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Or, give the kids who have never been to Worlds some experience before the individual event. Z/K seem rather nerveless but the Olympics have a way of unnerving everybody.
2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion
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Theatregirl1122
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There is absolutely no way they do. Why on earth would they?
That being said, I don't see the US decided that they aren't going to win gold and just throwing people out for the experience. Hopefully they will select the teams available to them that they feel will do the best. If ChoBat can't/won't do both, they will have to choose between C/P and Z/K, but I HIGHLY doubt they will be choosing based on ChoBat's preferences OR on which team "needs to get their FD out there."
Spiralgraph
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I didn't think so but at the last Olympics it seemed like C/B and H/D made a deal to share the team event. It was not emphasized in the media that they don't make the final decision, that US figure skating does.
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C/B and H/D had been trading results and titles for years. Now, C/B clearly outranks the other two teams and they’re the World Champions. I almost wish the other two teams could split the TE for their own experience, but it would cost points.
Barbara Manatee
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C/B and H/D knew they were the undisputed top 2 so when they agreed that neither would sign up for both segments there was no question which teams would be used.
Karen-W
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Well, that's been suggested as a good reason why FBCiz would want to do the RD since their choreo step seq keeps getting a ! call. If it's a valid reason for FBCiz to skate the RD, then why isn't it just as valid to want to give CarPon a chance to put their revised FD in front of the judges? Is it because they're not contending for a medal?
Karen-W
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Yes, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, though it would put the US in a position to be vying for silver & bronze with Italy & Georgia, rather than vying for gold with Japan. I can't see the USFS doing that unless ChoBat really want to focus solely on their own event.
Bulletsdad
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Z/K will most likely pull ahead of C/P after 4CC (by placing first). Based on Nationals, BOW and WR, I see no reason why they shouldn't be selected over C/P for TE FD.
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If they're going to split just to give skaters their own experience, I vote that it be the women, who have the deepest field and best finishes this season and last. And that probably wouldn't cost as many points.
Tinycities
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This feels like quite a far reach to justify giving it to C/P.
There’s an Olympic medal involved.
tangerine dream
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Another factor was the Shibutanis deciding to do both segments of the TE in 2018 (a decision many considered selfish) even though H/D were the national champions and all three finished within one point at nationals (H/D 197.12, Shibs 196.96, C/B 196.60). Given H/D and C/B were both left out in 2018 I think most people agreed they would want to split it in 2022. IIRC H/D were considered the slightly stronger team in 2022 but C/B won Nationals.
MacMadame
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It's a valid reason for both teams to want to do the TE. It's not a valid reason for USFS to pick who does the TE.
It's not a valid reason to pick FBCiz either but there is a valid reason to pick them so it's irrelevant.
Theatregirl1122
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That's why FBCiz might decide to do it. Team France would pick them because they have a strong chance of winning the RD and, if not, would come in second.
They were clearly ranked 1 and 2. If whoever was 1 said they would split, than the other one would be second. If that hadn't been true, they wouldn't have been able to make such a deal.
Braulio
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Well, we know we can't compare competitions, but Yoshida/Morita are making progress and at 4CC rhythm dance just placed above couples of Korea, China that on paper are supposed to be in front of Japan in that segment of the Team Event and the US taking advantage of the potential benefit of first place against the 9th or 10th place expected from the Japanese
If Japan replicates this in Milano, it could mean they end up around 7th place in the rhythm dance portion scoring valuable points, 2 more than expected and make things very very close, I have the gold over silver margin about 2 points difference
USA indeed will need Ilia and C/B to full force
If Japan replicates this in Milano, it could mean they end up around 7th place in the rhythm dance portion scoring valuable points, 2 more than expected and make things very very close, I have the gold over silver margin about 2 points difference
USA indeed will need Ilia and C/B to full force
Karen-W
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Do you really expect Quan to miss his twizzles again in a couple weeks? I think there's a higher chance of Chiba falling in the SP again like she did today and winding up behind Gubanova, Gutmann & Schizas in that segment than LimQuan scoring as low as they did today in the TE RD.
WangLiu weren't above YoMori at Skate to Milano, so them losing to them here at 4CCs isn't that surprising. My projection has them in 8th and a tie with the USA on total points, with them winning the tie breaker.
I think the dance placement is more unpredictable than the women for Japan. Mone placed pretty well despite her fall at Four Continents. Even with the fall, she placed above everyone who isn't Japanese, including a bunch of skaters who didn't fall. Her PCS was above Yuna Aoki's in all three categories. The judges love Mone and have all season. I think the judges would be even kinder to Kaori if she made a mistake. And it's not like Gutmann, Gubanova, and Schizas didn't have their own problems at Canadian Nationals and Europeans or that their problems were unusual. I would be very surprised if the Japanese women finish lower than second in either segment of the TE.
The more I look over this, the more I feel like France may be in there for the 5th spot over Canada in the SP/RD.
