2019 US Pairs Nationals Podium Poll

[haribobo]

I mean...

 

[blue_idealist]

I think Kayne/O'Shea will take the title, based on what we've seen so far.

 

[olympic]

In reverse of the ladies, the podium is easier to predict but the Worlds team is harder:

Knierims, K/O and C/L should podium, but the competition for the spot at Worlds is going to be a slugfest between Knierims and K/O. Knierims should have this based on their skills but they have been wobbly all year and I'm not sure the problem is getting fixed. I think C/L aren't a true factor for the team. We will see if the horrific fall at GS changed anything.

 

[PairSkater12345]

In reverse of the ladies, the podium is easier to predict but the Worlds team is harder:

Knierims, K/O and C/L should podium, but the competition for the spot at Worlds is going to be a slugfest between Knierims and K/O. Knierims should have this based on their skills but they have been wobbly all year and I'm not sure the problem is getting fixed. I think C/L aren't a true factor for the team. We will see if the horrific fall at GS changed anything.

If C/L didn't have the injury I believe the team would be in the thick of it. ITA. The Knierims do not have better over all skills. The twist is far better for the knierims and maybe the BoDs in the short. After that K/O are better in every other category at the moment.
Their lifts are higher quality and more complex. The jumps are more consistent. The throws are more consistent. Other than Maybe Le Duc on a good day, Oshea has the best skating skills in us pairs. It's going to b fun to watch nationals.

 

[blue_idealist]

In reverse of the ladies, the podium is easier to predict but the Worlds team is harder:

Knierims, K/O and C/L should podium, but the competition for the spot at Worlds is going to be a slugfest between Knierims and K/O. Knierims should have this based on their skills but they have been wobbly all year and I'm not sure the problem is getting fixed. I think C/L aren't a true factor for the team. We will see if the horrific fall at GS changed anything.

I think they'll send K/O if they win, given the Knierims' fairly dismal season so far.

 

[olympic]

If C/L didn't have the injury I believe the team would be in the thick of it. ITA. The Knierims do not have better over all skills. The twist is far better for the knierims and maybe the BoDs in the short. After that K/O are better in every other category at the moment.
Their lifts are higher quality and more complex. The jumps are more consistent. The throws are more consistent. Other than Maybe Le Duc on a good day, Oshea has the best skating skills in us pairs. It's going to b fun to watch nationals.

I would argue that Knierims have better SS; they move faster and their explosive elements are normally better. While Alexa has been hit or miss on the throws, but they get more height and distance. I do agree that the SBS jumps continue to bedevil Knierims, but for some reason, C/L have not been executing the SBS jumps cleanly, which should be a money element for them.

I think they'll send K/O if they win, given the Knierims' fairly dismal season so far.

I agree. IMO, the spot will go to whoever wins Nationals.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

After that K/O are better in every other category at the moment.

I would say the SBS spin and jumps but only those 2 elements (well, when Tarah lands her jumps, or doesn't double or single out.... K&O have jump mkistakes almost as equally just not as equally memorable.)

Throws...Knierims
Lifts... Knierims
Combo spin... Knierims HANDS DOWN
Death Spiral.. Knierims
Choreo sequence..neither
Steps... equal

Twist.. Knierims HANDS DOWN

Knierims 5, K&O 2

Bonus: Speed... Knierims

Bonus 2: Even with Knierims jump falls they make up points in other elements. K&O SB is like a whole fraction of a point off The Knierims. In overall Bs and GPs The Knierims have the most comps with higher point totals.

 

[PairSkater12345]

Candidly before the C/L injury I believe the team would have finished second behind K/O. Knierims speed is not better than K/O and their artistic talents aren't in the same league of C/L or K/O. K/O started the season slow as they have done the last two seasons as they didn't want injuries and finished strong. K/O have the higher Grand Prix score as well. I'm looking for them to win. I hope C/L skates and does well.

 

[olympic]

Quite frankly, I'd jump up and down if any 1 US pair broke through and outperformed expectations when it counts most

 

[PairSkater12345]

ITA. Winning three GP medals might be a sign.

