Are the OGMs in the 2022 Olympics the most predictable ever?

[VGThuy]

Except for the dance event, the dance event was the most interesting and jaw-dropping

Yeah but it had to happen to the teams that could have rocked the apple cart and sneaked in for a medal. All the heavy faves for medals and the ones with the most politicking power all stood up in the OD. Then they carefully crawled their ways through the FD to the medal stand where they collected their pre-engraved medals.

 

[caseyedwards]

I had to rewatch D/L at Olympics and at worlds and the lift in the OD that she fell very badly on the grip was so different. I mean maybe they wanted to increase the difficulty at the Olympics or it was totally off from the very first second!

 

[escaflowne9282]

Except for the dance event, the dance event was the most interesting and jaw-dropping

Fixed it for you


This is actually one Olympics where I really will be happy if there are no major upsets and all goes as planned for the OGMs

I'm not really into his skating, but the idea of someone other than Nathan Chen being OGM really just feels wrong.

Likewise, if anyone other than P&C were to win the dance event , it would feel even more horrendously wrong .

Eteri owns the women's podium ,and I am here for it . At today's Europeans event , outside of the medalists, I enjoyed a grand total of 2 performances.

Pairs is the only real contest and I have no problem with either of the top 2 winning.

Please be a predictable Olympics!

 

[bardtoob]

That seems so long ago.

Well 62 years is sometimes a lifetime, so ...

 

[olympic]

I will say Valieva is probably the best bet, followed by P/C and Chen about even in the odds.

Pairs will probably provide the biggest drama among all podium positions, and those positions I bet will depend on how high S/H will rise competing in front of a hometown crowd

I would like to see an upset in Women, meaning probably Kaori or Wakaba meddling in the medals. I'm not sold on Shcherbakova or Trusova's skating. IMO, Valieva in 2022 is more watchable than Zagitova in 2018.

I think the men's podium will be Nathan, Yuzu and probably another JPN man.

As someone posted above, if anyone other than P/C wins, I will be thoroughly disgusted. I don't get the scores or the love for the RUS teams.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

I will say Valieva is probably the best bet, followed by P/C and Chen about even in the odds.

Pairs will probably provide the biggest drama among all podium positions, and those positions I bet will depend on how high S/H will rise competing in front of a hometown crowd

Personally I think P&C are a far sure bet than Chen now. Chen has a fairly good chance still, but I can't see P&C losing without either a large fall OR major politiking by the Russian fed for S&K combined with atleast some minor bobbles from P&C, since at this point struggling with his back injury, they certainly aren't strong enough on the ice to do it on their own. And I am not even considering the possability of someone other than S&K upsetting P&C as that is really far fetched. Although I think someone coming from behind (H&D, C&B, less likely even S&B or P&G) to upset S&K for silver is more likely than S&K overtaking P&C for gold at this point. I see P&C as like 90% likely to win at this point, and Chen is much more like 60-65%. Valieva is something like 99.99999%

M&G are unbeaten and probably the shaky favorites, but easily the most vurnerable. They can skate their usual perfect selves and still potentially be beaten by either a clean T&M or clean S&H, and even a clean B&K could be quite close. And that is assuming they skate perfectly again with all the pressure on them.

 

[Vash01]

I actually think Hanyu will win the gold in men's, not Chen. I didn't think so until I saw Hanyu at Japanese Nats and realized he's still as good as he used to be, or maybe even better.

I love Hanyu but his base TES are much lower than Chen's. He no longer has the 4Lz, or 4R. Instead he is going for 4A which he cannot land. He loses points on it and get a 1.0 deduction. Chen has all the quads except the 4A, of course.

 

[Vash01]

If it wasn’t for Arakawa’s win, 2006 would have been the most predictable ever. That Olympics was a yawn fest.

Russia won three out of four disciplines. Is that why you called it a yawn fest? T&M1 were truly heroic, returning after their horrific fall at SA. They skated clean, knowing that the slightest error would be used against them. I don't think their win was predictable. One of the Chinese pairs could have won, but they didn't.

Plushenko was at his best, but he too had to skate clean, and avoid the mistake he made in the 2002 SP.

I don't remember Navka Kostomarov or ice dance competition much, but ice dance is usually predictable (except in 2018).

