Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[Bellanca]

I would not go with C&B - no offense. I would definitely choose H&D. The Shibs? That's a no-brainer.

 

[slipchuk]

Yes I see no reason to use C&B at this point, they clearly the U.S #3 now based on all results this season. And I highly doubt they will be used either.

They will either have the Shibs do the SD and H&D the FD (most likely) or have either team do both programs.

 

[slipchuk]

Yes I see no reason to use C&B at this point, they clearly the U.S #3 now based on all results this season. And I highly doubt they will be used either.

They will either have the Shibs do the SD and H&D the FD (most likely) or have either team do both programs.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

France:

Pairs- James & Cipres both programs
Men- Chafik Besseghier both programs
Dance- Papadakis & Cizeron both programs
Ladies- Mae Berenice Meite both programs

?

Did Laurine not make the team?

 

[skatingguy]

?

Did Laurine not make the team?

Too be determined - depending on what happens at Europeans.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Too be determined - depending on what happens at Europeans.

What were results of French Nats???

 

[skatingguy]

What were results of French Nats???

Meite was 1st, Laurine was 2rd - final determination to be made after the Europeans.

 

[Deleted member 19433]

Yes I see no reason to use C&B at this point, they clearly the U.S #3 now based on all results this season. And I highly doubt they will be used either.

The argument in favor of C&B for the free dance would be that they did beat H&D head-to-head in that segment at all 3 "Tier 1" competitions (2017 Worlds, 2017-18 GPF, and 2018 Nationals), and the Shibs at both GPF and Nationals. The margins were extremely small at the two competitions this season (0.20 at the GPF and 0.97 at Nationals), however, and H&D do have a slightly better SB score in the FD (by 0.56, although the Shibs' is even higher by 1.72).

 

[Debbie S]

The argument in favor of C&B for the free dance would be that they did beat H&D head-to-head in that segment at all 3 "Tier 1" competitions (2017 Worlds, 2017-18 GPF, and 2018 Nationals), and the Shibs at both GPF and Nationals.

C/B have scored higher than H/D in the FD at the comps in all 3 tiers where they have gone head to head (2017 Nationals and 4CC, 2016 GPF) and they also outscored the Shibs in the FD at last year's Nats. And C/B also repped Team USA at all the post-season made-for-TV team events this quad, including last year's, after the Shibs reportedly turned it down. I know those comps aren't a factor in any USFS decisions, but I feel like C/B's commitment to Team USA should be rewarded when it comes to a team event skaters actually want to participate in.

 

[Seerek]

Mae also had a "win" over Laurine by 17 points at Trophee de France.

 

[slipchuk]

I dont see the reigning U.S Champions being omitted from the Team Event completely for a team who was 3rd at Nationals and they have been beating all year. And given that they had the lowest PCS of the top 3 in both programs at Nationals C&B are no longer USFSA faves either (after having once been their pets). I will be very surprised if Chock & Bates are used in the Team Event at all. I will just leave it at that.

As for Mae and Laurine it hasnt yet been confirmed which is going or competing in the individual competition. I am just guessing it will end up being Mae though.

 

[Anyasnake]

The more we are getting closer to the games, the more I think everyone will put his best assets because 1.Team event needs some credibility 2.It's a first showing before individuals so if your competitor do better 5 days before you even compete, they can have the momentum (we know how much it counts in figure skating).

USA : Mirai+Bradie, Nathan + (?) (can't worn him out too much), SK/K, Shibs (SD) + H/D (FD). For FD at GPF H/D and C/B were practically tied but H/D made mistakes, plus they are national champions now.

Canada : All of their big guns, WeaPo is NOT going to do the team event otherwise they can say goodbye to gold before starting. Question mark : maybe a second pair team.

OAR : Kolyada, Evgenia (SP) + Alina (LP) = perfect combo , T/M + S/K (mayyybe but I'll count more on T/M for both), B/S. Question mark : how is S/B going to score against C/L at Euros ? (That could put them on the team)

France : One entry in every discipline except Dance. P/C will do the SD, then it depends if they qualify for the Free programs. If so, I don't know, but if they do, they can upset Canada for Team Gold. But if everyone manages to skate well, there is a shot at a medal IF P/C place 1st both times, J/C place 1st at least once, and then a bit of luck.

Japan : If I were them I'll split both Ladies and Men, the only question is, how ready does Hanyu feel ?

Italy : Carolina, Matteo, and then maybe they'll split Pairs and Dance (Pairs that's likely, but for Dance they won't do it if there is a chance at medalling ?).

