Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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That was the rumor late last month - that they wanted to do it in order to get Bruno out on the Olympic ice before the pairs comp.
Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)
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That's going to bury T&M - best case scenario 3rd place, but they could easily drop to 5th.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Like I said, 3rd-5th in the Team Pairs SP is wide open, IMO. Those are critical points that could determine the final medal standings.That's going to bury T&M - best case scenario 3rd place, but they could easily drop to 5th.
jlai
Question everything
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US ladies is 5th at best behind Canada, Russia, Japan, Italy, and perhaps Korea too. US pairs is 7th at best (behind China, Germany, Russia, Canada, France and Italy)
Russian dance - can't say, the top 8 teams haven't really been in the one competition for comparison purpose.
I can see Russian men being 4th - 5th.
Braulio
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OAR 5th in dance? how?
In the Short Dance Bobrova/Soloviev could be 4th or 3rd (if Papadakis/Cizeron don't show for France) and in the Free Dance with no french in the free skate they could end up 3rd or even 2nd
RoseRed
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P/C apparently said they'll do the TE in an interview, so you have CAN, FRA and USA 1-3. Considering C/L beat B/S in the SD in Russia, 5th is quite possible.
Bellanca
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I've been kicking this result around myself. If the U.S.A. skaters can deliver across the board, it is very possible they could win silver. R-OAR!!! has their ladies' discipline which is formidable, but then when you start breaking down the other disciplines, it’s neck and neck. Neither team can afford glaring errors.
I am assuming that P&C will skate the SD and FD, unless France decides not to try for a team medal. V&M want to skate both. Any of the US pair will place higher than B$S, and potentially C&L will too (no guarantee of the Italians placing higher). So the best for B&S would be 4th in the SD. In the FD, if the French make it, B&S cannot finish higher than 3rd. If the Italians make it, but the French don't, B&S will still be 3rd.
I get the feeling that I am forgetting something or someone in dance.
Bellanca
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That's the spirit! I'm kidding, kind of.
I don't see how Bradie Tennell can place lower than the Koreans. One of the others could make a mistake, and she could be 4th.
What is I.E.?
WHich assignments were bought and paid for? All I know is that one Russian pair and one Russian ice dance couple will not be competing.
IE=individual event. I refrain from comment on the rest.
skatingguy
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I.E. = individual event - we don't have good term for the separate disciplines when juxtaposing them with the Team Event.
I have not heard anything about assignments being bought and paid for so I don't know what this references.
Wyliefan
Ubering juniors against my will
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So could Karen, theoretically. At last year's Worlds, she beat Carolina, Maria, and both Japanese girls (though I grant you that Japan didn't have its strongest team there).
jlai
Question everything
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I doubt Karen would be in the team event.
The Koreans did quite well in 4cc and jgp while us ladies aren't so hot this year
Don't underestimate the Koreans
The Koreans did quite well in 4cc and jgp while us ladies aren't so hot this year
Don't underestimate the Koreans
VGThuy
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Crossposting from the Olympic Team Event thread in the Kiss & Cry:
I've tried to stay out of this argument because 1. I think all three dance teams have made a great argument to skate in the team event. And 2. Despite Adam's win over Nathan in the FS at SA, Adam is a risk.
But, let's be honest here . . .
2017 World Championships. We all know that Hubbell & Donohue and Chock & Bates are fully capable of a major screw up. Let's not pretend there would be no risk in putting up H&D or C&B. There is a risk for every U.S. dance team. It may not be as risky as throwing five quads, but every time you go out against the top dance teams in the World, you take a risk.
The dance FD results are very likely to come down to a battle with Bobrova & Soloviev.
We all know how the Shibs got to be ranked #1 in U.S. dance despite placing second at U.S. Nationals. The Shibs have been the most solid competitors among the U.S. dance teams over the past two seasons. They have won two World medals (three overall), two GPF medals, and have 4 GP wins over the past two years. Including a very significant head-to-head win over Bobrova & Soloviev in Russia this season. The Shibs have the highest season's best scores in the SD, FD, and overall for this year. They have Olympic experience and have medaled in every competition they have entered over the past two seasons. They had rough FD performances in two of their free skates this season so there is definitely risk for them in the free skate. But if you are looking for a dance team with the track record and the experience to compete under Olympic pressure during the final stretch of an Olympic Team event, the Shibs have made a solid argument for themselves over the past quadrennium. Their SB score from Skate America in the FD is 2.37 higher than Bobrova & Soloviev's from Europeans.
