2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Vagabond]

If Brown is such a weak link, why is he such a lock for the team? I thought the whole point of him being a lock was that he was needed for the TE.

I think the two concepts of "lock for the team" and "needed for the Team Event" need to be uncoupled.

Brown's been a "lock" because he's the only American man other Malinin who has, up to now, seemed assured of making the cut in the Men's event and likely to make the top ten. He's earned scores of 245+ in international competition much more often than all the American men other than Malinin combined. It's an added plus that even without any quadruple jumps, he can still score well in the Free Skating. (He was fourth in it at Worlds last season, which suggests that he could finish in the top two three in the Team Event Men's Free Skating.)

All of the above assumes a lot of things, including that he fully rotates and lands his triple axels. If he doesn't, he might not even finish in the top three at Nationals, at which point FSU will explode.

 

[Karen-W]

I think the two concepts of "lock for the team" and "needed for the Team Event" need to be uncoupled.

Brown's been a "lock" because he's the only American man other Malinin who has, up to now, seemed assured of making the cut in the Men's event and likely to make the top ten. He's earned scores of 245+ in international competition much more often than all the American men other than Malinin combined. It's an added plus that even without any quadruple jumps, he can still score well in the Free Skating. (He was fourth in it at Worlds last season, which suggests that he could finish in the top two three in the Team Event Men's Free Skating.)

All of the above assumes a lot of things, including that he fully rotates and lands his triple axels. If he doesn't, he might not even finish in the top three at Nationals, at which point FSU will explode.

I think that's a fair assessment of the situation with Jason. Provided his 3A is in good shape, yes, he should be the 2nd man for the Team Event; but if it's not, then it might make more sense to go with the 3rd man on the team. I haven't really sat down and looked at the FS scores for the other US men who might make the team but it's entirely possible that someone else might very well have a higher average FS score over the course of the season.

 

[tony]

This is another 2018 situation really. Where Adam Rippon ‘had’ to be in the team event yet was 4th out of the 5 men (corrected: 3rd) there.

Any US man not named Malinin in the LP will face off against a Japanese skater— probably Sato at this point— potentially Grassl doing both segments, Egadze, and either Aymoz/Fa or whoever Canada sends if they were to get in.

If all of those skaters are ‘on’, even Jason may be looking at 5th.. let alone anyone else.

 

[Sylvia]

This is another 2018 situation really. Where Adam Rippon ‘had’ to be in the team event yet was 4th out of the 5 men there.

Ahem. 3rd of 5th in the FS and less than a point from Kolyada in 2nd: https://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/SEG010.HTM

 

[tony]

Ahem. 3rd of 5th in the FS and less than a point from Kolyada in 2nd: https://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/SEG010.HTM

I shall be shamed for ruining Adam's legacy.

ETA- I had totally forgot about Japan putting Tanaka in the free skate. And Rizzo was a brand new senior at that point. This season, it's looking like there will be big guns in the free skate with the exception of Canada if they make it in.

 

[tony]

Ahem. 3rd of 5th in the FS and less than a point from Patrick Chan in 2nd: https://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/SEG010.HTM

Ahem.

 

[Sylvia]

I always own my mistakes/typos. I edited my post within a few seconds

In any case, Adam & then Mirai (3A ) both gave Team USA a much-needed boost on Day 3 of the Team Event.

ETA from the FSU Archives:

Tony Wheeler: Rippon most likely just shut the door on Russia’s gold medal quest and made it much more difficult for Italy to catch the USA.
...
caseyedwards: meaningless quadless journeyman!

 

[tony]

Of course he did by helping add more points to the free skate. But I remember the discussion around the choices at the time (and his inclusion on the Olympic team) were that he had to be in the team event. That wasn't something said by Auxier or whoever was in charge at the time, but rather in some of the discussion here. In fact, I think Auxier said a blanket statement about choosing people who were 'medal contenders' -- which by 2018 he was not but it's besides the point.

Tanaka being in the free skate obviously helped the cause a bit, as Hanyu didn't skate either segment and Uno stuck to the SP.

In 2026, Egadze is doing the free skate as long as Georgia gets in, and they probably will. Sato will probably do the free skate for Japan (I can't see a 2018 send the 3rd skate because it doesn't matter much situation especially as medal favorites), Italy will choose either Grassl or whoever of Rizzo/Memola goes but Grassl can also say he just wants to do it all with the way he's the clear #1 now. That leaves most likely Adam Siao or Kevin Aymoz doing the free skate or .. Sadovsky or Gogolev? from Canada depending who the other team is that gets in.

I'm a head Jason Brown cheerleader here and fully think he deserves an Olympic spot from his BOW and the lack of anyone else having it, but with that field I don't necessarily feel like he's a lock for the team event especially before we even see how Nationals plays out.

 

[Vagabond]

Sadovsky wuzrobbed of Olympic bronze last time and will gain vindication in Milan!