 

[aftershocks]

If K/O have improved like they usually do to be very strong at Nationals, then they can definitely threaten for the title. However, this year, I think the Knierims have two excellent programs (which they haven't always had), and Aliona with the help of choreographer Benoit Richaud, has definitely helped Alexa & Chris redefine themselves. The only problem has been a rough start this sason due to a bit of instability with adjusting to location and coaching changes. Seemingly, it's Alexa's confidence that has taken more of a hit than Chris'.

The dynamic between the Knierims and their new coaches seems uncertain, based on views of Sand with them in the kiss 'n cry. However, the programs are good with a bit of edge, and they still have explosive elements. So if they've been able to improve since their last competition, I'm not counting them out to win another U.S. title. The international judges do appear to be willing to give the Knierims good marks if they can deliver.

IMO, K/O hav a stunning fp, but their sp is just okay. They are a good, competitive team, but they still need work on refining and polishing their overall skating, increasing their speed, and gaining more power, height and precision on their throw 3-twist.

I'm not certain what to think of Deanna/Nate at this point. If they are on, they are surely in the mix. But if Haven can manage to land her jumps, and if John Z has been able to help D/F figure things out, they have good programs and so they can definitely threaten for a podium placement.

I'm hopeful that Cain/LeDuc can come back strong after the troubles they experienced at Golden Spin. They have good programs this season, but they would need to go clean in both programs to be in strong, competitive position.

Calalang/Johnson have looked very good for a newly paired team, so it will be nice if they can make a strong bid for top five. For the rest, it will be interesting to see how much Digerness/Neudecker have improved, and whether Sarah Feng will be recovered from her injury reportedly sustained prior to the JGPF sp. I'm also eager to see how much Deardorff/Settlage have improved, and how Smith/Reiss are looking these days, and what's up with Pfund/Santillan, and the new pairing of Serafini/Tran.

 

[aftershocks]

Candidly before the C/L injury I believe the team would have finished second behind K/O. Knierims speed is not better than K/O and their artistic talents aren't in the same league of C/L or K/O. K/O started the season slow as they have done the last two seasons as they didn't want injuries and finished strong. K/O have the higher Grand Prix score as well. I'm looking for them to win. I hope C/L skates and does well.

I'm actually not so sure that K/O have better speed than the Knierims. In fact, the Knierims are showing a bit more style and substance with their new programs, and their speed is not bad, though it could be increased. I believe C/L are the best performers, but they are not always consistent on their elements, despite having good jump content. The Knierims and Denney/Frazier have the best lifts. In fact, D/F are the skaters who debuted in their Junior Worlds winning fp a lift position that every pairs lady seems to be doing a variation of these days.

In general, K/O have tended to be the most consistent U.S. pair team, but they haven't gotten off to a great start this season. However, they are known to be highly competitive, particularly at Nationals. It will be interesting to see how they perform under their new coach.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Knierims speed is not better than K/O and their artistic talents aren't in the same league of C/L or K/O

Guess you see it differenty than the international panel of judges, and also ANL. And thats cool.

Speed = oh HECK YES.

artistic value = Ill leave it to the eye of the beholder

I loves me some @aftershocks but I dont see on any of the ISU results pages where consistent would be a word to describe K&O. "On again off again injured" would be correct.

I think they are #TTW worthy because of their inconsistency.

 

[chachacha]

Guess you see it differenty than the international panel of judges, and also ANL. And thats cool.

Speed = oh HECK YES.

artistic value = Ill leave it to the eye of the beholder

I loves me some @aftershocks but I dont see on any of the ISU results pages where consistent would be a word to describe K&O. "On again off again injured" would be correct.

I think they are #TTW worthy because of their inconsistency.

I think that the Kneirims will earn the one spot. I think K/O had a nice Grand Prix outing in France, but they skated well and the field was not a strong field except for the French Team. So a nice good skate in a weak field gave them higher scores. But in my opinion I think when the Knierims are on, they can be in top 10 and have proven that before. I think they will win nationals and go to worlds and that’s the smart move.

K/O need to demonstrate some consistency over the next year and they are showing progress in there weaker elements by there move to Sappenfield.

