2019-20 Canadian ladies news and updates

[haribobo]

For fun, ranking SP scores from 4CC 2018 vs. 2019 vs. 2020...

Alaine Chartrand 2018 59.86
Alicia Pineault 2020 57.09
Larkyn Austman 2019 54.99
Veronik Mallet 2019 54.97
Alicia Pineault 2018 51.53
Michelle Long 2018 49.77
Emily Bausback 2020 49.10
Alaine Chartrand 2019 45.89
Alison Schumacher 2020 42.55

 

[Marco]

So sad Emily missed out, and not only because of the popped loop, but also because she didn't achieve one single level 4 in her spins / steps.

I have no idea what next. I really like Pinault though.

 

[Habs]

I suspect Pineault punched her ticket to Montreal.

 

[Frau Muller]

Pinault is so polished and musical.

 

[fsfann]

Alicia would have qualified last year in 19th place (higher than Alaine did, in 23rd).

As far as it goes, based on the totality of evidence thus far, retaining two spots requires somebody to have a Hail Mary performance beyond anything they've done so far this season -- which, admittedly, Gabrielle actually did do last year. But she was in worse shape at 2020 nationals than she was at 2019 nationals (where she had one good program), there's no real reason to do that again just because we got lucky before, especially as the downside is so huge.

Gabrielle remains the Canadian lady with the highest scoring potential, and if we want to have two spots for the 2022 Olympics based on 2021 Worlds results, having her in best shape to perform well in 2021 is more important (and, it should go without saying, her overall mental health is more important than that in turn). All of those needs are better-served by letting her rest.

Maybe somebody will have the skate of their lives at Worlds and pull it out. More likely they won't, that's just reality.

Totally agree with this. I think most Cdns realize that we will only have 1 lady in 2021 at Worlds. If we end up with 2, that is going to be a huge shock to everyone!

 

[mag]

I fell terrible for Emily. Such a roller coaster ride. First thinkng she had the minimum, then having it change, then winning a national title, then 4CC’s. If anyone deserves a second chance to get the minimum or the choice to go to jr world’s, IMHO it is Emily.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I suspect Pineault punched her ticket to Montreal.

Me too. She’s getting better and better

 

[Erin]

If either Emily or Skate Canada decides that she should go to junior worlds and forget about senior minimums, I would send Schizas to Challenge Cup. Given that she scored 56 at Bavarian Open with a fall on the loop, she is probably the person with the best shot to make the free program at worlds.

 

[RoseRed]

If either Emily or Skate Canada decides that she should go to junior worlds and forget about senior minimums, I would send Schizas to Challenge Cup. Given that she scored 56 at Bavarian Open with a fall on the loop, she is probably the person with the best shot to make the free program at worlds.

I don't really have an opinion on who is most likely to make the FS, but you can't really compare a junior B score with ISU senior championship scores.

 

[Erin]

I don't really have an opinion on who is most likely to make the FS, but you can't really compare a junior B score with ISU senior championship scores.

Well I know that the scores are not completely comparable and it would be lower at an ISU championship, but I also think it still gives a general direction of how her skating is viewed by the judges. At a minimum, it’s easy to say that it’s not the meltdown we saw from Schumacher today, and it’s also a similar score to what we have seen from cleaner programs from both Bausback and Schumacher on the JGP and Challenger Series. I don’t think it’s a stretch to conclude that Schizas could have a higher SP ceiling than those two. Which at this point, if I were SC, my priority would be on ladies who can qualify to the free skate because I think it will be touch and go for any of the ladies to make the free.

 

[haribobo]

I hope Alicia does well tonight in the FS. She is quite good in that SP, you can see the potential there and much more than previous season where she sort of blended into the background. I have no strong opinions about the 2nd spot for now...

 

[Catherine M]

Decent skate for Alicia in the free to stay in the Top 10 at Four continents. She looked pleased in the K&C at the score.

I guess the world's team will be Alicia and Allison but would prefer Emily get another chance at min score.

