2019 US Pairs Nationals Podium Poll

[Spiralgraph]

A bit off topic but is anyone going to start a poll for US dance? Unless I missed it.. Granted the top two may not be much of a surprise if they skate well, but that third spot isn't as definite. Anybody willing to begin that thread? I've never started a poll so I'm not sure how to proceed. Thanks!

 

[PairSkater12345]

I recently saw a vid of C/L skating at the galleria ice show. He had her in a lift. Wow. Looks promising for nationals. Just hope she isn't rushing it.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I recently saw a vid of C/L skating at the galleria ice show. He had her in a lift. Wow. Looks promising for nationals. Just hope she isn't rushing it.

Well her whole IG is as if nothing ever happened.

 

[Sylvia]

I recently saw a vid of C/L skating at the galleria ice show. He had her in a lift.

Fan cam filmed from above of Cain/LeDuc & Keegan Messing (mislabeled Knierims & Patrick Chan ): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MexOmF_mio

A bit off topic but is anyone going to start a poll for US dance?

I did here: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/threads/2019-us-ice-dance-nationals-podium-poll.105010/

 

[chachacha]

Well her whole IG is as if nothing ever happened.

I’m sure she is fine and yes the fall was horrible, but clearly she was not injured and the neck brace was precautionary. If she was injured she would not be on the ice so soon and from what I hear they have been training as normal. I think the fall looked terrible but if she had really been knocked out with a head injury she would not be cleared to skate. So I’m sure they will be looking to fight for that world spot at nationals

 

[PairSkater12345]

I'm not convinced she is fine. She was unconscious for sure. It's a matter of how much risk you want to take as a competitor. This is more vid than I saw. Their lift was very cautious (not the same lift with one skate by tim) and a simple dismount. I do hope they skate but I'm going to watch with a deep breath if they do.

 

[aftershocks]

After that K/O are better in every other category at the moment.
Their lifts are higher quality and more complex [than the Knierims'. And K/O's] jumps are more consistent.

K/O are known to be more consistent on their jumps. But the Knierims have improved some aspects of their skating during their short time with Aliona, and with the work of their choreographer, Benoit Richaud. I really don't see how you think K/O's lifts are of a better quality than the Knierims. I think it's probably a wash in that category with the Knierims possibly having the edge more-so than K/O. Plus the Knierims definitely have a boffo 3-twist, and more explosive power on their throws. The Knierims may also have a tad more speed than K/O, or it's a wash there too. Both teams have different styles and personalities. But there's really not a huge amount separating them, aside from K/O's reputation for consistency vs the Knierims' explosive power, and hugely better 3-twist (in addition to probably a bit more appearances in front of international judges), and having previously held the highest placement at Worlds among current U.S. pairs teams.

I realize that Tarah and Danny are slowly trying to improve their 3-twist under Sappenfield, but they aren't there yet. I'm not really rooting for one team over the other. Neither have been my top favorites over the years, but I do like both teams, and I will be happy for either. The main thing is being sure the strongest team is sent in order to get back two spots. And so that means being strong mentally too!

What is hampering the Knierims has been their confidence ever since coming back from Alexa's illness and surgery. I also think their confidence was likely impacted by negative comparisons and expectations made by fans in the lead-up to the Olympics. Alexa seemed a total wreck at Nationals under the pressure of wanting to win the spot on the team outright rather than being seen as losing Nationals and then being rewarded the spot. That scenario seemed to have worked on Alexa's pysche.

Putting that aside, what happened at 2018 Worlds was unfortunate. It's too bad that K/O weren't stronger physically in coming off their 4CCs win. Had K/O been healthy and able to attend Worlds along with the Knierims maybe they would have been able to make the cut and contribute toward the U.S. not losing a second pairs spot. Stellato/ Bartholomay are not to blame either, as they performed decently well in the sp in Milan, but were given short shrift and did not make the cut due to little fault of their own IMO. The biggest blame goes to the ISU for setting up the competition in such a limited way for pairs teams at Worlds when it has been such a deep field over the past several years.