Irina had a real opportunity to make a Russian sweep, but she faltered badly and ended up with a bronze. There was plenty of drama, with Cohen winning the silver, and Shizuka being the dark horse That won the gold.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

The 2006 Olympic dance event in some ways was unusually wide open going in. Navka & Kostomarov were clear favorites for gold, but there was more unpredictability about placements and 7 or 8 teams who could have been medal contenders which was super unusual for ice dance. Which made the way the event played out even more dissapointing. The falls and sloppy errors (both DelSchoes and DenSta did not fall but had significant errors) in the original dance really took the life out of the event. And ultimately we got the exact same podium in the exact same order as the 2005 worlds, even though all 3, particularly the silver and bronze medalists, had relatively lackluster free dances.

 

[briancoogaert]

Well, for me, it's all the contrary. So unpredictable !
The level is so high, one mistake and you loose 5 places !

Ladies : Russian Sweep, maybe, with japanese skaters close if a russian makes mistakes.
Men : Chen, Hanyu for gold, Uno, Kagiyama, Zhou, a russian for bronze (and we saw Nathan can make mistakes and that Hanyu is unpredictable).
Dance : judges want so much to make a fight between Pap&Ciz and Sinit&Katsa... one little mistake can make the difference. Bronze between : Stepanova&Bukin, Chock&Bates, Hubbell&Donohue...
Pairs : very unpredictable. The 3 russian teams are so good, and the chinese too. In any case, what a podium it will be !

 

[VGThuy]

Russia won three out of four disciplines. Is that why you called it a yawn fest?

Please don't prescribe anti-Russian animus onto me.

Nice that you love T/M though. The only thing I can say about them is they certainly were the most complete team competing. The competition was still boring though because their biggest competition seriously injured themselves out of competing for gold and Pang/Tong would never be given the gold no matter how clean they were and even if T/M made a major error. Their luck would better a month later with the politicking needs changed. The Zhangs were...well, they were silver medalists thanks to S/Z's injuries.

Plushenko breezed onto that gold medal with empty programs but great jumps. What made it boring was that no other man could even come close to him to give him a run for his money. In fact, no other man could even skate cleanly. That was a horrible competition overall and I wished Plushenko won his gold medal with some pressure from the competition.

Ice dance...that medal ceremony felt like a coronation not a result from competition.

At least Ladies provided a close competition. After the SP, whoever between Arakawa, Cohen, or Slutskaya won, at least we knew there was a close race. Arakawa being the third favorite winning made it a bit more exciting though, I must admit. She didn't qualify for the GPF nor did she win Nationals (or come in second) - she was actually third at Japanese Nationals and was 4th in the LP behind Suguri, Asada, and Onda!

 

[DreamSkates]

Well, part of me thinks that the gold medal is pretty obvious per discipline but I've watched, as many of you have, quite a few Olympics and been surprised by who withdrew, who was there and put out the skate of a lifetime, and who was expected to win but did not for one reason or the other. Especially with the possibility of getting ***** last minute and not being allowed to compete.

 

[puglover]

Baring something catastrophic, I cannot see P/C going home with anything but the gold medal. I will be very upset if that is played around with.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

Well, part of me thinks that the gold medal is pretty obvious per discipline but I've watched, as many of you have, quite a few Olympics and been surprised by who withdrew, who was there and put out the skate of a lifetime, and who was expected to win but did not for one reason or the other. Especially with the possibility of getting ***** last minute and not being allowed to compete.

Which Olympics had a virtually lock going in lose though in any event? I am trying to think of times and I can hardly think of anytime it happened. These are the people I thought going in were virtual locks and how it went.

1980 Olympic pairs Rodnina & Zaitsev- won
1980 Olympic dance Linichuk & Karpanasov- won (barely but they won)
1984 Olympics dance Torvill & Dean- won
1984 Olympics Hamilton- won
1988 Olympics pairs Gordeeva & Grinkov- won
1988 Olympics dance Bestiamanova & Bukin- won
1992 Olympics pairs Miskutienok & Dmitriev- won
1994 Olympics pairs Gordeeva & Grinkov- won
1998 Olympics dance- Gritschuk & Platov- won
2006 Olympics pairs Totmianina & Marinin- won
2006 Olympics men Plushenko- won
2006 Olympics dance Navka & Kostomarov- won
2010 Olympics pairs Shen & Zhao- won
2010 Olympics ladies Yu Na Kim- won
2014 Olympics pairs Volosozhar & Trankov- won
2018 Olympics mens Hanyu- won

Yeah looks like every single time someone went in who felt like a virtualy lock they won. No exceptions. Probably going back even earlier than that. The only times I could see people coming up with would be ones I wouldn't agree with.

