2025-26 U.S. Ice Dance News, Updates & Discussion - Backstreet Boys & Spice Girls

[BittyBug]

China, Poland, and the UK will make the TE, but not the final. I think on paper, we're assuming that JPN and USA will be contending for the gold, ITA and GEO will be contending for the bronze, and that FRA and CAN are contending for the last spot in the Final, mostly based on a deficit for FRA in the Pairs event being greater than points gaps between Canadian Men's and Women's...

Who would have ever anticipated that GEO would become so competitive.

 

[Debbie S]

Who would have ever anticipated that GEO would become so competitive.

Given that the skaters are all Russian imports (except maybe Egadze?) it wasn't hard to see it coming.

If the war ends and Russians are allowed back in the ISU next season, I wonder if the current 'Georgians' will stay Georgian. Gubanova probably...she's no Eteri-bot...but I wouldn't be surprised if pairs and dance jumped ship back to the motherland.

ETA: Ooops, didn't realize M/B switched before 2022. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Davis/Smolkin 'return' to Russia.

 

[tony]

Given that the skaters are all Russian imports (except maybe Egadze?) it wasn't hard to see it coming.

If the war ends and Russians are allowed back in the ISU next season, I wonder if the current 'Georgians' will stay Georgian. Gubanova probably...she's no Eteri-bot...but I wouldn't be surprised if pairs and dance jumped ship back to the motherland.

Metelkina and Berulava both were skating for Georgia before the ban even happened, so I don’t see why they’d switch.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don't see Davis/Smolkin returning to skate for Russia either.

 

[BittyBug]

Given that the skaters are all Russian imports (except maybe Egadze?) it wasn't hard to see it coming.

Russians have been dispersing to represent former Soviet countries since the collapse of the USSR, and there are Russian-born athletes representing many countries other than Georgia (Poland, Germany and Armenia, for example). But none of those countries has (yet) emerged as a skating powerhouse, whereas Georgia has, so I don't think it's as simple as Russian skaters switching countries.

 

[PRlady]

Russians have been dispersing to represent former Soviet countries since the collapse of the USSR, and there are Russian-born athletes representing many countries other than Georgia (Poland, Germany and Armenia, for example). But none of those countries has (yet) emerged as a skating powerhouse, whereas Georgia has, so I don't think it's as simple as Russian skaters switching countries.

But Georgian teams still have Russian coaches. Which, it pains me to admit, is a lot of skill even if methods are questionable.

 

[kwanfan1818]

So do Nagaoka/Morigumi and Hase/Volodin.

 

[Debbie S]

Obviously being Russian doesn't guarantee a TE medal. It depends on which skaters switch. But most Russians who switched to other countries hadn't been to the Olys. While Gubanova wouldn't have made the Olys competing against Eteri-bots, she was still a very good skater. Egadze is native Georgian (i think?) but has access to Russian facilities and a top coach.

 

[Karen-W]

Gubanova is likely to retire after this season or at least take a break. She's married now & likely wants to start a family like a lot of her Russian age-peers have done in the last year.

I can't see DavSmo switching back to Russia. They're making a nice move up the standings and have had good improvement at IAM. They will be contending for Euros & GP medals in the next cycle along with LopBri, SmaDie (if they don't retire), the Mrazeks and DemLeM. They'd lose that positioning and all momentum they've built by sitting out ANOTHER season just to switch back to Russia and fight for supremacy there.

As far as the TE event - KOR is the other country qualified, so LimQuan will be in the RD equation somewhere, though not the FD.

I'd forgotten that the USFS usually takes into account both the most immediate past Worlds' results AND World Standings when deciding who gets a TE assignment for the split disciplines. That could mean that CarPon are in for the TE FD regardless of whether ZingKol beat them at Nats. If ZingKol want the TE FD assignment, they should be hoping that GreenP beat CarPon for the 3rd spot.

@kwanfan1818 - couple of things about your WS projections -

1) CarPon are entered for Golden Spin, so they're going to pick up 54-81 incremental points by replacing the 189 from 2023-24 depending on whether they finish 2nd or 3rd in Zagreb (presuming that GuigFab win, CarPon will be battling DemLeM for 2nd/3rd).

