2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Karen-W]

IMO …. schedule shmedule.

I’ll say it here…. if I was doing it from a place of logic, I would split women and pairs for the USA.

Total opposite of what most people think.

Or just women.

I think it’s more likely for women and dance to be split.

I’m doing it from logic, Ilia is a machine.. he could compete six times and be fine. Especially after he missed out on the last Olympics, he should be red-ta-go.

I’m not doing this from a place of who gets to get nine hours of sleep on the ninth and who gets to sleep 11 hours on the night of the 10th, I’m doing it from a place of logic in my opinion. Split the comparables or don’t split if you don’t need to.

The problem is that your logic is faulty. Logic needs to take into account ALL of the factors that will be at play when a decision is made. The schedule is a huge factor that you are disregarding which, to be blunt, is illogical.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

The problem is that your logic is faulty. Logic needs to take into account ALL of the factors that will be at play when a decision is made. The schedule is a huge factor that you are disregarding which, to be blunt, is illogical.

I added more to the post above. They are training these programs 5- 6 times every single day right now, I don’t have any reservations especially when it comes to Ilia, or for that matter ChoBat.

IMO it’s crucial Ilia does both. I mean I’m going about the USA once a gold and not just a medal.

 

[Karen-W]

I added more to the post above. They are training these programs 5- 6 times every single day right now, I don’t have any reservations especially when it comes to Ilia, or for that matter ChoBat.

IMO it’s crucial Ilia does both. I mean I’m going about the USA once a gold and not just a medal.

LOL! You think any of these skaters are doing 5-6 full run-throughs a day? They're running through sections and might be doing 1 full run-through a day.

Listen, I don't disagree with you that the USA shouldn't split the men if they want to win the gold, but I also don't expect it to happen. I may be wrong, especially seeing how much media attention the US figure skating team is getting in the run-up to the Olympics. With them being hailed as the strongest team we've had in decades, the USFS/USOPC may be feeling some pressure to defend the team gold in a way that didn't exist even a few months ago.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Meanwhile, you've got Ilia skating on Feb 7th & 8th, then he gets 1 day off before he competes again in the Men's SP with a whopping 4 days before the Men's FS.

Ilia is the Simone Biles of men’s figure skating, if she can do two competitions days in a row for qualifications for four apparatuses, and then go right back the next day to throw down all four apparatuses for the team event, and then go for the individual all-around, and then compete for the floor title, then the vault title, then the beam title than the uneven bar title….. now come on now. Ilia is a machine!

 

[tony]

Ilia wouldn't have to do a massive amount of quads in the team free skate if he does indeed get summoned or even decides to do so. Ultimately, it's going to be what he wants and surely if it's too much then he won't do it. But he can still do a 'conservative' free skate like we saw at Nationals and still probably win. I would guess the Japanese Fed will give Kagiyama the short and then Sato the free skate. Grassl, Egadze, and Aymoz/Siao/Gogolev - Ilia doesn't exactly need to be popping off 6 quads to win that.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Z/K said they do four run-throughs/day: two of the RD and two of the FD. Five-six might tire even them out.

 

[Karen-W]

Ilia wouldn't have to do a massive amount of quads in the team free skate if he does indeed get summoned or even decides to do so. Ultimately, it's going to be what he wants and surely if it's too much then he won't do it. But he can still do a 'conservative' free skate like we saw at Nationals and still probably win. I would guess the Japanese Fed will give Kagiyama the short and then Sato the free skate. Grassl, Egadze, and Aymoz/Siao/Gogolev - Ilia doesn't exactly need to be popping off 6 quads to win that.

That's the assumption I've been operating on - Yuma is the only skater with a chance of beating Ilia in the SP.

 

[Allskate]

I’m doing it from logic, Ilia is a machine.. he could compete six times and be fine. Especially after he missed out on the last Olympics, he should be red-ta-go.

Compete six times and be fine? He's not a machine. He didn't even win the SP at the GP Final and he took it pretty easy in his Nationals long program. I really don't think Ilia is doing 5-6 runthroughs every day, and they certainly wouldn't all be great. And runtthroughs in practice don't take the same amount of energy as competition does. He said he was really tired at the end of the GP Final.

IMO, Ilia could take it fairly easy in the TE and still do a lot to help the team, but I think the competitor in him would find that hard. And I think there would then be a significant risk that he would not skate as well in the individual event, though he probably still would win, just not in such a dominant and record-breaking fashion. But, I don't think he's spent his life dreaming of a team gold, and I do think he has spent the last year or two dreaming of not only winning, but absolutely crushing it, in the individual event.

the USFS/USOPC may be feeling some pressure to defend the team gold in a way that didn't exist even a few months ago.