1998 Olympics Kwan- She was definitely the favorite, but I didn't feel like she was ever a lock like the above mentioned. She had lost to Tara 3 times in less than a year, and was injured.

1992 Olympics Ito- I have a feeling some would say this but I would definitely disagree with this. She was for sure the favorite, and I picked her to win, but both Yamaguchi and Harding were threats to her and for the gold as well. She had a ton of pressure on her and was already a bit beat up with injuries by this point of her career. Plus had been 4th at the previous years worlds, even if only due to accidents. If this were in 1990 with no figures she would feel like a lock, but not by 1992. If she skated cleanly she was unbeatable, but this was far from a sure thing by then.

2014 Olympics Kim- Definitely not. She had an injury, had not competed all season. Asada had built up momentum, a lot more than she had in 2010. And with it being in Russia it was predcitable the Russian girls would be overscored if they skated even competently well. She was probably still the favorite but only a shaky favorite, unlike 2010.

 

[Judy]

I’m always just excited to see really good skating. Covid makes me a bit nervous.

 

[jenny12]

Russia won three out of four disciplines. Is that why you called it a yawn fest?

They all had incredibly boring programs that I haven’t rewatched once. That’s why I would call it a yawn fest.

I don’t hate because they’re Russian; I hate because they’re boring.

 

[MacMadame]

whole post

Your list is extremely cherry-picked

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

Your list is extremely cherry-picked

No it isn't. Those are the ones who going in were seen as virtual locks, and they all won. Simple math.

 

[MacMadame]

No it isn't. Those are the ones who going in were seen as virtual locks, and they all won. Simple math.

Seen by whom? And you left off at least 4 cases that I can think off the top of my head that were generally seen as locks that didn't go that way. I'm sure if I went back that far and looked at all the disciplines, I could come up with more. Though personally I don't think anything pre-IJS should count.

To get back to the original question, I think Mens is up in the air between Hanyu and Chen. I thought Dance was a lock until I saw the push for SinKats this Fall. Women and Pairs have their favorites but I don't think either of them are locks. Without a GPF and with Omicron throwing a wrench into many sports, it's hard to say. Plus this is Kamila Valieva's first full season as a Senior as she did no internationals last year. So we haven't seen how she'll do in a high-pressure situation like the Olympics or Worlds.

 

[orbitz]

Yeah looks like every single time someone went in who felt like a virtualy lock they won.

I think MK was considered a lock for 2002. Kwan headed into the Games after winning Worlds back-to-back: 2000 and 2001. The Olympic was in U.S. soil, which supposedly gave her home field advantage, whatever that meant. If she had stood up she would have won. The judges wanted her to win.

Kurt Browning was also considered a sure thing for 1992. He came into Games as a 3 times consecutive World champion.

 

[blue_idealist]

I love Hanyu but his base TES are much lower than Chen's. He no longer has the 4Lz, or 4R. Instead he is going for 4A which he cannot land. He loses points on it and get a 1.0 deduction. Chen has all the quads except the 4A, of course.

I didn't realize that he'd lost those two jumps. I watched a Japanese video of him skating, and I don't understand Japanese LOL, so all I could pick out were quads, triples, and axels. That changes things and makes me thing more strongly about Nathan winning instead.

 

[canbelto]

Ice is slippery. Both the men and women in order to be competitive have high risk/high reward programs. There could easily be a fall in the SP.

I agree that ice dance is a total lock, barring a freak event like Gabby's outfit popping open and her skating the entire RD trying not to bare her boobs to the world. Of course that would never happen. Oh wait ...

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

Seen by whom? And you left off at least 4 cases that I can think off the top of my head that were generally seen as locks that didn't go that way.

Like who? I am truly fascinated to hear what those would be. I guess you could argue Kwan in 98 but that is it.

I think MK was considered a lock for 2002. Kwan headed into the Games after winning Worlds back-to-back: 2000 and 2001. The Olympic was in U.S. soil, which supposedly gave her home field advantage, whatever that meant. If she had stood up she would have won. The judges wanted her to win.

Kurt Browning was also considered a sure thing for 1992. He came into Games as a 3 times consecutive World champion.