2) GPF points replace GP points, so ZingKol are only able to pick up incremental points. They'll add a minimum of 210 (472 would replace the 262 they have from either of their GPs last season). SmaDie should overtake them after Euros - both teams will pick up some incremental points at Tallinn Trophy this coming week and drop their lower points from 2023-24 like CarPon will do with Golden Spin; but SmaDie should easily pick up at least 426 incremental points at Euros which is more than ZingKol will likely pick up at the GPF. Neither DavSmo nor TurkVers are going to pick up enough incremental points at Euros to pass ZingKol because they have higher points from their 2024 ISU Championships than SmaDie and they're both approximately 300 points behind ZingKol as it is.

I don't think there's any way, even with Euros points incoming, that the teams in the WS top 10 are going to be displaced before the Olympics, with the exception of LajLag, who don't have any upcoming Challengers where they can pick up pure points (they only have Budapest Trophy and 1 IC from 2023-24 in the IC points boxes) - but even LajLag are probably safe in the WS top 10 for the Olympics because, again, incremental points from Euros for teams like DavSmo and TurkVers probably won't be sufficient to displace them.

 

[kwanfan1818]

So do

) GPF points replace GP points, so ZingKol are only able to pick up incremental points.

Argh, I'd forgotten that, since they're in a separate column. Thank you for the correction on this and incremental championship points from Euros. That's good news for Lajoie/Lagha.

ETA: No more posting numbers before breakfast

 

[Tinycities]

I think the Olympic selection will be more of a battle than some are currently expecting, just a hunch.

I’m noticing the USFS social media is barely even highlighting ZingKol, a passing mention that they qualified for the GPF or the bronze at Finlandia. I listened to the USFS ringside podcast this am, and they also barely mentioned them and I was expecting more on the feds own recap pod on the event. It was only a mention on when the overall standings were mentioned in conjunction with teams from other Feds. They spent 5x as long on Christina Carreira citizenship.

Just gives me the vibes that I still think Carreira/Ponomarenko or Green Parsons will beat them out at Nationals.

 

[Rhumba d’Amour]

I think the Olympic selection will be more of a battle than some are currently expecting, just a hunch.

I’m noticing the USFS social media is barely even highlighting ZingKol, a passing mention that they qualified for the GPF or the bronze at Finlandia. I listened to the USFS ringside podcast this am, and they also barely mentioned them and I was expecting more on the feds own recap pod on the event. It was only a mention on when the overall standings were mentioned in conjunction with teams from other Feds. They spent 5x as long on Christina Carreira citizenship.

Just gives me the vibes that I still think Carreira/Ponomarenko or Green Parsons will beat them out at Nationals.

Hope springs eternal. Of all the top US teams, I think Green & Parsons are the most interesting, the most creative, and this year, they also have the best set of programs. I’d love to see them at the Olympics.

The Browns have a fabulous FD, but their RD feels ten minutes long and makes me exhausted just watching it.

 

[Sylvia]

Maybe someone can start a thread for discussing all things related to the 2026 Olympic Team event?

Not surprisingly, Zingas/Kolesnik are noted as "(withdrawn 11/23)" from Tallinn Trophy on USFS' International Assignments page.

 

[Debbie S]

According to the Skating Scores tabulation (also posted by TanithandBenFan in Athlete Selection thread), the top 3 of the contenders are CPom, Z/K, and C/B (Wolf/T are 3rd, likely b/c they did 2 Challengers). I love Green/P (along with Z/K) and want them to go, but it's looking likely that the Oly team will be those 3 teams. Whether Z/K finish 2nd or 3rd (ahead or behind CPom) probably won't matter for team selection. I think the only way the judges will put Green/P ahead of Z/K is if Z/K make a major error (please skate clean, everyone!).

Based on scores so far this seaso , I think Z/K are the better choice for the 2nd team in the TE, but USFS may choose to go with their ranking or the world standings and use CPom.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

I agree with @Debbie S. My heart is going to be shredded either way because I love both G/P and Z/K, but Z/K have made a very compelling case for themselves so far this season. And they were a minuscule amount of points from the World team last season. G/P just haven’t looked as locked in this season. CPom’s results have been disappointing but I think they’ll still get a spot.

 

[ice coverage]

I think the Olympic selection will be more of a battle than some are currently expecting, just a hunch.

... I listened to the USFS ringside podcast this am, and they also barely mentioned [Zingas/Kolesnik] and I was expecting more on the feds own recap pod on the event. It was only a mention on when the overall standings were mentioned in conjunction with teams from other Feds. They spent 5x as long on Christina Carreira citizenship....