Hubbell & Donohue made an argument for themselves this season and kudos to them for doing so. They won U.S. Nationals, finished fourth at the GPF, and finished 2nd and 3rd in their GPs with deep fields. They've had a season of solid performances, and their trajectory this season has been all up. But that is also because they finished so far below their potential at last year's Worlds. If they had finished on the podium at Worlds, then their results at SC and the GPF would have been viewed as worrisome. They also lost the FD to Chock & Bates at both the GPF and Nationals. H&D have never been to an Olympic Games. Have never won a World medal. They could absolutely medal or finish above the other two U.S. teams in the dance event. However, Team USA is looking for someone to compete under Olympic pressure during the final stretch of an Olympic Team event. H&D have made a great argument against Adam, Bradie, Mirai. But they haven't done enough to make a clear argument against the two multi-winning World medalists that team USA has in the dance event. H&D have not gone up against Bobrova & Soloviev in the FD this season. H&D's SB in the free from Skate Canada is 0.65 above B&S's from Euros.
Chock & Bates have made a strong argument for themselves strategy-wise in the FD by outscoring the Shibs and Hubbell & Donohue during that portion of the event in the last two head-to-heads. They defeated Bobrova & Soloviev head-to-head at Cup of China and defeated Cappellini & Lanotte head-to-head at the GPF. However, C&B finished third among the U.S. dance teams both at Nationals and the GPF. They have two World medals and two GPF medals--both prior to last season. They had a lot of big mistakes last season, started this season off a bit slow after an injury, and look to be building solidly this year. They have Olympic experience. Still . . . if you are looking for someone to go up under Olympic pressure during the final stretch of an Olympic Team event . . . frankly, C&B's track record scares the crap out of me. C&B's season's best in the FD from the GPF is 0.09 above Bobrova & Soloviev's SB from Euros.
That's 9 hundredths of a point.
For anyone who thinks this Free Dance event is going to be a walk in the park for the U.S. dance teams, it's by no means a guaranteed win over Russia. B&S have a weak SD, but their FD is strong if they skate it well.
Kudos to the dancers for being willing to tackle it prior to the dance event. USFSA set their selection criteria & their strategy. We can argue about it and/or argue about how it plays out. But the U.S. has three excellent dance teams.
I've tried to stay out of this argument because 1. I think all three dance teams have made a great argument to skate in the team event. And 2. Despite Adam's win over Nathan in the FS at SA, Adam is a risk.
But, let's be honest here . . .
2017 World Championships. We all know that Hubbell & Donohue and Chock & Bates are fully capable of a major screw up. Let's not pretend there would be no risk in putting up H&D or C&B. There is a risk for every U.S. dance team. It may not be as risky as throwing five quads, but every time you go out against the top dance teams in the World, you take a risk.
The dance FD results are very likely to come down to a battle with Bobrova & Soloviev.
We all know how the Shibs got to be ranked #1 in U.S. dance despite placing second at U.S. Nationals. The Shibs have been the most solid competitors among the U.S. dance teams over the past two seasons. They have won two World medals (three overall), two GPF medals, and have 4 GP wins over the past two years. Including a very significant head-to-head win over Bobrova & Soloviev in Russia this season. The Shibs have the highest season's best scores in the SD, FD, and overall for this year. They have Olympic experience and have medaled in every competition they have entered over the past two seasons. They had rough FD performances in two of their free skates this season so there is definitely risk for them in the free skate. But if you are looking for a dance team with the track record and the experience to compete under Olympic pressure during the final stretch of an Olympic Team event, the Shibs have made a solid argument for themselves over the past quadrennium. Their SB score from Skate America in the FD is 2.37 higher than Bobrova & Soloviev's from Europeans.
Hubbell & Donohue made an argument for themselves this season and kudos to them for doing so. They won U.S. Nationals, finished fourth at the GPF, and finished 2nd and 3rd in their GPs with deep fields. They've had a season of solid performances, and their trajectory this season has been all up. But that is also because they finished so far below their potential at last year's Worlds. If they had finished on the podium at Worlds, then their results at SC and the GPF would have been viewed as worrisome. They also lost the FD to Chock & Bates at both the GPF and Nationals. H&D have never been to an Olympic Games. Have never won a World medal. They could absolutely medal or finish above the other two U.S. teams in the dance event. However, Team USA is looking for someone to compete under Olympic pressure during the final stretch of an Olympic Team event. H&D have made a great argument against Adam, Bradie, Mirai. But they haven't done enough to make a clear argument against the two multi-winning World medalists that team USA has in the dance event. H&D have not gone up against Bobrova & Soloviev in the FD this season. H&D's SB in the free from Skate Canada is 0.65 above B&S's from Euros.