 

[aftershocks]

K/O only had a 164.16 at NHK and 162.03 at Finlandia. Two of their four international scores are beneath the Aussies’ SB so on a bad day, they are certainly capable of being beneath the Aussies. So far, the 191 score is the outlier, not the ones in the 160’s.

True, but K/O have a way better fp than A/W and many other second-tier teams, as we saw at 2018 4CCs. A/W have great elements, but so far they have lacked consistency, and they really have to work on improving their connection and overall polish. K/O have a better connection and better choreographed programs at this point. It would all boil down to how each team delivered on a given day. But even then, with K/O being the more mature and expressive team, if both go clean, K/O should end up a cut above in some PCS categories. And Danny is one of the best pairs partners in the world.

Sometimes it's important to compare more than just stats.

Their lift was very cautious (not the same lift with one skate by tim) and a simple dismount.

True but look where they are skating... in a mall on a small ice surface, maneuvering around a large obstruction (barrier which holds a Xmas tree). I would expect them to be cautious and careful on their lifts in any case. But we'd need to see them in training and then in competition on a full ice surface to make definitive judgments about any effects of the fall on their performance quality.

They both seem strongminded and able to put what happened behind them, as long as Ashley is healthy and not suffering any physical effects. Hopefully, they have both had a chance to discuss possible psychological effects of the fall, and thereby counteract any unconscious negative thinking.

Fan cam filmed from above of Cain/LeDuc & Keegan Messing (mislabeled Knierims & Patrick Chan )

It surely must not have been a die-hard skating fan who posted this! Chris Knierim does not have a beard (or not exactly a full beard like Timothy). Even from a distance, C/L are fairly distinguishable from the Knierims. And Patrick Chan (who is retired) does not resemble Keegan Messing either.

 

[olympic]

K/O are known to be more consistent on their jumps. But the Knierims have improved some aspects of their skating during their short time with Aliona, and with the work of their choreographer, Benoit Richaud. I really don't see how you think K/O's lifts are of a better quality than the Knierims. I think it's probably a wash in that category with the Knierims possibly having the edge more-so than K/O. Plus the Knierims definitely have a boffo 3-twist, and more explosive power on their throws. The Knierims may also have a tad more speed than K/O, or it's a wash there too. Both teams have different styles and personalities. But there's really not a huge amount separating them, aside from K/O's reputation for consistency vs the Knierims' explosive power, and hugely better 3-twist (in addition to probably a bit more appearances in front of international judges), and having previously held the highest placement at Worlds among current U.S. pairs teams.

I realize that Tarah and Danny are slowly trying to improve their 3-twist under Sappenfield, but they aren't there yet. I'm not really rooting for one team over the other. Neither have been my top favorites over the years, but I do like both teams, and I will be happy for either. The main thing is being sure the strongest team is sent in order to get back two spots. And so that means being strong mentally too!

What is hampering the Knierims has been their confidence ever since coming back from Alexa's illness and surgery. I also think their confidence was likely impacted by negative comparisons and expectations made by fans in the lead-up to the Olympics. Alexa seemed a total wreck at Nationals under the pressure of wanting to win the spot on the team outright rather than being seen as losing Nationals and then being rewarded the spot. That scenario seemed to have worked on Alexa's pysche.

Putting that aside, what happened at 2018 Worlds was unfortunate. It's too bad that K/O weren't stronger physically in coming off their 4CCs win. Had K/O been healthy and able to attend Worlds along with the Knierims maybe they would have been able to make the cut and contribute toward the U.S. not losing a second pairs spot. Stellato/ Bartholomay are not to blame either, as they performed decently well in the sp in Milan, but were given short shrift and did not make the cut due to little fault of their own IMO. The biggest blame goes to the ISU for setting up the competition in such a limited way for pairs teams at Worlds when it has been such a deep field over the past several years.

I think like you, I have no dog in the hunt. I just want to see A TEAM break out and start to crush it when it counts but also consistently.

I appreciate the improvements by K/O, but I hope that becomes consistent and they forge ahead w/ Dalilah and really start to give those explosive elements a wow factor.