Isn't it Ilia's decision to make?

Z/K said they do four run-throughs/day: two of the RD and two of the FS.

They didn't say how good the additional run-throughs are or whether any of them included successfully landing a quad axel and six other quads. Are they doing four great runthroughs per day while they are at competitions?

 

[tony]

There has to be a little logic applied to this. USFS isn't going to force anyone into a corner when it comes to the schedule. We know from the past that they went by World Standings points and allowed those skaters whether they wanted to skate both programs or not, and so on. Luckily this year, Malinin and Chock/Bates have to be the two highest-scoring athletes/team and they would get to choose what they want-- they also are in the two disciplines that skate directly after the Team Event finishes. If they run out of space (ie. men and dance do split), then yes the women and pairs would have to rely on one skater.

Georgia has to do it across all disciplines. Italy has to do it across 2 of the four disciplines and may very well have all 4 with one skater/team across both programs. I guarantee both countries will gladly do it because they really want that team medal and none of them really have a shot at individual gold. I suppose Metelkina/Berulava do have a small outside chance, but pairs also have a lot of time to recover.

Point blank: if Ilia says it's too much and it's going to hinder his individual gold chances, there ain't no way in hell USFS cries about it and tries to force him into something. Zero. Percent. Chance.

 

[Allskate]

Point blank: if Ilia says it's too much and it's going to hinder his individual gold chances, there ain't no way in hell USFS cries about it and tries to force him into something. Zero. Percent. Chance.

I agree that they won't force him. Also, I'm pretty sure the rules give him a choice. But, I'm hoping that they might find a way to bribe him and appeal to the Quad God's ego. Maybe line up a sponsor for him if he agrees to try and be the one who saves the American team gold in the final segment of the TE. If he chooses to water down the FS, ask NBC to announce that just before he skates. NBC definitely would prefer Ilia to Torgy (though they might be fine with Max). NBC could talk about how awesome Ilia is even when he's taking it easy.

 

[kwanfan1818]

They didn't say how good the additional run-throughs are or whether any of them included successfully landing a quad axel and six other quads. Are they doing four great runthroughs per day while they are at competitions?

I suspect that Zingas/Kolesnik aren't doing any quads in Ice Dance. They credited their shape/sharpness to doing those run-throughs, so it really doesn't matter how great the run-throughs were, if they succeeded in feeling like one program/day in competition was a breeze. In addition, doing run-throughs when not completely fresh or in shape are one of the only ways to create the experience of learning to finish the program under sub-standard conditions/when things go south.

No one has the ice time during normal competitions to do four run-throughs/day. They have tapering plans.

 

[PRlady]

There has to be a little logic applied to this. USFS isn't going to force anyone into a corner when it comes to the schedule. We know from the past that they went by World Standings points and allowed those skaters whether they wanted to skate both programs or not, and so on. Luckily this year, Malinin and Chock/Bates have to be the two highest-scoring athletes/team and they would get to choose what they want-- they also are in the two disciplines that skate directly after the Team Event finishes. If they run out of space (ie. men and dance do split), then yes the women and pairs would have to rely on one skater.

Georgia has to do it across all disciplines. Italy has to do it across 2 of the four disciplines and may very well have all 4 with one skater/team across both programs. I guarantee both countries will gladly do it because they really want that team medal and none of them really have a shot at individual gold. I suppose Metelkina/Berulava do have a small outside chance, but pairs also have a lot of time to recover.

Point blank: if Ilia says it's too much and it's going to hinder his individual gold chances, there ain't no way in hell USFS cries about it and tries to force him into something. Zero. Percent. Chance.

Conti/Macii have a shot at gold, pairs is flukey and Miura is injured and the Germans have had mistakes all season. The second Japanese girl, whether it’s Chiba or Nakai, has an outside chance if Kaori, Amber and Alysa flub something. So they will be skating the FS as well. It’s just that the schedule will make life much easier for a pair or lady skating the individual events.

 

[tony]

Conti/Macii have a shot at gold, pairs is flukey and Miura is injured and the Germans have had mistakes all season. The second Japanese girl, whether it’s Chiba or Nakai, has an outside chance if Kaori, Amber and Alysa flub something. So they will be skating the FS as well. It’s just that the schedule will make life much easier for a pair or lady skating the individual events.