And if that's the case and the US really wants gold, they are going to have to beg Ilia to no end to do the free skate because it could be Egadze, Grassl, a Japanese man, and either Siao or Aymoz as the four others. Putting Torgashev or Naumov into the free skate, even if decent, could easily put them 5th of 5. They can't afford that.
And if that's the case and the US really wants gold, they are going to have to beg Ilia to no end to do the free skate because it could be Egadze, Grassl, a Japanese man, and either Siao or Aymoz as the four others. Putting Torgashev or Naumov into the free skate, even if decent, could easily put them 5th of 5. They can't afford that.
Karen-W
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That's how I'm seeing it too. The SP/RD averages favor France edging Canada out for the FS/FD phase of the competition.
The weak link for the FS/FD is the men for the US more than it is dance or pairs, even. And, honestly, even if it is Canada in the FS/FD, I don't see Torgashev or Naumov beating Gogolev. The only possible man they may beat in the TE FS is Rizzo, presuming Italy splits, and it would take a lights out, great skate from Torgy or Max to beat even the Rizzo we saw at Euros, which isn't exactly Rizzo at his prime.
They could beat the Aymoz we saw at Euros.
Karen-W
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Well, we didn't see Aymoz in the FS at Euros. Gotta figure France will use Siao Him Fa in the SP.They could beat the Aymoz we saw at Euros.
Yes, we didn't see him because he had such a horrible SP despite being in great shape and having a great warm-up. I don't think we can be sure that version of Kevin won't show up in the FS. But, I agree that the odds are that the American man in the FS is going to come in last unless Ilia does both.
I think everyone knows that, if the U.S. wants gold in the TE, then Ilia should do the FS. But, I'm pretty sure both Ilia and USFS think the men's competition is more important than the TE.
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AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)
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I don’t think at all, Ilia has to be begged to skate the free skate in the TE or begged for both portions at all… He’s going to walk away most likely with two gold medals, he’s got the stamina and the energy and let’s face it the charisma, uniqueness, nerve and talent to do all of that.
Now someone like me who has blossomed into a ripe 28 year old that I may have a harder time with it.
Now someone like me who has blossomed into a ripe 28 year old that I may have a harder time with it.
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Let’s face it, the other countries, except Japan with a steady second in Sato, need their top man to skate both as well. Egadze has to do both TE and individual and if Adam is halfway healed, so does he, the downside risk with Kevin is enormous. Grassl may be nobody’s favorite but his BV is very high. Gogolev, if it’s Canada which I doubt, has to do both as well.
All the guys are probably muttering about the lousy scheduling but it is what it is.
All the guys are probably muttering about the lousy scheduling but it is what it is.
There is zero downside to Kevin doing the free skate most likely because it's super improbable that France will be in there for a medal. As such, Lopareva/Brissaud would almost be guaranteed there as well.
Now Georgia- every single one of them has to skate both segments because they only have one entry in each. They've all known this for a long time though and surely have prepared to do so. Italy will be in there fighting for bronze with Georgia so Grassl will probably be stuck with the task of delivering in both segments, too.
AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)
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I thought about it again, and I still haven’t changed my mind since the very beginning. Think the US will split women and dance, but if not dance than pairs and here’s why…
You can’t break up Ilia, because if you throw in Torgi or Max, there’s not going to even finish in the top three or four of their segment.
You have to split comparables, generally speaking, Amber and Alysa are comparable, they have roughly the same exact short program score and roughly the same exact long program score give or take. No other man can come close to Ilia…… dance you can get perhaps ZingKol or CarPon somewhere closer to the top than you could with a second US man.
IMO Ilia will not get burned out, perhaps ever so slightly Alysa and Amber can if they have to go four times.
And the only reason why I kind of think they would split dance because you guys are persuaded me so much… dance goes first, dance goes first, dance goes first… First, I was like who cares, but you guys have convinced me just ever so slightly.
With the US pairs, it’s going to be .. sorry… A mediocre pair for another mediocre pair, so those are comparables… It’s just kind of hard to justify an Olympic medal for two pairs…
The More You Know
You can’t break up Ilia, because if you throw in Torgi or Max, there’s not going to even finish in the top three or four of their segment.
You have to split comparables, generally speaking, Amber and Alysa are comparable, they have roughly the same exact short program score and roughly the same exact long program score give or take. No other man can come close to Ilia…… dance you can get perhaps ZingKol or CarPon somewhere closer to the top than you could with a second US man.
IMO Ilia will not get burned out, perhaps ever so slightly Alysa and Amber can if they have to go four times.
And the only reason why I kind of think they would split dance because you guys are persuaded me so much… dance goes first, dance goes first, dance goes first… First, I was like who cares, but you guys have convinced me just ever so slightly.