I want to see more consistency on jumps from K/K. I think they have had weaknesses to their skating long before Alexa's injury / illness: Chris was always a bit wooden while skating (but has gotten much better w/ Aljona), and they just could never lock down SBS jumps, and Alexa falls on throws more than she should for a top team.

I'm happy that Ash was not (apparently) seriously injured. I hope the horrific experience only made them stronger. I think they have a lot to offer, but she was a top singles skater and yet is the partner having problems landing SBS jumps.

 

[aftershocks]

^^ Yep, I agree with you. It's K/O who need to develop explosive power on their throws in addition to improving their 3-twist to a higher competitive level. I would imagine it will take them more time working with Dalilah before we will see major improvement from them in these areas. Although it's possible we might see more visible improvements from K/O at U.S. Nationals in January. K/O do have a tendency to build to a higher performance level over the course of a season.

K/K already have explosive power on throws, including their huge 3-twist. And as I mentioned, I think K/K's lifts are probably stronger than K/O's. Also, Denney/Frazier have excellent lifts, among the best in the world. In fact, there are teams today who have been copying a lift D/F first made famous when they won junior worlds nearly 6 years ago.

Chris is definitely smoother in his carriage over the ice. Something clicked for him working with Aliona and Benoit. Conversely, Alexa's problems with falling on sbs jumps have developed more noticeably over the past year. She used to be more solid than Chris on jumps. They were both slightly shaky on jumping passes in their immediate comeback from Alexa's surgery. But I think it's a bit more recently that Alexa has shown shaky confidence leading to surprising falls from her.

Alexa/Chris indeed have had inconsistencies and weaknesses in their skating prior to Alexa's injury. But they were also at a breakthrough point in their careers circa 2015 Worlds. Unfortunately, they didn't cross over successfully to top recognition, due to being unable to build on their 2015 Worlds showing where they placed 7th. They were in a position of being able to learn from their competitive mistakes of that season and apply what they learned to reach a new level, when the illness struck during spring and summer of 2016 (around the time of their wedding). A huge amount of momentum was lost to them, but Alexa surviving the serious health scare is the most important thing.

Despite their awkward split with Aliona, I think working with her has been a wonderful turnaround for the Knierims. Aliona and Benioit helped the Knierims forge more impactful style and polish to their skating (which was one of their areas of weakness).

Re C/L, Timothy was also formerly a strong singles skater. He made the switch to pairs only fairly early, while Ashley continued to compete in both singles and pairs into her senior debut. I'm not clear why Ashley has had a tendency to under-rotate her jumps. It's probably partly due to her adjusting to bodily changes as she's matured, coupled with the extreme difficulty involved in matching rhythm and timing with a partner, contrasted to not having to jump in unison as a singles skater.

 

[her grace]

It would all boil down to how each team delivered on a given day. But even then, with K/O being the more mature and expressive team, if both go clean, K/O should end up a cut above in some PCS categories.

You missed my point. Of course, if both went clean, K/O would beat A/W. My point was if A/W matched their SB and K/O matched their Season Worst, A/W could beat them.

Hopefully, whichever American team goes to worlds will be "on" and this will all be a moot point.

 

[aftershocks]

My point was if A/W matched their SB and K/O matched their Season Worst, A/W could beat them.

We'll see. It's a crapshoot, and judging can be unpredictable. That's why skaters can only focus on putting out their best effort. A/W seem to be in a bit of a slump/ experiencing growing pains at the moment. They changed coaches over the off-season (now working with Gauthier/Marcotte), so there might be a period of adjustment there too. I would expect they can improve under G/M over the next few years.

Some of A/W's weaknesses have been coming to the fore recently, e.g., Katia needs to project more, and they both need to connect more with each other and the audience. They also need to improve the performance value of their programs. Perhaps aesthetic improvements for A/W will come with maturity. They are a good, well-respected team. Harley has more flair and presence right now than Katia, but they both lack impact stylistically. All teams have to explore what sets them apart and work their mojo on a consistent basis.

In any case, expecting or contemplating one team matching season's worst and another matching season's best shows which team you prefer.