 

[danafan]

I watched all three Canadians. I’m on team Schumacher but you could not deny Pineault after those two skates. New Canadian season best. I still think Bausback deserves another shot at the minimums and that Schizas deserves an ISU championship so who knows...

 

[Sedge]

If they wanted to guarantee that Emily got the minimums, perhaps she should have been sent to Bavarian Open instead of 4 Continents.
That said, Bavarian Open would not have been preparation for the pressure of a Senior Worlds, as 4 Continents may well have been.

 

[Maximillian]

Just have to say that Pineault's SP is one of my top five of the season, love it and she owns it. Also am I the only one that thinks Schumacher has scads more potential than Bausback and Schizas?

 

[fsfann]

Just have to say that Pineault's SP is one of my top five of the season, love it and she owns it. Also am I the only one that thinks Schumacher has scads more potential than Bausback and Schizas?

Agree with Pineault's SP. I didn't feel her LP at all though...wish she had something else for the Long...

I also agree re Schumacher. I wish they'd work on the artistry side and projecting/emoting with her... Her facial expressions are so "blah" and it really wouldn't take much to make an improvement on that front. But I agree, I definitely prefer her to Bausback. Re Schizas though, I think Schizas has a lot of potential and it will come...

Bausback needs to run away from McLeod before it's too late, like most of her other students.. lol.

 

[Colonel Green]

If we're comparing the three, Madeline has the most performance ability, but also the most marked technical limitation in that she doesn't do a Lutz at the moment; that really needs to be her main focus going forward.

Alison and Emily are somewhat similar in that they're got decent tech and iffy artistic quality -- in Alison's case, especially, she doesn't perform hardly at all, which makes the decision to have her perform to plaintive, mournful ballads all the more bizarre since that tends to just accentuate her lack of expression.

 

[haribobo]

4CC total score comparison, 2018-20

Alicia Pineault 2020 173
Alaine Chartrand 2018 172
Veronik Mallet 2019 170
Larkyn Austman 2019 165
Alicia Pineault 2018 152
Alison Schumacher 2020 150
Emily Bausback 2020 147
Michelle Long 2018 147
Alaine Chartrand 2019 147

 

[honey]

If we're comparing the three, Madeline has the most performance ability, but also the most marked technical limitation in that she doesn't do a Lutz at the moment; that really needs to be her main focus going forward.

Alison and Emily are somewhat similar in that they're got decent tech and iffy artistic quality -- in Alison's case, especially, she doesn't perform hardly at all, which makes the decision to have her perform to plaintive, mournful ballads all the more bizarre since that tends to just accentuate her lack of expression.

It’s interesting to compare the girls in the mix. Though Schizas lacks a lutz, Pineault also lacks a flip (these two have almost the same layout for the long). Schumacher doesn’t repeat two types of triples. All three end up attempting six triples. Bausback is the only one of them attempting a seven triple long.

I think Alicia really did her job and should get a spot for worlds. Of these four, I think she’s the most complete package. The judges respond pretty well to her as well.

Though it irks me that Schizas will likely be shut out of both junior and senior worlds now, I think Schumacher is the likely second choice. I think Alison has some nice qualities right now, primarily beautifully soft knees and a nice easy movement on the ice. But she’s prone to meltdowns and under rotations. She showed some nice grit coming back with a solid free at 4CC though, and combined with silver at nationals, it only seems reasonable that she’s the second choice.

All this is thrown out the window though if they give Bausback another chance at the minimums and she gets them. I would assume it would be Bausback + Pineault then. That would be a ton of competitions in a row for Emily and a lot of travel, so not exactly setting her up well for worlds if that’s what happens.

All around a kind of unclear situation, but in the end does it really matter? No combination of those four women would create a probably scenario where two spots are kept. I think SC is probable resigned to that and is looking onwards and upwards for next year.

 

[shutterbug]

Bausback and Schizas are on the entry list for Challenge Cup: https://www.schaatsen.nl/media/43496/entries-by-name-cc2020.pdf

 

[Colonel Green]

Bausback and Schizas are on the entry list for Challenge Cup: https://www.schaatsen.nl/media/43496/entries-by-name-cc2020.pdf

Okay, this muddies the waters even more.