I think the pairs event will be easy to predict. knierims Gold, K/O silver, Bronze and Pewter can be between Cain/LeDuc and Deanna and Nate. If Denney/Frazier are at Nationals they most likely will not be a threat for the podium based on there skating results this season thus far and nothing was shared as to why they withdrew from there 2nd Grand Prix so who knows what’s going on with that team. Is their an injury? Like there has been nothing shared to know if they will even be there, but regardless they won’t be a threat.

Wishing the best to all US Pair Teams who show up and skate at US Nationals.

 

[Karen-W]

LOL! This thread is hilarious because it's all predicated on "if" such-and-such a team skates clean, or "if" that other team can show some consistency, or "if" those skaters can come back strong after their last, rough outing. And that right there, in a nutshell, sums up US Pairs. There is a fair bit of talent and "if" they all skated clean, landed all their elements, and are healthy, then sure, the Knierems probably are the best we have, potentially even top 5 at Worlds. But, this is US Pairs so the notion that the Knierems are going to skate clean in both segments of the competition, or that any other US team will skate lights out at 100% of their capabilities through both segments of the competition is laughable.

I will say, though, that even with one bad segment in various competitions this year three teams seem to have separated themselves from the rest of the wildly inconsistent pack - the Knierems, K/O and C/L. Whichever of those three teams skates the best at Nationals is going to earn that Worlds spot. Before the bizarre meltdown at Golden Spin, C/L's TES was tracking ahead of the Knierems and I think they would have beaten them for the silver medal or possibly won. I just don't think the Knierems have demonstrated that they are reliable enough to warrant any sort of cushion should they falter and I don't think the USFSA cares all that much who of those three teams gets sent. It's going to be a crapshoot to make top 10 at Worlds, whichever team is sent and all of them have proven, in spectacularly bad fashion, that they not Jack Moseley's "go-to-girl" or "go-to-guy" when the pressure is on.

As far as the pewter medal goes - again, it's anyone's guess. S-D/B nor D/F have really stepped up their game this fall and that leaves the door wide open for any number of teams. Timlen/Highgate-Brutman had a good skate at Eastern Sectionals, looking at the detailed judges scores and seem to have some decent content, so I picked them as my darkhorse, this is US Pairs where ANYTHING can happen, surprise pewter medalists but that medal could just as easily go to a team like Serafini/Tran or pretty much any of the other newer teams that have formed in the last year and a half.

 

[Spiralgraph]

^^^ I mostly agree, but I prefer saying disheartening rather than laughable. US pairs is in a mess to put it kindly and one good team isn't going to help the perception of US teams as a whole. Especially when all our top teams have been inconsistent. I'll consider it a miracle if even one of our top teams skates clean in both programs at Nationals. I'll hope for really good skates, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[haribobo]

How can you deem something you haven't seen a mess? Half of the teams on the roster haven't really been seen at all this season- sure that is not a great sign but let us see what happens at Nationals. A bit perplexed at why more teams weren't assigned internationally although some were just new and/or injured. Sure the top teams haven't been competing for world medals, but maybe we don't actually know who our top teams are right now...

That being said, I am very interested to see how next season goes with US Pairs Final during Sectionals- at least then you get a real competition among all the unseen teams and we aren't in a complete void about who is looking good in pairs between November and January when Nationals happens. The logical next step would be to assign the top teams from the US Pairs Final to Zagreb to gain a SB, but not sure USFS will be forward-thinking enough to realize this...let's see...

 

[PairSkater12345]

^^^ I mostly agree, but I prefer saying disheartening rather than laughable. US pairs is in a mess to put it kindly and one good team isn't going to help the perception of US teams as a whole. Especially when all our top teams have been inconsistent. I'll consider it a miracle if even one of our top teams skates clean in both programs at Nationals. I'll hope for really good skates, but I'm not holding my breath.

Spiralgraph, Candidly your perspective is disheartening. Out teams earned three medals in GP's this year. A very promising sign. Injuries have plagued our competitors and they are on the rebound and improving at a great pace. I would suggest that you consider the athletes when you make such disparaging comments like "disheartening". These amazing athletes dedicate their lives to this sport, postpone careers, their families endure sacrifices to go all in on the sport they love. Don't criticize people with amazing dedication and determination.