Chock & Bates have made a strong argument for themselves strategy-wise in the FD by outscoring the Shibs and Hubbell & Donohue during that portion of the event in the last two head-to-heads. They defeated Bobrova & Soloviev head-to-head at Cup of China and defeated Cappellini & Lanotte head-to-head at the GPF. However, C&B finished third among the U.S. dance teams both at Nationals and the GPF. They have two World medals and two GPF medals--both prior to last season. They had a lot of big mistakes last season, started this season off a bit slow after an injury, and look to be building solidly this year. They have Olympic experience. Still . . . if you are looking for someone to go up under Olympic pressure during the final stretch of an Olympic Team event . . . frankly, C&B's track record scares the crap out of me. C&B's season's best in the FD from the GPF is 0.09 above Bobrova & Soloviev's SB from Euros.
That's 9 hundredths of a point.
For anyone who thinks this Free Dance event is going to be a walk in the park for the U.S. dance teams, it's by no means a guaranteed win over Russia. B&S have a weak SD, but their FD is strong if they skate it well.
Kudos to the dancers for being willing to tackle it prior to the dance event. USFSA set their selection criteria & their strategy. We can argue about it and/or argue about how it plays out. But the U.S. has three excellent dance teams.
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RoseRed
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It's a silly comment to make. The Shibs were always the obvious choice for the SD. I would think them doing both parts has more to do with the USFS wanting to split ladies for whatever reason than wanting to give the Shibs both.
Bellanca
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Thank you.
Coco
Rotating while Russian!
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This
Actually they are neck in neck. My calculations have them virtually tied. They both have winning teams in one area (dance and ladies), and two areas where they’re very strong. It’s a question if Patrick or Milhail can deliver. The winner in men’s may very well decide how gets the gold. Also both Kaetlyn and Gabby have to stay in the top two. That may be a challenge.
Coco
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With so many men attempting quads, the men's SP is wildly unpredictable. Wheeeee!
Bellanca
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I was really hoping Nathan would want to do both the SP and the FS. In dance, initially, I was for splitting the teams, but I think @Dobre's post highlights solid reasons why the Shibs should do both.
Canada will not be holding back, Russia intends to go for broke... so why shouldn't the U.S.A.? This is not the time to be getting all sentimental about who will get a medal and who will not. I know, it does sound harsh, but sports are not about placating or hand-holding. USFS should be smart, stealthy, calculating. They need to go for broke, not settle.
Canada will not be holding back, Russia intends to go for broke... so why shouldn't the U.S.A.? This is not the time to be getting all sentimental about who will get a medal and who will not. I know, it does sound harsh, but sports are not about placating or hand-holding. USFS should be smart, stealthy, calculating. They need to go for broke, not settle.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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To be perfectly honest, I don't think it's the worst idea to split the men with Rippon skating the FP. Rippon outscored all of the likely FP skaters on the GP this fall except Kolyada. That's assuming the rumors in the Japanese media are true and Tanaka will be skating the FP, and that the rumors that China isn't going to send Jin out there in both segments and wear him out are also true. Sure, Aliev/Kolyada and Chan have the potential to beat him if they skate well but... the Russian guys are wildly inconsistent and Chan is not the Chan of old. There is no concern about Adam placing above the Italian or French man, should one of those teams make the final instead of China. The worst that Adam will finish is 3rd, but he could easily win the FP given what we have heard leaking out about the entrants from various countries.
Patrick is more likely to deliver than Misha, who is wildly erratic.
I am sure one of the Canadian ladies can place second (or better) because there will be just one Russian lady to beat, unlike the individual event. The only spoiler would be Carolina or the Japanese lady, but I don't see Satoko beating Osmond or Daleman in the SP, with her tiny jumps. Will they use Kaori instead? It needs to be seen.
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skatingguy
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I think the Japanese are using Satoko Miyahara in the short program because she does tend to deliver good short programs and has been more vulnerable in the free skate.
Coco
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Bradie Tennell posted on her Facebook page that she's doing the short program in the team event.
Her post indicates that she's only doing the short program and not the free skate in the team event.
Her post indicates that she's only doing the short program and not the free skate in the team event.
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