2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Karen-W]

I think if Ilia feels confident he can land the 4a+3t in the TE SP then he should do it. It's never going to happen if he never tries it and he had already tried it once this season. It didn't work out at the GPF but neither did the 6-quqd layout there at the GPF the first time he tried it and it was much better the next time he went for it.

Having said that, I'd rather he not go for it tomorrow or Tuesday in the individual SP. It's not worth it, from a points perspective, I don't think. He loses the 10% bonus for the combo in the 2nd half of the program, plus the extra GOE he almost always racks up with that gorgeous 4F he starts off with, and I don't think the upside of being the first to land a 4A+3T in the SP is there, especially if it winds up being the slightest bit messy or UR.

 

[kwanfan1818]

He's not leaving an awful lot for his next two Olympics .

On the other hand, there may be another man or two or three who also has a 4A/3T in 2030, and that man will be seeded lower and will skate before him, and unless he attempts it in the next week, he may not be the first. If he wants to be the first, 2026 is probably his best chance.

 

[Allskate]

Having said that, I'd rather he not go for it tomorrow or Tuesday in the individual SP. It's not worth it, from a points perspective, I don't think.

I don't think he'd be doing it for the points. Not points for his own score, and definitely not points for the team score. I think he just wants to land the quad axel at the Olympics. But, I think it makes much more sense for him to do it in the long program and to decide whether to do it in the TE based on where things stand at the time.

Kagiyama has said that he is going for the quad flip at the Olympics, but I suspect he will not be attempting that in the TE SP. And I think Ilia would still beat him in the short even if he did.

 

[Vagabond]

Do they have assigned levels for quints yet?

I don't think the Olympics is where anyone wants to debut a new jump anyway.

Yes, up to the quintuple lutz.

https://isu-d8g8b4b7ece7aphs.a03.azurefd.net/isudamcontainer/CMS/Corporate-Site/Governance/Transparency/ISU-Communications/2707-ISU-SOV-SinglesPairs-2025-26-25-05-01-1747377995-9986.pdf

Quint God will reveal himself soon enough.

 

[peibeck]

Yes, up to the quintuple luLutz.

All quintuples with a base value of 14? That seems like they aren't really expecting any.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

It doesn’t make him a poor sport. He’s worked hard this Olympic cycle and wearing himself out before he even gets to the individual event. The schedule sucks for the men and the dancers and no one should feel guilty if there are other athletes available to skate the free.

Except that’s not what anyone is talking about.

 

[skateboy]

It confuses me that everyone is concerned about athletes getting "rest" before their events.

Olympic skaters are in peak physical condition when at the Games, train for hours EVERY DAY leading up to that (barring injury), running their programs and building their stamina. And, while at the games, they are practicing and training every day. They don't take "rest" days.

 

[MacMadame]

I was adamant and stayed strong, especially against a monsoon of u people lol Karen included.

I definitely owe you peanut butter cups.

I don't think the Olympics is where anyone wants to debut a new jump anyway.

People want to be the first to land hard jumps at the Olympics all the time!

 

[peibeck]

People want to be the first to land hard jumps at the Olympics all the time!

There's a big difference between being the first to land a difficult jump at the Olympics first and debuting that jump there.

 

[Allskate]

It confuses me that everyone is concerned about athletes getting "rest" before their events.

Olympic skaters are in peak physical condition when at the Games, train for hours EVERY DAY leading up to that (barring injury), running their programs and building their stamina. And, while at the games, they are parcticing and training every day. They don't take "rest" days.

They actually do have rest days while at the Olympics. Some of the skaters already have posted about them. Plus, they taper and don't train as hard just before they compete. I was just watching the video of Ilia's practice. He marked his jumps during his runthrough.

Plus, the excitement and stress of competition is much more exhausting. And then there's doping and press.

Ilia, C&B, and Amber (and maybe Andrew?) skipped the Opening Ceremony, which mostly involves standing around and sitting. They are saving their energy for the skating they have coming up.

If the TE were after the individual events, I think Ilia definitely would do the TE long program and we wouldn't be hearing these reports related to the long.

 

[MacMadame]

There's a big difference between being the first to land a difficult jump at the Olympics first and debuting that jump there.

He debuted it at the GPF.

 

[Allskate]

Well squirrel friends I think my prediction from the very very beginning was pretty much spot on. I said Ilia will do both and they’re splitting the women.

If C&B are doing both segments, Amber can do the TE long program regardless of what Ilia does.

I don't think the situation with the long program is settled yet. I hope Ilia decides that he wants to do it, but I didn't see Andrew Torgachev at the opening ceremony. Did anyone else see him?

 

[zigzig]

Considering goe boost on base value, do you get more points doing a 4a+3t, 3a and then 4lz in the bonus or doing a 4a, 3a and 4lz+3t in the bonus?

 

[DaveRocks]

Haven't waded through this entire thread, but in case it hasn't been posted yet, Madi and Evan are planning on doing the FD today.

 

[tony]

Haven't waded through this entire thread, but in case it hasn't been posted yet, Madi and Evan are planning on doing the FD today.

