2026 Olys Womens SP PBP - Cheated Rivalry

[ChillSkate]

Not to pile on Amber in the shoulda, woulda, coulda, but if she had powered through and kept going with some oomph, she could well be in the penultimate group with the rest of the pack and stand a bit better, though somewhat long shot at a chance at a medal, especially considering she has a fairly consistent 3A in her pocket

Totally - if she had stuck with the program, she could have easily gotten a +2 to +3 on her footwork and gotten ~1 additional point on her Components for an additional ~2.5 points which would put her around 70 points and into 9th or 10th place. Would not be a great result but would have put her within striking distance of the podium with a clean Free. She of all skaters should know better than to throw a program away like that.

 

[MacMadame]

I have a bad feeling that we're going to wind up with a podium of Kaori, Alysa & Adeliia in some order. Two of whom I'd be fine with.

Nakai's 3A is wildly inconsistent. Chiba has fallen apart in her last 3 free skates. Neither of them are going to be on the podium, so this talk of a Japanese sweep is ridiculous. None of the rest of the women behind Petrosian have the tech base value to catch up with her even if she falls on both of her under-rotated 4Ts.

This analysis assumes Adeliia will skate well. I have been assuming she will succumb to nerves and make a few mistakes. Except for the qualifying event, she hasn't completed on the international stage since '21 and that was as a Junior. For the past 5 years, it's only been Russian domestic comps. Add in the pressure to perform for The Motherland and it being THE OLYMPICS and I think she will not podium.

Nakai and Chibe could end up anywhere, but Alysa absolutely will be okay. Kaori may make mistakes but she often podiums with mistakes.

Therefore, I think the podium will be Alysa, Kaori and "someone else." I just don't know who that someone will be.

I swear I don't know why any of these athletes (or honestly people in general) would be on social media. Is the latest TikTok dance worth it? I like kitten and puppies as much as the next person but really I don't see many useful things.

They need to have a social media presence to have fans which leads to endorsements, but they should treat social media as a write-only medium. Post their stuff, don't read the comments and don't read other people's stuff.

 

[Skaterbob]

This analysis assumes Adeliia will skate well. I have been assuming she will succumb to nerves and make a few mistakes. Except for the qualifying event, she hasn't completed on the international stage since '21 and that was as a Junior. For the past 5 years, it's only been Russian domestic comps. Add in the pressure to perform for The Motherland and it being THE OLYMPICS and I think she will not podium.

Nakai and Chibe could end up anywhere, but Alysa absolutely will be okay. Kaori may make mistakes but she often podiums with mistakes.

Therefore, I think the podium will be Alysa, Kaori and "someone else." I just don't know who that someone will be.


They need to have a social media presence to have fans which leads to endorsements, but they should treat social media as a write-only medium. Post their stuff, don't read the comments and don't read other people's stuff.

This analysis assumes Adeliia will skate well. I have been assuming she will succumb to nerves and make a few mistakes. Except for the qualifying event, she hasn't completed on the international stage since '21 and that was as a Junior. For the past 5 years, it's only been Russian domestic comps. Add in the pressure to perform for The Motherland and it being THE OLYMPICS and I think she will not podium.

Nakai and Chibe could end up anywhere, but Alysa absolutely will be okay. Kaori may make mistakes but she often podiums with mistakes.

Therefore, I think the podium will be Alysa, Kaori and "someone else." I just don't know who that someone will be.


They need to have a social media presence to have fans which leads to endorsements, but they should treat social media as a write-only medium. Post their stuff, don't read the comments and don't read other people's stuff.

Yea I get that they need a presence of some sort but you don’t need to be checking likes and comments. There are services that handle PR accounts too. All of these skaters are represented by agents as far as I know.

 

[Cachoo]

The person I worry about is Kaori. Her short in the team competition was glorious imho. Today it was solid but not glorious while Ami came bebopping in and looked so fresh. Come to think of it Alysa did too. I want Kaori to be pedal to the metal Thursday.

 

[Wyliefan]

Watching on NBC again now. For reasons best known to himself, Terry appears to be trying to pronounce Petrosian with a French accent.

 

[Prancer]

Not to pile on Amber with the shoulda, woulda, couldas, but if she had powered through and sold the ending of the program a bit better, she could be in the penultimate group.

I'm sure if Amber had a choice in the matter, she would have done exactly that.

