2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[screech]

If I'm Skate Canada, I split both events where they can - S/D would do the short in pairs, P/M the free. And for dance have G/P do the rhythm, L/L the free.

For the US, it's definitely complicated as there's justification for splitting ladies, men and dance, but also justification for having just one do the whole thing:

• Unless something incredibly crazy happens, Ilia is almost guaranteed individual gold, so it makes sense not to tire him out with the TE, especially with the men's event starting just 2 days after the TE. Not sure who would do the FP though, as either would likely place 4-5 in the TE FP. But with Japan likely placing 5th in dance, whatever result the second choice man gets would be cancelled out.
• C/B could do both programs, however dance is the first individual event, so they may not want to overdo it. And with Z/K success this year, splitting the TE wouldn't be too crazy, and would probably still have US within the top 2-3 in whatever segment they do.
• Ladies is the hardest one to decide IMO as there are 3 solid choices. Amber has the highest ceiling for the SP with the 3A, so it makes sense to use her there. And while I don't want Alysa to miss out on the TE again, I might even suggest Isabeau for the FP, because she's a bit less likely to win an individual medal, but would still probably place top 2 in the TE. But then again, as she's less likely to win an individual medal (though I wouldn't be surprised if she does), maybe Isabeau could do both while Alysa and Amber solely focus on the individual?

 

[Karen-W]

If I'm Skate Canada, I split both events where they can - S/D would do the short in pairs, P/M the free. And for dance have G/P do the rhythm, L/L the free.

For the US, it's definitely complicated as there's justification for splitting ladies, men and dance, but also justification for having just one do the whole thing:

• Unless something incredibly crazy happens, Ilia is almost guaranteed individual gold, so it makes sense not to tire him out with the TE, especially with the men's event starting just 2 days after the TE. Not sure who would do the FP though, as either would likely place 4-5 in the TE FP. But with Japan likely placing 5th in dance, whatever result the second choice man gets would be cancelled out.
• C/B could do both programs, however dance is the first individual event, so they may not want to overdo it. And with Z/K success this year, splitting the TE wouldn't be too crazy, and would probably still have US within the top 2-3 in whatever segment they do.
• Ladies is the hardest one to decide IMO as there are 3 solid choices. Amber has the highest ceiling for the SP with the 3A, so it makes sense to use her there. And while I don't want Alysa to miss out on the TE again, I might even suggest Isabeau for the FP, because she's a bit less likely to win an individual medal, but would still probably place top 2 in the TE. But then again, as she's less likely to win an individual medal (though I wouldn't be surprised if she does), maybe Isabeau could do both while Alysa and Amber solely focus on the individual?

Can I just point out that Alysa actually has the HIGHEST Season's Best for the SP this season of the US women? She also has the highest Season's Best for the FS of the US women - Isabeau is about 7 points behind Alysa & 5 points behind Amber.

https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtswsp.htm

It's not by much but Amber has gone clean with her SP on the GP and her fans on X were noting, during Finlandia, that her PCS is not as high as the Japanese women or Alysa. It's been a source of growing concern, that she isn't getting the same respect from international panels as the other four who have higher SBs.

Isabeau isn't too far behind either of them for the SP season's best, but Jia Shin did beat her in the SP at Nebelhorn and one has to imagine Korea will use her for the TE SP which would leave the US vulnerable to potentially coming in 3rd in that segment if they use Isabeau instead of Amber or Alysa. And in the FS, there's not much distance between Isabeau and Gubanova on the SB list - only about 1 point, which again leaves the US vulnerable to coming in 3rd in that segment.

Much as I like Isabeau and would like to see her medal, using her in the TE isn't the best strategy for the USFS if defending the gold is a priority - both Amber & Alysa have a cushion ahead of the rest of the field apart from whichever Japanese women are used in the TE and, theoretically, would come in 2nd at worst in both segments.

Also - copying these handy links to the SP/RD and FS/FD Season's Best scores in the old table format.

Season's Best – SP/RD
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtsmsp.htm
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtswsp.htm
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtspsp.htm
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtsdrd.htm

Season's Best – FS/FD
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtsmfs.htm
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtswfs.htm
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtspfs.htm
https://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2025-26/sbtsdfd.htm

 

[Vagabond]

It's not by much but Amber has gone clean with her SP on the GP and her fans on X were noting, during Finlandia, that her PCS is not as high as the Japanese women or Alysa. It's been a source of growing concern, that she isn't getting the same respect from international panels as the other four who have higher SBs.

Glenn's PCS should, at least generally, be behind that of Nakai, Chiba, Sakamoto, and Liu. It should be behind Levito's too.

 

[Allskate]

It's not by much but Amber has gone clean with her SP on the GP and her fans on X were noting, during Finlandia, that her PCS is not as high as the Japanese women or Alysa. It's been a source of growing concern, that she isn't getting the same respect from international panels as the other four who have higher SBs.