 

[Deleted member 40371]

My prediction (SP)

Team Pairs Men ice dance ladies Total
1) OAR 8 8 6 10 32
2) CAN 7 6 9 9 31
3) USA 4 9 8 6 27
4) ITA 5 4 7 8 24
5) JPN 2 10 3 7 22 (17) tie breaker best two aggregated
6) CHN 9 7 2 4 22 (16)
7) FRA 6 1 10 5 22 (16)
8) GER 10 3 5 1 19
9) ISR 3 5 4 2 14
10) KOR 1 2 1 3 7

I am assuming that S/M are competing, but if they decide to skip, then it could be disadvantage to US in the medal race by slotting between OAR, CAN and ITA, this will give these team another relative advantage.

LP Score
Team Sp_score pairs ice dance men ladies Total
1) OAR 32 10 7 8 10 67
2) CAN 31 9 10 7 7 64
3) USA 27 7 9 9 6 58
4) ITA 24 8 8 6 9 55
5) JPN 22 6 6 10 8 52

I am assuming that teams are keeping their strongest team/athlete for LP. If CAN subs from V/M with W/P, they could finish last in this group, and lose the fight for gold with this substitution. Daleman could also finish behind Tennell, if that sub is made. I have being conservative with Chan because of his form, if he has a Great Nationals then Canada will be at an even better position.

For Russia, a sub from T/M to S/K could also be bad as S/K could lose to CAN in the present form. Russia should stick with Kolyada, B/S and T/M for both phases of the competition and just sub between Med and Zags for ladies.

Canada in my personal opinion should stick to D/R, V/M, Chan and Osmond for the best scoring potential.
USA's safe bet is to Sub between Shibs and H/D in Ice dance, on the rest stick with Chen, K/K and Tennell.
Italian can sub in pairs and score the same.

 

[zebobes]

Everyone keeps forgetting that each team can at MOST make TWO substitutions. That means for the US, two of the disciplines will have to be the same person/team. We know that pairs will be the same, but which of the other disciplines will be the same person/team?

Last time, Davis and White asked to do both competitions, and as the most senior team and most likely to get full points, they got their wish. This time, the dance teams are evenly matched, so they might go with two different dance teams. This time, the most "important" competitor in terms of medals is Nathan, and they will respect his decision in regards to whether or not he wants to do both short and long. If he does, he is the most likely to get full points for the team, and Bradie will probably do the short, and Mirai will do the long, especially since she has experience from Japan Open in only skating her long. If Nathan chooses to conserve his energy, then will Nathan just do the short, Rippon the free, and Bradie will have to do both segments, especially since the ladies have the most time to rest. As she is still relatively unknown to the judges, this could also help to build up her reputation before the ladies competition.

 

[Braulio]

You can only do two substitutions, so it's in the case of USA if they go Bradie+Mirai and Chen+Rippon they wont be able to do any more substitutions

I don't think how a second pair for Canada can do better than Duhamel/Radford??? they are right now the best shot at that discipline so with the tight race I don't think they can afford losing points in Pairs if not using only Meagan/Eric for pairs

 

[pinky166]

If Luba/Dylan make the Canadian team, I can see Canada using them in the Team Event, most likely the SP where there are less jumps and throws to potentially miss. I can see Osmond or V/M doing both programs so that the pairs can be swapped out.

 

[skatingguy]

If Canada is going to use two pairs I think it'll be Duhamel/Radford & Seguin/Bilodeau - Seguin/Bilodeau scored 130+ in their 2nd GP for the free skate and I think we'll outscore the other Canadian pairs team. I think they'd finish 2nd or 3rd in the pairs free skate - 1. Russia 2. China 3. Canada 4. US 5. Japan.

 

[pinky166]

If Canada is going to use two pairs I think it'll be Duhamel/Radford & Seguin/Bilodeau - Seguin/Bilodeau scored 130+ in their 2nd GP for the free skate and I think we'll outscore the other Canadian pairs team. I think they'd finish 2nd or 3rd in the pairs free skate - 1. Russia 2. China 3. Canada 4. US 5. Japan.

Seguin/Bilodeau might not even make the team and the same goes for Luba/Dylan so it’s all very up in the air at this point.

 

[Braulio]

Seguin/Bilodeau might not even make the team and the same goes for Luba/Dylan so it’s all very up in the air at this point.

Well if neither Lubov/Dylan or Julianne/Charlie make the team then who??? right now canadian pairs is not at their prime, not even Duhamel/Radford this 3 look almost a lock on the team

 

[slipchuk]

Lubov/Dylan, Julianne/Charlie, and Kristin/Michael are all fighting for the 2nd and 3rd spots. Kristin/Michael are probably the most likely to miss out, but they still could in theory bump either of the other two off the team, especialy as they seem improved this year and Lubov/Dylan imparticular are struggling thus far.

