You are right though, it still probably makes sense to break up the showmance but I would target Holly over Jackson if I were Cliff and tried to split them up. Jackson is more likely to be loyal to Cliff than Holly ever would, and is much easier to beat in a vote. And Holly is nearly as much a comp threat as Jackson anyway.
 

Tony Wheeler

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6,025
True that is a good point.

I don't know though, Holly and Tommy are very close and I think like each other better than either like Nicole and Cliff. Jackson's influence and Christie's being there are the main reasons Holly has had to keep apart from Tommy but with both Christie and Jackson out I could see them protecting each other over Nicole and Cliff. Especialy as both are more emotional players than strategic players. Add to all that Nicole/Cliff are the only pair left and I could see them both targetting the pair.

So while that logic should make sense, I am not sure if it really holds true in this case.
So then Cliff and Nicole might want to think about getting rid of Holly if the option presents itself but I don’t see how it would work in any situation. I think she’s obviously a bigger threat than Michie, but they might see him still as the comp beast that can more or less run the rest of the game.

Or they might try to stay true to their word and get Tommy next. But it’s too risky to have Holly AND Michie in the final 4 POV IMO.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
So then Cliff and Nicole might want to think about getting rid of Holly if the option presents itself but I don’t see how it would work in any situation. I think she’s obviously a bigger threat than Michie, but they might see him still as the comp beast that can more or less run the rest of the game.

Or they might try to stay true to their word and get Tommy next. But it’s too risky to have Holly AND Michie in the final 4 POV IMO.
I would target Holly. She is just as big a comp threat as Michie, she is the only one to win 2 HOHs and has won as many combined HOHs and vetos as Michie has. In addition to a much bigger jury threat. And the final comps are mostly mental and Holly would be stronger than Michie in those anyway. Cliff can't beat Holly or Tommy in a jury vote IMO, so if he winds up in a F4 without Michie he now has to get to a F2 with Nicole at all costs to win, and that would not be easy to do, especialy since I expect both Holly and Tommy to be strong in those, stronger than Michie in fact if they are the usual sort.

Holly would be who I would target if I were any of the others left besides Michie obviously. Break up the showmance, get out the stronger half of it too. And for Cliff especialy who you are focusing mostly on Michie is much more likely to be loyal to him than Holly ever would be (or Tommy of course).
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I am rooting for Holly to win the season so I sure hope that doesn't happen and Jackson, Tommy, or even Cliff are targetted instead, but if I were Tommy/Cliff/Nicole that is who I would try and get out next, especialy Cliff.
 

Tony Wheeler

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6,025
Spoiler



Welp, here we go. Jackson is HOH. I’d guess Cliff and Tommy go on the block with Nicole only being replacement but in no real danger.

Have to wonder if Holly would keep Tommy and cause the likely tie that Michie would break. But if they think ahead, probably better to leave Cliff and Nicole as they are still less threats both game-wise and comp-wise.

Seeing how Michie and Holly are now guaranteed final 4, their chances of sweeping all the money are huge. All they need is that POV next week and just write them the checks. Guarantee they are also smart enough to NOT go for HOH, so we will probably see Nicole as the third with them battling for the finals.

ETA- they actually aren’t guaranteed final 4. If Cliff and Tommy go up and Nicole wins and uses veto, Holly would go up, and Nicole and Cliff would HAVE to make their move. I would actually love if that happened and they were smart enough to realize it.
 
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vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
Apparently the veto is the comic book veto. I would guess Tommy is the favorite to win that anyway, and even if he doesnt it will be rigged for him to have the winning time, so I will be very surprised if he doesn't take himself off the block (if he goes up).

I agree things are setting up for a Jackson/Holly Final 2 either way. Nicole/Cliff are stupid to not see what they were enabling all along but hardly surprised as both are dumb and bad game players. I love Holly so I just hope to god she wins that F2 if it happens, I would love that outcome, a Jackson win would make me quit watching the show for good.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
People on the Big Brother forums are rightfully ridiculing idiot duo Nicole/Cliff for not nominating Jackson/Holly and getting Jackson out during the DE, ROTFL!! I am loving watching them getting RIPPED after all the undeserved praised they have been getting for awhile. That is why Jackson/Holly chose that pair of dumb dumbs as their Final 4. Not only are they the 2 easiest people in the entire house (besides maybe Analyse) to beat in a F2, which is needed for Jackson especialy as he would lose to most people in the house in a F2, but they are also weak in comps, and brainless dope dopes who would happily do what Jackson/Holly tell them as they have no brains of their own. They just are helping enable an easy Jackson/Holly Final 2 at this point, I bet they would even vote each other out over their beloved Jolly.