Kwan in 2002 a lock. LOLLLLLLLLLL! That is so ridiculous I nearly fell out of my chair laughing. Thanks for that, I needed a huge laugh. She had just lost to a 3 triple Slutskaya at the Grand Prix final (with 6 triples herself), and lost 4 times that season already. I am not sure if she was even favored, let alone lock. I wasn't even a tiny bit surprised she lost, although a bit surprised Hughes won, but not that much even at that with all the problems Slutskaya and Kwan were both having all season (and those who thought baby Cohen with no experience was even winning, or a stronger contender than rock consistent Hughes were dreaming, depsite there being some ridiculous hype from unintelligents like Hammond and Bezic that Cohen was a stronger contender than Hughes).

Everyone knew Browning was injured in 92, so he wasn't even close to a lock. He had won Trophee Lalique with a mere 2 triples , didn't even skate at his Nationals, and you think he is a lock!?!?! When he won Worlds by just .1 fully healthy and about 10 times stronger than that a year earlier. I would have been pretty surprised if he somehow won with his back injury in fact. That is even more ridiculous than Kwan in 2002 being a lock. Again everyone knew he was badly injured, it was not exactly some secret. And he was falling all over the place in practices from even the Canadian reports.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

BTW here is the only competitive skate that season from so called "Olympic Gold lock" Browning in the 91-92 season:

Kurt Browning (CAN) - 1991 Trophee Lalique, Men's Free Skate

Albertville, FRANCE - 1991 Trophee Lalique, Men's Free Skate - First, the end section to the Free Skate of Aleksei Urmanov of the Soviet Union, followed by t...

www.youtube.com

 

[MacMadame]

You are looking at the results with hindsight. In 1998, everyone thought Kwan was a lock. They said the same thing about Browning in 94. Those games were supposed to be their coronation. Since they weren't, it's easy to say this was obvious at the time. But I was alive then so I know that it was not.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

You are looking at the results with hindsight. In 1998, everyone thought Kwan was a lock. They said the same thing about Browning in 94. Those games were supposed to be their coronation. Since they weren't, it's easy to say this was obvious at the time. But I was alive then so I know that it was not.

No I am not. Not one bit.

Browning in 94 had lost at his own Nationals to Stojko. He was 4th in the short program at his own Nationals (and lost the LP to Stojko too). How is that a lock. In fact CBS (I assume you are American) talked about the mens event being a 5 way battle for gold going in, sure sounds like the experts, such as Scott Hamilton and Tracy Wilson who talked up this 5 way battle, thought Browning was some lock. And as I already covered 92 he was not even close to a lock with a back injury, barely competing, and doing a lowly 2 triples at his only outing. Maybe if he didn't have a back injury he would be close to a lock in 92, but that is inventing an alternate reality that sadly for Browning is not the one that existed. That is no hindsight, I actually followed skating back then so know what I am talking about, unlike many of you apparently.

I conceded Kwan in 98 is the only one that you might be able to make a case for. So that is exactly one time a supposed lock lost. 1 is a long way from 4.

 

[Japanfan]

It didn't occur to me until I read this thread that S/H might not get the gold.

Now I'm nervous. I do so want them to win the gold on home ice.

SFAIK, no one has taken over the Pairs program in China - although that may be changed. So after this Olympics it's going to come down to the Russians for pairs medals at world/Olympics, unless another Sale/Pelletier comes along,and that happens maybe once in 50 years.

 

[MacMadame]

I conceded Kwan in 98 is the only one that you might be able to make a case for. So that is exactly one time a supposed lock lost. 1 is a long way from 4.

I would also argue that some of the people in your list that you said were a lock were not a lock as well. The thing is, there is a difference between being favored to win and being a lock.

For example, Torvill and Dean in 84 were a lock. GriPla in 1994 were not. That was a battle between them and Usova/Zhulin with T/D serving as spoilers. U/Z were the reigning world champions and were undefeated the season before. And Torvill and Dean had just beaten both teams at Euros.

 

[Lemonade20]

Honestly, even if we think somebody's got a lock, it's still not guaranteed they can bring home the gold. All it takes is one mistake. Or in this case, a positive test to take you out of the running. Let's hope everyone stays healthy and makes the best out of what's sure to be a memorable Olympics.

 

[nuge]

Dance 2006 was so exciting except for the winners .Belbin/ Agosto could they beat N/K? Denstas missed Euros so not to be judged according to Simon Reed. The return of FP/M and D/V. The CD won by FP/M THEN all the falls in the OD poor MF plus death stare what was happening ?THEN FP/M unravelling in the FD and Grushgons slooooow FD with tassles honestly it had everything.