With the US pairs, it’s going to be .. sorry… A mediocre pair for another mediocre pair, so those are comparables… It’s just kind of hard to justify an Olympic medal for two pairs…
The More You Know
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Of course Torgy or Max are likely to finish very low. It just doesn't follow that Ilia will do both segments of the TE. If he doesn't want to do that he won't do that. Ilia is going to win individual gold and I doubt doing both segments of the TE would change that. It is one of the least suspenseful events in the Olympics. But, do you really think that Ilia just wants to win? He wants to win with the highest score ever, by the largest margin ever, with the most quads and most difficult quads ever.
There are two days between the TE men's FS and the individual men's SP. There also are two days between the TE FD and the individual event RD. So, if you think the dance should split because of the timing, why not the men?
I would love for Ilia to do both segments of the TE. I just don't think it's going to happen. I would love to be proven wrong.
ice coverage
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There is one day btwn TE men's FS (Sun Feb 8) and individual men's SP (Tue Feb 10).
Also one day btwn TE FD (Sat Feb 7) and individual event RD (Mon Feb 9).
At least that is how I would say it.
Just trying to get the Milan schedule into my head.
Not questioning that the gap is the same length for dance and for men.
Karen-W
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Are you daft?
Look at the SCHEDULE and tell me how it is that you believe Ilia is LESS likely to get worn out doing 4 programs than either Amber or Alysa.
Feb 6th - TE Dance RD, Pairs SP & Women's SP
Feb 7th - TE Men's SP & Dance FD
Feb 8th - TE Pairs FS, Women's FS & Men's FS
Feb 9th - Ice Dance RD
Feb 10th - Men's SP
Feb 11th - Ice Dance FD
Feb 13th - Men's FS
Feb 15th - Pairs SP
Feb 16th - Pairs FS
Feb 17th - Women's SP
Feb 19th - Women's FS
So, let's say the women are split... Alysa skates on Feb 6th and has 10 days off before she has to compete again in the Women's SP & 12 days before the Women's FS; Amber skates on Feb 8th and has 8 days off before she has to compete again in the Women's SP & 10 days off before the Women's FS.
Meanwhile, you've got Ilia skating on Feb 7th & 8th, then he gets 1 day off before he competes again in the Men's SP with a whopping 4 days before the Men's FS. He has less than ONE-QUARTER of the recovery time that you're giving Amber & Alysa between the TE Men's FS and the Men's SP and he has less than HALF of the recovery time before the Men's FS that you're giving Amber & Alysa.
Frankly, I think if the USFS decides to go all-in on defending the TE gold then none of the disciplines will be split.
I think we mean the same thing and are saying it differently. If they don't split, for both C&B and Ilia, there would be roughly 48 hours between when they do their last skate in the TE and when they do their first skate in the individual event. That is not a lot.
I really wish that Amber could do the TE free skate because I think she's done much more to earn it than some of the American skaters who will be in the team event and because I think that the team event results would be better for the American team if the women split instead of the men. But, I totally understand why that isn't likely to happen.
AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)
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IMO …. schedule shmedule.
I’ll say it here…. if I was doing it from a place of logic, I would split women and pairs for the USA.
Total opposite of what most people think.
Or just women.
I think it’s more likely for women and dance to be split.
I’m doing it from logic, Ilia is a machine.. he could compete six times and be fine. Especially after he missed out on the last Olympics, he should be red-ta-go.
I’m not doing this from a place of who gets to get nine hours of sleep on the ninth and who gets to sleep 11 hours on the night of the 10th, I’m doing it from a place of logic in my opinion. Split the comparables or don’t split if you don’t need to.
I’m not factoring in who gets a week off and gets to go sightseeing and shopping for dolce and Gabbana in Milano for a week. I’m doing it by strengths, and who can handle what.
Ilia does these programs every single day…. five or six times right now. He did not even go to four continents, none of them did. Unlike the Europeans that go and do it instead of sending their reserve team. If they took all this time out to rest and train I don’t have reservations in my opinion that Ilia and ChoBat can handle it. They are very seasoned pros and very well trained.
I’ll say it here…. if I was doing it from a place of logic, I would split women and pairs for the USA.
Total opposite of what most people think.
Or just women.
I think it’s more likely for women and dance to be split.
I’m doing it from logic, Ilia is a machine.. he could compete six times and be fine. Especially after he missed out on the last Olympics, he should be red-ta-go.
I’m not doing this from a place of who gets to get nine hours of sleep on the ninth and who gets to sleep 11 hours on the night of the 10th, I’m doing it from a place of logic in my opinion. Split the comparables or don’t split if you don’t need to.
I’m not factoring in who gets a week off and gets to go sightseeing and shopping for dolce and Gabbana in Milano for a week. I’m doing it by strengths, and who can handle what.
Ilia does these programs every single day…. five or six times right now. He did not even go to four continents, none of them did. Unlike the Europeans that go and do it instead of sending their reserve team. If they took all this time out to rest and train I don’t have reservations in my opinion that Ilia and ChoBat can handle it. They are very seasoned pros and very well trained.
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