USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for the 2026 Olympic Winter Games

[Sylvia]

I thought it might be useful to create a separate thread early - thanks for the heads up @ice coverage:

U.S. Figure Skating Athlete Selection Procedures 2026 Olympic Winter Games
Publication Date: January 21, 2025 22 pages

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2026%20FSK%20Athlete%20Selection%20Procedures%20FINAL%20OLY.pdf

"Athletes being considered for nomination to the Games will be evaluated on their performance at any of the
events on the calendar listed below starting with the 2025 U.S. Figure Skating Championships."

 

[Kiki5375]

So did anyone start calculating?

I did, but I am not sure if I got everything right. My ranking so far after 2 Challengers and 1 NQS and last years points

Jimmy Ma 468,29
Tomoki Hiwatashi 401,10
Ilia Malinin 240
Jacob Sanchez 211,31
Andrew Torgashew 88,59
Jason Brown 75
Camden Pulkinen 30
Maxim Naumov 0
Lucas Broussard 0

I didn't add a 2nd challenger score for Jacob Sanchez yet ((CS1 + 80% of CS 1) / 2 *0,75) because I already saw that he will take part in Nepela Memorial next week. So I will wait for the real CS2 score instead of the 80% replacement score.

Feel free to correct me if you got different numbers

 

[Karen-W]

So did anyone start calculating?

I did, but I am not sure if I got everything right. My ranking so far after 2 Challengers and 1 NQS and last years points

Jimmy Ma 468,29
Tomoki Hiwatashi 401,10
Ilia Malinin 240
Jacob Sanchez 211,31
Andrew Torgashew 88,59
Jason Brown 75
Camden Pulkinen 30
Maxim Naumov 0
Lucas Broussard 0

I didn't add a 2nd challenger score for Jacob Sanchez yet ((CS1 + 80% of CS 1) / 2 *0,75) because I already saw that he will take part in Nepela Memorial next week. So I will wait for the real CS2 score instead of the 80% replacement score.

Feel free to correct me if you got different numbers

Jacob Sanchez is 290.55 per the formulas on the USFS' spreadsheet. You neglected to include the CS/Sr B Avg of 105.66 for his points. Also, Nepela Memorial is 3 weekends from now (this week is Lombardia, the following week the only FS competition internationally is the Olympic Qualifying Event in Beijing, the week after that are both Nebelhorn & Nepela).

I have 30.00 for Torgashev because I haven't included any of the NQS scores in my table yet as it is ongoing (I also don't think I was expecting any of the main contenders to compete in any NQS events since most of them have byes to Nats).

 

[Kiki5375]

Yes I must admit I was too lazy to figure out how much Jacob get's for 2nd CS if he has only one score yet.
Torgy got 234,35 at Golden Midwest NQS which goes into calculation as 58,59. Compared to the 30 he gets for Nationals it's not too bad and the competition was on his practice rink so he didn't have to travel for it at all.
Max might do the same since there is one NQS in Norwood in October but it's also very close to the French GP. I don't know how far ahead he will fly to Europe
The ranking will tell more after everyone has at least one score this season but I just like the maths and guessing game

[td]

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[Karen-W]

Yes I must admit I was too lazy to figure out how much Jacob get's for 2nd CS if he has only one score yet.
Torgy got 234,35 at Golden Midwest NQS which goes into calculation as 58,59. Compared to the 30 he gets for Nationals it's not too bad and the competition was on his practice rink so he didn't have to travel for it at all.
Max might do the same since there is one NQS in Norwood in October but it's also very close to the French GP. I don't know how far ahead he will fly to Europe
The ranking will tell more after everyone has at least one score this season but I just like the maths and guessing game

Most of the skaters/teams who have international assignments are going to earn way more points from those competitions than they will by competing in the NQS. What I found last season, when I first began tracking points with the new USFS selection pool calculation table was that the full picture didn't really settle in until after the GPF/Challengers wrapped up in early December.

 

[Kiki5375]

how many Challengers can each Skater do? I noticed that Hiwatashi will take part in his 3rd challenger this season. Very busy man but do all count for average score or just the 2 best?

 

[kwanfan1818]

As the selection document says in Appendix B, where all of the inputs are listed, there are two values for Challenger Series:

Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International
Highest

Highest score with a factor of 1

Challenger Series/Senior B/Junior International
Average

Average score with a factor of .75 (if athlete/team has only one event
in this category 80% of their first event score will be added to the
second event column to determine an average)

As the Challenger Series Announcement says, skaters can enter a max of three/discipline.

