2018 Olympics - Qualification rules for singles, pairs, dance & Team event

[Chemistry66]

^What's the chances of Tobias/Tkachenko getting it in time? Do they have a fast-track option for elite athletes like we do?

Not exactly sure. In that interview, she said she feels more confident about it than she did with Lithuania, so here's hoping for their own sakes they get it in time to compete.

Still think it's not going to matter much in terms of the team comp though, given the small chance of Ladies/Pairs. Only reason Israel's so high is Tobias/Tkachenko + the men.

 

[kwanfan1818]

They will buy him a third grandmother with Jewish roots.

 

[firstflight]

I think the 16 spots for the Olympics qualified from the World Championships will be Canada (3), China (3), Russia (3), Germany (2), France (2) with the final spots being decided between the US & Italy. I think that one of either the US or Italy will qualify two spots to the 2018 World Championships but only one spot for the Olympics.

Am I correct in that France has basically lost two spots given how low their second team placed in the SP? Like there's no way for the combined placement to be 28 or less with the second team finishing 27th and J/C out of contention for the title. Or is the 28 number that I'm thinking of old news and no longer valid?

Oops I see from another thread that teams that don't make the FS automatically get assigned 18th place? What's the rationale behind that?

 

[skatingguy]

Am I correct in that France has basically lost two spots given how low their second team placed in the SP? Like there's no way for the combined placement to be 28 or less with the second team finishing 27th and J/C out of contention for the title. Or is the 28 number that I'm thinking of old news and no longer valid?

Oops I see from another thread that teams that don't make the FS automatically get assigned 18th place? What's the rationale behind that?

The idea behind that is that top 10 gets you two - so if you have a 2nd entry and they are 18th or lower - 10+18=28 - so that is the most points that teams could score and secure 2 spots. As @kwanfan1818 as mentioned in this thread and others, one of the teams that will have 2 entries looks likely to lose one entry to keep the number of couples qualifying to 16 but the ISU regulations don't specify how that is determined. At the moment the French seem to be the odd team out but Canada is only just hanging on to 3 spots and if the Canadian couples drop one spot after the free skate then the discussion is moot and all teams with multiple entries qualify. The free skate is going to be interesting with some really strong teams - Stolbova/Klimov in particular - in the 2nd flight.

 

[kwanfan1818]

The most points used for the calculation of spots is 18, even if the skaters didn't make the free or placed below 18th in the free.

 

[firstflight]

Thanks, both of you. I get it now-- top 10 by your top entry is the key for 2 spots.

 

[skatingguy]

Thanks, both of you. I get it now-- top 10 by your top entry is the key for 2 spots.

Yes, if a country has a skater in the top 10 they will earn at least two spots for the Olympics/Worlds. If a country has two or more entries that country can also earn two spots by having a total of less than 28 - 11+17, 12+16, or 13+15 or any other combination where the total is less than 28.

 

[skatingguy]

Olympic Team Event Qualifying Standings - Updated to include the 2017 World Championships
Rank Country Total (Rank Change, Total Change) (Men, Ladies, Pairs, Ice Dance)