This analysis assumes Adeliia will skate well. I have been assuming she will succumb to nerves and make a few mistakes. Except for the qualifying event, she hasn't completed on the international stage since '21 and that was as a Junior. For the past 5 years, it's only been Russian domestic comps. Add in the pressure to perform for The Motherland and it being THE OLYMPICS and I think she will not podium.

I don't know about that; she looks pretty fierce. But I saw some video of her practicing quads and a tech panel that punishes URs won't do her any favors there.

Watching on NBC again now. For reasons best known to himself, Terry appears to be trying to pronounce Petrosian with a French accent.

It's the Johnny effect.

 

[bardtoob]

Is PETROSIAN really that extremely a jumping bean?

ETA: I haven't seen her skate . . . but the comments here in the thread seem to align with the TES and PCS scores.

 

[Prancer]

Is PETROSIAN really that extremely a jumping bean?

ETA: I haven't seen her skate . . . but the comments here in the thread seem to align with the TES and PCS scores.

If you were to watch her without knowing who she is, you would immediately identify her as an Eteri girl.

 

[MacMadame]

I don't know about that; she looks pretty fierce.

Lots of people who look fierce in the SP, melt down in the FS.

 

[bardtoob]

If you were to watch her without knowing who she is, you would immediately identify her as an Eteri girl.

Well, that's not going to cause me to run to Youtube.

 

[millyskate]

I was really looking forward to watching this and was oh so smug that we got the baby millys to sleep. We even had a bottle of cheap prosecco open.
However 2 hours at soft play took its toll and I fell asleep half way through Schizas and the Lion King. Shame!

 

[Prancer]

Lots of people who look fierce in the SP, melt down in the FS.

She looked pretty fierce in her FP in Beijing at the qualifier, too.

I get that it wasn't the Olympics. But there was a lot of pressure on her just the same and she didn't flinch.

 

[Sylvia]

NBC Sports uploaded 6 SPs to their YT channel (geoblocked outside USA) - Petrosian's is the only one whose music was replaced.

 

[bardtoob]

I predict that the Japanese will sweep the podium, although Petrosian could leap onto the podium if she does some no pressure quad clinic.

Alyssa will have a hard time staying in 3rd but could be 4th unless she has a surprise, because everybody but Kaori will have a surprise. Nakai already showed her surprise.

Isabeau will be rock steady but be in the top 10. I really like her SP with the 1950s socialite aesthetic.

Amber Glenn will cause everybody to say "redemption" over and over as if her LP was to "Like A Prayer" rather than her SP. Also, I predict Tara will talk a lot about skating mad.

ETA: FWIW Amber's SP was aesthetically not that bad, and she did do the 3A. She actually can recover and be in the Top 6, which would be respectable, given the field. The American ladies are really sort of Bronzish when everybody skates well.

 

[Aussie Willy]

I am seeing comments from various sites, either news or skating related, coming up on my FB feed that have been posting stuff about the Olympics. It has only been a few hours since the event but they are already publicly punching down on the US women. The event is not even over. FFS just leave them alone.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Watching on NBC again now. For reasons best known to himself, Terry appears to be trying to pronounce Petrosian with a French accent.

Perhaps to combat Johnny's over dramatic Russian pronounciation?

I don't know about that; she looks pretty fierce. But I saw some video of her practicing quads and a tech panel that punishes URs won't do her any favors there.

Unless the tech panel sees a quad and goes blind, which could happen. They've called mostly Q and two quads with a Q will put her on the top step if everything else is clean.

 

[just tuned in]

Watching belatedly. I thought Isabeau looked tight. Less smiley and less engaging than usual. Jumps landing lower than usual. I am glad she held it together.

 

[Bunny Hop]

Thanks all who made suggestions for who to watch from the earlier groups. I watched them over lunch.

Samodelkina was delightful.

Sauter - I had intended to go back and watch her Euros skate based on what people said here but never found time to do so. She was really enjoyable and so happy with her score.

How have I managed to miss Haein Lee's hideous dress all year?

As for Petrosian, leaving aside the whole bllshit 'neutral athlete' thing, should definitely be below Gubanova, somewhere in that cluster of skaters all on 70 points.

 

[Karen-W]

I know the realism of being at the Olympics has gotten to Amber just like it had gotten to Ilia. I wish I could tell Amber to ease up and just have fun like Alysa does. I'm praying for Amber that those nerves will go away and just enjoy the moment.