 

[Kiki5375]

I have another question. Was the Ice Challenge in Austria a Senior B event? And if so my 2nd question: Every skater can bring 3 of those into the calculation. Max is assigned to Tallinn and Zagreb and he already did Lombardia and Ice Challenge. That would be 4 Challenger/Senior B (?) events. Do the best 3 count for average or only the 3 challengers since Ice Challenge would be the lowest level event?
I just love doing the maths

 

[Karen-W]

I have another question. Was the Ice Challenge in Austria a Senior B event? And if so my 2nd question: Every skater can bring 3 of those into the calculation. Max is assigned to Tallinn and Zagreb and he already did Lombardia and Ice Challenge. That would be 4 Challenger/Senior B (?) events. Do the best 3 count for average or only the 3 challengers since Ice Challenge would be the lowest level event?
I just love doing the maths

Only the 2 highest scores from Challengers/Sr Bs count - they are in the same category on the calculation table for senior skaters.

 

[Karen-W]

Okay, so I'm still in training mode at work with a fair amount of downtime, so I emailed the Calculation Table to myself and will give a quick primer about how the Calculation Table formulas work:

Here is the entire Calculation Table for two of our Pairs teams - Chan/Howe and Efimova/Mitrofanov -

Factors/ Amount to add

4​

3​

1.25​

1.25​

1​

0.75​

0.5​

0.25​

0.5​

12​

10​

5​

6​

3​

8​

4​

2​

15​

Skater

Level

Age Eligible

ISU Min Score (91/75/63)

2024 U.S. Nats

GPF

GP/ JGP 1

GP/ JGP 2

GP/ JPG Highest

GP/ JGP Avg

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 1

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 2

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Highest

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Avg

Pairs Final (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

NQS Score (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

Non-USFS Funded Event

2025 Worlds 1

2025 Worlds 2 or 3

2025 Worlds 4,5,6,7,8

2025 Four Continents 1,2,3

2025 Four Continents 4,5

2025 Junior Worlds 1,2,3

2025 U.S. Champs 1

2025 U.S. Champs 2, 3

Prev Yr Final Number

Total

Chan, Emily/Howe, Spencer

S

Y

Y

187.40​

187.40​

93.70​

183.22​

193.70​

193.70​

188.46​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0​

686.42​

Efimova, Alisa/Mitrofanov, Misha

S

Y

Y

193.00​

193.00​

96.50​

193.54​

193.79​

193.79​

193.67​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

YES

YES

YES

12​

880.91​

At the top of the table there is a row called "Factors/Amount to add" -

For the current season, the "Factors" is the weight each type of competition is given in the final calculation.
US Nationals - the skater/team's final score is multiplied by 4
GPF/JGPF - the skater/team's final score is multiplied by 3
GP/JGP 1 and GP/JGP 2 - these scores are only input as raw data that determine the scores used in the GP/JGP Highest and GP/JGP Avg fields; if a skater/team does not have a GP/JGP 2 score then their score from GP/JGP 1 is multiplied by .8 to produce a score for the GP/JGP 2 field
GP/JGP Highest and GP/JGP Avg - the scores are multiplied by 1.25
CS/Sr B/Jr Int 1 and CS/Sr B/Jr Int 2 - same situation as the GP/JGP 1 and GP/JGP 2 fields - they are raw data & there are only two fields, so you would take the two highest CS/Sr B scores for skaters/teams to include in these fields
CS/Sr B/Jr Int Highest - the score is multiplied by 1
CS/Sr B/Jr Int Avg - the score is multiplied by .75
Sectional/NQS Score - I'm not sure if these fields are actually used for Pairs & Ice Dance; I'm operating under the assumption they are, but these scores are also multiplied by .5 and .25 respectively, so they have a minimal impact on the overall Calculation Table regardless of discipline.
Non-USFS Funded Event - this applies to juniors and novices as it seems the USFS has chosen to fund all of the seniors who have been sent out to compete this season; the best score from this category is multiplied by .5 and, again, has minimal impact on the overall Calculation Table.

For last season, the "Amount" to add is a formula within a formula. Each competition is split into various levels and those levels are awarded points if the skater/team achieves that level at that competition. The total points for each skater/team is then multiplied by 15 and THAT number is added to the Calculation Table total. To complete this section, all one has to do is type "YES" in the correct field and the formula for the "Prev Yr Final Number" will calculate the total points based on which fields have a "YES" in them.