1 Canada 3823 (+1, 889) (787, 1080, 756, 1200)

2 Russian Federation 3715 (-1, 599) (756, 1200, 972, 787)

3 United States of America 3183 (0, 411) (840, 875, 496, 972)

4 People’s Republic of China 3064 (+1, 781) (972, 446, 1200, 446)

5 Japan 2727 (0, 444) (1200, 840, 325, 362)

6 France 2673 (-2, 240) (362, 551, 680, 1080)

7 Italy 2219 (0, 50) (237, 709, 517, 756)

8 Germany 1944 (0, 324) (325, 325, 1080, 214)

9 Republic of Korea 1545 (0, 0) (328, 551, 264, 402)

10 Israel 1337 (0, 0) (551, 0, 174, 612)

11 Spain 1259 (0, 35) (875, 44, 103, 237)

12 Australia 1221 (0, 0) (293, 214, 500, 214)

13 Belgium 1058 (0, 0) (612, 446, 0, 0)

14 Czech Republic 1038 (0, 0) (264, 113, 446, 215)

15 Kazakhstan 764 (+13, 362) (247, 517, 0, 0)

16 Great Britain 719 (-1, 0) (173, 140, 214, 192)

17 Ukraine 678 (-1, 0) (214, 102, 0, 362)

18 Slovakia 669 (-1, 0) (0, 496, 0, 173)

19 Georgia 579 (-1, 0) (496, 0, 0, 83)

20 Latvia 577 (-1, 0) (446, 131, 0, 0)

21 Finland 532 (-1, 0) (83, 293, 0, 156)

22 Sweden 530 (-1, 0) (293, 237, 0, 0)

23 Armenia 492 (-1, 0) (102, 264, 0, 126)

24 Hungary 470 (-1, 0) (0, 402, 0, 68)

25 Austria 454 (-1, 0) (0, 92, 362, 0)

26 Denmark 446 (-1, 0) (0, 0, 0, 446)

26 Uzbekistan 446 (-1, 0) (446, 0, 0, 0)

28 Belarus 438 (-1, 0) (0, 0, 325, 113)

29 Poland 402 (-1, 0) (0, 0, 0, 402)

30 Turkey 348 (0, 0) (0, 55, 0, 293)

31 Hong Kong – China 307 (0, 0) (92, 215, 0, 0)

32 Estonia 284 (0, 0) (92, 192, 0, 0)

33 Chinese Taipei 282 (0, 0) (126, 156, 0, 0)

34 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 275 (--, 275) (0, 0, 275, 0)

35 Philippines 214 (-1, 0) (214, 0, 0, 0)

36 Croatia 192 (-1, 0) (0, 0, 192, 0)

36 Malaysia 192 (-1, 0) (192, 0, 0, 0)

38 Switzerland 156 (-1, 0) (156, 0, 0, 0)

39 Norway 149 (-1, 0) (75, 74, 0, 0)

40 Lithuania 140 (-1, 0) (0, 0, 0, 140)

41 Singapore 113 (-1, 0) (0, 113, 0, 0)

42 Mexico 75 (-1, 0) (0, 75, 0, 0)

 

[Braulio]

So it seems like this will be the teams, or it will take a lot to change any of the last 2 spots, I think Korea and Israel will keep those

 

[misskarne]

Come on Team Australia!

 

[skatingguy]

So the team standings are only one aspect of the qualification process - the other is earning spots in each discipline or at least 3 disciplines and using the extra athlete quota to get the fourth.
So far Canada, China, France, Russia, and the US have earned entries in each discipline so they're in.
Add Germany and Italy who have earned entries in 3 disciplines.
And because their are lots of extra athlete quotas left we'll add Korea.
That leaves two spots. Japan should definitely take one if they can get either a pairs or ice dance entry at Nebelhorn. Then the question becomes who gets that final spot. Australia definitely has a chance if they can earn ladies and pairs entries - which they were pretty close to getting at Worlds - ice dance seems highly unlikely unless one of their couples makes a huge improvement during the summer. The Czech Republic might have a chance if they earn a spot in pairs and pull out a miracle in either Ladies or Ice Dance. Israel needs to earn a spot in the pairs event, because they don't have a ladies skater who could be competitive and given that they didn't have a pairs entry in the Worlds I'm wondering whether they will have a chance. I'm not sure whether we got an answer as to why Cherniavskaia/Krasnopolski weren't at Worlds or whether their breakup has been confirmed. I'm sure someone will set me straight on that. Spain might be a possibility if they can get a ladies skater but given the results this season that seems unlikely. Given the current standings and the likelihood that Israel and Spain won't be able to earn entries in 3 disciplines I think Australia has the inside track if they earn those Pairs and Ladies entries.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Korea only has earned spots in Ladies. They still have to qualify in at least two more disciplines at Nebelhorn to be eligible for the Team Event. (They should have a good shot in Men and Dance.) Only then can they use the Additional Athletes Quota for a missed fourth discipline for the TE. But if they don't qualify at least three, they don't get to participate in the TE.