Hard disagree with this. Amber has a 50% success rate with a clean SP over the past 2 seasons. I was looking at her results this afternoon when I logged back onto my work computer & there was practically no work available in the queue for me. This is her 12th competition in two seasons and she's had a clean SP 6 times. The only major, high-stakes, high-pressure competition in the past two seasons (2024 GPF, 2025 Nats, 2025 Worlds, 2025 GPF, 2026 Nats & 2026 Olympics) where she's delivered a completely clean SP was at 2026 Nats. This wasn't realizing that she was AT the Olympics at all. This was Amber as we've always seen her compete.

This analysis assumes Adeliia will skate well. I have been assuming she will succumb to nerves and make a few mistakes. Except for the qualifying event, she hasn't completed on the international stage since '21 and that was as a Junior. For the past 5 years, it's only been Russian domestic comps. Add in the pressure to perform for The Motherland and it being THE OLYMPICS and I think she will not podium.

Nakai and Chibe could end up anywhere, but Alysa absolutely will be okay. Kaori may make mistakes but she often podiums with mistakes.

Therefore, I think the podium will be Alysa, Kaori and "someone else." I just don't know who that someone will be.

The thing with Adeliia is that her tech base value is so high that it may not be enough for anyone else with errors to overcome even if she does have a few mistakes. Like I said, Ami's 3A is a 50-50 proposition and I fully expect her to crack under the pressure of skating last on Thursday. Maybe Mone goes clean since she won't be in the lead, but she's going to be skating right after Adeliia and I could see her getting rattled whatever way Adeliia skates.

You may be correct about the third person on the podium being any number of women with the crystal ball still unclear about her identity, lol.

She looked pretty fierce in her FP in Beijing at the qualifier, too.

I get that it wasn't the Olympics. But there was a lot of pressure on her just the same and she didn't flinch.

She also wasn't trying any quads there, so we'll see. Maybe she'll flinch here with the harder tech content she's going for, I'm just not convinced she'll do poorly enough to wind up off the podium considering the track records of the other women in the top 5.

 

[fan]

Getting caught up - niina petrokina wuz robbed - she is such a dynamic performer. Give her all the PCs. Samodelkina too.

We were all blessed to live in the kaori era.

 

[BaileyCatts]

Could someone at the arena get a step stool for Kaori's coach so she can reach over the mats and do the magic backrub thing before the FS on Thursday.

 

[Wyliefan]

Man, these extreme closeups are a little disconcerting.

 

[kemc]

Alysa Liiu - Shallow point: I am clearly too old to understand the appeal of the stripy hair. Onto the skating - good start. Jumps will be reviewed; combo in particular looked short on rotation to me. Lovely spins. Lovely program. Well done.

Really enjoyed this beautiful program. For some reason her hair reminds me of Ilia Kulik’s comment in 1998 “the shirt won”

 

[Wyliefan]

Rough interview for Amber. She couldn't get many words out.

 

[tangerine dream]

Really enjoyed this beautiful program. For some reason her hair reminds me of Ilia Kulik’s comment in 1998 “the shirt won”

Ooh, could Alysa's stripey hair be a new version of Lambiel's zebra shirt? And does that mean she is destined for the silver medal?

 

[kemc]

Did Kurt just call Gubanova "a little heavier than some of the skaters we've seen?" What's he talking about .... her music or style? Surely, not her weight because she is not heavy. Maybe, I misheard him.

He was referring to the landing of her jumps. Which I agree with actually, compared to the other top ladies that is.

 

[kemc]

Ooh, could Alysa's stripey hair be a new version of Lambiel's zebra shirt? And does that mean she is destined for the silver medal?

Or …..

Preparing to be scolded for tempting the skate gods.

 

[Aussie Willy]

He was referring to the landing of her jumps. Which I agree with actually, compared to the other top ladies that is.

Her technique is not as smooth as some of the others. She tends to muscle into them.

 

[~tapdancer~]

I am saturated with the Olympics. It's always way too much drama. And usually fairly unpredictable. But yet, NBC will forever hype skaters to no end and when they fail, I think they enjoy the bad drama as much as the good. I felt like the hype with Amber was misplaced given her track record and yet NBC persisted. Personally, I loved the sweet skater currently in 1st. She just went out and did it. I have no hopes for the FS...it is the Olympics after all.

I couldn't even comment on the pairs FS. It was too much for me. Like folks say, "I'm too old for this".

 

[BaileyCatts]

So Primetime NBC version is just gonna completely ignore Isabeau other than showing her skate? I'd be willing to bet Isabeau stopped and talked to Andrea after her skate too. They didn't even show her picture when they wrapped up the segment. Jerks.