Worlds 2025 1st - 12 points
Worlds 2025 2nd or 3rd place - 10 points
Worlds 2025 4th through 8th place - 5 points
4CCs 2025 1st, 2nd or 3rd place - 6 points
4CCs 2025 4th or 5th place - 3 points
Jr Worlds 2025 1st, 2nd or 3rd place - 8 points
US Nats 2025 1st place - 4 points
US Nats 2025 2nd or 3rd place - 2 points (I didn't even realize until just now that pewter at Nats gets bupkus in this formula, lol)

The Selection Doc states that the following skaters/teams will be included in the Selection Pool:
1) Top 5 from the Selection Pool Calculation
2) Top 5 from 2026 US Nationals
3) Top 10 from 2025 Worlds (Efimova/Mitrofanov & Kam/O'Shea)
4) Olympic Medalist from Individual Pairs Event (n/a)
5) Top 24 from Current Season Senior World Rankings

So, it is possible to be in the Top 5 from the Selection Pool Calculation but finish outside of the Top 5 at Nationals. Right now, with another 4 weeks of competition left in the fall season, the Total Calculations for most of the skaters/teams in contention is still pretty fluid. We'll have a better idea of where things stand after the GPF/JGPF/Golden Spin weekend, but Nationals is going to play a major factor in the outcome regardless of how things shake out for the fall season.

 

[Allskate]

I don't want to discourage @Karen-W from doing calculations; that's her happy place. I do think that they could at least theoretically come into play, but aren't the likely contenders going to be in the pool anyway?

As mentioned, the selection pool also includes the top five athletes/teams at the 2026 U.S. Figure Skating Championships, top ten at the 2025 World Championships, any athlete that has medaled at a previous Olympic Games in their discipline (hi Shibs!), and any athlete/team in the current season’s Top 24 in World Rankings. So, how many skaters who have a realistic chance of actually getting chosen for the team (using the criteria in Section 7) need to worry about the calculations? Is this once again a discussion of how important Nationals will be for some of the men and pairs?

Worlds alone puts Ilia, Jason, Alysa, Isabeau, Amber, C&B, C&P (assuming citizenship), G&P, and K&O into the selection pool. (E&M also would be in the pool if they somehow miraculously solve the citizenship barrier.)

Then add in the Shibs as previous medalists.

Jacob and Torgy are currently in the top 24, though that may very well change, especially for Torgy, who is 24. Sarah is in the top 24, and she and Bradie could potentially end up there. Realistically, Sarah and Bradie's chances of making the team are slim, and I can't imagine that they would be named to the team if they are not in the top 5 at Nationals. I think that any other ice dance team with a shot at the Olympic team (who hasn't already qualified through Worlds or prior Olympics) will be in the World top 24 and/or top 5 at Nationals.

And, realistically, any other men or pairs need to be in the top 5 at Nationals to have any shot at making the Olympic team.

 

[Karen-W]

I don't want to discourage @Karen-W from doing calculations; that's her happy place. I do think that they could at least theoretically come into play, but aren't the likely contenders going to be in the pool anyway?

Last season, there were a couple of skaters who made it into the Selection Pool via the Calculation Table. My impression was that it impacted the Junior Worlds Selection Pool more than it impacted the Senior ISU Championships Selection Pool, but last season was the first season they went with this new table, so who knows if what happened last year will happen again.

 

[Allskate]

Last season, there were a couple of skaters who made it into the Selection Pool via the Calculation Table. My impression was that it impacted the Junior Worlds Selection Pool more than it impacted the Senior ISU Championships Selection Pool, but last season was the first season they went with this new table, so who knows if what happened last year will happen again.

Maybe it will make a difference for Jr. Worlds. I'm not suggesting that you refrain from the joy of doing the calculations. I just don't think they will make a difference for choosing the Olympic team.

 

[Karen-W]

Maybe it will make a difference for Jr. Worlds. I'm not suggesting that you refrain from the joy of doing the calculations. I just don't think they will make a difference for choosing the Olympic team.

Oh, I don't think so either. I enjoy keeping track of it & doing the calculations but it was pretty clear last season that the Int'l Committee has the ability to select whichever team they want once the Selection Pool has been created.

 

[tangerine dream]

oops, nothing to see here

 

[Kiki5375]

The calculation sheet says "CS/Sr B / Jr int"
What is Sr B ? Was Ice Challenge Austria a Sr B and goes into that calculation?

 

[Karen-W]

The calculation sheet says "CS/Sr B / Jr int"
What is Sr B ? Was Ice Challenge Austria a Sr B and goes into that calculation?