Korea can use the Additional Athletes Quota for the Team Event, if they qualify in three/four disciplines in Helsinki (Ladies) and Nebelhorn (two of Men, Pairs, and Dance). All Team Event allocations are done first. Likely worst case scenario is that Italy uses one for Men, German uses two for Dance, japan uses two for Pairs, Australia surpasses Korea in points and uses two for Dance, for seven, leaving three spots, which is enough for Korea for one discipline.

If Korea doesn't qualify for three disciplines and the Team Event, then they can only use any those spots left in the Additional Athletes Quota after the TE spots have been claimed. If, for example, the worst case scenario came to pass, with seven spots claimed -- not likely, but mathematically possible -- and Korea couldn't qualify Pairs and Dance, they would have to decide when to send Pairs or Dance to the individual events, with only three spots left in the allocation.

Muramoto/Reed should qualify in Ice Dance at Nebelhorn. Suto/Boudreau-Audet have a chance. It doesn't matter if Boudreau-Audet has citizenship: once S/B-A qualify the spot, Japan can send any teams with citizenship and minimums, like Takahashi/Shibata or Suzaki/Kihara (if any are still together).

I don't see Israel having much of a chance of qualifying for Pairs even if they end up pairing Krasnopolshi with someone else: with four spots, there are too many strong teams in the running, like Duskova/Bidar, Ryom/Kim, and Alexandrovskaya/Windsor, who made the FS in Helsinki. If Alexandrovskaya/Windsor qualify a spot, which is very possible, if Alexandrovskaya isn't granted citizenship, Australia can send Stephens/Dodds, if they can earn .32 in the SP at an obscure Fall competition, if the minimums don't change.

Both of the CZE Ice Dance women are Canadians, although Kuzmichova might have/get citizenship through ancestry, but they look out of range, even if the Danes have to throw a spot back because she can't get citizenship. Unless Lane and Razgulajevs can pull off a miracle with them in the next five months.

 

[skatingguy]

It certainly gets complicated with the use of additional athlete quotas - I would expect nothing less from the ISU.

 

[misskarne]

If Alexandrovskaya/Windsor qualify a spot, which is very possible, if Alexandrovskaya isn't granted citizenship, Australia can send Stephens/Dodds, if they can earn .32 in the SP at an obscure Fall competition, if the minimums don't change.

waaaaaaaaaaaaaah, you had to remind me that we were only three tenths away from having two pairs at 4CC

Last I heard, Katia's citizenship was on track for June or July, which should be plenty of time. I imagine being able to throw the JWC title into the mix is helping too.

 

[kwanfan1818]

waaaaaaaaaaaaaah, you had to remind me that we were only three tenths away from having two pairs at 4CC

Will Australia send it's Olympic-bound Pairs team to Taipei for 4C's before the Olympics. Whether or not they do, I hope Stephens/Dodds get their minimum this Fall and get to Taipei.

 

[Vagabond]

Ryom/Kim

I would be shocked if North Korea sent any athletes to an Olympic competition in South Korea.

 

[morqet]

I would be shocked if North Korea sent any athletes to an Olympic competition in South Korea.

Actually, the signs have been recently that they want to participate: http://www.insidethegames.biz/artic...st-sign-yet-of-pyeongchang-2018-participation Ryom/Kim certainly deserve to be there.

 

[Vagabond]

That's what they always say. It hasn't happened yet.

 

[fan]

I would be shocked if North Korea sent any athletes to an Olympic competition in South Korea.

If they go, they'll be chained to their handlers other than practise/competition, to ensure they don't defect

 

[skatingguy]

I'm sure that at least one of the handlers will be credentialed as a coach so they can keep an eye on the skaters even while they're on the practice ice.