I am not counting any chickens for Olympic selection before they hatch, but as for the USFS podcast, I think you must have missed some of McCarvel's comments about Zingas/Kolesnik:

"The surprise though of the season really: Emilea Zingas and Vadym Kolesnik. They won a medal in Finland that assured them a Grand Prix Final spot. That is performance under pressure, guys."​

Plus later: "And Emilea Zingas and Vadym Kolesnik. I just got to give them a shout-out because they were clutch this past weekend at Finlandia Trophy. Needed the bronze medal, got the bronze medal, their first Grand Prix Final."​

When McCarvel (rightfully) made note of Carreira's citizenship, he said:

"Now, good news for Christina Carreira, now officially an American. The announcement coming on social media this past week, Christina holding her passport! Big smiles for her and Anthony Ponomarenko."​

Less time than what McCarvel spent on speaking of Z/K.

Anyway ... I found NBC's pairs and dance choices interesting for their Finlandia recap show.
NBC showed the free skates of the top three pairs. Understandable that they wanted to show Efimova/Mitrofanov and Kam/O'Shea, but NBC also made time to show Hase/Volodin.
Whereas NBC showed Zingas/Kolesnik's free dance, and no other dance. My take (FWIW) was that NBC wanted to be sure to feature Z/K's bronze medal and advancement to GPF, although it did not make time for the top two dance teams.

 

[clairecloutier]

Notable: After this weekend, the U.S. has nine different ice dance teams in the Top 25 season's-best list so far. Of our teams that competed on the Grand Prix, only one is not in the top 25 (Neset/Markelov). I think we should take a moment to celebrate this--it's really quite an achievement IMO!

 

[kwanfan1818]

According to the Runthrough podcast 99, where they interviewed Jason Dillon, at first it sounded like “strongest (Olympic) team at the time” typical wormy language, but he ended with saying that the team would be selected numerically. He’d previously stated that the events started with US Nats 2015 and 2025 Championships, and he also said the decision from placements over scores could have gone either way and spoke about Levito’s placement vs. her high score.

If you have Apple Podcasts, you can scroll to read his comments in the transcript. My phone won’t copy his comments to paste here.

He also made it clear that USOC was pushing for more transparency and clearer, unambiguous language.

 

[Karen-W]

He also made it clear that USOC was pushing for more transparency and clearer, unambiguous language.

It surprises me that the USOPC signed off on the much more ambiguous selection procedure the USFS has implemented during this Olympic cycle compared to the pretty straightforward tiered groups they had for the 2022 selection procedure.

 

[TwinnerA]

Not if you are talking solely about team event strategy. If you go by what would make the most sense for the team event absent any individual event consideration, it definitely would be the women splitting because of their depth.

Alysa came in first at worlds, with Isabeau fourth and Amber fifth (beaten only by Japanese skaters). There are two American women (Amber and Alysa) going to the GPF, and Isabeau is the first alternate and probably would have qualified if she had been assigned to any GP other than China (where she was beaten by three Japanese women). The only women with season's best scores above Amber, Alysa, and Isabeau are Japanese; any of these three Americans would have a very good chance of finishing no lower than second in the TE women's SP or FP. The women are the strongest case for splitting. No other discipline has as much likelihood of doing this well with splitting.

But, given the rules and the requirement of letting the skaters with the best chance of individually medaling choose to split, it's not that simple. Ilia has been dominant, and it would be shocking if he did not medal. He gets to choose.

C&B are not just multi-time World Champions, but won both their GPs this season. Even if this is not their best season and even if they are not gold medal favorites, they still have a very high chance of medaling. Yes, Alysa won Worlds, but not multiple Worlds, and the Japanese women are fierce, with several of them having higher season's best than her. Amber won the GP Final, but has never medaled at Worlds, and the Japanese women are fierce. Isabeau medaled at Worlds a couple of years ago, but she finished fourth the other two times she competed at words, and again the Japanese women are fierce. I do think that there is a decent chance of an American woman medaling at the Olympics, but not as high as C&B's chances.

It is a bummer that the American women as a whole have been doing so well but only one will get to be in the TE, while skaters who have not done as well will be in the TE. But, I get the logic.

Isabeau was 4th at Grand Prix de France behind Ami, Kaori and Rion, not Cup of China.