Should be:

Chock/Bates
Yoshida/Morita
Guignard/Fabbri
Davis/Smolkin

And either Lopareva/Brissaud or Lajoie/Lagha

 

[Karen-W]

Haven't waded through this entire thread, but in case it hasn't been posted yet, Madi and Evan are planning on doing the FD today.

Yup, that was discussed mid-week.

 

[LilJen]

Brian Boitano thinks that Ilia should not do both TE SP and FS.

Will Ilia Malinin skate both parts of Olympics team event? What we know

Ilia Malinin and his coaches would prefer he skate just the short program in the team event to preserve his body for the men's individual event.

www.usatoday.com

Boitano has forgotten that Andrew is OLDER than Ilia… methinks he is gunning for Max to do the LP

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I love Max, but he would not be my choice of the two.

 

[Karen-W]

Boitano has forgotten that Andrew is OLDER than Ilia… methinks he is gunning for Max to do the LP

Well, it's not as if Max is younger than Ilia... Both Torgy & Max are a few years older than Ilia, so Brian's reasoning is absurd.

 

[Firedancer]

If C&B are doing both segments, Amber can do the TE long program regardless of what Ilia does.

I don't think the situation with the long program is settled yet. I hope Ilia decides that he wants to do it, but I didn't see Andrew Torgachev at the opening ceremony. Did anyone else see him?

Andrew did not go to the opening ceremony:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2020105998497628502

 

[CassAgain]

From a Team USA perspective, knowing that FB/C will probably not skate the free dance, would it not be better for France to qualify over Canada to put Les Kovs in the final over Lia and Trennnnt?

 

[ilovesalchows]

Agree with CassAgain about France. Also probably better for Italy in dance. Although the manning if Torgy skates is hard to predict. Adam has such high potential if he is anything close to clean.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Right, if Ilia skates, the men don’t matter much. If he doesn’t, it’s a bit hard to say. Neither of our other men will beat Adam at his best. Torgy could lose to Gogo at his best and I think Max would for sure. If anyone melts down, all bets are off.

 

[Karen-W]

I'll say this about Ilia... He certainly knows how to get tongues wagging about him.

From Jackie Wong this morning:

Practice notes
Malinin: 3S, 3T, 3Lo, 3F, 3Lz3T, 2A, 3A(step), 3A, 3F, 4F(step), 4F, runthru (marked F, 3A, 4Lz3T), 4F, 4Lz3T, 4F(step), 4F, 3A, 3A

https://x.com/rockerskating/status/2020132953192296924

 

[Marta24]

So, LaLa are doing the FD if Canada advances to the top 5. Bad strategy from team GP. They need to somehow change the perception that they are being dumped and the FD in the team event would have been their last chance to do that.

 

[Private Citizen]

So, LaLa are doing the FD if Canada advances to the top 5. Bad strategy from team GP. They need to somehow change the perception that they are being dumped and the FD in the team event would have been their last chance to do that.

OTOH I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost to Guignard and Fabbri and deepened the perception of dumpage. It’s sad to see, but I do think their skills (along with G&F’s) have atrophied, and their coaching / programs haven’t helped. (I like G&F’s free dance better.) I suspect they may be fighting for fifth rather than bronze.

I’m looking forward to (hopefully) seeing L&L and hope they do well. Skate Canada bet on the wrong horse this quad. I think L&L would be fighting for bronze if they were Canada’s number one.

 

[Allskate]

methinks he is gunning for Max to do the LP

I think Brennan would love for Max to do the LP. I don't think Brian cares who does the LP as long as it isn't Ilia. Brian competed at a time when the TE didn't exist, and I doubt he values it nearly as much as the individual men's. He's probably just imagining the impact it would have had on him to do the TE FS 48 hours before the individual event.

I love Max, but he would not be my choice of the two.

Yeah, Torgy definitely has a higher ceiling. Plus, IMO, Torgy has earned it over Max.

Torgy has crashed and burned at Worlds, but Max has never even been to Worlds and it's not like he's been doing clean LPs with quads at minor events. I can't imagine his first major international competition being the final segment of the TE with the gold medal on the line. It's unfortunate that they are the last two skaters in Milan that USFS would want to put in, but they may have no other choice.

 

[Allskate]

I'll say this about Ilia... He certainly knows how to get tongues wagging about him.

Yes, he likes to keep the bros on their toes. He often does this.

 

[BaileyCatts]

They really need to restructure the points system of this Team Event and make the FS count for more points because the way I'm doing the math (and going on assumptions of placements and skaters), there is no way USA still does not win if Ilia does the FS, even if JPN wins Womens and Pairs (and that one is not a given).

But I'm still all in for TEAM JAPAN for the win!!!!

 

[Karen-W]

They really need to restructure the points system of this Team Event and make the FS count for more points because the way I'm doing the math (and going on assumptions of placements), there is no way USA still does not win if Ilia does the FS, even if JPN wins Womens and Pairs (and that one is not a given).

But I'm still all in for TEAM JAPAN for the win!!!!

We've been over this in past Olympic cycles and I'm not sure there's any different way to restructure the points that would change the outcome for the medals. I've played around with various different methods suggested by others and almost always, the medals shake out the way they have in actuality.