But… the ‘second Japanese girl’ would mean they are splitting, opposite of what we are discussing with double-duty team/individual events and 4 skates

The pairs and women do indeed have it easier.

 

[Allskate]

I suspect that Zingas/Kolesnik aren't doing any quads in Ice Dance. They credited their shape/sharpness to doing those run-throughs, so it really doesn't matter how great the run-throughs were, if they succeeded in feeling like one program/day in competition was a breeze. In addition, doing run-throughs when not completely fresh or in shape are one of the only ways to create the experience of learning to finish the program under sub-standard conditions/when things go south.

No one has the ice time during normal competitions to do four run-throughs/day. They have tapering plans.

Of course they're not doing quads. That's my point. Doing a quad axel and six other quads takes more energy.

And, yes, they taper. But, Ilia wouldn't be tapering like he normally would for a competition. He would be doing four competitive programs in a relatively small amount of time. The idea that it would be easy for Ilia to do his best under this schedule just because he has done runthroughs at home is a bit unrealistic IMO. I have heard multiple skaters say that they are so exhausted after competing that even doing a relatively simple exhibition program at a gala is difficult.

I can understand the desire to have Ilia split because he can do well even when he's not at his best and it would help the team win gold. But, let's not pretend that he obviously could skate his best under this schedule and that, if he chooses not to do both segments, it's because he's too clueless to understand just how awesome he is and how all his runthroughs really would have allowed him to give his greatest performances in all four skates in such a short period.

He would be prioritizing the quality of his skating in the individual event over a team gold and he might see it as an added benefit that he would be allowing one of his friends to compete who otherwise would have been one of the very last choices for the TE. Some of us wouldn't do that tradeoff and would choose to have the strongest and fairest team and increase the chances of taking home two gold medals. You can debate that, but let's not ignore the realities of the situation.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don't care whether Malinin does the TE. I think he should do what he feels like doing. I think he should train the way that works for him.

 

[MacMadame]

Z/K said they do four run-throughs/day: two of the RD and two of the FD. Five-six might tire even them out.

And this is highly unusual. Not to mention, they also aren't doing 4 run-throughs every day at this point. Not if their coach is any good at all (and he is). [This is aimed at @AngieNikodinovLove (ANL), not you. I know you know this.]

Compete six times and be fine? He's not a machine. He didn't even win the SP at the GP Final and he took it pretty easy in his Nationals long program.

He did a 4X in the SP at the GPF just for funsies and he was injured during the FS at Nationals. I don't think either situation was normal for him so I don't factor it into the decision of what programs he does.

Here are my thoughts:

In skating, events take place over 2 days or 3. So at a GP, you might do the SP one day and the FS the next or you might get a day in between. Skaters train for this. They even train to do this two weeks in a row sometimes. What they don't train for is doing 2 skates in two days, one day off then do it again. In Dance, ChoBat would be doing 4 programs in 6 days and Malinin would be doing 4 programs in 7 days (with a 2-day break between SP and FS in the individual event which might actually cause other issues).

Now, Ilia and ChoBat knew they'd make the team and that doing both events may be what gets the team the Gold so maybe they did train for doing so many programs in so few days. (I doubt this, but can't rule it out.)

OTOH, ChoBat aren't spring chickens, so I'm not sure they have it in them to do the RD/FD two times in one week. No matter how they train. And they have individual Gold on the line in a way it isn't for Malinin. They need to nail both the RD and FD in the individual event to get individual Gold. They didn't put their lives on hold for another 4 years to win Olympic Silver IMO. IOW, they are not doing both programs in the TE, no matter what. No way, no how.

Ilia, OTOH, might be talked into it. He could definitely do a watered-down FS in the Team event and still win and he could view it as a warm-up for the individual event. So maybe he's up for it and/or maybe he can be talked into it. But it's not something I'd be betting real, actual money on.

My head gets spinning at all the rules and deadlines. At the time USFS has to put in its choice for the Mens FS, will we know if Gold is a lock or not? Paging @Karen-W!

 

[Karen-W]

My head gets spinning at all the rules and deadlines. At the time USFS has to put in its choice for the Mens FS, will we know if Gold is a lock or not? Paging @Karen-W!

No, we won't. My current projection shows the USA with a lead of approximately 6-8 points over Japan at the end of Day 2 which is EASILY surmountable by Japan, especially if they don't split pairs.

TE Men's FS skater is locked in the night before, after the TE FD.