 

[PRlady]

With the state of both men and women in Canada, not this year. Even pairs ain’t what what we might have predicted three years ago, although the Germans and Aussies won’t be a factor in the TE.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

We get down these strange paths here. Somewhere else I reminded our group that a few weeks ago Kaori was thought perhaps to be easily beatable - with no 3A. Now I wonder who CAN beat her.

Here we`re fixated on Jason`s weaky axel. But a lot of top skaters botch the axel - occasionally. Jason will still have all the other stuff he does to perfection plus that PCS. Yeah, Jason might step out of a 3A during the team event , but I doubt it. Look how many times he rose to the occasion.

 

[Braulio]

at first I was very hesitant of the Team Event and now I am waiting for it

 

[Evgeniafan]

at first I was very hesitant of the Team Event and now I am waiting for it

Who should France put in the short program.. Adam or Kevin? I think it should be Kevin.

 

[Braulio]

Who should France put in the short program.. Adam or Kevin? I think it should be Kevin.

Given his actual condition with his injured ankle I think Kevin will skip the team event and focus in the individual event

 

[Karen-W]

We get down these strange paths here. Somewhere else I reminded our group that a few weeks ago Kaori was thought perhaps to be easily beatable - with no 3A. Now I wonder who CAN beat her.

Here we`re fixated on Jason`s weaky axel. But a lot of top skaters botch the axel - occasionally. Jason will still have all the other stuff he does to perfection plus that PCS. Yeah, Jason might step out of a 3A during the team event , but I doubt it. Look how many times he rose to the occasion.

I think the issue with Jason is not the 3A alone - he's having trouble with his combo too and while his PCS is still best in the field, the rest of the guys, when on, have too much tech content for Jason as he was skating during the fall to hope to beat any of them.

Things are still slow for me at work, since I'm still training, so I went through this fall's FS scores of the potential entrants in the TE Men's TE FS & figured out their average score.

CAN -
Gogolev - 161.02
Sadovsky - 159.86

FRA -
Siao Him Fa - 171.10
Aymoz - 155.76

GEO -
Egadze - 169.13

ITA -
Grassl - 170.60
Memola - 156.20
Rizzo - 148.63

JPN -
Sato - 185.78
Miura - 140.79 (only included him because he's been named to the Olympic team)

USA -
Brown - 161.91
Hiwatashi - 155.89
Naumov - 150.15
Torgashev - 150.10

Where Brown places is, I believe, really going to come down to which skater is used in the TE FS. Sato is the only lock, IMO, and he should easily win against the rest of the field. Brown is a good 7-9 points behind Siao Him Fa, Egadze & Grassl; but if FRA & ITA split the TE duties for their men, then Brown is likely to come out ahead of Aymoz & Memola/Grassl. CAN is a different matter - Gogolev was scoring solidly around 164 with the exception of SCI, which dropped his average, so Jason will need to skate better than he did all fall in order to beat Gogolev; but he probably can beat Sadovsky even with his currently sketchy 3A.

I can't see any reason to put another US man in the TE over Brown except maybe Hiwatashi, but I'd probably only consider it if Tomoki beat Jason at Nats and Jason's 3A was still looking as questionable as it did in the fall.

So, realistically, in his current tech state, Brown is maybe 3rd at best in the TE FS, but that's only if FRA & ITA split their men; but there's just as good of a possibility that he finishes dead last in the TE FS, especially if CAN makes it in over FRA & Gogolev earns the Olympic spot.

 

[MacMadame]

If he doesn't, he might not even finish in the top three at Nationals, at which point FSU will explode.

Not just FSU. I think USFS will be in a tizzy too!

I'm a head Jason Brown cheerleader here and fully think he deserves an Olympic spot from his BOW and the lack of anyone else having it, but with that field I don't necessarily feel like he's a lock for the team event especially before we even see how Nationals plays out.

Nationals is key, I think. Last year, Jason's Fall was pretty bad and people were talking about how his jumps were GONE! Then he skated much better at Worlds, with trouble with the jumps in the SP, sure, but coming in 4th in the FS.

Can he do it again this year? His '25 Fall wasn't as bad as his '24 Fall. The other US Men (except Ilyia) haven't been setting the world on fire either. I guess we'll see.

 

[tangerine dream]

Is it too late to call Vincent Zhou and see what his plans for February are?

 

[Private Citizen]

Why not have Malinin skate both programs and "take it easy" in the free skate? He has a 30+ point advantage. He could skip 2-3 quads and be fine. Treat it as a warmup.

 

[skatingguy]

Why not have Malinin skate both programs and "take it easy" in the free skate? He has a 30+ point advantage. He could skip 2-3 quads and be fine. Treat it as a warmup.

The Team Event - Men's Freeskate - is two days before the Men's Short Program - it's a tight turnaround for whoever competes in that segment.