Any competition with senior categories that isn't a GP or a Challenger is a Sr B. Ice Challenge, Tayside Trophy, Robin Cousins Cup, Bolero Cup, Mezzaluna Cup, Warsaw Cup (Sr Pairs) and Santa Claus Cup are all Sr Bs. Lake Placid Ice Dance Int'l is a non-USFS funded competition for the purposes of the Calculation Table - it doesn't qualify for Byes to Nats.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Justin Dillon was on The Runthrough Friday, and he said the third U.S. pairs spot could still happen because “some different things are still in play.” I thought that ship had sailed no matter what happened - if another country gave up theiir spot for example.

He also said the athletes’ placements at events are what is considered and not their total scores. I haven’t read the official criteria (I deal with enough numbers at work every day), but from the discussions here I thought the scores mattered? He used Isabeau’s France placement as an example of how even though she got 220, she finished fourth so that’s what gets logged.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Justin Dillon was on The Runthrough Friday, and he said the third U.S. pairs spot could still happen because “some different things are still in play.” I thought that ship had sailed no matter what happened - if another country gave up theiir spot for example.

Well, it hasn’t sailed in the sense that the US didn’t skip the qualifier or get disqualified or something. But 3 countries would have to return spots and no one has reason to believe that is happening.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Well, it hasn’t sailed in the sense that the US didn’t skip the qualifier or get disqualified or something. But 3 countries would have to return spots and no one has reason to believe that is happening.

The fact that he even brought it up surprises me then.

 

[Karen-W]

Well, it hasn’t sailed in the sense that the US didn’t skip the qualifier or get disqualified or something. But 3 countries would have to return spots and no one has reason to believe that is happening.

Actually, there is a reason to still hold out hope it may happen.

1) UZB spot - that spot is almost certainly being relinquished. Theoretically, it is POSSIBLE they'll find a way for the rumored Geynish/Zandron partnership to debut at Challenge Cup in January and maybe earn the CTES mins, but I don't see how as he last competed with Brooke McIntosh for Spain in February 2025. The ISU Exec Council could waive the 1-year waiting period for him to compete in January, but I don't think that's very likely, so France should pick up that spot.

2) AUS spot - we're still waiting on Anastasia Golubeva to receive her Australian citizenship, plus there are injury rumors for them. They were entered to compete at Warsaw Cup next week but withdrew. They're still entered, at this time, for Golden Spin, but we'll see if that holds. Even if they do recover from injury, there is still the question of her citizenship. If that doesn't come through by the end of January, then UKR could pick up that spot. One has to think UKR will use that spot no matter how injured Holichenko/Darenskiy are, but they also haven't competed since Skate to Milano, so who knows?

3) NED spot - Danilova/Tsiba are on a well-documented quest to earn the minimum score required by the Dutch Olympic Committee and they've come up short at all of their competitions so far this fall. The Dutch OC's deadline is Jan 1, so Golden Spin will be their last chance, though it's possible the deadline could be extended to include Europeans or that the Dutch OC will relent on the score requirement (173.89) since DanTsi finished 15th at Worlds which was just 1 spot below the 14th place required for automatic nomination to the Dutch Olympic team. But, if the Dutch OC doesn't relent, then the USA would be in line to pick up that spot should the other two also be relinquished.

Is there any REALISTIC reason to believe the USA will still get that 3rd spot? No. But there is still a slender thread of reason to think it may happen.

 

[RoseRed]

Wasn't there something in the rules that sounded like only Feds with no spots could pick up relinquished spots? I remember there being some discussion of that after the fall event.

I can't find a post with the actual rule/wording, but I did find this from September:

Yes, with a caveat that unused spots are reallocated to NOCs not yet qualified and not yet REPRESENTED. So, any country that was going for a 2nd or 3rd additional spot is not eligible for one of the unused spots when they're reallocated.


Thanks - I'll edit my post above and include that information about the 2nd SUI spot.

That would mean the US isn't in line to pick up a 3rd pairs spot at all. But if Dillon is making that comment, maybe that's not going to apply (always possible with the ISU that they didn't update the wording from when all additional spots came from worlds or something).

 

[Karen-W]

Wasn't there something in the rules that sounded like only Feds with no spots could pick up relinquished spots? I remember there being some discussion of that after the fall event.

I can't find a post with the actual rule/wording, but I did find this from September:


That would mean the US isn't in line to pick up a 3rd pairs spot at all. But if Dillon is making that comment, maybe that's not going to apply (always possible with the ISU that they didn't update the wording from when all additional spots came from worlds or something).

That was the discussion but the ISU's official communication after Skate to Milano has the USA as the 3rd alternate for the pairs spots.

 

[RoseRed]

That was the discussion but the ISU's official communication after Skate to Milano has the USA as the 3rd alternate for the pairs spots.