 

[Anyasnake]

From TSL : Bradie is going to do the SP and Mirai the FP at the Team Event

 

[Debbie S]

From TSL : Bradie is going to do the SP and Mirai the FP at the Team Event

Do they have a reliable source for this info or is it just their rambling/prediction? I assume it must be in their video recap of Nats, b/c I don't see it on their Twitter.

 

[Anyasnake]

Do they have a reliable source for this info or is it just their rambling/prediction? I assume it must be in their video recap of Nats, b/c I don't see it on their Twitter.

They said they got it from a source by text. That is of course very unofficial and it has to be verified but I'll be honest, they do have a lot of info and insiders. And it turns out to be true a great majority of the time.

 

[slipchuk]

If Tennell and Nagasu will split the team event, I guess that means Chen is probably going to do both programs. I hope that is not a bad idea if it turns out that way.

 

[Debbie S]

And given that they had the lowest PCS of the top 3 in both programs at Nationals C&B are no longer USFSA faves either (after having once been their pets).

For the sake of accuracy, their PCS in the FD was 2nd among the top 3.

If Tennell and Nagasu will split the team event, I guess that means Chen is probably going to do both programs. I hope that is not a bad idea if it turns out that way.

Or the Shibs are doing both programs. We'll see.

 

[Anyasnake]

If Tennell and Nagasu will split the team event, I guess that means Chen is probably going to do both programs. I hope that is not a bad idea if it turns out that way.

But the dance teams ? Because when you see it actually, every one of them can be 3rd in FD / Well maybe 2nd because France might not make it to the Free programs. The question is in the SD : who might be 3rd ? Well Shibs definitely, the other 2 ? Well H/D maybe but C/B had way too much issues (levels) and for sure they won't do it. So that means that there is a chance that Shibs do both ?

 

[karakaka]

Dance:
1 CAN FRA
3 USA
4 RUS ITA
6 CHN
7 JPN
8 GER
9 KOR ISR (in the event, which seems likely, that T/T cannot compete for Israel)

I think japan could very well be over china in dance; M/R have cleared 60 in the SD in all 3 international competitions this season, and W/L have been under 60 in all 3 of theirs. Plus M/R beat W/L in their one head to head at Skate America.

If that's the case, and everything else is as you have them, JPN will have 25 points (10+8+2+5) going into the free and the USA will have 27 points (9+6+4+8).

In the free, if it's RUS/CAN/USA/CHN/JPN, then I would guess it will be:

Men:
1 JPN
2-4 RUS/CAN/CHN (using Kolyada, Chan, and Jin)
5 USA (if they use Rippon)

Ladies:
1 RUS
2-3 JPN or CAN
4 USA
5 CHN

Pairs:
1 RUS or CAN
3 CHN (assuming they go with Y/Z)
4 USA
5 JPN

Dance:
1 CAN
2 USA
3 RUS
4 JPN
5 CHN

So if Sakamoto/Miyahara beats Osmond/Daleman in the free, Japan will have 10+9+6+7=32(+25=57) and the US will have 6+7+7+9=29(+27=56), and Japan would beat the US. Even if the US gets one more point somewhere (say, Rippon finishing over Jin, or China finishing over Japan in one segment of dance), Japan will win the tiebreakers. So if the US want to really guarantee themselves the bronze, they'll have to use Nathan in the free as well.

 

[GloriaW]

One factor that a “team coach” at the Olympic Games is likely to consider, is reliability under pressure. In this regard, one could debate how some of the potential US skaters stack up, especially in ladies and dance.

Bradie has been “hot” and consistent this year, but her track record prior to this season has been much more mixed. With the known caveat being that, in the past, injuries hampered her training, Bradie has not been “tested under pressure situations” as rigorously as either Mirai or Karen. Both Mirai and Karen have seemed to "find a gear” that enables them to rise to the occasion in front of supportive Nationals crowds. Karen also sure showed her mettle at her first Worlds under immense pressure, last year.

In dance, while the US teams have had close final results, an important task in the Team event will be to beat the Russian team, the toughest challenge would likely come from Bobrova-Soloviev. Between Chock-Bates and Hubbell-Donohue, both teams have actually been very inconsistent, losing leads, at different times and in different ways.