I am happy since that means maybe Kat has a chance to win Americas Favorite Player over Cliff or Nicole who were probably the 2 frontrunners until now. Kat deserves it way more. Not only is she a much better player, but far more entertaining.
 

Tony Wheeler

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Messages
6,025
Why would they want Jackson out over the duo of Christie and Tommy though? Tommy is going to win versus every other person. Jackson- I question whether he even beats Nicole now. The problem is that they really needed (Cliff) to win this HOH. They still have a chance if Tommy or somehow Holly goes this week.
 

Sparks

Well-Known Member
Messages
9,509
There is a slim chance Holly could leave next week.
Jackson puts Cliff and Tommy OTB. Nicole wins veto, takes Cliff off. Holly HAS to go up.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
Why would they want Jackson out over the duo of Christie and Tommy though? Tommy is going to win versus every other person. Jackson- I question whether he even beats Nicole now. The problem is that they really needed (Cliff) to win this HOH. They still have a chance if Tommy or somehow Holly goes this week.
Tommy is easy to get out. He isn't a comp beast and we are a long way from the end.

Christie would be easy to beat in the end, and she also isn't a comp beast so would be easy to get out.

Jackson/Holly are going to comp their way to the end as a Final 2, and even if Nicole or Cliff manage to win the right lucky comp or two to make it there with 1 of them both Jackson/Holly beat both Cliff/Nicole anyway, regardless if Tommy is harder to beat.

I hate Jackson but I don't think the jury hates him as much as you and others wish they would. The exit interviews have some praising comments for him. And it is impossible to not respect his comp wins and controlling the game for about a month now.
 

TanithandBenFan

Author of the Ice and Edge Series
Messages
7,817
Well whatever happens I'm just glad Nicole won the DE HOH so she could have that moment of pure joy. She's a breath of fresh air in this game. Even though Michie was the obvious choice to try to get out, I don't blame her for putting up Christie and Tommy instead. With all Christie's manipulations, I would have been leery of trusting her too. Plus if Nicole had turned on Jolly, then the surviving member may have come after her for breaking their F4 agreement.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
I think we might as well just skip forward to the Jackson/Holly Final 2. That is what is going to happen and Nicole & Cliff are pathetically enabling it at this point. I am honestly not upset about it though, and even in fact happy. I love Holly, and while I dislike Jackson I would stay way rather Jackson or Holly win the game, and Jackson and Holly in the finals than Cliff or Nicole. They are very weak players and have done nothing to deserve finals, let alone winning. The only reason they are still here is Jackson & Holly super wisely identified them as super weak pawns and goats to drag along, enable them, and do their bidding while they won competitions.
 

TanithandBenFan

Author of the Ice and Edge Series
Messages
7,817
If it comes down to Jackson and Holly, I think Jackson deserves to win over her with their resumes to this point. Also he's a total d-bag, but she's just as bad for coddling him and letting him walk all over her. It's pathetic to watch.

Holly and Jackson teamed up with Cliff and Nicole because Jackson refused to team back up with Christie and they couldn't work with Tommy without Christie involved. Nicole and Cliff were their only options in the game at that point.
 

vanillashake

Banned Member
Messages
270
If it comes down to Jackson and Holly, I think Jackson deserves to win over her with their resumes to this point. Also he's a total d-bag, but she's just as bad for coddling him and letting him walk all over her. It's pathetic to watch.

Holly and Jackson teamed up with Cliff and Nicole because Jackson refused to team back up with Christie and they couldn't work with Tommy without Christie involved. Nicole and Cliff were their only options in the game at that point.
I think Holly has played a much better social game and a slightly better strategic game. Jackson's only edge is comps, and Holly has also been a beast there. I admit I am biased though since I love Holly and can't stand Jackson but I really think Holly would win. Jackson probably gets Cliff. Nicole, Jack, Sis would be toss ups. Christie, Tommy, Nick, and obviously Kat and Jess are guaranteed to vote Holly over Jackson.

And your bottom point is true but I am sure Jackson/Holly still knew Cliff/Nicole the 2 weakest in comps of everyone, the 2 easiest to beat in a jury vote besides Sis in the whole house, and also unstrategic and easy pawns to use and manipulate.
 

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