Oh okay. So the ISU just didn't manage to write clear rules. That checks out.

 

[Karen-W]

Oh okay. So the ISU just didn't manage to write clear rules. That checks out.

Well, the official Qualification document from the IOC/ISU does state the following:

"Qualification places obtained and not used for the individual events (not the Team Event) by the NOCs, will be filled by stand-by NOCs based on the final result of the designated ISU Figure Skating Qualifying Competition in Beijing, CHN, 17-21 September 2025 for those NOCs not qualified and not yet represented."

So, it seems pretty straightforward and would have therefore excluded the USA from the stand-by list for any pairs spots as well as FRA from the stand-by list for the men where they're listed as 2nd alternate and EST from the stand-by list for the women where they're listed as 3rd alternate. But then when the ISU issued the official communication with the list of stand-by feds all three countries were included. Personally, I think if it does get down to that 3rd alternate spot in pairs the Czech OC & FS fed may have a case to bring to CAS for that spot.

 

[ice coverage]

Justin Dillon was on The Runthrough Friday ...

He also said the athletes’ placements at events are what is considered and not their total scores. I haven’t read the official criteria (I deal with enough numbers at work every day), but from the discussions here I thought the scores mattered? He used Isabeau’s France placement as an example of how even though she got 220, she finished fourth so that’s what gets logged.

According to the USFS selection document, scores are among the things that will be considered:

7.2 DEFINE THE DISCRETIONARY CRITERIA TO BE USED:
To field the most competitive Team, the Selection Committee will take into consideration the criteria set forth below, which includes scores and placements in events, difficulty of the field, performance impact, and head-to-head match ups, to determine the athletes/teams who will have the best chance to win the maximum number of medals at the Games.​

And one of the bullet points in that section is:

The technical elements, program components and total score data derived from protocols after the conclusion of each segment of competition specifically looking at consistency, competitiveness, and trending scores, will be a primary focus on discussing the ranking of the athletes/teams and determining the athletes that will have the most performance impact at the Games​

With all sincere respect to Justin Dillon (Senior Director of Athlete High Performance), he is not on the selection committee.
I have not listened to the Runthrough myself, but maybe his own take (as summarized by TanithandBenFan) on the rules would not necessarily exactly match the official rules of the selection committee?
That said, he and Amanda Will are listed as the two contacts for athletes who have questions about the selection procedures, so I don't know what to think about how the rules will be applied in practice.

The selection document says:

7.3 SELECTION COMMITTEE
The committee that will be responsible for making discretionary selections or other decisions and recommendations directly impacting athletes in the selection process.
Committee Name: U.S. Figure Skating’s International Committee (Singles, Pairs, Ice Dance Discipline Group)
o Chair of the International Committee
o Immediate Past Chair of the International Committee
o One discipline specific National Vice Chair
o Three discipline-specific athlete representatives
o One discipline-specific ISU official
o Two discipline-specific representatives
o ISU Representative (non-voting)​

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Thank you! He starts talking about it around minute 40 of episode 99. Adam asks, “Are you basing this on their placement or on how many points they’ve actually—“ And Justin says,”Placement. So we don’t do it as like total points. That’s something that I kind of think can be argued either way because even in the first GP Isabeau had about 212 points which is fourth to count to get to the Final, but she also has a fourth for the selection criteria. So that’s just one example as we tally all the total results.”

After his pairs comment I don’t have 100% faith in what he’s saying, but I hope he’s on top of things considering his position.

 

[Karen-W]

Thank you! He starts talking about it around minute 40 of episode 99. Adam asks, “Are you basing this on their placement or on how many points they’ve actually—“ And Justin says,”Placement. So we don’t do it as like total points. That’s something that I kind of think can be argued either way because even in the first GP Isabeau had about 212 points which is fourth to count to get to the Final, but she also has a fourth for the selection criteria. So that’s just one example as we tally all the total results.”

After his pairs comment I don’t have 100% faith in what he’s saying, but I hope he’s on top of things considering his position.

That response is a bunch of word salad.

Yes, the criteria does take into consideration placement, but it also factors in depth of the field, which is where Isabeau's score FROM GPdF likely carries more weight than her overall placement. She scored 212.xx there & was 4th. Two weeks later, Bradie scored 195.xx at SCI & was 4th. Which 4th is more valuable by virtue of being in a deeper field? Obviously Isabeau's, but you wouldn't know it if you didn't also consider their scores.

And that isn't a hard concept to explain unless you're an idiot who loves a good word salad to cover up your fundamental stupidity.