Worlds 2019 Men Top 5

[haribobo]

Who shall make top 5?

 

[Vagabond]

Who shall make top 5?

And which ones will bomb so badly they won't make the Free Skate?

 

[briancoogaert]

I really hope : Uno, Chen, Hanyu, Kolyada and JH Cha

 

[olympic]

For me, 1-4 is easy: Chen and the Japanese dynamic duo, w/ Boyang as the primary dark horse.

No. 5 is a little trickier could be anyone including Messing, Samarin, Zhou and Brown, but I chose Zhou. He's been really grinding it out lately, but a close no. 2 would be Messing. Both have uneven jumps: Zhou gets URs and Messing's jump technique can be a little wild, leading to off-balance landings and falls. Samarin has some stability working in his favor, but his LP choreography is absolutely a mess. Yet, I see him getting some Russian politick behind him as the steadiest Russian man, which would help him w/ a higher finish. IDK about Brown: Introducing a quad is tricky and sets himself up to lose ground if he falls. I'm surprised that people are selecting Cha for no. 5, but then again, if he sets himself up w/ a great SP, he puts himself in a position to make it happen. Kolyada could be anywhere from no. 4 to no. 10. When he skates well, he can be very close to the podium, but I think Chen and Uno have a fall cushion on him even w/ good skates. I saw a twitter post from a fan that states he sometimes lands 4Z in practice, but I don't think he has improved his chances to land one in a high-pressure competition, so I don't actually anticipate him being on the podium like last year.

Just my $.02. I haven't thought a lot about this or anything...

 

[tripleflutz]

For me, 1-4 is easy: Chen and the Japanese dynamic duo, w/ Boyang as the primary dark horse.

I think only the first 3 are obvious. Boyang I would give the best chance, but still a very small chance, of slipping in for a medal over 1 of the 3 favorites. I dont think he is safe at all to make the top 5 though.

 

[olympic]

I think only the first 3 are obvious. Boyang I would give the best chance, but still a very small chance, of slipping in for a medal over 1 of the 3 favorites. I dont think he is safe at all to make the top 5 though.

If you look at the men right around Boyang, he is the most experienced and probably steadiest among Zhou, Messing, Brown and Cha. He even outshines Samarin in PCS, so I think he holds a clear edge for no. 4

 

[tripleflutz]

If you look at the men right around Boyang, he is the most experienced and probably steadiest among Zhou, Messing, Brown and Cha. He even outshines Samarin in PCS, so I think he holds a clear edge for no. 4

I dont know. The last couple years he has become more erratic. His PCS have improved, but he also scores lower than almost every noteable guy in GOE which contradicts a lot of his base value advantage (which isnt so big anymore).

I think the other 2 (not Samarin) Russian guys have a good chance of putting atleast 1 guy in the top 5, but they are so erratic. I have a feeling either of them skating well will wind up beating Boyang though, especialy Kolyada. It will be funny to see what order the 3 Russian guys finish in, if all skate well Samarin will definitely be the lowest though and Kolyada definitely the highest.

 

[olympic]

I dont know. The last couple years he has become more erratic. His PCS have improved, but he also scores lower than almost every noteable guy in GOE which contradicts a lot of his base value advantage (which isnt so big anymore).

I think the other 2 (not Samarin) Russian guys have a good chance of putting atleast 1 guy in the top 5, but they are so erratic. I have a feeling either of them skating well will wind up beating Boyang though, especialy Kolyada. It will be funny to see what order the 3 Russian guys finish in, if all skate well Samarin will definitely be the lowest though and Kolyada definitely the highest.

Kovtun is more disaster than on-point and Kolyada is somewhat more consistent than Kovtun, but that is not saying much

 

[tripleflutz]

Kovtun is more disaster than on-point and Kolyada is somewhat more consistent than Kovtun, but that is not saying much

True but Samarin is just as inconsistent as they are really, and has the lowest scoring potential of the three, a ton lower than Kolyada. Just surprised you seemed to be singling him out as the clear top Russian after only placing highest at 1 event. Like you yourself said even jumping bean Boyang beats him in PCS. The only way he will be the highest placing Russian is if he has another unusually good outing like Europeans or Nationals last year, Kolyada continues to be a disaester, and Kovtun skates nowhere near as well as Nationals.

 

[Dobre]

If you look at the men right around Boyang, he is the most experienced and probably steadiest among Zhou, Messing, Brown and Cha. He even outshines Samarin in PCS, so I think he holds a clear edge for no. 4

Cha has been quite steady this season. He has three 3rds and two 2nds, including bronze at the GPF. He got Amano'ed at 4CCs, but otherwise all very steady results. He usually does UR his quads, though. Boyang is more volatile but his jumps were around at 4CCs. With his difficulty, that'll count for a lot if he has a good skate. Higher risk. Higher reward among this group of guys.

 

[olympic]

Cha has been quite steady this season. He has three 3rds and two 2nds, including bronze at the GPF. He got Amano'ed at 4CCs, but otherwise all very steady results. He usually does UR his quads, though. Boyang is more volatile but his jumps were around at 4CCs. With his difficulty, that'll count for a lot if he has a good skate. Higher risk. Higher reward among this group of guys.

Boyang's SB is 10 points higher than Cha's SB, and Boyang has not only a lot more experience but seems to know how to peak. I think Cha is immensely talented and he has had a good Fall, but 4CCs show that he still has a way to go. That is the reason that I think Boyang will end up doing better at Worlds.

True but Samarin is just as inconsistent as they are really, and has the lowest scoring potential of the three, a ton lower than Kolyada. Just surprised you seemed to be singling him out as the clear top Russian after only placing highest at 1 event. Like you yourself said even jumping bean Boyang beats him in PCS. The only way he will be the highest placing Russian is if he has another unusually good outing like Europeans or Nationals last year, Kolyada continues to be a disaester, and Kovtun skates nowhere near as well as Nationals.

I picked Samarin because he has medaled on the GP circuit, the really lifted himself up at Euros, which shows an upward trend and makes him Russia's best hope for Worlds. Kolyada's scoring potential means nothing if he can't deliver which happens quite often, and really what are the chances of Kovtun skating well?

.

 

[Firedancer]

Chen, Uno, Hanyu, Jin and Cha

 

[tripleflutz]

I picked Samarin because he has medaled on the GP circuit, the really lifted himself up at Euros, which shows an upward trend and makes him Russia's best hope for Worlds. Kolyada's scoring potential means nothing if he can't deliver which happens quite often, and really what are the chances of Kovtun skating well?

I would agree if Samarin were consistent, but he is really just as inconsistent as those other 2. He has more bad outings than good ones really. He just happened to have one of his rare good outings in his last outing, and at the same venue Kovtun and Kolyada had extremely bad outings. So IMO all 3 are super inconsistent and scoring potential goes as Kolyada >> Kovtun > Samarin. I guess we will have to see what happens at worlds, will be interesting to see which order the 3 Russian guys finish in amongst other things, whether any of them can sneak in for a medal (probably only an in form Kolyada is even capable of that unless the event is a bad splatfest), and if they can retain their 3 spots. And will the U.S be able to retain their 3 spots (IMO much more likely than Russia but still not certain, especialy if Chan doesnt win gold).