 

[skatingguy]

I recreated my spreadsheet on Google Docs - not sure why I didn't think of this earlier - I saw @thvudragon post and realized I could post the spreadsheet this way. I left the entries in the individual disciplines they way they are now even though we know that Denmark won't use its Ice Dance entry and Uzbekistan won't use it's men's entry.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nK9TkQRsMsZhcCnvFPWMnflS2gwNd9PTbt5KPTX8XC4/edit#gid=0

 

[thvu]

@skatingguy , you just need to change your shading permissions to "everyone."

 

[skatingguy]

@skatingguy , you just need to change your shading permissions to "everyone."

Thanks, didn't see that setting.

 

[jiejie]

If Jun Hwa Cha is moving to senior next season, I'd be pretty confident he can grab a Men's spot for Korea at Nebelhorn. Min/Gamelin might be able to pull it off for Dance.

 

[Debbie S]

In the team event, is starting order within each discipline determined by world ranking or by finish at Worlds this year? Or is it a random draw?

 

[skatingguy]

In the team event, is starting order within each discipline determined by world ranking or by finish at Worlds this year? Or is it a random draw?

Here is the relevant regulations regarding starting order for the Team event.
3) STARTING ORDER
The participating skaters/couples will be listed according to their ISU World Standing placement at time of the Team event. The starting order in the Short Program or Short Dance segment will be the reverse order of the ISU World Standing placements. In the case of any tie, there will be a draw to determine who skates first. Skaters/Couples, not having earned any ISU World Standing points will be listed at the bottom of the ISU World Standing list in NOC/ISU Member order. There will be a separate draw between those skaters/couples of the respective discipline with no World Standing points to determine the starting order. For Free Skating/Free Dance the starting order will be the reverse order of the respective result of each discipline after the previous segment.

 

[Coco]

Is it for sure going to be the first event of the Games?

 

[skatingguy]

Is it for sure going to be the first event of the Games?

Yes, ticket sales have already started.
https://tickets.pyeongchang2018.com/PriceInfo

 

[StitchMonkey]

Korea only has earned spots in Ladies. They still have to qualify in at least two more disciplines at Nebelhorn to be eligible for the Team Event. (They should have a good shot in Men and Dance.) Only then can they use the Additional Athletes Quota for a missed fourth discipline for the TE. But if they don't qualify at least three, they don't get to participate in the TE.

Korea can use the Additional Athletes Quota for the Team Event, if they qualify in three/four disciplines in Helsinki (Ladies) and Nebelhorn (two of Men, Pairs, and Dance). All Team Event allocations are done first. Likely worst case scenario is that Italy uses one for Men, German uses two for Dance, japan uses two for Pairs, Australia surpasses Korea in points and uses two for Dance, for seven, leaving three spots, which is enough for Korea for one discipline.

If Korea doesn't qualify for three disciplines and the Team Event, then they can only use any those spots left in the Additional Athletes Quota after the TE spots have been claimed. If, for example, the worst case scenario came to pass, with seven spots claimed -- not likely, but mathematically possible -- and Korea couldn't qualify Pairs and Dance, they would have to decide when to send Pairs or Dance to the individual events, with only three spots left in the allocation.

But they are the host nation... i thought the host nation gets automatic slots, or at least some automatic slots... so won't they have skaters in all events... thus have skater for the team event? It just gets complicated.

 

[Seerek]

If Jun Hwa Cha is moving to senior next season, I'd be pretty confident he can grab a Men's spot for Korea at Nebelhorn. Min/Gamelin might be able to pull it off for Dance.

Which brings up the question how the federations will determine the Nebelhorn entrant when there are arguably multiple options (e.g. Paniot or Pavlov, Peltonen or Lindfors, Craine or Han).

In the case of Cha, I say he indeed be sent even if there is a Junior Grand Prix conflict.