Amber has talked about working on her presentation and it clearly showed at Nationals, where I think she delivered her best short program ever and beat Alysa. If the women were splitting, I actually would have Amber do the short program where the triple axel is a larger percentage of the score.

I love Isabeau and she did beat Alysa in the free at Nationals, but not by a lot and that was with the new GaGa program. I'm not a big fan of Macarthur Park, but the audiences and judges seem to like it. Isabeau handles her nerves very well. Out of the three, she had the most on the line at Nationals and really delivered. But, Alysa handles her nerves just as well or better. More importantly, she has the benefit of the being the World Champion and the judges have been rewarding her for it this season. IMO, Alysa is the clear choice for the team event. (If Ilia had agreed to do both portions, I think the team would have been announced. My guess is that TPTB are trying to work something out with him. Maybe tell him that they are fine with him attempting a quad axel and/or watering down his long program. Get a sponsor deal for him for the TE free program broadcast. Offer him their first born. Anything.)

I do feel bad for Isabeau. She definitely has done more to earn a spot in the TE than a number of the skaters who will get to compete and bring home a medal. But, the selection has to be done based on the best chances for a medal, even if it means handing an Olympic medal to skaters who have never come close to medaling at Worlds and who are not likely to score great in the TE.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Glenn's PCS should, at least generally, be behind that of Nakai, Chiba, Sakamoto, and Liu. It should be behind Levito's too.

Lol I know she’s such a slow skater, terrible edges, and one of the worst lutzes, the way she has no emotions on her sleeve and has no musicality, can’t express her music at all I think I might even put her behind Ariadna Espada.

 

[Private Citizen]

Glenn's PCS should, at least generally, be behind that of Nakai, Chiba, Sakamoto, and Liu. It should be behind Levito's too.

I largely agree with you.

I will say that Glenn does a better job with PCS in short programs (generally, and especially this year) than in free skates.

The free skates seem to be much slower and more tentative as she focuses on the jumps. She also has a tendency to pick dirge-like music.

I'd usually say her PCS deserve to be 0.5 (skills) to 1.0 points (composition, presentation) lower in the free skate. I'd score her comparably to Levito in the SP but lower than Levito, potentially by a lot, in the free skate.

 

[eurodance2001]

Torgashev has proven he is good for 1-2 good skates a year.. He just did them.. so who knows what he will come up with now... Ilia should be doing both programs in the team event.. Maxim made it due to the uproar it would've caused had they not named him but had Jason skated decently, he would've been named and Max would've missed out.. thats just a fact

 

[Allskate]

Torgashev has proven he is good for 1-2 good skates a year.. He just did them.. so who knows what he will come up with now..

I hate to think about how he would skate in a free program when the TE medal is on the line in the final moments of the competition. Maybe the team members would help him and he would be in a better space? But, I think that is unlikely. But, he'll get an Olympic medal.

I will say that Glenn does a better job with PCS in short programs (generally, and especially this year) than in free skates.

The free skates seem to be much slower and more tentative as she focuses on the jumps.

She talked about this at the Nationals press conferences. She was happy with her performance quality in the short program. She said her priorities now are fixing the setup for the loop and performing more in the long program. Even after the jumps were done, the performance wasn't as good in the long as in the short.

I think Isabeau was the one with the strongest "performance" of the music at Nationals. And, for some reason, this season she is skating with a lot more sureness and ease. But, as I have said, I don't think she is the right pick for the TE.

 

[barbk]

If men get split and dance gets split, I'd like to see Alysa do the team event. She seems the least nervy of the competitors on the big stage.

If women get split, I'd go with Alysa for the short and Amber for the long.

 

[Private Citizen]

I think Isabeau was the one with the strongest "performance" of the music at Nationals. And, for some reason, this season she is skating with a lot more sureness and ease. But, as I have said, I don't think she is the right pick for the TE.

I agree. Any other country in the world -- including Japan -- would probably be using Levito in the team event, but there's no justification over Glenn and Liu. Of the two, I'd go with Liu who is a more solid competitor and a World Champion.

 

[PRlady]

If Levito had perfect toe jumps and/or a 3A or harder combination, she’d be on par with the other two technically. She is still so young! I can see her going for higher tech in the next quad because she isn’t just an elegant princess, she has competitive grit aplenty. I was reminded of how much I liked her this Nats, she skated beautifully.

 

[Wyliefan]

had Jason skated decently, he would've been named and Max would've missed out.. thats just a fact

Well, obviously. But that didn't happen, so here we are.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Maxim made it due to the uproar it would've caused had they not named him but had Jason skated decently, he would've been named and Max would've missed out.. thats just a fact

Sure, and if my aunt were a man, she’d be my uncle.

I don’t know that I understand the point of saying things would have been different if things had been different. Sure, but so what?

Also, I don’t think Max was named over Jason because of the possibility of popular outcry. As you just noted, Jason skated disastrously and came off of a not great season. He just didn’t do enough.

 

[Allskate]

She is still so young! I can see her going for higher tech in the next quad because she isn’t just an elegant princess, she has competitive grit aplenty.