 

[Spiralgraph]

Pairskater12345, I am well aware that three different USA teams won medals on the grand prix this season. But I still believe it's disheartening that our pairs have not achieved much success at the world championships these last few years. And now every one of our top teams,
K/O, SK/K; C/L D/F have sustained injuries/illnesses that hampered them and their progress. Only S/B have avoided injuries. That to me is disheartening, and unfortunate because had our teams competed at full strength, I believe their standings would have been higher as a whole, perhaps one team managing a top ten finish while the second team just outside of it.

As things stand now SK/K are 15th in the world, which is below their capabilities. I don't doubt the commitment or work ethic of any of our pairs but something in this dynamic has to change. The Knierims tried with Alyona as a coach and I'm disappointed it didn't work out. Some posters here have written that USA figure skating has to pay more attention to pairs and pour more resources into this discipline.
Pairs is still my favorite discipline and I'll get over my temporary gloominess and by Nationals I'll be appreciative and cheering on our pair teams, they're all the USA has.

 

[casken]

USFSA has spent too much time, money, PR, and political effort into the Knierims to just give up on them. I still think they'll have the edge at Nationals.

I don't think K&O snagging a medal in a GP event where the two younger, less experienced teams ahead of them completely imploded is as big of a factor as some may think.

 

[Karen-W]

USFSA has spent too much time, money, PR, and political effort into the Knierims to just give up on them. I still think they'll have the edge at Nationals.

I don't think K&O snagging a medal in a GP event where the two younger, less experienced teams ahead of them completely imploded is as big of a factor as some may think.

And what is your rationale for dismissing C/L, who beat the Knierems and won the bronze at SA?

While each of those three teams have won a medal on the GP this fall, it isn't as though the depth in pairs on the GP circuit has been all that deep, which is why a just-up-from-juniors Russian team managed to earn a spot in the GPF and why a couple of other just-up-from-juniors Russian teams also won medals at GP events. And, in fact, K/O were the 2nd alternates to the GPF, not the Knierems or C/L.

I'm just not seeing any reason why the USFSA judges are going to give an edge to the Knierems unless they go out there and either a) earn the spot themselves by skating up to their abilities or b) earn the spot by imploding less badly than the other teams should all of them skate as inconsistently as usual.

 

[casken]

And what is your rationale for dismissing C/L, who beat the Knierems and won the bronze at SA?

Yes C&L beat the Knierems when the Knierems had multiple falls (without the 2.00 deductions, C&L and K&K would have been basically tied in the FS, and probably ahead based on a bit higher PCS from not bombing.).

I'm not talking about a huge cushion that will prevent them from absorbing multiple falls, I'm just saying that if it's close between the Knierems and any other team, I still think it will go the Knierems. I have no problem acknowledging if I'm wrong about this if a close decision goes the other way. I'd *prefer* K&O win, tbh.

Also, Golden Spin happened.

 

[Karen-W]

Yes C&L beat the Knierems when the Knierems had multiple falls (without the 2.00 deductions, C&L and K&K would have been basically tied in the FS, and probably ahead based on a bit higher PCS from not bombing.).

I'm not talking about a huge cushion that will prevent them from absorbing multiple falls, I'm just saying that if it's close between the Knierems and any other team, I still think it will go the Knierems. I have no problem acknowledging if I'm wrong about this if a close decision goes the other way. I'd *prefer* K&O win, tbh.

Also, Golden Spin happened.

Sure, Golden Spin happened. Just like SA happened. Before their meltdown, C/L were ahead of the Knierems on TES and I tend to think C/L would have beaten the Knierems there. Which is kind of my point. Each of these teams have had at least one pretty good competition this fall, one competition where they managed to medal in spite of at least one subpar competition segment, and one competition that has been spectacularly bad (ie they should have medaled given the rest of the competition or they had issues in both segments - usually with jumps but it's hard to forget about aborted throw jumps, lifts gone wrong, or multiple falls, etc). I just don't think that the Knierems have done enough this fall or in the last season and a half (apart from one really clutch SP in the Team Event at the Olympics) to warrant any cushion, especially if the other team in question is K/O who have, recall, probably the best FP of the three teams. And then, we're getting into those "if"s again like skate order and how cleanly each team skates.

 

[Sylvia]

Knierim is the correct spelling. (Sorry, pet peeve of mine.)