 

[4rkidz]

Okay, this muddies the waters even more.

Skateoff to see who joins Alicia?

 

[Colonel Green]

Skateoff to see who joins Alicia?

What about Alison, in that case? She beat Emily at 4CC, in the end.

 

[TygerLily]

What about Alison, in that case? She beat Emily at 4CC, in the end.

I assume Alison is going to worlds regardless because she was the silver medallist and already has the world’s minimums.

I imagine that if Emily gets the world minimums, Emily and Alison will go to Worlds and Madeline will get to go to Junior Worlds with Kaiya.

If Emily misses the minimums, she’ll get to go to Junior Worlds (with Kaiya) and this is Madeline’s chance to be eligible to go to Senior Worlds.

If neither earns the senior minimums, I imagine Alicia’s the next choice.

 

[Colonel Green]

I assume Alison is going to worlds regardless because she was the silver medallist and already has the world’s minimums.

I imagine that if Emily gets the world minimums, Emily and Alison will go to Worlds and Madeline will get to go to Junior Worlds with Kaiya.

If Emily misses the minimums, she’ll get to go to Junior Worlds (with Kaiya) and this is Madeline’s chance to be eligible to go to Senior Worlds.

If neither earns the senior minimums, I imagine Alicia’s the next choice.

Alicia beat Alison and Emily by over twenty points at 4CC, and was the only one who might have made the free skate with her short program (and indeed, she also won the short program at nationals).

If anyone should be set to go, it’s her. Once you don’t name the team after nationals, there’s no real reason to prioritize nationals results.

 

[TygerLily]

Alicia beat Alison and Emily by over twenty points at 4CC, and was the only one who might have made the free skate with her short program (and indeed, she also won the short program at nationals).

If anyone should be set to go, it’s her. Once you don’t name the team after nationals, there’s no real reason to prioritize nationals results.

Good point. Yes, this is a muddle.

 

[tony]

Alicia has a tremendous quality to her skating and is lightyears ahead of Bausback in that sense (it's like when Leung was 'pushing' Rochette at Nationals a few times with her technical content). I love her posture and the little choreographic nuances. I know she's not terribly consistent, but she's a safe(r) bet in the short program and her free skate at 4CC was a big step up. I agree that she should, at this point, absolutely be on the world team regardless of what happened at Nationals.

I don't really have an opinion on the second skater.

 

[alchemy void]

I'd like to see:

Pineault + Schumaker at Senior Worlds
Bausback + Ruiter for Junior Worlds

I like Bausback more than most here, but 4CC showed she's not super competitive at the senior level yet. Going to Challenge Cup, achieving minimums, and then going to Worlds seems excessive.

Pineault clearly earned a place to Worlds with those 4CC performances. No question she's Canada's best overall lady right now. Schumaker gets the second spot somewhat by default as none of the other contenders are currently eligible for senior Worlds. However, she has been the most consistent of all these ladies all season and does deserve the spot.

Bausback and Ruiter then clearly go to Junior Worlds.

I do really like Schizas and it's disappointing she doesn't get a chance to go to either event. However, all she needed was was to not do four single axels in her nationals LP to grab silver, and get a chance to go to Worlds. She has lots of potential (nice basics!) but her programs are the simplest among these other ladies in terms of choreography and transitions. Good for her to get another international event in Challenge Cup, and I'm excited to see what she can do on the JGP next season.

 

[Coco]

This is like an LSAT problem.

 

[bracketcounterrocker]

According to the entries, Bausback and Ruiter are going to Junior Worlds with both Schizas and Schumacher as substitutes.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat03109438.htm

I suppose this leaves the option of subbing Schizas in for Bausback for Junior Worlds if Bausback gets her senior mins at Challenge Cup. I would assume though that would put Schumacher's Senior Worlds spot in danger, not Pineault's (considering 4CC results).