I think she will work on the technique for her 3/3 toe combinations and maybe bring back the triple lutz/triple loop. At this point, the triple toe technique seems to be the biggest problem. I think she has decided it just wasn't worth the risk of doing the lutz/loop in an Olympic season. Heading into the season, her spot wasn't nearly as secure as Alysa's.

She has said that she is excited for after the Olympics because she wants to work on increasing her jump difficulty. She was afraid to risk injuring herself this season. I think the best bet is a triple axel. She has increased the height in her axel. I don't know if she really can do it, but she probably has a better shot at that than a quad toe at this point. She might also need to take out some of the in between steps and transitions to be able to up her jumping score.

 

[MacMadame]

Torgashev has proven he is good for 1-2 good skates a year.. He just did them.. so who knows what he will come up with now... Ilia should be doing both programs in the team event.. Maxim made it due to the uproar it would've caused had they not named him but had Jason skated decently, he would've been named and Max would've missed out.. thats just a fact

It's not a fact by definition.

 

[DreamSkates]

Ilia has stated that he wants to do just the SP for the team event. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t be persuaded to also do the LP, but it’s not his preference.

Smart. Save his energy for a 7 quad one time long program for individual gold.

 

[DreamSkates]

It's not a fact by definition.

Well sadly for Jason he didn't skate well. Who knows what happened. He seemed shaken afterward. But Torgashev and Max have a new level of confidence. That could serve them well.

 

[bwayrose7]

I recognize that this is is largely my personal biases speaking and not backed by just what's on the ice, but if Ilia isn't doing the FS, I'd use Max over Torgs. Purely because the idea of the one Olympian who has publicly displayed poor sportsmanship (and hasn't really apologized aside from that "I was in a bad place" excuse) getting a likely medal for the team event just grinds my gears. I think both men would probably place similarly in the segment, anyway.

 

[Allskate]

But Torgashev and Max have a new level of confidence. That could serve them well.

How do we know that they have a new level of confidence? Max had problems with three or four jumping passes during Nationals. He finished behind Jacob in the free skate. He seemed almost apologetic at the end of his long program when he said he tried his best. He's obviously very happy to be going to the Olympics, but I don't see how this was the kind of skating that would really boost his confidence for the TE free skate. Torgy usually has his best performance at Nationals, and it obviously hasn't carried over to Worlds. Now, one of them will be the very last skater in the TE. I am really hoping that they wil do better at the Olympics. However, I tend to doubt that unless their TE free program turns out just to be an exhibition because the U.S. has pretty much clinched the gold by that time. There really weren't great choices for the non-Ilia mens spots on the team.

I recognize that this is is largely my personal biases speaking and not backed by just what's on the ice, but if Ilia isn't doing the FS, I'd use Max over Torgs. Purely because the idea of the one Olympian who has publicly displayed poor sportsmanship (and hasn't really apologized aside from that "I was in a bad place" excuse) getting a likely medal for the team event just grinds my gears. I think both men would probably place similarly in the segment, anyway.

I feel the same way about Torgy's comments, but I don't think that's a valid reason not to have Torgy skate the long program. Are we going to investigate the conduct and character of every figure skater and make team selections accordingly? Should USFS risk a team gold based on this and potentially screw over other members of the team who really will have earned their spots in the TE with their skating over the past year and are likely to contribute significantly to the team score? Max has never even qualified for Worlds and you think he should be put him in the TE? I think the decisions should be based on the skating, knowing full well that there are nicer and better skaters who won't get to compete or get an Olympic team medal. If Max is put in the TE, it won't be based on his skating record. And Torgy does have a higher scoring potential than Max does.

 

[bwayrose7]

I feel the same way about Torgy's comments, but I don't think that's a valid reason not to have Torgy skate the long program. Are we going to investigate the conduct and character of every figure skater and make team selections accordingly? Should USFS risk a team gold based on this and potentially screw over other members of the team who really will have earned their spots in the TE with their skating over the past year and are likely to contribute significantly to the team score? Max has never even qualified for Worlds and you think he should be put him in the TE? I think the decisions should be based on the skating, knowing full well that there are nicer and better skaters who won't get to compete or get an Olympic team medal. If Max is put in the TE, it won't be based on his skating record. And Torgy does have a higher scoring potential than Max does.

I 100% agree that Torgs has a higher scoring ceiling right now. What I doubt at the moment is that the choice of non-Ilia US man will make a difference in terms of placement for the FS segment. It would take some menning for either of them to place above the men from JPN, GEO, ITA, FRA, or CAN; I'm assuming either choice would place last in the FS anyway, unless

Again, I absolutely acknowledge that my feelings on this are clouded by my distaste for Torgy's comments versus the "team" spirit and I do not expect anyone to take those very biased opinions seriously

 

[Allskate]

It would take some menning for either of them to place above the men from JPN, GEO, ITA, FRA, or CAN; I'm assuming either choice would place last in the FS anyway, unless

Does anyone really expect that there won't be some menning?