2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Karen-W]

I think if Ilia feels confident he can land the 4a+3t in the TE SP then he should do it. It's never going to happen if he never tries it and he had already tried it once this season. It didn't work out at the GPF but neither did the 6-quqd layout there at the GPF the first time he tried it and it was much better the next time he went for it.

Having said that, I'd rather he not go for it tomorrow or Tuesday in the individual SP. It's not worth it, from a points perspective, I don't think. He loses the 10% bonus for the combo in the 2nd half of the program, plus the extra GOE he almost always racks up with that gorgeous 4F he starts off with, and I don't think the upside of being the first to land a 4A+3T in the SP is there, especially if it winds up being the slightest bit messy or UR.

 

[kwanfan1818]

He's not leaving an awful lot for his next two Olympics .

On the other hand, there may be another man or two or three who also has a 4A/3T in 2030, and that man will be seeded lower and will skate before him, and unless he attempts it in the next week, he may not be the first. If he wants to be the first, 2026 is probably his best chance.

 

[Allskate]

Having said that, I'd rather he not go for it tomorrow or Tuesday in the individual SP. It's not worth it, from a points perspective, I don't think.

I don't think he'd be doing it for the points. Not points for his own score, and definitely not points for the team score. I think he just wants to land the quad axel at the Olympics. But, I think it makes much more sense for him to do it in the long program and to decide whether to do it in the TE based on where things stand at the time.

Kagiyama has said that he is going for the quad flip at the Olympics, but I suspect he will not be attempting that in the TE SP. And I think Ilia would still beat him in the short even if he did.

 

[Vagabond]

Do they have assigned levels for quints yet?

I don't think the Olympics is where anyone wants to debut a new jump anyway.

Yes, up to the quintuple lutz.

https://isu-d8g8b4b7ece7aphs.a03.azurefd.net/isudamcontainer/CMS/Corporate-Site/Governance/Transparency/ISU-Communications/2707-ISU-SOV-SinglesPairs-2025-26-25-05-01-1747377995-9986.pdf

Quint God will reveal himself soon enough.

 

[peibeck]

Yes, up to the quintuple luLutz.

All quintuples with a base value of 14? That seems like they aren't really expecting any.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

It doesn’t make him a poor sport. He’s worked hard this Olympic cycle and wearing himself out before he even gets to the individual event. The schedule sucks for the men and the dancers and no one should feel guilty if there are other athletes available to skate the free.

Except that’s not what anyone is talking about.

 

[skateboy]

It confuses me that everyone is concerned about athletes getting "rest" before their events.

Olympic skaters are in peak physical condition when at the Games, train for hours EVERY DAY leading up to that (barring injury), running their programs and building their stamina. And, while at the games, they are parcticing and training every day. They don't take "rest" days.

 

[MacMadame]

I was adamant and stayed strong, especially against a monsoon of u people lol Karen included.

I definitely owe you peanut butter cups.

I don't think the Olympics is where anyone wants to debut a new jump anyway.

People want to be the first to land hard jumps at the Olympics all the time!

 

[peibeck]

People want to be the first to land hard jumps at the Olympics all the time!

There's a big difference between being the first to land a difficult jump at the Olympics first and debuting that jump there.

 

[Allskate]

It confuses me that everyone is concerned about athletes getting "rest" before their events.

Olympic skaters are in peak physical condition when at the Games, train for hours EVERY DAY leading up to that (barring injury), running their programs and building their stamina. And, while at the games, they are parcticing and training every day. They don't take "rest" days.

They actually do have rest days while at the Olympics. Some of the skaters already have posted about them. Plus, they taper and don't train as hard just before they compete. I was just watching the video of Ilia's practice. He marked his jumps during his runthrough.

Plus, the excitement and stress of competition is much more exhausting. And then there's doping and press.

Ilia, C&B, and Amber (and maybe Andrew?) skipped the Opening Ceremony, which mostly involves standing around and sitting. They are saving their energy for the skating they have coming up.

If the TE were after the individual events, I think Ilia definitely would do the TE long program and we wouldn't be hearing these reports related to the long.

 

[MacMadame]

There's a big difference between being the first to land a difficult jump at the Olympics first and debuting that jump there.

He debuted it at the GPF.

 

[Allskate]

Well squirrel friends I think my prediction from the very very beginning was pretty much spot on. I said Ilia will do both and they’re splitting the women.

If C&B are doing both segments, Amber can do the TE long program regardless of what Ilia does.

I don't think the situation with the long program is settled yet. I hope Ilia decides that he wants to do it, but I didn't see Andrew Torgachev at the opening ceremony. Did anyone else see him?