ETA that the top 4 in the poll at this moment are, predictably:

Knierim/Knierim Votes: 66
Kayne/O'Shea Votes: 65
Cain/LeDuc Votes: 51
Stellato/Bartholomay Votes: 35

 

[PairSkater12345]

USFSA has spent too much time, money, PR, and political effort into the Knierims to just give up on them. I still think they'll have the edge at Nationals.

I don't think K&O snagging a medal in a GP event where the two younger, less experienced teams ahead of them completely imploded is as big of a factor as some may think.

I don't understand your comment about "snagging a medal" a silver medal second to the likely best pairs team in the world isn't exactly "snagging a medal" . Both teams you claim imploded are very talented and couldn't put two programs together, by the way the best teams in the world have done the same thing this year.

K/O TES was reasonably close to J/C. You could make the argument that any team placed in the money because some other team "imploded" or didn't do well. The fact is (and lots of people here like to point out International judging) K/O earned the highest total score out of US pairs teams this year and number 9 in the world this year. So "Snagging a medal" isn't very logical.

 

[her grace]

Spiralgraph, Candidly your perspective is disheartening. Out teams earned three medals in GP's this year. A very promising sign. Injuries have plagued our competitors and they are on the rebound and improving at a great pace.

Not sure how "promising" I find the pair medals on the GP. The U.S. had more entrants than any other country on the GP, USFS gets to host-pick one of the events, and the field was especially weak/great chance for lower-ranked teams to medal with China not sending 2 of its top 3 teams, 1 of the top 2 Italian teams retiring, Germans out, etc. If the American teams hadn't medaled in these circumstances, then it would be really dire. As it is, it's wonderful for the teams that they medaled, but based on the scores, the Americans are still in the range with the Austrians and North Koreans and aren't going to touch the French, the Russians, the Chinese, or the Italians. And if the world team athletes have a bad day, they'll be around, and possibly below, the Germans and Australians.

 

[chachacha]

Not sure how "promising" I find the pair medals on the GP. The U.S. had more entrants than any other country on the GP, USFS gets to host-pick one of the events, and the field was especially weak/great chance for lower-ranked teams to medal with China not sending 2 of its top 3 teams, 1 of the top 2 Italian teams retiring, Germans out, etc. If the American teams hadn't medaled in these circumstances, then it would be really dire. As it is, it's wonderful for the teams that they medaled, but based on the scores, the Americans are still in the range with the Austrians and North Koreans and aren't going to touch the French, the Russians, the Chinese, or the Italians. And if the world team athletes have a bad day, they'll be around, and possibly below, the Germans and Australians.

I agree!

 

[haribobo]

And if the world team athletes have a bad day, they'll be around, and possibly below, the Germans and Australians.

Sure anyone on a bad day could end up low. But K/O with a SB of 191 are not particularly close to A/W of AUS at this point (SB 166), who have had just a dismal year. I am not ready to assume the podium will be the top 4 in this poll, though. I also think more bright spots could possibly be seen if we saw anything of Serafini/Tran, Timlen/H-B, Smith/Reiss this season. Perhaps Deardorff/Settlage have improved from their rough early season outing. Deanna/Nate seem to be slowly rounding into form. And still have some hope for Haven/Brandon but this has been another tough season for them so far. But Knierims, well their jump problems seem to be so ingrained by now. It is often depressing to watch if they are the team you hope for to break through...now watch them land it all at Nationals since I said this.

 

[her grace]

Sure anyone on a bad day could end up low. But K/O with a SB of 191 are not particularly close to A/W of AUS at this point (SB 166), who have had just a dismal year.

K/O only had a 164.16 at NHK and 162.03 at Finlandia. Two of their four international scores are beneath the Aussies’ SB so on a bad day, they are certainly capable of being beneath the Aussies. So far, the 191 score is the outlier, not the ones in the 160’s.

 

[haribobo]

It has only been 90 seasons in a row that K/O start slow and improve by the 2nd half of the season...

I can't tell you why it is this way for them but this season they also had an early season coaching change.

So yea, disagree. Not in same league as 2018 A/W who scored a whopping 143 TOTAL at their Nationals. 87 points in the free. Not happy to see them struggling. But that is what is happening.