 

[Andrey aka Pushkin]

No, we won't. My current projection shows the USA with a lead of approximately 6-8 points over Japan at the end of Day 2 which is EASILY surmountable by Japan, especially if they don't split pairs.

TE Men's FS skater is locked in the night before, after the TE FD.

I'm probably not in the loop.
Under what circumstances are 6-8 points easily surmountable in the free, esp. given that Japan is going to be dead last in the ice dance?

 

[kwanfan1818]

The 6-8 point deficit is after Day 2, which is after the FD. Any advantage the US would have in Dance is already included in the 6-8 point deficit.

If Malinin doesn't skate, and US2/3 skate, he could be dead last against Sato (or Miura), Egadze, Grassl/Rizzo, and Siao Him Fa/Aymoz, if FRA, or Gogolev, if CAN. Gogolev is as much of a wildcard as US2/3, IMO. That could very well be +4 for JPN.

For the Women, the US and JPN should be within a point of each other if they skate well. If whichever US woman falters a bit, and Gubanova skates crazy well, there could be a two-point advantage to JPN. I don't see Lara Naki Gutmann beating any of the three US Women short of a meltdown.

Pairs is up in the air, because the only givens are that Metelkina/Berulava and Kam/O'Shea will skate the FS. We can only guess/know that if CAN makes the final over FRA, without a chance to medal, Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps won't skate, and it will be Perreira/Michael. If FRA, it's Les Kovs. We don't know about Miura/Kihara or Conti/Macii, due to Miura's and Conti's injuries.

If Miura/Kihara and Conti/Macii skate, and if they and Metelkina/Berulava go 1/2/3 or 1/3/2, then Kam/O'Shea will be 4th (presumably beating Perreria/Michaud or Les Kovs). That will give JPN another 3 points. If M/K skate, and both C/M and M/B beat M/K, then it's a one-point advantage for JPN.

If Nagaoka/Moriguchi skate like they did at 2025 NHK -- they have a nearly identical SP score at 4C's -- they wouldn't beat M/B or C/M, but they very well could beat, based on scores, K/O, Ghilardi/Ambrossini, Perreira/Michaud (and would Les Kovs). So even in that scenario, K/O could lose a point or more to N/M.

I don't see it as easy, but it's not implausible that JPN could make up 6-8 points in the last three segments.

 

[Karen-W]

I'm probably not in the loop.
Under what circumstances are 6-8 points easily surmountable in the free, esp. given that Japan is going to be dead last in the ice dance?

Well, by the end of Day 2, the FD will have been completed and that 2-3 point spread between the USA & JPN will have already been added to the total points. Day 3 will give Japan potentially 10 points in all three of the remaining FS events - Pairs, Women & Men; and the USA is looking, best case scenario, at 8 points, 9 points & 6 points respectively in those three disciplines and Japan picks up 7 points total on the USA. If, at the end of Day 2, it's a 6 point spread, Japan wins gold by 1 point; if it's a 7 point spread, Japan wins gold on the tiebreaker; and if it's an 8 point spread, the USA holds on by the skin of their chinny-chin-chin for gold.

 

[firefly]

Ilia is the Simone Biles of men’s figure skating, if she can do two competitions days in a row for qualifications for four apparatuses, and then go right back the next day to throw down all four apparatuses for the team event, and then go for the individual all-around, and then compete for the floor title, then the vault title, then the beam title than the uneven bar title….. now come on now. Ilia is a machine!

I don't comment on here, but please stop calling athletes machines. They are not machines.

Simone Biles could have died from her missed vault at the Tokyo Olympics. She had to pull out of the competition as a result of severe mental health problems in part caused by some federation officials treating her as a machine and their ticket to gold.

 

[Spikefan]

I just wish they moved team event to the end. Have all the individual done by 2/16 and TE 2/19-2/21. How do they make this happen for 2030?

 

[A.H.Black]

I just wish they moved team event to the end. Have all the individual done by 2/16 and TE 2/19-2/21. How do they make this happen for 2030?

I know a lot of people feel this way. I don't. Having the team event first builds the excitement for figure skating from before the beginning. It was especially evident in 2022. Viewers are introduced to the skaters, get excited, and then know they get to see them again in their own competitions.

If you put the team event at the end, it can become an afterthought. It lessens it's importance rather than building the anticipation. I think it's just as hard on the skaters as having it first for lots of reasons. At worst, it can become the gala before the gala - even a fluff piece. Those medals should have the importance they are meant to and, for me, that means having the team event at the beginning.