Last season, Evan made a costly error in either the short or free during half of their competitions throughout the season. At Nepela, he missed the twizzles in the free dance, costing them their lead over Bobrova-Soloviev. He also messed up the twizzles during the free dance at Cup of Russia, again costing them their lead over Bobrova-Soloviev. At GPF, Chock's fall during the short dance had them finish 6th. At Worlds, Evan’s twizzle error during the free dance was again costly, enabling Bobrova-Soloviev to pass them. Finally, at World team trophy, Evan’s mistake during the free dance cost them the Free dance, and this time their lead over Weaver-Poje. This season, it would appear their strategy has been to skate (especially twizzles) really carefully, Evan still had a twizzle error in the free dance at one of their grand prix events.

Hubbell-Donohue have a slightly better percentage rate but their mistakes seem much more unexpected and unpredictable, and especially occur during the free dance, and under “first time” pressure. PyeongChang will be their first Olympics. The first time they competed at an ISU championship, Zach fell during footwork doing almost a back somersault. The first time they competed at the Grand prix final in 2015, Zach fell sliding off his boot edge, this time almost doing a side somersault. It cost them their lead over Bobrova-Soloviev. Then of course last season, at every major pressure event, they had a costly mistake. At Grand prix final, Madison lost control during twizzles, and they ended up falling behind Bobrova-Soloviev. At US Nationals, Hubbell fell flat during the free dance and they missed an opportunity then to pass Chock-Bates. At Four Continents, several mistakes including sloppy twizzles from Zach had them fall behind all of the Canadian teams in the free dance. And of course at Worlds, Zach’s twizzle error (this time a near forward somersault) enabled many to pass them, including (you guessed it), Bobrova/Soloviev.

Will be interesting to see how all of these factors get considered. I totally see how people would think it sad for any athlete to miss the chance to compete in the team event. But, how to decide?

 

[tony]

My prediction (SP)

Team Pairs Men ice dance ladies Total
1) OAR 8 8 6 10 32
2) CAN 7 6 9 9 31
3) USA 4 9 8 6 27
4) ITA 5 4 7 8 24
5) JPN 2 10 3 7 22 (17) tie breaker best two aggregated
6) CHN 9 7 2 4 22 (16)
7) FRA 6 1 10 5 22 (16)
8) GER 10 3 5 1 19
9) ISR 3 5 4 2 14
10) KOR 1 2 1 3 7

I am assuming that S/M are competing, but if they decide to skip, then it could be disadvantage to US in the medal race by slotting between OAR, CAN and ITA, this will give these team another relative advantage.

Except China and Japan won’t finish behind Israel in dance. That, combined with the potential of Russia passing Italy in the SD and/or the Japanese lady beating Kostner and Sui/Han winning the pairs short, I think China and Japan are in better shape for the top five.

 

[vireo]

That plus Hubbell & Donohue have been doing better than C&B all year, even if C&B sometimes score marginally higher in the FD.

It would make more sense to use Chock/Bates in the FD based on marginally higher FD scores than to use Hubbell/Donahue in the FD based on marginally higher total scores. In the team event points are awarded for performance in each segment. If two teams are used, it would be best to use the teams with the highest scores in each segment.

The top three U.S. dance teams had two head-to-head meetings this season. Although Hubbell/Donahue eeked out a first place finish at Nationals, they did not win either the short dance or the free dance. They were second among U.S. teams in both segments at the Grand Prix Final as well. In the SD the Shibs were best among the U.S. teams at both GPF and Nationals. Chock/Bates won the free dance at nationals both this year and last and also finished ahead of the Shibs and H/D in the FD at the GPF. If the assignments are split, the Shibutani's should do the the SD and Chock/Bates the FD.

The real question is if they use only 1 dance team which would they use to do both programs. Definitely not C&B,

I question the reasoning here as well. The team whose ability to deliver a competitive score is suspect is the Shibutanis in the FD. They had a very rough performance in the free at the GPF and and a flat free dance with a mistake in a step sequence at Nationals. They finished last of all the teams in the FD at GPF with a score of 109.91. Their FD score at Nationals was 114.60, barely edging Hawayek/Baker for third place in that segment.

Chock/Bates should not be sold short. Of the top three, they are the only team who skated two clean programs in both the GPF and Nationals. They got seasons best scores in both the SD and FD at GPF. I don't think H/D or the Shibs got a SB in either segment. While H/D and the Shibs came out white hot in their grand prixs, they each have each shown some cracks of late. H/D had a mistake on a lift in the FD at GPF and a mistake on the twizzles in the short at Nationals, as well as some issues with levels. The Shibs had trouble in the FD in both events.

If only one team is used either H/D or C/B would be okay. Never thought I'd say it, but the Shibs would be a risky choice because of their FD. Also, while doing the FD in the team event would give them a shot at redemption, a third straight flawed performance might be the death knell for their shot at bronze in the main event.

USFS will do whatever it wants. Nothing would surprise me.